Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector saw a significant increase of 3.02% last week, ranking 7th among major industries, with a trading volume accounting for 10.43% of the total market [2][4]. - The report highlights the growing interest in stablecoins and related technologies, particularly in the context of recent regulatory developments in Hong Kong [6][26]. - The launch of xAI's Grok-4, which includes advanced AI capabilities, is expected to drive further innovation in the sector [19][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3500-point mark, closing at 3510.18 points, reflecting a 1.09% increase [12]. - The computer sector's performance was notably strong, with a 3.02% rise, contributing significantly to the overall market dynamics [12]. Key Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of cryptography in the blockchain ecosystem, particularly as stablecoins gain traction [6][32]. - The implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is anticipated to accelerate the development of the stablecoin market, with major companies like JD.com and Ant Group actively participating [6][26]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cryptographic technology reserves and relevant qualifications, especially those linked to the financial industry [6][42]. - It also highlights the potential for investment opportunities in firms that possess the necessary licenses and technological capabilities in blockchain and cryptography [30][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 1.99% increase in the 28th week of 2025, ranking 14th among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 10.00%, placing it 13th [2][4]. - OpenAI plans to launch an AI browser and open-source a new model, while xAI has released Grok 4 and is initiating a new round of financing to accelerate AI data center construction. The acquisition of Fokexima by Shijia Photon aims to enhance the MPO supply chain [2][5][6][7]. - The current valuation of the communication sector is at a historical low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 28th week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 1.99%, with a year-to-date rise of 10.00%. The top three gainers among companies with a market cap over 8 billion yuan were Hengbao Co. (+21.1%), Changxin Bochuang (+19.8%), and Shijia Photon (+14.8%). The top three decliners were Runze Technology (-4.1%), Canqin Technology (-3.4%), and Guomai Technology (-3.4%) [4]. AI and Computing Developments - OpenAI is set to release a browser integrated with a generative AI assistant, which could challenge Chrome's market dominance. Additionally, OpenAI will soon unveil an open-source language model, marking its first release since 2019 without Microsoft's involvement [5]. - xAI's Grok 4, touted as the "world's strongest AI," has surpassed doctoral-level performance in standardized tests. The company is preparing for a new financing round valued between 170 billion to 200 billion USD, with participation from Saudi Aramco's PIF fund [6]. Strategic Acquisitions - Shijia Photon plans to acquire 82.4% of Fokexima, a leading supplier of MT connectors, to strengthen its MPO product line. Fokexima's production capacity has exceeded 10 million units per month, and its revenue for 2024 is projected at 270 million yuan, reflecting a 225% year-on-year increase [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in various segments: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Shijia Photon - Domestic computing: Fenghuo Communication, Huafeng Technology, Yingweike, Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Guangxun Technology, ZTE, Unisplendour - AI applications: Heertai, Tuobang Technology, Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent, Guanghetong, Boshijie, Aojie Technology - Satellite applications: Haige Communication, Huace Navigation [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9][11]. Core Insights - Modern Dairy is a pioneer in large-scale farming, with digital transformation and refined operations driving cost reduction and resilience. The company is positioned as a leader in China's raw milk production and full industry chain operations, with a clear trend of tightening raw milk supply and demand gap, suggesting potential profitability improvement by the second half of 2025 [3][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Modern Dairy, established in 2005 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010, is headquartered in Ma'anshan, Anhui Province. The company aims to be a global leader in the dairy industry through a strategy focused on industry chain layout, digital innovation, and collaboration with strategic partner Mengniu [6][17]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of raw milk prices, indicating that prices may stabilize and improve by mid to late 2025 due to a combination of steady demand and accelerated capacity reduction in the upstream dairy sector [7][9]. Business Performance - In 2024, the company's raw milk business generated revenue of 10.454 billion yuan, accounting for 78.83% of total revenue. The company has also expanded into feed and digital platform businesses to enhance vertical synergy within the industry chain [8][54]. Financial Metrics - Modern Dairy's EBITDA for 2024 reached 2.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The company reported a total revenue of 13.254 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.417 billion yuan [18][61]. Growth Strategy - The company has focused on high-quality development driven by technology, optimizing cost structures, and improving resource utilization efficiency. This strategic shift aims to consolidate its leading position in the industry amid increasing market concentration [30][37]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the tightening supply-demand gap in raw milk will create investment opportunities, with significant upside potential in the company's earnings and valuation expected in 2025 and 2026 [9][61].