证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 新房网签面积同比降幅扩大，二手房网签面积同比转负 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） | 新房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | 二手房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | | 样本城市 | -28% | -扩大 | -25 PCT | 样本城市 | -28% | 转负 | -42 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | 转负 | -40 PCT | 一线城市 | -30% | 转负 | -55 PCT | | （4 城） | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommend" rating for several key companies in the military industry, including 中航西飞, 中航光电, 航天彩虹, and others [10]. Core Insights - The military industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with the SW National Defense Military Index increasing by 13.28% year-to-date as of October 17, 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 Index [14][20]. - Key events include the successful launches of two major commercial satellite constellations, which are expected to enhance the industry's growth potential [22][24]. - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session from October 20 to 23, 2025, is anticipated to outline new directions for the military industry, particularly in unmanned, intelligent, and systematic combat equipment [24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The military industry has shown a decline of 4.70% in the SW National Defense Military Index this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.48 percentage points [14]. - The overall industry has ranked 16th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [14]. Key Events - The report highlights the recent launches of the 星网 and 千帆 satellite constellations, with 星网 completing five launches in 21 days and 千帆 planning to accelerate its launch schedule significantly [22][23]. Catalysts - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which will focus on the 15th Five-Year Plan and its implications for the military industry [24]. Company Performance - The report lists several companies with strong performance expectations, including 中航沈飞, 中航西飞, and 航发动力, all rated as "strongly recommend" [10]. - The report also notes the financial metrics of these companies, indicating a robust outlook for their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [10]. Industry Valuation - The military industry maintains a high valuation, with the current PE ratio at 83.33 times earnings, reflecting strong investor interest despite recent market fluctuations [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., with expected significant growth in stock prices [2][31]. Core Insights - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a tight supply of chicks, leading to a slight increase in chick prices, but overall profitability is declining due to rising costs and low prices for broilers [1][9]. - The yellow feather chicken market shows significant recovery in both volume and price, with major companies reporting improved profitability due to rising demand and lower production costs [1][21]. - The overall poultry industry is expected to see a tightening supply of parent stock, which will positively impact chick prices in the future [9][31]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - Chick prices in September averaged 3.27 yuan per chick, down 8.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [8]. - The average price for broilers was 6.99 yuan per kilogram, down 3.2% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month, leading to a loss of 1 yuan per chick for producers [9]. - The supply of parent stock is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the availability of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [9][31]. Yellow Feather Chicken - In September, the average price for fast-growing chickens was 5.41 yuan per jin, up 2.5% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in prices [24]. - Major companies like Wens and Lihua reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 123 million broilers, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [21]. - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with Wens' cost dropping to 5.6 yuan per jin, setting the stage for improved profitability in the fourth quarter [25][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector, highlighting Shengnong Development as a key player due to its cost improvements [31]. - For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended as they are well-positioned to benefit from the expected price recovery and improved market conditions [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly highlighting the attractiveness of resource stocks due to historically low valuations expected by 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The ongoing tariff disputes and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts have driven a surge in precious metal prices, while industrial metals have seen a temporary halt in price increases due to tariff threats [1]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish narrative for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, and suggests that short-term adjustments present buying opportunities [1]. - Key focus areas include copper, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and uranium, along with new materials related to technological growth [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector consists of 236 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 586.38 billion yuan, representing 5.7% of the overall market [2]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.7%, a 6-month increase of 48.5%, and a 12-month increase of 61.6% [3]. - The report notes that the precious metals index has outperformed other sub-sectors, with significant gains in silver and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4]. