Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000[5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, up from 4.25% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] - Market sentiment indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations for additional cuts in October and December[5][32] Market Performance - A-shares rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.24% to 3,812 points, and over 4,800 stocks gaining[18] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.43% to 25,417.98 points, driven by gains in large tech stocks[11] - U.S. stock indices showed declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.48% to 45,400 points and the S&P 500 down by 0.32% to 6,481 points[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index weakened, closing at 97.77, down 0.6%[28] - International gold prices reached a record high, surpassing $3,600 per ounce, closing at $3,624.0, up 1.3%[29] - Oil prices fell over 2%, with U.S. crude oil at $61.87 per barrel, marking the lowest level since May[29] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector saw a decline of 2.06%, while the real estate sector rose by 0.98% amid rate cut expectations[9] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector surged by 4.8%, and the materials sector rose by 4.4%[12] - The technology sector in A-shares led the market with a 3.9% increase, while the financial sector declined by 1.1%[19]

Market Overview - US ADP employment data for August showed a significant slowdown in private sector job growth, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut this month[5] - US stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising 350 points (0.77%) to close at 45,621.3, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.83% to 6,502.1, marking a new high[8] - European markets mostly closed higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.61%, driven by stabilizing bond markets and easing investor sentiment[8] Commodity and Forex Insights - EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 2.42 million barrels, leading to a decline in international oil prices[24] - The dollar index rose by 0.21% to 98.35, while gold prices fell by 0.80% to $3,577 per ounce after a six-day rally[24] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%, reflecting increased bets on a Fed rate cut[28] Real Estate and Mortgage Rates - The US housing market remains subdued, with mortgage rates above 6%, limiting affordability for buyers[5] - The spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields is expected to gradually decrease to slightly above 2% as the Fed cuts rates[5] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising 1.5% to 42,580.3, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.1%[18] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.12%, closing just above the 25,000 mark, with significant declines in technology and resource stocks[10] Sector Highlights - In the US, 10 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with Amazon shares up 4.29% following a partnership announcement, while Salesforce shares fell 4.85% due to disappointing revenue guidance[8] - In China, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the ChiNext index down 4.25% and the STAR 50 index down 6.08%[15]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3,813 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.65%[15] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.6%, with healthcare stocks leading gains, while major tech and financial stocks dragged the market down[10] - European stocks rebounded, supported by improved PMI data and stabilized bond markets, with the Euro Stoxx 600 rising 0.7%[3] Commodity and Forex Insights - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,606.10 per ounce, up 1.21%, driven by weak U.S. employment data and increased rate cut expectations[25] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.47% to $63.97 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ discussions on potential production increases[25] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 98.14, while the Japanese yen appreciated by 0.2% against the dollar[25] Economic Indicators - U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low of 7.18 million, below the expected 7.38 million, indicating a weakening labor market[5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is estimated at 95%[5] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 4.5 basis points to 4.22%[29] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector saw the largest decline, down 2.30%, while the telecommunications sector led gains, up 3.76%[8] - In Hong Kong, healthcare stocks rose by 2.1%, while technology and financial sectors faced declines of 1.6% and 0.8%, respectively[11] - The storage industry is showing signs of recovery, with demand increasing and prices rebounding, indicating a potential turning point[18]

Market Overview - In September, the Chinese stock market opened positively, with A-shares rising, led by gold stocks; the Hang Seng Index experienced fluctuations, with Alibaba (9988 HK) surging 18.5% due to strong earnings[3] - European stock markets closed higher, driven by defense and healthcare sectors; US markets were closed for Labor Day[3][9] Currency and Commodities - The USD/CNY exchange rate reached a year-low of 7.126 on August 29, indicating a strong short-term outlook for the RMB, although further catalysts are needed for it to break below 7[5] - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to maintain current production levels in their upcoming meeting, with crude oil futures showing slight fluctuations[3][27] Fixed Income - US financial markets were quiet due to the holiday, with optimistic sentiment regarding a potential Fed rate cut this month; European bond yields rose amid positive economic data[3][30] - Asian bond markets saw light trading, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads remaining stable[3] Stock Performance - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise 0.46% to 3,875 points, with a total trading volume of CNY 2.78 trillion; gold futures hit historical highs, boosting gold stocks significantly[17] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.15%, with major tech stocks leading the gains[11] Sector Insights - The electronics sector is experiencing robust growth driven by strong AI demand and domestic substitution; key segments include PCB, domestic chip leaders, and IoT[20] - In the US, companies are absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers, which may lead to localized price increases in consumer goods later this year[8]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has increased following Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to a reassessment of "rate cut trades" in US equities [9][12][13] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in September [13][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zoom, ServiceNow, and other tech companies that are likely to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts [15][16] Group 2: Taiwan Market Focus - AI remains a significant growth driver for the semiconductor industry, with Taiwan's GDP growth in Q2 2025 exceeding expectations at 7.96% [21][24] - Taiwan's exports saw a substantial increase of 42% in July, driven by strong AI demand, which is expected to enhance the performance visibility of Taiwan's AI supply chain [24][28] - Recommended stocks include Wistron and Taisil, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI demand and supply chain improvements [28][31] Group 3: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is slowing, with a revised GDP growth forecast of 4.1% for 2025, influenced by a decrease in oil and gas production [36][41] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved asset quality and liquidity, with specific attention on CIMB and Hong Leong Bank [36][46] - The "export rush" effect is diminishing, with July exports showing a 6.8% increase, but future challenges may arise from potential high tariffs on semiconductor and electronic products [41][42]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3,857 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99% and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%[14] - The U.S. PCE index for July showed a larger-than-expected increase, leading to a decrease in rate cut expectations and a drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%[8][25] - European markets declined due to geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in France, with the Stoxx 600 index falling by 0.64%[8][10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for August was 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, up 0.2[4] - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][25] - India's GDP growth for Q1 2026 was reported at 7.8%, exceeding expectations, driven by investment and fiscal spending[21] Sector Performance - In the U.S. market, six out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with the healthcare sector leading at a 0.73% increase, while the information technology sector fell by 1.63%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, with significant gains in healthcare and materials sectors, while semiconductor stocks faced declines[10] - The semiconductor sector in A-shares experienced a pullback, with stocks like Hengxuan Technology dropping by 7.8%[14] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased, nearing historical highs, amid rising geopolitical tensions and legal disputes surrounding the Federal Reserve[25] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 0.9% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.7% to $68.12 per barrel[25] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.77, with the dollar appreciating against the yuan and the euro[23]

