Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and inventory increase, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the significant increase in costs and the relatively small real - world contradictions under low inventory, the downside space is limited. The short - term trend will continue the weak oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term and intraday views are weak oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of a weakened supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and the transaction was average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly month - on - month, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened significantly, and downstream industries have not improved. The weak demand characteristics during the off - season remain. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken, but the increase in costs and low inventory limit the downside space, and the short - term trend is a weak oscillation [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors have temporarily eased, and the central bank has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy for the consumption sector, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, and the demand for buying treasury bonds in the capital market has been suppressed. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On August 14, the central bank announced that on August 15, 2025, it would conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 6 - month (182 - day) term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5] - On August 15, the central bank conducted a 238 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate through a quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured today, the net investment on the day was 116 billion yuan [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - On August 15, 2025, stock indices showed an oscillating upward trend, with significant gains in CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for multiple days, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous rise in investors' risk appetite [3]. - Policy - side positive expectations strongly support the stock indices. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies are conducive to a moderate recovery of the price index, the repair of listed companies' profit margins, and the positive cycle of the "residents' consumption - corporate profits - employees' salaries" chain, leading to an increase in the expectation of a better macro - economic outlook [3]. - The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong confidence of leveraged investors in the market. The continuous entry of patient capital such as social security and insurance funds has also promoted the continuous recovery of long - term confidence in the stock market [3]. - In the short term, there are strong positive expectations on the domestic policy side, and external risk factors have temporarily eased. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, and the stock indices will be mainly oscillating upward in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 15, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.37% to 2.965; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.92% to 4.295; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.91% to 4.432; CSI 300 Index rose 0.70% to 4202.35; CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02% to 7117.50; 500ETF (SSE) rose 2.21% to 6.658; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 2.38% to 2.663; GEM ETF rose 2.58% to 2.509; Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.44% to 3.035; SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% to 2832.88; Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.40% to 1.16; E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 1.62% to 1.13 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: Various option products have different volume PCR and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared with the previous trading day [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: Different option products have different implied volatilities of at - the - money options in different months and 30 - trading - day historical volatilities of the underlying assets [7][8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [9][10][11]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [20][21][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 300ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 300 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [46][47][48]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend of CSI 1000 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [59][60][61]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [70][71][72]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend of SZSE 500ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [83][84][85]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend of GEM ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [94][95][96]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend of Shenzhen 100ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [107][108][109]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend of SSE 50 Index, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [120][121][122]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [133][134][135]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Include the trend of E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each term [136][137][138].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 15 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 预期现实博弈，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势震荡，录得 0.41%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 供稳需弱增局面下螺纹钢基本面持续走弱，叠加市场情绪切换，钢价承 压走弱，但成本抬升明显，且低库存下现实矛盾不大，下行空间也有 限，后续走势延续震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.20%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，得益于需求改善，热卷供需格局有所好转，库存增幅收窄，但需求 改善持续性存疑，且供应料将回升，基本面难现实质性好转，相对利好 则是成本抬升明显，下行空间受限，多空因素博弈下预计热卷价格延续 震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 1.08%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，供弱需稳局面下矿石基本面表现尚可，且钢厂盈利状况良好，需求 韧性较好，给予矿价支撑，相对利空则是估值偏高以及市场情绪转弱， 短期矿价延续高位调整态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with rising positions and stood above the 79,000 mark again. In July, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The weakening of the US dollar index may support copper prices. The copper price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and the import window is open. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 79,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend with the open interest rising to 600,000 contracts. The upstream bauxite continued to accumulate inventory, the intermediate electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up. With neutral macro and positive industry factors, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with the open interest rising to 200,000 contracts. The main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The continuous increase in nickel ore port inventory exerts pressure on nickel prices. With neutral macro and weak industry support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 15th, the average spot premium in Shandong region reported a discount of 140 yuan/ton. Downstream processing enterprises continued the rigid - demand procurement mode, and the terminal demand did not improve significantly, with the market activity remaining flat [8]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15th, the total bauxite inventory in 9 domestic ports reached 23.85 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons from the previous week. On August 14th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and 54,000 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Nickel**: On August 15th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,900 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,000 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [24][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with an expanding inventory increase. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded. The average daily hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills this week increased month - on - month, remaining at a relatively high level this year, providing support for ore prices. However, steel profits are shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. [2] - Port ore arrivals have declined again, and overseas miners' shipments continue to be weak. Overseas ore supply is relatively weak recently, in line with seasonal characteristics, but its persistence at high ore prices is not strong and will recover later. Domestic ore supply has rebounded from a low level, and it is expected that iron ore supply will increase steadily. [2] - In the situation of weak supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are okay, and steel mills have good profitability and strong demand resilience, supporting ore prices. The relative negatives are high valuations and weakening market sentiment. In the short term, ore prices will continue to adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,819.27, a week - on - week increase of 107.00, a monthly increase of 161.37, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,215.83. [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,136.34, a week - on - week increase of 123.00, a monthly increase of 124.25, and a year - on - year increase of 66.36. [1] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,381.90, a week - on - week decrease of 125.90, a monthly increase of 141.40, and a year - on - year increase of 27.20. [1] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,046.70, a week - on - week decrease of 15.10, a monthly decrease of 154.20, and a year - on - year increase of 82.00. [1] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production is 240.66, a week - on - week increase of 0.34, a monthly decrease of 0.05, and a year - on - year increase of 11.89. [1] - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 334.67, a week - on - week increase of 12.82, a monthly increase of 31.96, and a year - on - year increase of 12.85. [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 298.52, a week - on - week increase of 0.37, a monthly decrease of 0.94, and a year - on - year increase of 18.03. [1] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 115.33, a week - on - week increase of 19.97, a monthly increase of 26.53, and a year - on - year increase of 31.35. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved. The production of plate mills has stabilized. With decent profit per ton of the product, the supply is expected to stabilize and rebound. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, but the improvement's sustainability is in doubt. The inventory increase has narrowed, but the fundamentals are unlikely to see substantial improvement. Due to the significant cost increase, the downside space is limited. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue the volatile trend, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 315.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons, and a decrease of 7.20 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 14.22 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of last month, and an increase of 0.61 percentage points compared with the same period [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 314.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.25 million tons from the end of last month, and an increase of 26.55 million tons compared with the same period. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 86.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the end of last month, and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared with the same period [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 357.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, an increase of 9.52 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 93.06 million tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory is 79.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10 million tons, an increase of 0.68 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 11.90 million tons compared with the same period. The social inventory is 277.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26 million tons, an increase of 8.84 million tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 81.16 million tons compared with the same period [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the non - ferrous metals sector declined slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. Copper showed strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector due to its strong financial attributes and the decline of the US dollar index, which was beneficial to copper prices. The trading volume of lead decreased significantly, accompanied by a rebound in futures prices, indicating a strong willingness of previous short - sellers to close their positions. Non - ferrous metal inventories are generally in a state of high overseas and low domestic, reflecting the strong domestic and weak overseas demand. Currently, the domestic industry is in the off - season, with the inventory of upstream mines rising and the middle and downstream showing a trend of inventory accumulation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The report provides charts on copper futures price trends, 1 electrolytic copper premium and discount seasonality, copper concentrate port inventory, copper product开工率, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [6][11][8]. Aluminum - It includes charts on aluminum futures price trends, aluminum premium and discount seasonality, bauxite port inventory, aluminum product开工率, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [18][23][20]. Zinc - The report presents charts on zinc futures price trends, zinc premium and discount seasonality, zinc concentrate port inventory, galvanizing开工率, refined zinc social inventory, and galvanized sheet total inventory [30][40][31]. Lead - Charts on lead futures price trends, lead premium and discount seasonality, lead concentrate port inventory, lead开工率, lead social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are provided [42][46][43]. Tin - It has charts on tin futures price trends, tin premium and discount seasonality, tin concentrate price, tin ore processing fees, refined tin social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [54][60][56]. Nickel - The report includes charts on nickel futures price trends, nickel spot - futures spread seasonality, nickel ore port inventory, nickel iron开工率, nickel social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [66][72][68].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. With stable production of construction steel mills, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, but the supply pressure is still likely to increase due to good profit per ton. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, with both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions at low levels in recent years. The off - season fundamentals continue to deteriorate, inventory has increased substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. Although the recent cost increase limits the downward space, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Data Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 220.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased by 54.08 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.61 percentage points [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 189.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.85 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union's building materials transactions was 10.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18. Both are at low levels in recent years, and the off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 587.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.51 tons. The in - plant inventory was 172.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.06 tons, and the social inventory was 414.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.45 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased by 103.37 tons, the in - plant inventory decreased by 9.25 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 94.12 tons [1].