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 746 to 798 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.9% to 50.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 105 to 112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% to 47.6%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 89 to 97 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.8% to 58.9% [2][5] - For the second quarter of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 363 to 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% to 63.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 55 to 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.5% to 88.8%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 46 to 53 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 74.6% to 102.7% [2][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company has seen significant revenue growth, particularly in the Sam's Club channel, with new product launches contributing to this increase. The company has introduced a new vegetarian snack and a sour soup chicken snack, with the latter achieving monthly sales of over 100,000 units, ranking in the top three for summer appetizers [11] Profit Margin Improvement - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to cost benefits and economies of scale. The wholesale prices of domestic white strip chicken have decreased year-on-year, and the prices of frozen duck products have also declined. The company expects to maintain stable profit margins in the second half of the year due to continued economies of scale [11] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 230 million, 264 million, and 295 million yuan respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.54, 0.62, and 0.69 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 21, and 19 times at the current stock price [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [10]. Core Insights - The increasing focus on stablecoins by various cities indicates a growing acceptance of financial innovation, with the exploration of the Renminbi stablecoin expected to gain momentum [12][12]. - Shanghai is positioned to lead the innovation in Renminbi stablecoins, supported by recent financial policies aimed at enhancing its international financial center status [12][12]. - The upcoming implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is anticipated to provide a valuable reference for the development of Renminbi stablecoins in mainland China [12][12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 10, a learning session was held by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on the trends and strategies related to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [5][5]. Event Commentary - The report highlights that stablecoins are becoming integral to mainstream financial infrastructure, facilitating inter-institutional fund transfers, corporate financial settlements, and cross-border trade payments [12][12]. - Multiple cities, including Chengdu, Wuxi, and Qingdao, are accelerating their research on stablecoins, reflecting a broader recognition of the global trend towards stablecoin adoption [12][12]. - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities related to stablecoins, particularly companies with issuance qualifications, technological expertise in blockchain, and relevant licenses [12][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The Shanghai Data Exchange has introduced a new paradigm called RDA (Real Data Assets), leveraging blockchain technology to convert physical assets and intangible data elements into digital forms, addressing five key challenges in the financialization of physical assets: authenticity, transparency, liquidity, economy, and consensus [2][6] - RDA emphasizes the integration of real-world assets (RWA) with data, facilitating the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy. The market for RWA has grown significantly, from $300 million at the end of 2021 to over $19 billion by the end of March 2025, highlighting the potential for asset tokenization [6] - The new paradigm of RDA is expected to accelerate the marketization and valuation of data elements, benefiting the entire industry chain. It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in data infrastructure, blockchain technology, and data rights and trading [6][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic positioning of rare earth materials is increasingly strengthened, and the potential for value reassessment is emerging due to the intensifying competition in global strategic industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and military [1][13]. - Rare earth prices have reached historical lows, with a cumulative decline of nearly 70% over the past three years, driven by slowing growth in new energy, weak traditional demand, and strong domestic supply releases [3][15]. - The Chinese government is enhancing its control over the rare earth industry, with new regulations and a significant reduction in the growth rate of rare earth smelting and separation quotas from 21% in 2023 to 4% in 2024 [3][18]. - The strategic value of rare earths is highlighted amid global trade tensions, with China implementing export controls on certain heavy rare earth items, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets [4][24]. - The gradual relaxation of export approvals for magnetic materials is expected to strengthen customer loyalty for leading companies and boost overseas replenishment demand [5][35]. Summary by Sections Current Price Situation - Rare earth prices are at historical bottom levels, with the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide dropping to 350,000 yuan/ton, touching the industry cost line [3][15]. - As of July 14, 2025, the