投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 供需格局未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 铁矿石供需格局表现偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，需求 弱势格局未变，易承压矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但仍是 年内高位，海外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting an overall oscillatory approach for both [1] - For coking coal, the supply side is the core factor driving the market, with supply improving marginally and limited further downside expected [5] - For coke, the weakening cost support and inventory increase lead to a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is supply improvement and continuous decline [1] - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is weakening cost support and weak operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [5] - The core logic is that the supply side dominates the market. Energy supply guarantee reduces the expectation of anti - involution measures, production is not affected by inspections, and imports are accelerating, leading to a supply improvement since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting and year - end production cut expectations, the further decline space is limited [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [6] - As of November 28, the combined daily production of coking plants and steel mills increased by 1.19 million tons week - on - week, the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 million tons week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%. The overall inventory increased by 4.05 million tons week - on - week. The weakening of coking coal market drags down the coke futures, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view of the stock index futures is range - bound in the short term due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors, with the current market main line unclear. For IH2512, the short - term and medium - term views are both oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the fermentation of policy - favorable expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to liquidate [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. Last Friday, each stock index rebounded oscillatory, with IM and IC showing strong performance. The full - market turnover of the stock market was 1.59 trillion yuan, a contraction of 125.7 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The latest macro data in October showed marginal weakness, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. However, there are still strong expectations of policy - side benefits, and long - term funds are still entering the market. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas and the cooling of the investment bubble risk of AI assets have also contributed to the rebound of the stock index. But there is less incremental information on the policy side before the Central Economic Work Conference in December, so the upward driving force of the stock index is insufficient [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "震荡" (fluctuation). In December, the supply - demand of thermal coal is expected to be in overall balance, with a year - on - year decline in production, stable imports, and a seasonal increase in demand. The price of 5500K coal is expected to fluctuate strongly above 800 yuan, supported by the replenishment demand of downstream terminals during the peak season [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "震荡", and the core logic is that the domestic coal price has stabilized and declined after the terminal enterprises' replenishment demand was fulfilled in late November. The year - end production is expected to be in a negative growth pattern, while the demand in the southern region will increase in December during the peak winter heating season, which will support the coal price [1][4] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: In late November, after the terminal enterprises' replenishment demand was fulfilled, the domestic coal price started to stabilize and decline. The production in November and December 2024 had a high base, and the weekly production data of Mysteel's thermal coal in the first two weeks of November did not improve significantly compared with October. It is expected that the year - end thermal coal production will maintain a negative growth pattern. In December, the southern region will enter the peak winter heating season, driving up the coal consumption of coastal power plants, which is expected to support the coal price. Overall, in December, the supply - demand of thermal coal is expected to be in balance, with a year - on - year decline in production, stable imports, and a seasonal increase in demand. The price of 5500K coal is expected to fluctuate strongly above 800 yuan, supported by the downstream terminal's replenishment demand during the peak season [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending November 28, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1008 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%, with steel mills facing widespread losses. Coke inventory increased overall this week, with accumulations in both independent coking plants and steel mills, and the total industrial chain inventory reached 8.8468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Cost support was the main driver for the previous coke price increase, but recently, with the marginal increase in the actual supply of coking coal, the coking coal market atmosphere has weakened, dragging down the continuous correction of coke futures. Future focus should be on the actual production cuts of coal mines in December [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: There is no significant difference in the demand side of coking coal, and the supply side is the core factor guiding the current market trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. In addition, the recent coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume has accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic that previously supported the coal price increase. The market atmosphere has gradually faded, and coking coal futures have been continuously correcting since November. Overall, the coking coal supply improved marginally in November, and the strong supply - side expectation slowed down. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected year - end coal mine production cuts, it is expected that the further downward space for coking coal futures is limited. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation in the producing areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index extended its gains to a two - year high, rising for the 11th consecutive trading day, supported by the increase in the capesize vessel freight index. It rose 79 points or 3.3% to 2480 points, the highest level since December 2023. The capesize vessel freight index rose 238 points or 6% to 4236 points, the highest since March 2024, and the daily earnings of capesize vessels increased by $1973 to $35,133. The panamax vessel freight index fell 2 points or 0.2% to 1962 points, and the daily earnings of panamax vessels decreased by $31 to $17,655. The supramax bulk carrier freight index rose 2 points or 0.1% to 1437 points [9]. - **Mongolian Coking Coal Auction**: On November 28, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The 1/3 coking raw coal with A14.3, V29.6, S0.8, G79.1, and Mt3.4 had a starting price of $75 per ton, and all 102,400 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $101.5 per ton (excluding tax). The supply location is the customs supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being February 25, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke Prices**: The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,670 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly increase of 6.37% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year decrease of 1.18% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.70% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port decreased by 2.03% to 1,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 6.45% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year decrease of 10.49% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.17% compared to the same period [14]. - **Coking Coal Prices**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 7.91% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 8.47% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 1.26% to 1,570 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 5.42% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 5.37% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.68% compared to the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 4.47% to 1,710 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 1.72% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 11.76% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% compared to the same period [14]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke Futures**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99%. The highest price was 1,599.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,562.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 20,980 lots, an increase of 5,174 lots compared to the previous period, the open interest was 35,266 lots, and the position change was an increase of 1,953 lots [15]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%. The highest price was 1,074.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,053.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 505,376 lots, an increase of 47,555 lots compared to the previous period, the open interest was 449,323 lots, and the position change was a decrease of 3,013 lots [15]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke inventory, and total coke inventory over different time periods [16][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the coking coal inventory at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over different time periods [22][25][27]. - **Other Charts**: There are charts showing domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including coal washing plant clean coal inventory and开工率), and coking plant开工率 and ton - coke profit [29][30][34]. 3.5后市研判 (Outlook and Judgment) - **Coke**: The situation is the same as the core view on coke, with attention on the actual production cuts of coal mines in December [35]. - **Coking Coal**: The situation is the same as the core view on coking coal, with expectations that the further downward space for coking coal futures is limited and focus on the production situation in the producing areas [36].

