北交所本周量能放大，指数冲高回落 ——北交所周报（1.12-1.16） 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：冯胜 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：宋瀚清 执业证书编号：S0740524060001 Email：songhq01@zts.com.cn 北交所基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 288 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,285.86 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,789.95 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，北证成份股 288 个，平均市值 32.69 亿元。 本周（2026 年 1 月 12 日-2026 年 1 月 16 日，下同）北证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.58%，收 盘 1548.32 点；同期沪深 300 和上证指数涨跌幅分别为-0.57%和-0.45%。本周北交 所日均成交额为 409.81 亿元，较上周（2026 年 1 月 ...

详解宁波银行 2025 业绩快报：各项主要指标均保持稳健 宁波银行（002142.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | 营业收入（百万元） | 61,572 | | 66,560 | 71,968 | 78,842 | 86,248 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 增长率 yoy% | 6.40% | | 8.10% | 8.10% | 9.60% | 9.40% | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | 归母净利润（百万元） | 25,535 | | 27,127 | 29,333 | 32,257 | 35,421 | | 分析师：邓美君 | 增长率 yoy% | 10.70% | | 6.20% | 8.10% | 10.00% | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The demand for satellite internet networking is urgent, and space computing opens new growth opportunities. The construction of satellite internet networks is driven by strong demand due to the advantages of wide coverage, strong disaster resistance, and rapid deployment. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established principles for satellite frequency and orbit usage, leading to a competitive race for low Earth orbit resources. The construction and launch of satellite constellations in China are accelerating, with a significant gap compared to the US [4][16]. - Space computing is leading to increased demand for satellites. The traditional model of "ground computing" is evolving to "space computing," with satellites equipped with AI chips and edge computing modules to process data in orbit, significantly reducing transmission delays and processing times. Major companies are investing in space computing infrastructure, which is expected to drive the demand for satellites [17][19]. - Solar wings are the only efficient and long-term energy supply solution for near-Earth commercial space. Solar wings account for approximately 12%-24% of the satellite's value, and their area is continuously increasing, which enhances the overall power supply capacity of satellites. The transition from rigid to flexible solar wings is a key trend, with different technological routes being adopted in China and the US [4][28][38]. Summary by Sections Satellite Internet Networking - The urgent need for satellite internet networking is driven by the rapid release of rigid application demands in communication, navigation, and remote sensing. The construction of satellite internet networks is becoming increasingly critical due to limited low Earth orbit resources and the competitive landscape [11][16]. - The ITU's "first come, first served" principle has intensified the competition for satellite orbital resources, with China lagging in the completion rate of its satellite constellations compared to the US [16][18]. Space Computing - Space computing is transforming satellite demand by embedding AI capabilities into satellite systems, allowing for in-orbit data processing and reducing the need for ground-based data transmission. This shift is expected to significantly enhance the capabilities and applications of satellites [19][22]. Solar Wings - Solar wings are essential for providing continuous power to satellites, with their value accounting for a significant portion of the satellite's overall worth. The area of solar wings is increasing, which is expected to enhance the power supply capabilities of satellites [28][30]. - The transition from rigid to flexible solar wings allows for greater power generation efficiency and is particularly suited for high-power and multi-satellite launch scenarios. The flexible solar wings can achieve a higher power-to-weight ratio and better space utilization [38][45]. Technology Routes - There are notable differences in the solar wing battery technology routes between China and the US. The US primarily uses silicon solar cells due to their lower costs and established supply chains, while China is exploring gallium arsenide cells for their higher power-to-weight ratios and efficiency [51][62]. - Gallium arsenide cells are being actively explored for cost reduction, and perovskite cells are emerging as a potential next-generation solution for solar wings due to their low cost and high efficiency [65][69].