five-year price percentiles for praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide are approximately 49%, 12%, and 43%, respectively, indicating they remain in the historical bottom range [3][15]. Government Control and Industry Dynamics - The domestic rare earth industry has undergone several rounds of consolidation, significantly increasing supply concentration and state control [3][18]. - New regulations emphasize the dominance of two major groups in the development of the domestic rare earth industry, with a focus on reducing supply in response to weak prices [3][18]. Strategic Value in Global Trade Context - Rare earths have become a critical resource for China, serving as a tool for trade retaliation amid ongoing trade conflicts, with export controls leading to a tightening of supply in overseas markets [4][24]. - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to invest significantly in local rare earth mining companies to increase production capacity, indicating a strong strategic interest in rare earth resources [4][24]. Magnetic Material Export and Market Outlook - The approval process for magnetic material exports is gradually being relaxed, which may enhance the profitability of magnetic material companies as rare earth prices rise [5][35]. - The development of humanoid robots, particularly by companies like Tesla, is expected to drive demand for magnetic materials, with potential increases in production and sales [5][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to high temperatures in July and August, which may lead to a short-term price recovery for thermal coal. The coal sector is currently underweight, with attractive dividend yields and defensive allocation value [2][25] - For coking coal, there is a rebound in prices driven by strong policy expectations and market sentiment, but the bargaining power of coking coal remains relatively weak in the black industry chain, limiting short-term upside potential [2][34] Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in June reached 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. The total coal production for the first half of the year was 240.5 million tons, up 5.4% year-on-year [6][14] - Coal imports in June fell to 33.04 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month. Cumulative imports for the first half of the year were 221.7 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year [18][21] Demand Summary - In June, thermal power generation increased by 1.1% year-on-year and 7.0% month-on-month, with total domestic power generation reaching 796.3 billion kWh, up 1.7% year-on-year [24][27] - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in cement production, saw a decline, with June production at 15.547 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [29][33] - The steel sector showed a significant year-on-year decrease in production, with crude steel output in June at 8.318 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [33][38] Future Outlook - The report suggests that thermal coal prices may see further support due to seasonal demand increases and the current low inventory levels at power plants. Key factors to monitor include supply conditions, high-temperature weather, and sustained demand release [25][27] - For coking coal, while recent price rebounds are noted, the report indicates limited short-term upside due to weak bargaining power and strong expectations of a seasonal downturn [34][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with strong earnings forecasts for companies like China National Materials and China Jushi, driven by wind power demand and AI applications [6][10] - The cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Glass Fiber - The mid-year earnings forecast for glass fiber is optimistic, with China National Materials expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 670-830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186-254% [6] - China Jushi's net profit is projected to be around 1.65-1.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163-171% [6] - The demand for ordinary glass fiber remains under pressure, while special electronic fabrics are experiencing accelerated growth due to the AI wave [6][10] Cement - Cement prices have continued to decline, with average prices at 352.74 yuan per ton, down 0.65 yuan month-on-month and 45.32 yuan year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is 43%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [27] - There are plans for price increases in certain regions as prices approach bottom levels [27] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices are stable, with slight increases in some areas, and overall demand remains cautious [9][41] - The production capacity utilization rate for the float glass industry is at 82.09%, with a total of 283 production lines [9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 5.734 million weight boxes, down 97,000 weight boxes month-on-month [9][41] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Keda Manufacturing as key players [10] - It also suggests that the demand for building materials is expected to rise, particularly in the renovation sector, benefiting companies with strong business models [10]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 如何看 2025 年 6 月消费数据？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 更多研报请访问 长江研究小程序 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 如何看 2025 年 6 月消费数据？ 联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 6 月份，社会消费品零售总额 42287 亿元，同比增长 4.8%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 37649 亿元，增长 4.8%。1—6 月份，社会消费品零售总额 245458 亿元，同比增长 5.0%。 其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 221990 亿元，增长 5.5%。 事件评论 ⚫ 零售：线上占比持续提升，国补品类延续高增 ⚫ 社服：餐饮增速回调，酒店承压延续，免税销售额临近回正 ⚫ 汽车：价格战趋向缓和，关注龙头拐点、强新车车企机会和阿尔法零部件 ⚫ 纺服：6 月零售降速，品牌 Q3 进入最低基数期，制造重回基本面投资逻辑 ⚫ 轻工：重视新消费发展机遇，看好 ...