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从“日历效应”看转债年末的配置方向
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The calendar effect in the convertible bond market results from the multi - dimensional intersection of macro - policy rhythms, micro - capital behaviors, and supply - demand changes. It provides a reference perspective for analyzing the fluctuations in the convertible bond and equity markets [4]. - There are significant "calendar effects" in the convertible bond and equity markets, which are formed by multiple factors such as policy meetings, capital - flow periodic fluctuations, earnings disclosure rhythms, and changes in investors' risk preferences. This offers a time - dimension reference for asset allocation [7]. - At the sector level, the "calendar effect" is related to industry rotation intensity, policy rhythms, and performance disclosure cycles. It can help identify phased allocation opportunities. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on industrial and information technology convertible bonds [8]. - From the perspective of supply - demand rhythms, the price center of convertible bonds is expected to continue rising. The supply - demand pattern of the convertible bond market shows certain seasonal characteristics, and grasping the rhythm changes may help in layout during phased supply - demand relaxation windows [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodically Appearing "Calendar Effect" - The "calendar effect" refers to the statistically repeatable return deviations or behavior patterns in the securities market within specific time cycles. The research focuses on the performance of A - share and convertible bond main indices from early 2018 to October 24, 2025 [18]. - In the weekly calendar effect, there is a "Monday strong" phenomenon. Mid - and large - cap indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500, as well as the CSI Convertible Bond Index, show a "Wednesday weak" feature, while small - and mid - cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 show a "Friday weak" feature. This may be related to the "T + 1" trading mechanism and the influence of public funds [18][21]. - In the monthly performance, the overall performance of major indices in the late part of the month is usually weaker than that in the first and middle parts. The "calendar effect" within a month may be related to the periodic fluctuations of the capital flow. The CSI Convertible Bond market also shows a significant monthly calendar effect [27][30]. 3.2 "Calendar Effect" under Policy Guidelines - Policy releases have certain time rules and rhythms, which are important sources of the A - share market's "calendar effect". Key economic meetings should be highly concerned, such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Central Financial Work Conference [35]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index show certain monthly seasonal characteristics. The risk premium of the market has declined, and the equity market still has relatively high cost - effectiveness. The monthly periodic performance of these indices may be related to the annual policy release rhythm and important meeting arrangements [38][43]. 3.3 "Calendar Effect" from the Perspective of Financial Reports - The equity market shows periodic stock - price fluctuations around financial report releases. After the annual report season, the performance of small - and mid - cap indices weakens, while the large - cap style is dominant at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Different sectors have different performances during and after the annual report performance disclosure period [45][47]. 3.4 "Calendar Effect" under Risk Preferences - Changes in risk preferences are a key factor driving the calendar effect in the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market is more active in the second and third quarters. The financing - margin trading volume ratio to the total A - share trading volume also shows periodic changes, which may be related to policy release rhythms and corporate earnings disclosure cycles [57][59]. 3.5 Opportunity Identification of the "Calendar Effect" at the Sector Dimension - Since September, the industry rotation intensity has increased. The periods of high rotation intensity are usually in April, August, September, and December, while February, June, October, and November are relatively flat. The narrowing of the conversion premium rate channel may indicate future directional changes in the convertible bond market [67][72]. 3.6 Monthly - Dimension Industry Rotation Rules - In the "Spring Rally" at the beginning of the year (January - February), technology - growth sectors perform prominently. During the annual report performance disclosure period (March - May), defensive sectors perform well. In the mid - year report performance game period (June - July), cyclical and growth sectors resonate. After the mid - year report is released (August - September), most sectors enter a callback. At the end of the year (October - December), there is a style switch and defensive allocation [75][81]. 3.7 Industrial Convertible Bonds Still Have Room for Growth during Supply - Demand Reconstruction - Industrial convertible bonds are a worthy allocation direction in November. Benefiting from the improvement of the supply - demand relationship and the overall contraction of the convertible bond market supply, industrial convertible bonds perform better than in previous years. Although the current valuation is high, it is still attractive, and the convertible bonds have the potential to rise after valuation digestion [85][90]. 3.8 The Information Technology Sector May Continue to Be the Main Line - The information technology sector has a higher probability of strengthening in March, July, and November. Currently, it is in the early stage of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and with policy support and technological iteration, its performance in the equity market may be sustainable. From August, the information technology convertible bond index has gradually recovered, and it may still have performance space from November to December [97].
中信博(688408):中信博(688408):Q3项目延期导致业绩承压,订单充沛保障后续交付
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 02:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.378 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, down 71.59% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.341 billion yuan, a decline of 48.54% year-on-year and 45.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -36 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 118.58% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 176.45% [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.4%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the expense ratio rose to 18.7%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in revenue. The total expenses for Q3 were 250 million yuan, showing a growth compared to the previous quarter [11]. - The company experienced asset impairment reversals of 90 million yuan and credit impairment losses of 100 million yuan in Q3, which had a limited impact on profits [11]. Future Outlook - The second phase of the Jeddah factory in Saudi Arabia was completed in October, with an annual delivery capacity of 15 GW, enhancing the company's position in the Middle East market. The company has resumed cooperation with India's Adani, which is expected to contribute to order growth in the Indian market. As of the end of Q3, the company had an order backlog of 7.2 billion yuan, including 6.01 billion yuan in tracking systems and 1.11 billion yuan in fixed structures. The resolution of project delivery delays is anticipated to restore revenue and profit [11].
