Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils is running weakly, with limited inventory reduction. The production of plate mills is stabilizing, but the supply is climbing to a high level and the inventory pressure is still large. Demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak, causing the coil price to continue to be under pressure. However, there is support from low valuation and cost, and it is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in shock. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Hot - rolled coil weekly production is 319.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.00 tons, and a decrease of 4.55 tons compared with the end of last month. The production is at a high level and climbing. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a decrease of 0.63 percentage points compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 0.18 percentage points compared with the same period [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons and a decrease of 11.67 tons compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 4.62 tons compared with the same period. The demand of the downstream cold - rolling industry has unsolved contradictions, and the improvement of external demand is limited, so the demand toughness is likely to weaken [1] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 400.90 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.21 tons and a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the end of last month, but an increase of 95.18 tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory is 78.02 tons, unchanged from last week, an increase of 0.36 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 0.37 tons compared with the same period. The social inventory is 322.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.21 tons, a decrease of 6.05 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 95.55 tons compared with the same period [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is constantly declining. The daily average hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again this week. With the unimproved profitability of steel mills and production - restriction disturbances, ore demand will continue to weaken, which may drag down ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments remain at a high level this year, and domestic ore production is stable, so the ore supply is high. In the short - term, the fermentation of positive factors supports the ore price to rise oscillatingly, but the demand is weakening while the supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Once the market operation logic returns to the industrial end, the ore price may be weak. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,210.12, with a week - on - week increase of 155.47, a monthly increase of 667.64 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 163.23 compared to the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,942.48, with a week - on - week decrease of 58.75, a monthly increase of 92.62, and a decrease of 343.06 compared to the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 2,817.10, with a week - on - week increase of 548.20, a monthly increase of 788.00, and an increase of 519.90 compared to the same period [1]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,278.40, with a week - on - week decrease of 237.98, a monthly decrease of 109.95, and an increase of 184.80 compared to the same period [1]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 234.68, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.60, a monthly decrease of 1.68, and an increase of 0.81 compared to the same period [1]. - 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume is 331.58, with a week - on - week increase of 1.66, a monthly increase of 11.42, and a decrease of 4.29 compared to the same period [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 289.43, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.25, a monthly decrease of 2.19, and a decrease of 0.34 compared to the same period [1]. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 108.00, with a week - on - week increase of 29.62, a monthly increase of 25.82, and a decrease of 6.16 compared to the same period [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供应预期修复，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 < END > 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 15,280 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.13% to 15,280 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,134 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.20% to 2,114 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 94 yuan/ton. With the improvement trend of methanol supply - demand expectations, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.8 yuan/barrel, and the closing price rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment. The Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week, mainly due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, caused by insufficient orders, slow shipment, and equipment transformation. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market maintained a good development trend, and the monthly production and sales reached a new high in the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and may even reach 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons compared to 1.8802 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 184,600 tons. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4,500 tons compared to 369,200 tons last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 60. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 426.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.519 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month rebound of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 7, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 74,309 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 28,991 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,539 contracts or 31.68% compared to the average in September. As of November 18, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 177,827 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 13,249 contracts and a significant increase of 58,416 contracts or 48.92% compared to the average in October [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,280 yuan/ton | +85 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,114 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 447.6 yuan/barrel | +2.6 yuan/barrel | - 36.1 yuan/barrel | - 2.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, rubber futures inventory, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [15][28][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 27, 2025, the stock indices fluctuated throughout the day and closed nearly flat. The total market turnover was 1.70 trillion yuan, a decrease of 93.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to weak incremental policy signals recently, the upward momentum of the stock indices has weakened. With the influence of the overseas Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the risk of AI investment bubbles, the willingness of funds to take profits and leave temporarily has increased, and market sentiment has declined compared to before. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October 2025 was 1.9%, with a slowdown in growth rate. Considering the weakening of consumption and investment data in October, there are still strong expectations for policy benefits in the future, and the inflow trend of long - term funds remains unchanged, so the stock indices have strong support. - In general, with the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, the current market main trend is unclear, and the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread strategy can be considered after a significant correction of the stock indices [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Option Indicators - On November 27, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.06% to 3.112; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.09% to 4.622; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.21% to 4.768; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.05% to 4515.