Core Insights - The report discusses the causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, highlighting factors such as the issuance of subprime loans due to low interest rates, rapid home price increases, and the role of financial innovation in spreading debt through securitization [3] - It outlines the U.S. government's response to the crisis, emphasizing the effectiveness of fiscal policies over traditional monetary policies, and the shift in leverage from households to the government [3] - The report indicates that U.S. housing prices are expected to stabilize and recover over time, with a projected timeline of approximately 5-10 years for full recovery from the crisis [3] Summary by Sections Causes of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis - The crisis was driven by increased household leverage due to low interest rates, rapid home price appreciation beyond actual value, speculative behavior in certain cities, and the impact of rising interest rates that burst the housing bubble [3] Government Response - Traditional monetary policy measures, such as interest rate cuts, were less effective compared to substantial fiscal policies that directly stimulated demand and unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing (QE) that intervened in troubled assets [3] Housing Market Recovery - Long-term interest rates in the U.S. are on a downward trend, providing support for housing prices. The report notes that when the rental-to-price ratio exceeds the mortgage rate, housing price growth is expected to stabilize, with a recovery timeline of about 4.5 years post-crisis [3]

Group 1: Funding Sources - The funding sources for national-level merger and acquisition (M&A) funds globally fall into three categories: public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and diversified fundraising [3][8] - Public pensions, according to OECD data, allocated 25.9% of their assets to alternative assets in 2022, with private equity accounting for 55.2% of that, indicating that approximately 7.1% of OECD public pension reserves are directed towards M&A strategies [8] - Sovereign funds, such as Singapore's Government Investment Corporation (GIC), have historically allocated over half of their private equity investments to acquisition strategies, with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds playing a dominant role in regional M&A markets [8][9] Group 2: M&A Targets - National-level M&A funds focus on two dimensions: mature assets and strategic sectors [10] - They act as a "relay baton" by not only investing in target companies but also facilitating exits for early shareholders, such as private equity and venture capital funds, thus promoting capital circulation [10] - In strategic sectors, M&A funds aim to protect core assets and enhance supply chain security, as seen in Japan's JIC acquiring semiconductor leader JSR to maintain national technological advantages [11][12] Group 3: Governance and Exit Strategies - Governance structures emphasize professionalism, independence, and sustainability, with a focus on "government guidance and market dominance" to ensure investment decisions remain professional and free from political interference [13] - For example, GIC operates under legal protections that limit government intervention in investment decisions, while Japan's JIC employs a professional management team for its private equity activities [13][14] - Exit mechanisms are designed to ensure liquidity and reinvestment capabilities, with plans for public offerings or sales post-acquisition, as demonstrated by JIC's strategy for JSR [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The overall market performance of the North Exchange shows a significant increase, with the North 50 Index rising by 7.49% during the period from January 5 to January 16, 2026, closing at 1548.33 points. In comparison, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 indices increased by 2.20%, 4.93%, and 12.64%, respectively [4][10] - The average market capitalization of the 288 constituent stocks in the North Exchange is 32.69 billion yuan, with a total market value of 941.449 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 573.460 billion yuan [1][4] - The daily average trading volume during this period reached 331.61 billion yuan, representing a 67.96% increase compared to the previous period [4][12] Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of January 16, 2026, the North Exchange has 288 listed companies, with an average market capitalization of 32.69 billion yuan. The North 50 Index increased by 7.49% during the specified period [4][10] - The daily average trading volume was 331.61 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.62%, which is an increase of 2.30 percentage points from the previous period [12][13] North Exchange Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors in the North Exchange during this period were Media (45.09%), Oil and Petrochemicals (22.23%), Non-ferrous Metals (16.87%), Automotive (14.64%), and Communications (13.47%) [4][15] North Exchange New Stocks - Three new stocks were issued during this period: Kema Materials (920086.BJ), Aisheren (920050.BJ), and Guoliang New Materials (920076.BJ) [5][23] North Exchange Key News - On January 5, 2026, the company Guangdao Tui (920680) was officially delisted, marking the first forced delisting due to major violations since the establishment of the North Exchange [7][24] - On January 14, 2026, the financing margin ratio for investors was adjusted from 80% to 100%, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors' rights [7][24] North Exchange Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to perform well in 2026, including Data Centers, Robotics, Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Military Information Technology [7][26]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, achieving a full-year GDP growth of 5.0%[2] - The contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP changed from 44.5%, 25.2%, and 30.3% in 2024 to 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% in 2025, respectively[2] Consumption and Investment - Final consumption expenditure's contribution to economic growth exceeded 50% due to the "trade-in" policy, with retail sales growth rising from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025[2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, which indirectly boosted the contribution of final consumption to economic growth[2] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth in December 2025 rose to 5.2% from 4.8% in November, while the service production index increased from 4.2% to 5.0%[2] - High-tech industry value-added growth reached 11.0% in December 2025, marking the highest level for the year, with an annual growth of 9.4% compared to 8.9% in 2024[2] Capacity Utilization and Real Estate - China's industrial capacity utilization rate increased from 74.6% in Q3 2025 to 74.9% in Q4 2025, but was down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, the largest decline since Q2 2023[2] - Real estate indicators showed a narrowing decline, with property sales area and value improving from -17.0% and -24.6% in November to -15.5% and -23.5% in December 2025[3] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that structural highlights in the economy are emerging, but the "strong supply, weak demand" situation persists, necessitating continued policy support[3] - The central bank's structural interest rate cuts and expanded lending in January 2026 indicate a clear intention for a more accommodative credit policy to stimulate economic growth[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a "contraction" in commodity markets, with a focus on the differentiated performance of long-end bonds in the debt