环球市场动态 短 期 港 币 汇 率 或 偏 强 运 行 股 票 周四 A 股强势反弹，科技股领涨大 市，科创 50 指数涨 7.2%；港股三 连跌，外卖价格战拖累企业业绩， 南下资金大幅净流出；欧洲股市收 跌，市场谨慎观望地缘政治动态； 美国二季度 GDP 获得上调，标指 再创新高，市场缓慢消化英伟达 (NVDA US) 财报。 外 汇 / 商 品 俄乌达成和平协议的前景转淡，短 期内更多俄罗斯原油进入全球市场 的可能性下降，周四国际油价上涨 近 1%；投资者等待美国将公布的 通胀数据，以及特朗普与美联储理 事的法律纠纷进展，美元指数下跌 0.4%，国际金价上涨 1.2%。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌互见，前端收益率上 涨，曲线趋平。GDP 数据稳健，劳 动力数据疲软。美联储领导层关键 事件将至。7 年期债拍卖后，美债 收益率曲线进一步走平。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 8 月 29 日 ▪ 在联系汇率制度下，港元的汇率与利率表现高度依赖于美元走势与美国货币政策取向，并且也会受资本流动、 港币供需变动等影响。 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed results, with the Philippines index rising by 2.1% to 6,273 points, while the A-share and Hong Kong markets experienced declines of over 1%[3][21]. - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,565.2 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to 6,481.4 points[8][9]. Economic Indicators - From January to July, China's industrial enterprises reported total profits of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while total revenue increased by 2.3% to CNY 78.07 trillion[6]. - In July, industrial profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating that the effects of anti-involution policies on corporate profitability may take time to materialize[17]. Commodity and Currency Markets - International oil prices rose over 1% due to a decline in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, with NYMEX crude oil increasing by 1.42% to $64.15 per barrel[4][27]. - Gold prices also saw a slight increase of 0.5%, closing at $3,404.6 per ounce, amid expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end[4][27]. Corporate Performance - Nvidia's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations by 7%, with a revenue growth of 56% year-on-year, although guidance for the next quarter was slightly below market expectations[9]. - Meituan reported disappointing Q2 results, with total revenue of CNY 918 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 11.7%, and an adjusted EBITDA down 86.8% to CNY 18 billion[15]. Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector led gains with a rise of 1.15%, driven by a larger-than-expected reduction in oil inventories[9]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.27% to 25,201 points, with significant pressure on technology and property stocks[11].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% at 3,868 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.26%[18] - U.S. stocks experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,418 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.4% to 6,465 points[11] - European markets were weak, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.83% and the French CAC 40 dropping 1.7% due to political uncertainties[11] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, increasing expectations for rate cuts[6] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September has risen to nearly 90%[31] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points[6] Commodity and Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.23, while gold prices rose, reflecting market uncertainty[28] - International oil prices fell after four consecutive days of gains, with WTI crude down 2.39% to $63.25 per barrel[27] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a decline, with the 2-year yield down 4.5 basis points to 3.68% and the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.26%[31] - The yield curve steepened as short-term bonds rallied amid strong demand in the 2-year auction[31] Corporate Highlights - Bilibili reported Q2 2025 revenue of 7.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates[9] - Workday's Q2 2026 revenue reached $2.348 billion, up 14% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations[9]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.51% to 3,883 points, marking a ten-year high, and total trading volume reaching 3.18 trillion RMB, the second highest in history[19] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, with major tech stocks like Alibaba and JD.com rising over 5% and 4% respectively[13] - European markets showed weakness, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.44%, as investors awaited inflation data and trade agreement details[11] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion RMB MLF operation to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 300 billion RMB[6] - The U.S. market is focused on the upcoming PCE inflation data, with expectations of a 83% probability for a rate cut in September[32] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices rose, with WTI crude increasing by 1.79% to $64.80 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions and anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian oil[30] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.73% to 98.43, while gold prices remained stable at $3,373.8 per ounce[30] Stock Performance - Pinduoduo reported a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth to 104 billion RMB, exceeding expectations, driven by a 13% increase in online marketing services revenue[9] - The S&P 500 saw a decline of 0.43%, with nine out of eleven sectors falling, led by a 1.62% drop in consumer staples[11] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.28%, reflecting market anticipation of upcoming bond auctions[32] - Asian bond markets showed resilience, with credit spreads narrowing by 0-3 basis points[32]