海优新材(688680):海优新材(688680):光伏胶膜经营风险释放,调光膜发力前装和后装市场
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 02:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 870 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 57.62%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -208 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 237 million yuan, down 58.03% year-on-year and down 25.44% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -75 million yuan, which was stable compared to the previous quarter [2][6]. Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin was -6.67%, a decrease of 4.88 percentage points, attributed to price reductions in the domestic market following a decline in demand. The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 275 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.69%. The balance of accounts receivable and inventory has significantly decreased since the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial reduction in operational risks. The asset-liability ratio at the end of Q3 was 51%, which is considered healthy [12][12]. Market Outlook - Since September, the price of photovoltaic films has increased multiple times. If the internal competition leads to a price increase for components, it will create opportunities for profit recovery in the film sector. The company has made significant progress in its PDCLC dimming film technology, securing contracts with major automotive manufacturers and expanding its application scenarios [12][12]. Future Projections - The company’s collaboration with H.B. Fuller on photovoltaic encapsulation film production lines has entered the installation and trial production phase. Equipment for the Turkish project has been shipped and successfully arrived at the port, which will enhance the company's influence in overseas markets. The PDCLC technology is expected to benefit from increased penetration rates in the automotive dimming film market, with further product line expansions anticipated [12][12].
德业股份(605117):汇兑影响下Q3业绩依旧环增,Q4需求增长趋势延续
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 02:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.846 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.347 billion yuan, up 4.79% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 3.311 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.32% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.51%. However, the net profit for Q3 was 825 million yuan, down 17.84% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company had operating expenses of 300 million yuan, with an expense ratio of 9.1%, both of which increased quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to financial expenses rising from exchange rate fluctuations, with estimated exchange losses around 60 million yuan [11]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in orders from Ukraine, alongside improvements in demand from other markets, leading to a positive operational trend in Q4. The company is positioned as a leader in household and commercial energy storage, benefiting from rapid growth in emerging markets and overseas commercial storage [11]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.3 billion yuan and 4.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 23 and 18 times [11].
先导智能(300450):先导智能2025Q3点评:业绩维持同环比增长,固态电池设备业务持续推进
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 02:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.439 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.186 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 94.97% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 3.828 billion yuan, up 13.95% year-on-year and 9.00% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 446 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 198.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.95% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company maintained growth in both revenue and net profit, with a gross margin of 32.72% and a net profit margin of 11.13%. The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 3.848 billion yuan, showing a significant improvement year-on-year [12]. Market Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery, with improved supply-demand conditions leading to increased orders. The company, as a leading player, is benefiting from this trend, with a notable increase in prepayments and inventory levels, indicating a healthy order backlog [12]. Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in solid-state battery equipment, securing repeat orders from both domestic and international clients. It has developed a comprehensive range of equipment for solid-state battery production, which has been well-received in the market [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.66 billion yuan and 2.27 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 52 and 38 times [12].
铂力特(688333):铂力特2025Q3点评:业绩高增,持续拓展新应用领域
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 01:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.161 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.47%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 156 million yuan, up 234.83% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 109 million yuan, showing a staggering growth of 1,966.73% [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 494 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 120.94% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.24%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 79 million yuan, up 447.30% year-on-year, although it decreased by 12.96% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 43.48% and a net margin of 13.42%. In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 45.24%, with a net margin of 16.09% [13]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 230 million yuan and 320 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 90 and 64 times [8]. Business Development - The significant revenue and profit growth are attributed to the company's ongoing expansion into new application areas, particularly in the civilian market and commercial aerospace sector. The revenue from customized 3D printing products in the civilian sector has seen substantial growth [13]. - The company has made breakthroughs in various application fields, including consumer electronics, thermal management, and commercial aerospace, leveraging its metal 3D printing technology [13]. Research and Capacity Expansion - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company invested 183 million yuan in R&D, focusing on enhancing its metal 3D printing technology and achieving self-control over its software ecosystem [13]. - The company has over 4,600 laser printing devices and plans to increase its production capacity to 3,000 tons per year with the establishment of a dedicated powder material production line, positioning itself as a leading player in the domestic metal additive manufacturing industry [13].
福莱特玻璃(06865):港股研究|公司点评|福莱特玻璃(06865.HK):福莱特玻璃(06865):Q3利润同环比大幅增长,海外销售占比持续提升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 01:50
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨福莱特玻璃(06865.HK) [Table_Title] Q3 利润同环比大幅增长,海外销售占比持续提 升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 福莱特发布 2025 年三季报,2025 前三季度公司实现收入 124.64 亿元,同比下降 14.66%;归 母净利 6.38 亿元,同比下降 50.79%;其中,2025Q3 实现收入 47.27 亿元,同比增长 20.95%, 环比增长 29.22%;归母净利 3.76 亿元,同比扭亏,环比增长 142.93%,超出市场预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 申浩树 SAC:S0490514040001 SAC:S0490522030001 SAC:S0490524120006 SAC:S0490525060004 SFC:BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 福莱特玻璃(06865.HK) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title ...
