1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending November 28, the total daily coke output of all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 110,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. The steel mill profitability rate dropped 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%, with widespread losses. Coke inventory increased overall this week. With uncertainties in coking coal supply in December, there is resistance to further decline in coke futures, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the trading range [6][34]. - For coking coal, the demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor guiding the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced market expectations of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Coking coal output was not affected by the inspection, and imports accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic. Since November, coking coal futures have been in a correction. However, considering the December Political Bureau economic meeting and the year - end production cut expectations, there is resistance to further decline, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous trading range [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Guangzhou launched 102 urban renewal projects on November 28, with a total investment of about 807.7 billion yuan, covering various types such as old - community renovation, dilapidated - building reconstruction, and infrastructure upgrading [8]. - On December 1, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main - coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | | Monthly Change | | Annual Change | | Year - on - Year Change | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Last Weekend | Change Rate | Last Month End | Change Rate | Last Year End | Change Rate | Same - Period Value | Change Rate | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1,670 | 1,670 | 0.00% | 1,570 | 6.37% | 1,690 | - 1.18% | 1,790 | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | 1,480 | - 2.03% | 1,550 | - 6.45% | 1,620 | - 10.49% | 1,670 | - 13.17% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 | 1,280 | 0.00% | 1,390 | - 7.91% | 1,180 | 8.47% | 1,330 | - 3.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,570 | 1,590 | - 1.26% | 1,660 | - 5.42% | 1,490 | 5.37% | 1,630 | - 3.68% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,710 | 1,790 | - 4.47% | 1,740 | - 1.72% | 1,530 | 11.76% | 1,700 | 0.59% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | High Price | Low Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,574.5 | - 1.99 | 1,599.0 | 1,562.0 | 20,980 | 5,174 | 35,266 | 1,953 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.0 | - 0.79 | 1,074.0 | 1,053.0 | 505,376 | 47,555 | 449,323 | - 3,013 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report shows various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][27][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for coke, considering production, inventory, and supply - side uncertainties, there is resistance to further decline in futures, and the focus is on actual coal - mine production. For coking coal, the supply side is the key factor, and although the market has been in a correction, there is resistance to further decline due to policy and production - cut expectations, with the focus on coal - mine production [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 1 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价反弹，金银比值下行明显 核心观点 上周金价上行，接近 11 月中旬高位，纽约金站上 4200 美元，沪 金站上 950 元关口。金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续 升温，美元指数高位回落。截至 11 月 30 日，市场预期 12 月美联储降 息概率已接近 90%，美元指数上周也是从 100 关口持续走弱。 短期临近美联储12月议息会议，美联储处于静默期，市场降息预 期可能维持，对应美元指数维持弱势运行，预计金价偏强运行。但中 长期金价走势相较于白银明显疲软，金银比值持续下行，美股也持续 走强，这很大程度上是市场风险偏好切换所致。技术上，可关注11月 中旬高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-01 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货供需预期改善，驱动甲醇期价反弹主要有四方面原因：其一，伊朗限 气政策落地。11 月下旬伊朗进入冬季采暖季，天然气供应受限导致甲醇装置减产，12 月进口量预计 环比减少 50%，1 月或 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - Gold is recommended to be on the sidelines, with short - term strength, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation with a bias towards strength. The core logic is the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The rising price is mainly driven by the continuous heating up of Fed rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is recommended to be long - term bullish, with short - term oscillation, medium - term strength, and intraday strength. The rising price benefits from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index, along with the differentiation of electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price went up, approaching the high in early November. New York gold reached above $4200, and Shanghai gold exceeded the 950 - yuan mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The continuous heating up of the Fed rate cut expectation led to the weakening of the US dollar index. As of November 30, the market expected the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to be close to 90%, and the US dollar index weakened from the 100 - mark last week [3]. - **Market Performance**: In the short term, the gold price is expected to be strong, but it is weaker than silver, possibly due to the switching of market risk preferences [3]. Copper - **Price Situation**: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in position and went up significantly. On Friday night, the copper price continued to rise. LME copper broke through the $11,000 mark and the previous high, and Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: It benefited from the Fed rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. In the industry, the electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad were differentiated, with marginal inventory accumulation overseas and marginal inventory reduction in China, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Shanghai copper increased in position and went up, with strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high point at the end of October [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are all "shock - strong", with the core logic being that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - strong", and the overall view reference is "shock - strong". The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock. The calculation of price increase and decrease amplitude is based on specific rules [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures prices have strengthened, driving the spot price of steel to rise over the weekend, but the trading volume is average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed much. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and supply has shrunk again, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand is weakly stable. Weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly, and high - frequency daily trading volume has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and subsequent demand will seasonally decline, dragging down steel prices. Although market sentiment has warmed up due to the approaching major meeting, driving steel prices to rebound from lows, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, the upward driving force is questionable, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that on one hand, the marginal weakening of macro data in October indicates that the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. On the other hand, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly show volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The driving factors include the weakening of October macro data and the low difficulty of achieving the annual growth target [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is under pressure from high domestic inventory and weak demand, with limited upside potential, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the downside, resulting in a continued short - term pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [5]. - The palm oil market is currently dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term, with a "weak reality" and "strong expectation" scenario, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand situation, with high oil refinery operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing due to breeding losses, and their inventories are sufficient, mainly replenishing on a just - in - time basis. This leads to a negative basis. The high inventory and weak demand in the domestic industry chain limit the rebound space, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the decline space [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating strongly; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term. Delayed shipments have changed inventory and trade flows. The market is looking forward to whether Indonesia will continue to promote or increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio. If the policy is implemented, it will boost Indonesia's industrial consumption of palm oil, reduce export volume, and support prices [7]. Other Relevant Information - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium weakens, but with the arrival of the winter consumption peak in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand for crude oil is expected to improve, and the supply - demand structure of the oil market is expected to get better, so the domestic crude oil futures may continue to run strongly on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term view of the crude oil 2601 contract is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1] Driving Logic - The expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakens the driving force for the continued rebound of international oil prices, while the arrival of the winter consumption peak in the Northern Hemisphere improves the crude oil demand expectation and the supply - demand structure of the oil market [5] Market Performance - Last Friday night, domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillatory and slightly rebounding trend under the dominance of a bullish atmosphere [5]