Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. With stable production of construction steel mills, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, but the supply pressure is still likely to increase due to good profit per ton. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, with both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions at low levels in recent years. The off - season fundamentals continue to deteriorate, inventory has increased substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. Although the recent cost increase limits the downward space, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Data Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 220.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased by 54.08 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.61 percentage points [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 189.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.85 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union's building materials transactions was 10.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18. Both are at low levels in recent years, and the off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 587.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.51 tons. The in - plant inventory was 172.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.06 tons, and the social inventory was 414.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.45 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased by 103.37 tons, the in - plant inventory decreased by 9.25 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 94.12 tons [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 焦煤 关注"反内卷"政策执行力度 6 月，全国安全生产月之初，煤矿事故引发主产区安监加码，加上彼时炼焦煤价格已处 2017 年以来的低位，部分煤矿经营压力较大。成本支撑、安监预期，以及市场短期调整等因 素叠加，推动焦煤期货于 6 月 3 日见底后企稳走强。 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议明确提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导 企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"，旨在通过供给侧结构性改革遏制恶性价格战， 优化行业集中度。供应过剩的煤炭行业，成为市场关注焦点之一。 此后，国家能源局综合司、煤炭行业协会"反内卷"消息利好陆续兑现，焦煤中长期基本面 预期好转，叠加中美贸易关系缓和以及雅鲁藏布江超级水电工程开建等阶段性利多因素支撑， 焦煤期货在 7 月加速上行。8 月 14 日，焦煤期货主力合约报收 1204 元/吨，较 6 月 3 日的低 点累计上涨 69.8%。 供应端存支撑因素 8 月以来，焦煤供应端受消息面的影响不断。8 月 6 日，钢联求证市场关注的"某煤业关 于下发 276 工作日生产组织方案试行通知"这一消息。据 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both沪胶 and合成胶, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillate", and the intraday view is "oscillate weakly", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 沪胶 (RU) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic沪胶 futures 2601 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 15,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the沪胶 futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [5] 合成胶 (BR) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.10% to 11,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [7]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% [1] - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively, up from 5.9% and 1.1% in the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - In July 2025, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with non - bank deposits increasing significantly, indicating a trend of residents' deposits moving to financial products [2] - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again as the US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, and Fed officials opposed a large - scale rate cut [2] 2.2 Metals - On August 14, international precious metal futures generally closed down, but US Treasury Secretary's call for rate cuts supported the precious metal market [4] - A Chinese research team developed high - energy - density soft - pack cells and module batteries [4] - Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves increased to $686.4 billion as of August 8 [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - DCE restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures contracts from August 15 [6] - A Shandong coking enterprise plans to cut production, expected to affect about 41,000 tons of coke output [6] - As of early August, the price of coking coal increased by 3.64% month - on - month, reaching a new high since December 2024 [6] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 14, US oil futures rose due to geopolitical risks, despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [9] - In August, the international crude oil market showed a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of early August, the price of soybean meal increased, while the prices of live pigs and cotton decreased [11] - The central government allocated 1.146 billion yuan for agricultural disaster prevention and relief [11] - The overall food safety situation was stable in the first half of 2025 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 14, the central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [13] - On August 15, the central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to inject medium - and long - term funds [13] 3.2 Key News - As of August 14, the net inflow of bond ETFs this year reached 300.308 billion yuan, with the total scale exceeding 536.342 billion yuan [15] - Local state - owned assets have been actively acquiring listed companies this year, aiming at industry integration and upgrading [17] - The sales performance of real estate enterprises showed signs of stopping decline, and the new housing market is expected to stabilize further [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank bond yields generally rose, and treasury bond futures closed down [19] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [19] - The yields of European and US bonds generally increased [22][23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 25 points, and the US dollar index rose 0.42% [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the bond market to fluctuate and then break through downward, possibly in the fourth quarter [25] - CICC Fixed - Income is optimistic about the domestic bond market, expecting bond yields to break through downward [25] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the bond market has no major positive factors in the short term but limited risk of significant adjustment [25] 4. Stock Market Key News - On Thursday, the A - share market fell, with over 4,600 stocks declining [28] - The Hong Kong stock market also fell, and the number of margin trading investors reached a new high this year [28][29] - There are rumors about a possible minimum market - value threshold for Hong Kong IPOs, but the trend of A + H listings is expected to continue [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With the postponement of the Sino - US tariff talks, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, a slight year - on - year decline in the output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries, and better - than - expected sales in the domestic auto market, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - level - The Sino - US tariff risk is temporarily lifted as the two countries decided to suspend high - tariff implementation for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - The "dovish" power within the Fed is increasing, with Trump nominating officials to promote rate cuts. The market expects a 91.5% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September, which improves the macro sentiment and lifts the rubber futures price [3]. Supply - side - Due to low new rubber planting areas in the past decade, the actual output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries in 2025 has been declining year - on - year. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 91.15 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons (5.20%). From January to June 2025, the total production was 473.92 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.25 tons (2.21%) [4]. Demand - side - In July 2025, the domestic auto market showed a non - off - season performance. The production and sales of automobiles were 259.1 and 259.3 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively [5]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 83,000, the second - highest level in the same period in the past 8 years. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol market is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and volatile and weak respectively. The price of the methanol 2601 futures contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly 0.69% lower at 2442 yuan/ton on Thursday night [5]. Core Logic - With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - The domestic coal futures price is in a volatile and weak trend, which also affects the methanol market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Movement and View - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.95% to 490.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night, but it is expected to lack the momentum to continue rising on Friday and may maintain a weakly volatile trend [5]. Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term view is "interval oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", with an overall reference view of "oscillation" [1]. - Jiao Coal: Due to the interplay of multiple and bearish factors, it is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the short - term, and the key lies in the long - term and obvious impact of anti - involution rectification on Jiao Coal supply [1][5]. - Coke: After the sixth round of price increase was implemented, the spot market remains optimistic. With the supply of coking coal at the cost end being disturbed, it is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain interval oscillation in the near future [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1190.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.48%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1167 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution policies in the coal industry are being implemented one after another. As the futures price returns to a high level, market games increase. The short - term trend is interval oscillation [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.23% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented this week, and the optimistic atmosphere in the spot market continues. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable recently, and the supply of coking coal at the cost end is disturbed. The futures price has pulled back at the 1750 yuan/ton level. It is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the near future [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Iron Ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA20. The core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. - The current supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Currently, the iron ore fundamentals are good under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support level of MA20, and the core logic is the market sentiment shift and the high - level adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has shifted, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals and a high - level decline in ore prices. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The steel mills' production is stable, the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased, and the steel mills' profitability is good, so the demand remains at a relatively high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production has weakened, resulting in weak ore supply. Under the situation of weak supply and stable demand, the iron ore fundamentals are good, but the relatively negative factors are the high valuation and the weakening market sentiment. In the short term, the ore price will continue the high - level adjustment trend, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. Investors should pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak operation of the fundamentals, which causes the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. - The rebar market shows a situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory. Although the steel price is under pressure due to the weakening fundamentals and market sentiment, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the fundamental weakness causing the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has significantly weakened, with a large increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar has slightly decreased, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, and the downstream industry has not improved. In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory, the rebar fundamentals continue to weaken. Although the steel price is under pressure, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].