market [3][4] - Recent macro data has shown positive trends, with social financing and export figures exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [3][4] - The report notes a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, reaching the highest monthly value since 2014, driven by strong export growth and expectations of RMB appreciation [3][4] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices have cooled down recently, with a notable "contraction" in market activity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4] - The South China Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while energy, black metals, and agricultural products have shown weaker performance [3][4] - The report identifies a divergence in the performance of different metal categories, with precious metals outperforming non-ferrous and black metals [4] Debt Market Insights - The debt market is currently in a relatively balanced range, with 30-year government bond yields around 2.3% and 10-year yields returning to the central bank's target range of approximately 1.85% [4][5] - There is limited room for further declines in short-term bond yields, as market participants shift from a bearish to a more neutral stance [5] - The report suggests that the recent buying activity from major banks, particularly in the 7-10 year maturity range, is providing crucial support for current interest rates [5] Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on high-odds, trading-oriented small metals and silver if risk preferences shift, while suggesting a focus on high-probability copper and aluminum if conditions remain stable [4][5] - The performance of perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds is highlighted as a key area to watch, with strong buying interest from specific investor segments [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that 361 Degrees has shown steady growth in revenue, while Li Ning's revenue decline has narrowed, with profit margins exceeding expectations. The company has opened 33 new stores, bringing the total to 126, which is above initial expectations for the year [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on leading home textile brands such as Water Star Home Textile and Luolai Home Textile, as well as sports brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng, which are expected to benefit from major sporting events in 2026 [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential of AI applications in consumer products, particularly in the context of AI smart glasses and 3D printing, indicating a significant growth opportunity in these areas [6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry index decreased by 1.11%, ranking 20th among 28 Shenwan industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 0.55%, ranking 15th [10] - The report notes that the revenue growth for 361 Degrees' main brand and children's clothing is approximately 10%, with e-commerce revenue growing at a high double-digit rate [5][6] Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a healthy revenue increase, while Li Ning's retail revenue saw a slight decline in the low single digits across various channels [5][6] - The report recommends monitoring companies with strong growth potential, including those in the AI and consumer goods sectors, as well as established brands in textiles and home goods [6] Industry Trends - The report indicates a recovery in the paper industry, with prices for certain types of paper expected to rebound after recent declines. It suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs and those with integrated advantages in cultural paper production [6][41] - The furniture manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with a reported 9.1% decrease in revenue year-on-year, and a significant number of companies facing losses [66][69]

Report Summary - The annual GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, achieving the annual target. Exports grew by 5.5%, consumption by 3.7%, and investment declined by 3.8%. Compared with 2024, the economic structure was further transformed, with high-tech industries standing out. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2 pct, exports decreased by 0.3 pct, and investment growth declined by 7 pct [3]. - In December, the production of the manufacturing industry improved significantly, while the growth rate of the mining industry declined. The year-on-year growth rates of the mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water industries were 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively, with changes of -0.9 pct, +1.1 pct, and -3.5 pct compared to the previous month [1]. - The service industry's business climate improved, especially the producer services. In December, the production index increased by 5% year-on-year, up 0.8 pct from the previous month. Among service industries, information software, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively, with growth rates up 1.9 pct, 2.9 pct, and 1.4 pct from the previous month [2]. - In December, the growth rate of the three major investment categories declined, but the investment growth rate of some high-tech manufacturing industries showed resilience. The investment growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate were -10.6%, -16.0%, and -35.8% respectively, down 6.1 pct, 4.0 pct, and 5.5 pct from the previous month [4]. - Real estate sales showed marginal stabilization, and new construction and completion improved. In December, the year-on-year sales volume and area of commercial housing were -23.6% and -15.6% respectively, with growth rates up 1.5 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The year-on-year unit price was -9.5%, almost the same as the previous month. In terms of investment, the new construction and completion areas of real estate improved, with year-on-year rates of -19.4% and -18.3% respectively [4]. - Consumption growth slowed down, and the year-on-year growth of catering revenue was weaker than the previous month. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 pct from the previous month and lower than the market consensus forecast of 1.48%. Both catering revenue and commodity sales declined from the previous month [4][5]. - In commodity retail, post-real estate cycle products improved, while general consumer goods weakened. In December, the sales growth rates of decoration materials, furniture, home appliances, and automobiles improved compared to the previous month. In contrast, the retail growth rates of grains, oils, beverages, office supplies, and clothing declined. Although precious metals rose rapidly in December, the sales growth rate of gold and silver jewelry declined for the second consecutive month [5]. - In the short term, interest rates showed a muted reaction to economic data. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated by only about 0.3 bp. In the medium to long term, the annual economic data was generally in line with expectations. Two trends emerged: economic structural transformation and improved internal growth momentum. For 2026, "anti-involution" and rising prices suggest limited downside for interest rates [6]. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 economic data shows that the economy achieved the growth target, with structural transformation and high-tech industry development being prominent features [3]. - In December, there were mixed trends across different sectors, with manufacturing production improving, service industry business climate rising, investment growth slowing, and consumption growth weakening [1][2][4]. - In the medium to long term, the economic structure is transforming, and internal growth momentum is improving. Interest rates are expected to have limited downside in 2026 [6].