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.12% to 7257.45; 500ETF (SSE) fell 0.21% to 7.050; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.28% to 2.817; the GEM ETF fell 0.50% to 3.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.36% to 3.358; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.02% to 2972.27; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.22% to 1.38; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.30% to 1.34 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 92.73 (previous day: 89.94), and the open - interest PCR was 100.17 (previous day: 100.08) [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 was 12.49%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.36% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [21]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [73]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [86]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Included charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [98]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [137]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [147].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, showing a decline. Coupled with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be relatively loose to maintain the stability of macro - aggregate demand, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong necessity for the monetary policy to be intensified at the end of the year, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the statements of the important December meeting on monetary policy. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On November 27, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an unchanged operating rate of 1.40%. There were 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. This operation aimed to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, achieving a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On November 27, the main coke contract closed at 1,607 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.03%. The position of the main contract was 33,300 lots, a decrease of 1,839 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled, weakening the cost support for coke, and the main futures contract is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the actual supply of coking coal [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On November 27, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,071 points, with an intraday decrease of 0.19%. The position of the main contract was 452,300 lots, a decrease of 24,098 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Since the safety production annual assessment and inspection work started in November, the production of coking coal has increased instead of decreasing, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has accelerated. The supply support for coking coal has weakened, and the main futures contract has continued to correct. However, considering that the coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. This heating season, the energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and the resource supply is guaranteed. The NDRC will take multiple measures to increase resource production and supply and ensure people's warm winter [8]. - On November 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,580 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 yuan/ton | - 1.35% | - 5.81% | - 9.88% | - 13.61% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 7.91% | 8.47% | - 5.19% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,580 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | - 4.82% | 6.04% | - 3.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,790 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.87% | 16.99% | 5.29% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,607.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | 1,630.0 yuan/ton | 1,589.5 yuan/ton | 15,806 | - 9,815 | 33,313 lots | - 1,839 lots | | Coking Coal | - | 1,071.0 points | - 0.19% | 1,088.0 points | 1,066.5 points | 457,821 | - 250,769 | 452,336 lots | - 24,098 lots | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over the years [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [27][29][33]. Market Outlook The analysis and judgments on coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the weak and volatile state of coke futures due to the cooling supply expectation of coking coal and the uncertain downward trend of coking coal futures considering year - end production and the Politburo meeting [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated with a continuous increase in open interest. There was significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan domestically. The strengthening US dollar index during the day pressured copper prices. In the industry, there was a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas marginal inventory accumulation and domestic marginal inventory reduction. The spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 11,000 - dollar mark for LME copper [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The strengthening US dollar index cooled the short - term bullish sentiment in the market, leading to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, providing support for futures prices. Since this week, aluminum prices have rebounded slightly, but open interest has continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 21,500 - yuan mark [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, the main futures price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 117,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel decreased slightly. The rebound of the US dollar led to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the spot premium of nickel continued to strengthen, providing support for futures prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: European industry players have stated that if the export of scrap metals (copper and aluminum) is unrestricted, Europe may face a shortage of smelting raw materials, affecting the production and supply of semi - finished products. Some have called for expanding export restrictions to the scrap copper sector [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: As of November 27, on the supply side, while the supply remained stable, upstream iron plants still had no zero - order quotes, showing a strong willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, there was continuous release of downstream procurement demand during the week, with the transaction focus concentrated at 880 yuan per nickel point. However, although the buying was more active, terminal consumption remained weak, and market pessimism persisted. Overall, there was oversupply, and the price of high - nickel pig iron remained under pressure in the short term [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is oscillating and stabilizing. The futures price is on a downward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the spot price is on an upward trend. The negative basis is strengthening, and the registered warehouse receipts are decreasing. The inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE is 95,820 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day, and the settlement price is 97,020 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the previous day. [4][6] - **Lithium Ore Prices**: Prices of various types of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, show different trends. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, while some lithium mica prices remain unchanged compared to the previous day but have increased compared to the previous week. [6] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate is 93,340 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 81,790 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton from the previous day. [6] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors and electrolytes have changed. For example, the price of ternary precursor (523) is 105,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. [8][9] - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts display the price trends of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. [11][15] - **Other Charts**: Charts present the trading volume and open interest of lithium carbonate futures, as well as the quantity of registered warehouse receipts. [17][18]