Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next by the IEA, the demand growth rate has declined [5]. - As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak trend on the night of last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is weakly oscillating, and the intraday view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also weakly oscillating [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report indicates that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, and OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, leading to a weak trend in crude oil futures prices [1][5]. 3.3 Price Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.98% to 484.1 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from August 11 to August 15, 2025, shows a trend of change, with values of - 115.4, - 113.4, - 108.4, - 106.4, and - 103.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and spread are provided from August 11 to August 15, 2025 [6] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 11 to August 15, 2025, show different trends of change [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented [9] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [9] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [19] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [26] - **London Market**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on August 15, 2025, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given [37] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation on the weaker side [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation on the weaker side, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.86% to 2409 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation - on - the - weaker - side trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. High supply pressure at home and abroad and off - season downstream demand lead to a weak supply - demand structure and a downward - moving price center [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of the US - Ukraine and Russia - Ukraine situations, which puts pressure on the gold price [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish view as the macro - environment warms up, the copper price stabilizes and rebounds, and the market risk preference may continue to rise, along with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: decline; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and weakening [1] - **Core Logic**: On August 15 local time, the US and Russian presidents met in Alaska, with positive evaluations but no agreements. Ukraine's President Zelensky will meet with Trump on the 18th, and EU, NATO, and European leaders will also have a meeting at the White House on the 18th. The easing of US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine relations over the weekend puts pressure on the gold price [3] Copper - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rise; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and strengthening [1] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the copper price fluctuated upward. After the US - Russia presidential meeting on August 15, the relations between the two countries improved, and the market risk preference may continue to rise. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the industry is approaching the peak season, so the futures price is expected to strengthen [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being that the demand has some resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. Steel mill production is stabilizing, the terminal consumption of ore has increased, and demand remains at a relatively high level, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking [2]. - Domestic port ore arrivals have declined again, and miner shipments have also slightly decreased. Short - term overseas ore supply is low, but its sustainability at high ore prices is questionable. Meanwhile, domestic ore supply has increased, and the overall ore supply is expected to rise [2]. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the valuation is high with weak upward driving force [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are mostly "oscillating strongly". The core logics involve factors such as raw material cost support, policy influence, and supply - demand relationships [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, the pattern is hard to change before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. Due to the disturbance of Sino - US trade relations and the transfer of funds, the futures price of soybean meal has high - level fluctuations, with short - term oscillation and strong tendency and the repair of internal - external price difference [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The July supply - demand data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is neutral to positive. Indonesia and Malaysia have raised export tariffs, supporting price resilience. The Indonesian biodiesel policy provides long - term support for prices. Domestic palm oil futures prices follow international trends and are prone to rise in the short term [7]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm (2601) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is related to biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Meal (2601) - **View**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The domestic thermal coal price is expected to remain strong. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and with high temperatures persisting in mid - to late August, coal prices are likely to maintain a bullish trend [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - As of August 14, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 1.183 million tons, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by factors such as rainfall in major producing areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply has been slow [5]. Demand - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,500 tons [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures will be significantly higher in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeastern part of Southwest China. Hydropower substitution may still be limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut, the rising risk appetite in the stock market, and the resulting inhibition of bond - buying demand [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, short - term (within a week): oscillation; medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillation; intraday: weakly oscillating; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy interest rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, and the central bank's loan discount policy for the consumption field makes the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut low. The rising risk appetite in the stock market leads to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying bonds [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601 are mainly in the range of "oscillation", with intraday views being "oscillation on the stronger side" [1][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - For Jiao Coal, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the "anti - involution" campaign is set by the Central Financial and Economic Commission and is actively responded to by multiple industries. The oversupply situation in the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, and the price center has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] - For Coke, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply and demand of Coke are both increasing, and the fundamentals are stable. Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal. The market expectation has improved, and the futures price of Coke is more likely to rise than to fall [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The industry's supply - demand relationship is expected to gradually balance through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, but the risk lies in the insufficient implementation of policies [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The market expectation has improved due to supply - side news disturbances, and the futures price is easy to rise, with the main negative factor being the insufficient reduction in coking coal supply [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, with the stock market risk preference continuously rising [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and strong, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the favorable policy - side expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes showed a volatile upward trend, with obvious increases in IC and IM. The stock market trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. Policy - side favorable expectations support the stock index, and policies such as anti - involution and consumption promotion are conducive to the recovery of the price index and corporate profits. The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and patient capital such as social security and insurance is continuously entering the market, boosting long - term confidence [5]