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: As of October 16, copper inventories increased by 11,200 tons to 177,500 tons, while total inventories decreased by 51,700 tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a tightening supply situation for copper, with long-term price increases expected [4]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 627,000 tons, indicating a positive supply-demand balance. However, macroeconomic risks may still pressure aluminum prices [4]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have risen due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong demand from the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [4]. - **Rare Earths**: The report highlights a mixed performance in rare earth prices, with a significant drop in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices due to increased supply and cautious purchasing from downstream manufacturers [4]. New Materials and Technologies - The report discusses advancements in fusion energy and the potential for increased demand for uranium, with a focus on companies involved in uranium mining and production [5]. - It also notes the optimistic outlook for lithium and nickel due to strong demand in battery manufacturing, with prices for lithium carbonate showing slight increases [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for domestic interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture interest rate trend patterns, identifying support and resistance lines based on the shape of interest rate movements across different investment cycles [10][24] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Utilize 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data as the basis for analysis [10][24] 2. **Cycle Classification**: Divide the investment horizon into long-term (monthly frequency), medium-term (bi-weekly frequency), and short-term (weekly frequency) cycles [10][24] 3. **Signal Identification**: Detect upward or downward breakthroughs of support and resistance lines for each cycle [10][24] 4. **Composite Scoring**: Aggregate signals across cycles, assigning scores based on the number of consistent breakthroughs (e.g., 2/3 consistent signals lead to a "buy" or "sell" recommendation) [10][24] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures multi-cycle resonance in interest rate trends, providing actionable timing signals for bond trading strategies [10][24] - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for U.S. interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: Apply the domestic interest rate price-volume timing model to the U.S. Treasury market [21] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Use 10-year U.S. Treasury YTM data for analysis [21] 2. **Cycle Classification**: Similar to the domestic model, divide the investment horizon into long-term, medium-term, and short-term cycles [21] 3. **Signal Identification**: Detect upward or downward breakthroughs of support and resistance lines for each cycle [21] 4. **Composite Scoring**: Aggregate signals across cycles, assigning scores based on the number of consistent breakthroughs [21] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a neutral-to-bullish outlook for U.S. Treasury yields, indicating its adaptability to international markets [21] Model Backtesting Results - **Domestic Multi-cycle Timing Model**: - **5-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 1.86% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.16 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.85% [25][27] - **10-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.09% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.42% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.19 - Long-term excess return: 1.66% - Short-term excess return: 1.55% [28][32] - **30-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.38% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.73 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 3.11% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.39 - Long-term excess return: 2.42% - Short-term excess return: 2.87% [33][35] - **U.S. Multi-cycle Timing Model**: - **10-year YTM**: - Current signal: Neutral-to-bullish - Long-term annualized return: Not provided - Maximum drawdown: Not provided - Return-to-drawdown ratio: Not provided [21][23] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Interest rate structure indicators (level, term, convexity) **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform YTM data into structural indicators to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective [7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Level Structure**: Calculate the average YTM across maturities (1-10 years) 2. **Term Structure**: Measure the slope between short-term and long-term YTM 3. **Convexity Structure**: Assess the curvature of the yield curve [7] **Factor Evaluation**: The indicators effectively capture the current state of the interest rate market, highlighting deviations from historical averages [7] Factor Backtesting Results - **Interest Rate Structure Indicators**: - **Level Structure**: Current reading: 1.64%, historical 10-year percentile: 7% - **Term Structure**: Current reading: 0.38%, historical 10-year percentile: 16% - **Convexity Structure**: Current reading: -0.09%, historical 10-year percentile: 1% [7]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The US and China are expected to hold a new round of trade negotiations, with discussions focusing on key issues such as agricultural exports and rare earth supplies[11] - The Nasdaq index rose by 2.1% as market concerns over trade tensions eased following the US's softened stance[12] - The upcoming negotiations may prioritize short-term outcomes and risk management, with a focus on tariffs and non-tariff barriers[12] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump and Putin discussed the potential for a meeting in Hungary, indicating a desire to stabilize US-Russia relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions[14] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.2% due to concerns over supply surplus and geopolitical easing, while the Russian RTS index increased by 5.4% following the Trump-Putin conversation[14] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[17] Group 3: Domestic US Politics - The US government shutdown continues, with both parties showing little urgency to resolve the