Group 1: Report Overview - The research report is a daily report on lithium carbonate dated November 28, 2025, prepared by Long Aoming from the Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of stabilization with upward trends in both futures and spot prices over the past 10 trading days. There is also a shift of some inventory from the end - users to the mid - stream, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment [4] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 96,420 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day, and showed an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4] Spot Market - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 93,780 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day, and had an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4] Basis Analysis - The current basis was - 2,620 points, indicating a negative basis (spot discount), which strengthened by 1,060 points from the previous day, and the basis had strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days [4] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 5,441 lots, a decrease of 21,340 lots (-79.68%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts had decreased overall in the past 10 trading days [4] Supply - Demand Relationship - Some inventory has shifted from end - users to the mid - stream, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment [4] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - Price Comparison Futures - The main contract closing price was 96,420 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan from the previous day and 5,400 yuan from the previous week. The main contract settlement price was 96,400 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan from the previous day but up 3,240 yuan from the previous week [6] Lithium Ore - Different types of lithium ore, such as Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian lithium spodumene, and various grades of lithium mica, showed different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6] Lithium Compounds - The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 93,780 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day and 1,420 yuan from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide had similar upward trends [6] Downstream Products - Prices of downstream products like ternary materials, electrolytes, and cathode materials also had different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6] Group 5: Related Charts Ore and Lithium Prices - Charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, and lithium hydroxide [8][9] Cathode and Ternary Materials - Charts display the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][12][14] Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures - Charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [16][17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.71%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓收 缩。现阶段，供需双弱局面下基本面表现尚可，库存延续去化，但需求 季节性走弱，现实格局依然偏弱，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是估值偏 低，短期走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.27%日涨幅，移仓换月中，量仓 收缩。目前来看，热卷供应压力未退，而需求有所走弱，基本面表现偏 弱， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and its main contract price reached the 87,500 yuan mark, while LME copper hit the $11,000 mark. Despite the stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively, with a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been decreasing this week, and the spot premium has strengthened, supporting the copper price. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated upwards today, with a slight increase in open interest, and its main contract price reached the 21,600 yuan mark. The US dollar index oscillated and stabilized, while non - ferrous metals rose across the board, creating a good bullish atmosphere. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been decreasing since this week, supporting the aluminum price. In the short term, the aluminum price rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but the change in open interest was small, indicating low capital attention [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price soared in the morning and then declined, oscillating narrowly above 117,000 yuan during the day. Although non - ferrous metals rose across the board, the nickel price performed relatively weakly. The spot premium of nickel decreased slightly. Against the backdrop of the strong performance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the liquidation of previous short positions may keep the nickel price in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Using aluminum instead of copper in air - conditioning products can significantly reduce manufacturing costs, especially for the price - sensitive mid - and low - end markets. Major air - conditioning brands have jointly issued an industry standard for aluminum substitution of copper. Rising copper prices may further promote the implementation of this substitution in the domestic air - conditioning industry [9]. - **Aluminum**: JPMorgan Chase expects that due to the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with the overall market balance and the short - term risk of supply decline, the aluminum price is expected to approach $3,000 per ton in Q1 2026. However, Indonesia has a vast aluminum supply channel, and its production capacity growth is about to reach a critical point in 2026. This emerging supply growth trend may eventually offset the rise in aluminum prices, but this impact will not be apparent until 2026 and the following years. On November 27, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10][11]. - **Nickel**: On November 28, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 119,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum bar inventory, etc [24][26][31]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of the stock index futures are mainly range - bound, with a weak intraday view. The main reason is that the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened due to weak policy signals, and the willingness of funds to liquidate and leave the market temporarily has increased. However, there are still strong support forces for the stock index, such as the strong expectation of future policy benefits and the unchanged trend of long - term funds entering the market. Overall, the current market main line is not clear, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the willingness of funds to liquidate has increased in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the stock index rose and then fell yesterday, with the whole - market turnover shrinking by 93.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Due to weak policy signals, overseas Fed rate - cut expectations, and AI investment bubble risks, the willingness of funds to liquidate and leave temporarily has increased. Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October 2025 has slowed down, and the consumption and investment data in October have weakened, the expectation of future policy benefits is still strong, and the support force for the stock index is strong. Therefore, the stock index will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]