捷佳伟创(300724):联合研究|公司点评|捷佳伟创(300724.SZ):捷佳伟创(300724):捷佳伟创:盈利能力提升增益Q3业绩表现,控费能力表现较好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 01:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 is primarily driven by improved profitability and excellent cost control. The operating cash flow has significantly optimized, showing a reduction in cash outflow compared to Q2. New orders are mainly benefiting from overseas market expansion, while domestic TOPCon expansion is slowing down. However, with the penetration of TOPCon+ technology and the expansion of BC, the company's orders are expected to recover marginally [2][6][13]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.106 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.17%, and a net profit of 2.688 billion, up 32.90% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 4.734 billion, down 17.26% year-on-year, while the net profit was 858 million, up 7.72% year-on-year [6][10]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the perovskite field and is expanding into semiconductor equipment and composite conductive materials, continuing to build new order volumes. Recent achievements include successful shipments of self-developed equipment and overcoming technical bottlenecks in transparent conductive oxide films [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 28.06%, an increase of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 18.13%, up 4.20 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s expense ratio decreased by 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong cost control [13]. - The company’s inventory and contract liabilities were 6.622 billion and 6.481 billion, respectively, showing a significant decrease from Q2 2025, indicating pressure on new orders [13]. Market Dynamics - The industry is actively promoting optimization of existing capacity while limiting expansion, with downstream product prices remaining at historical lows, leading to overall weak profitability in the industry. The company’s new orders are expected to benefit from overseas market expansion, while domestic TOPCon technology is being optimized to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness [13]. - The domestic supply-demand landscape is expected to improve, with the penetration of TOPCon+ technology and the expansion of BC potentially leading to a marginal recovery in orders [13]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.05 billion and 1.47 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 12x and 25x [13].
奥特维(688516):联合研究|公司点评|奥特维(688516.SH):奥特维(688516):Q3毛利率同环比提升,加速拓展固态电池和半导体业务
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 01:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 67.68% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, revenue was 1.292 billion yuan, a decline of 48.65% year-on-year and 29.96% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 82 million yuan, down 81.54% year-on-year and 50.46% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q3 revenue decline was primarily due to slower acceptance rates, although shipments remained normal. The report anticipates an increase in the proportion of revenue from string welding machines and modifications, while the share from single crystal furnaces and screen printing is expected to decrease. The gross margin for Q3 was 36.6%, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year and 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a lower proportion of low-margin products [12][12]. - The expense ratio for Q3 was 25.0%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, influenced by revenue decline and increased R&D and management expenses. Asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses for Q3 were -73 million yuan and -45 million yuan, respectively, impacting profit release [12][12]. Future Outlook - As of the end of Q3, the company had an order backlog of 9.940 billion yuan (including tax), with semiconductor orders reaching a new high and continuing to grow. In the photovoltaic sector, new capacity demand has decreased due to industry cycles, while demand for technological upgrades has increased. The company has developed compatible multi-slice edge passivation equipment, which is currently undergoing small-batch trial production at client sites [12][12]. - In the lithium battery sector, the company has laid out equipment for sulfide electrolytes, stacking equipment, and assembly equipment, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Yili Technology, and has secured orders exceeding 10 million yuan. The company has also developed several products for negative electrode material equipment, successfully obtaining an order for silicon oxide sintering furnace equipment from a lithium battery materials company in Vietnam [12][12]. - In the semiconductor sector, packaging equipment has received orders from clients such as Optoelectronics, Global Broadcasting, and others. The prototypes for flip chip bonding machines and die attach machines have shown good results in client validation, and the company is continuously optimizing based on client needs [12][12].
芯碁微装(688630):联合研究|公司点评|芯碁微装(688630.SH):芯碁微装(688630):芯碁微装:新产能逐步爬坡,曝光设备龙头订单、现金流向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 01:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 934 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.03%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, up 28.20% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 193 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [2][5]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 279 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.98%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 57 million yuan, up 4.41% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was also 57 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.38% [2][5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in PCB exposure equipment, benefiting from the acceleration of AI expansion and new technology driving growth in both volume and price [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross margin was 42.15%, an increase of 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 20.34%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 was 70 million yuan, a significant improvement compared to the previous year [10]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is enhancing its delivery capacity with the commencement of its second-phase production base, which is expected to alleviate previous capacity constraints and support order fulfillment in 2026 [10]. - The advanced packaging business is set to become a second growth curve, with a focus on high-performance direct-write lithography equipment suitable for AI chip manufacturing and advanced packaging [10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 290 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 720 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 52, 31, and 21 times [10].