situation, reflecting a politically charged environment[18] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may shift legislative power back to Congress, potentially leading to more stringent trade measures[17]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -4.26%, while the value style portfolio returned -1.17% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.09, and for the value style, it is 1.12, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 63.24%, while the value style has a win rate of 36.76%, based on seven indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.32, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.22, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.59%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a significant production and sales milestone in September, with production reaching 3.276 million vehicles and sales at 3.226 million vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. This is the first time production and sales have exceeded 3 million vehicles in the same month [1][2]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the vehicle replacement policy and the recovery of previously paused regions, contributing to a robust market environment. The industry has seen continuous monthly growth rates above 10% for five consecutive months [1][2]. - The report notes that the automotive sector is undergoing positive changes, with new models being launched and a resilient foreign trade performance [1]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector index declined by 6.2% during the week of October 12 to October 18, underperforming compared to other sectors such as banking and coal [2][9]. - Within the automotive industry, all secondary segments experienced declines, with the auto parts segment seeing the most significant drop of 7.5% [11]. - The report provides a detailed performance review of individual stocks, noting that Haima Automobile and ST Meichen saw increases of 19.2% and 16.8% respectively, while Ningbo Huaxiang and Xinquan shares fell by 20.1% and 19.6% respectively [3][16]. Recent Industry Developments - The report outlines several key developments, including the successful listing process of Seres Group on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Tesla's expansion plans for its Shanghai factory [23][24]. - Strategic partnerships are highlighted, such as the collaboration between Changan Automobile and JD Group, aimed at enhancing their market presence [24]. - The report also mentions the launch of new vehicle models, including the flagship model from Leap Motor, which aims to set a new standard in the technology luxury SUV segment [27].

- The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Model" suggests overweighting growth stocks based on quantitative economic cycle analysis, where a high profit cycle slope and strong credit cycle favor growth, while high interest rate levels favor value. The model combines signals from fundamentals, valuation, and sentiment to recommend growth allocation[29][30][31] - The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 13.10% since 2012, outperforming the benchmark's 7.77% annualized return. The strategy's annualized excess return is 5.33%, with a maximum drawdown of 43.07% compared to the benchmark's 44.13%[30][32] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Model" is constructed using 11 effective rotation indicators, including market sentiment concentration, Beta dispersion, and volatility risk. Currently, 7 indicators favor large-cap stocks, maintaining a recommendation to overweight large-cap style[33][34] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Strategy" has delivered an annualized excess return of 9.91% this year, with a shift from small-cap allocation in the first half to large-cap allocation in the second half. Since 2014, the strategy has consistently generated positive excess returns annually[34][35] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" integrates signals from fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity. This week, the strategy turned cautious due to weak manufacturing PMI, high PE and PB valuation levels, and subdued market sentiment. Liquidity signals remain neutral[19][20][21] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 16.52% since 2012, significantly outperforming the benchmark's 4.73%. The strategy's annualized excess return is 11.79%, with a maximum drawdown of 15.49% compared to the benchmark's 31.41%. This year, the strategy has delivered a return of 23.22%, with an excess return of 11.16%[21][24][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the AI sector, highlighting the scarcity advantage of domestic computing power and suggesting to focus on companies such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Zhongke Shuguang [2][17]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic AI computing power is entering a phase of significant growth, with leading companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian showing substantial revenue increases [6][16]. - Oracle's recent updates indicate a strong market confidence, with a remaining performance obligation (RPO) exceeding $500 billion and a diverse range of AI orders [10][11]. - The report notes that overseas tech companies are intensifying their innovations in the AI field, with significant investments and projects announced by Oracle, OpenAI, and Nvidia [12][24]. Industry Overview - The AI sector is experiencing robust growth, with Haiguang Information reporting a revenue of 9.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.65%, and Cambrian reporting a staggering 2386.38% increase in revenue [16][17]. - The report highlights the performance of the AI application sector in China, suggesting a focus on companies like Meitu, Kuaishou, and Kingsoft for consumer-side applications, and ERP companies like Kingdee International and Yonyou for business-side applications [18][19]. - The overall market performance for the computer sector showed a decline of 5.61% in the third week of October 2025, with notable stock movements among various companies [20][21].