说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局未好转，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗持续走弱，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，矿石需 求弱势难改。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但依旧是年内高位，海 外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多因素发酵支撑矿价震荡 走高，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures are expected to continue the wide - range volatile pattern. The current supply has a seasonal contraction expectation, the demand remains optimistic, and the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts provides some support for the rubber price. The market is expected to show a volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to marginal changes such as Southeast Asian weather, domestic automobile and tire industry demand recovery, and inventory accumulation speed [2][4] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the Shanghai rubber futures have shown a range - bound consolidation trend, with the main contract 2601 fluctuating widely between 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [2] Macroeconomic Impact - The release of the weak US September non - farm payrolls data has cooled the global financial market risk appetite and increased the expectation of global demand shrinkage. Since the demand side of Shanghai rubber highly depends on tire exports, the weakening global economy will directly weaken the overseas tire market demand and drag down the fundamental support [2] Supply Situation - The Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the peak tapping season. The glue production in northeastern Thailand is steadily increasing, while the southern part has more rainfall, which intermittently hinders tapping operations. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas will gradually stop tapping in December, and although the domestic glue output accounts for less than 6% of the global total, the event will relieve the pressure on the whole latex market from the emotional and local supply sides [2] Inventory Status - The rubber inventories inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone have accumulated for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 452,600 tons in mid - November. However, the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts last week pushed the inventory to a new low in recent years. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the weekly inventory of Shanghai rubber futures dropped to 78,675 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 79,463 tons, a 41.16% decline from the average of the past 3 years; the weekly registered warehouse receipts dropped to 39,600 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 68,870 tons, a 63.73% decline from the average of the past 3 years [3] Demand Situation - The core area of rubber demand is the tire industry, which is highly related to the automobile market. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The domestic heavy - truck market has maintained a high - growth rhythm, with sales of about 93,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year - on - year increase of 40%, and the cumulative sales from January to October reaching 916,000 vehicles, with the annual sales likely to exceed one million and even approach 1.1 million [3][4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 向上驱动有限，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 观点参考 品种：焦炭（J） 日内观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所走弱，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应小幅收缩，但短流程钢厂利润迎改善，减 产持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求有所走弱，周度表需环比微降，而高频每日成交趋稳， 两者依旧是近年来同期低位，且下游行业表现偏弱，需求料将季节性走弱，继而拖累钢价。总之， 供需双弱局面下基本面表现尚可，库存延续去化，但需求季节性走弱，现实格局依然偏弱，钢价继 续承压，相对利好则是估值偏低，短期走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 | 品种 | 短期 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is volatile consolidation, with the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreasing and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still existing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly volatile consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, yesterday's Treasury bond futures were volatile. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1.9% but a decline in performance. Combined with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for additional monetary policy at the end of the year, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Focus on the statement of monetary policy in the December key meeting [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment has warmed up, and crude oil is oscillating strongly [1]. - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. As the market is worried about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium in the oil market has retreated. On Thursday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices, and it is expected that they may maintain a bullish trend on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Category Price and Market Performance - For domestic crude oil futures, on Thursday night, they maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factor: The significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US has led to a weakening of macro sentiment [5]. - Supply - demand factor: OPEC's latest quarterly report has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", increasing the expectation of loose supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The market's worry about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has led to the retreat of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Also, the short - term market has fully priced in the December interest rate cut, and there is significant technical pressure at the previous high levels [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is the macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts. There is significant selling pressure at certain price levels, and there is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price movement: Recently, the gold price has been oscillating with a slight upward bias. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening US dollar index provide upward momentum, but the upward trend has slowed down. It may tend to oscillate [3]. - Technical analysis: New York gold faces significant technical pressure near the previous high of $4200, corresponding to the 950 - yuan mark of domestic Shanghai gold [3]. Copper - Price movement: Recently, Shanghai copper has been oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the trading volume has increased significantly. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan for domestic copper and at the $11,000 mark for London copper [4]. - Macro - level: The US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices, but it faces significant pressure at the 100 mark [4]. - Industry situation: There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas marginal inventory accumulation and domestic marginal inventory reduction. The spot premium of Shanghai copper has strengthened slightly [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly on November 29, 2025, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the cutting season, the expected supply of domestic full - latex is decreasing. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data last weekend. There are short - term long - short differences in the rubber market. On the night of Thursday this week, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend with a slight rebound. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: strong. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay. The slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on the night of Thursday this week weakened the impetus for the synthetic rubber futures to continue to rebound. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Benefiting from the stable rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, with a slight increase. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Friday [7].

公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 206.08 -1.88 212.59 -6.51 227.88 -21.80 高炉产能利用率（%） 87.98 -0.60 88.61 -0.63 87.80 0.18 表观需求量 227.94 -2.85 232.18 -4.24 225.35 2.59 钢联建材成交周均值 10.46 0.42 10.43 0.03 11.38 -0.92 总库存 531.48 -21.86 602.52 -71.04 447.64 83.84 厂内库存 146.73 -6.59 171.71 -24.98 145.25 1.48 社会库存 384.75 -15.27 430.81 -46.06 302.39 82.36 螺纹钢周度数据（20251128） 螺纹钢供需两端有所走弱，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹钢周产量 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 ...