投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘海外金银价格的纷纷冲高回落，白银高位下挫近 10%。我们认为这是短期市场累 计较大涨幅后，由资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着巴西大豆产量上调且收割进度快于去年，叠加中国完成美豆采购承诺后或转向更廉价的巴 西新豆，美豆期价承压回落。国内豆粕市场呈现近强远弱格局，核心在于强劲的节前备货支撑与弱预期的 远期供应压力激烈博弈。一方面，春节临近推动下游饲料企业备货需求，油厂豆粕库存连续三周下降，现 货挺价意愿坚决，支撑近月合约表现相对偏强。另一方面，市场对未来供应担忧持续。整体来看，豆粕价 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险降温，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母达到中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，美伊可能爆发新一轮军事冲 突，或威胁 ...

宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 氛围偏谨慎，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭区间运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：1 月 26 日收盘，焦煤主力合约报收于 1159.5 元/ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 基本面表现偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱势未改，库存持续攀升，钢厂生产弱稳，且淡季钢市矛盾在累积，矿石需求表 现偏弱，而节前钢厂正常补库，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货持续回落，但矿商发运则迎 来回升，按船期推算后续到货减量有限，相应内矿供应在回升，叠加高库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Since mid - January, the coking coal futures have experienced a correction and are currently in a low - level range - bound pattern. This is due to the lack of direct policy support and the weak fundamentals of coking coal. However, winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival limit the downside space. In the absence of policy intervention, coking coal futures lack the momentum for a one - sided upward movement, but there is also strong resistance to further short - term declines. The main contract is expected to remain in a low - level range [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Futures: Since mid - January, the main contract of coking coal futures has fallen from around 1,250 yuan/ton to about 1,100 yuan/ton and then entered a range - bound state. In the past year, the upward movement of coking coal futures has mainly relied on industrial policies or macro - expectations. This year, in the absence of direct policy support, the market is mainly driven by fundamental factors [2][6]. - Spot: In January, the coking coal spot market performed well, with no obvious decline in the prices of mainstream coal types. As of January 23, the prices of some coal types such as Shanxi Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal, Shanxi Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, and Meng 5 clean coal at Tangshan Port all increased month - on - month. Short - term winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival provided support, but in the long - term, the low downstream demand and the loose supply - demand contradiction of coking coal limit the continuous upward movement of coal prices [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic coal mines maintained stable production before the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the seaborne coal arrivals in the first two weeks of January decreased compared with December but increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The Mongolian coal imported by rail increased significantly in December last year. Although the daily vehicle - passing number at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased briefly in January, it gradually recovered in the middle of the month. As of January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons [2][4]. - Demand: Since January, the multiple attempts to increase the price of coke have failed. Coking enterprises are suffering heavy losses, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The latest data shows that the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 66 yuan/ton, and the total daily output of coke in independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants is 1,102,100 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 40 tons [4]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory within the statistical scope this week is 25.4473 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 383,800 tons, indicating a loose supply situation. The inventory accumulation mainly occurs in downstream independent coking plants, reflecting the ongoing winter storage demand, which supports the spot price [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures industry in China has become a significant global risk - management platform, but the brokerage business faces challenges such as "involution - style competition", with traditional profit models being under pressure. Policy guides the shift from price competition to service - and value - based competition, and futures companies must transform to build core competitiveness [2][9] - The transformation of futures companies is a systematic change in business, organizational structure, talent mechanism, and corporate culture, aiming to enter a "blue - ocean" market centered on value creation [9] Summary by Relevant Catalog Mode Reconstruction: From Channel Broker to Comprehensive Risk Steward - The core of transformation is to break the "channel thinking" and upgrade from a simple trading intermediary to a "comprehensive risk steward" for the entire customer lifecycle, embedding services into the customer's business decision - making process [3] - To achieve this, a "three - dimensional service ability" is required, including penetration in risk identification, construction ability in solution design, and continuity in service accompaniment [3] - Establish a refined hierarchical service system for different customer groups. For industrial customers, implement the "embedded consultant" service model; for institutional customers, focus on asset - allocation needs; for individual investors, build a "smart tool + professional guidance" service system [4] Technology Empowerment: Build a New Foundation for Smart Services - Technology is the key to solving homogeneous competition. Futures companies should increase investment in intelligent trading, risk - control systems, and data platforms, and integrate technology into the entire business process [5] - Build a dynamic and all - around risk - control system with technology support, including real - time risk measurement, multi - level stress testing, and intelligent customer suitability assessment [5][6] - Optimize the mobile APP, integrate functions, increase the coverage of intelligent customer service, and build a "7×24 - hour" response mechanism [5][6] Product Innovation: Enrich the Risk - Management Toolbox - Product innovation should focus on emerging fields, weather derivatives, and "futures +" combination products to provide precise risk - hedging tools for different scenarios [7] - Develop innovative futures and options products linked to emerging assets, improve traditional products such as "insurance + futures", and design wealth - management products to meet different customer needs [7] Ecosystem Construction: Create a New Pattern of Open Collaboration - Futures companies should cooperate with multiple parties such as banks, insurance companies, and technology companies to create value jointly, and expand cooperation in areas like joint credit and supply - chain finance [8] - At the industry level, establish a fair and orderly competition order, share data, and promote investor education; at the enterprise level, achieve differentiated positioning based on resource endowment [8]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 4 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2625.50 万吨，环比减 272.20 万吨，延续回落态势且降至相对低位；其中澳 矿、巴西矿分别降 143.70、142.10 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 13.60 万吨，维持相对高位。 2、海外矿石发运小幅回升，全球矿石发运总量为 2978.30 万吨，环比增 48.50 万吨，主要得益于澳洲 主流矿商发运回升所致，合计发运环比增 216.12 万吨；细分地区看澳矿环比增 149.39 万吨，巴西矿则是 微降 1.80 万吨，维持相对低位，非澳巴矿发运高位回落，环比降 99.09 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量低位运行，海外供应有所收缩，持续性待跟踪。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Today, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices, which had a large increase last Friday, pulled back from their highs, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices continued to fluctuate and consolidate. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3280.6 billion yuan, an increase of 162.5 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating that the market sentiment remained optimistic. In the medium to long term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of stock indices. However, in the short term, the regulatory authorities' expectation to control risks is relatively clear, and the "chasing high" sentiment is suppressed. The increase in this round of stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side. As the capital side shows differences between chasing up and taking profits, the short - term shock and consolidation needs of stock indices are constantly reflected. Since the current stock market style favors small and medium - cap stocks, the fluctuations of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices have intensified, and attention should be paid to the short - term repeated fluctuation risks. In general, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [4] - Regarding options, since the medium - to long - term upward logic of stock indices is relatively solid, a bull spread strategy can be adopted. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 26, 2026, the 50ETF rose 0.74% to close at 3.129; the 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.17% to close at 4.712; the 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.31% to close at 4.913; the CSI 300 index rose 0.10% to close at 4706.96; the CSI 1000 index fell 1.24% to close at 8365.43; the 500ETF (SSE) fell 1.78% to close at 8.564; the 500ETF (SZSE) fell 1.64% to close at 3.409; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.96% to close at 3.305; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.51% to close at 3.484; the SSE 50 index rose 0.57% to close at 3049.59; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.22% to close at 1.62; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.20% to close at 1.56. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 26, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are as follows: - 50ETF options: trading volume PCR was 76.23 (previous day: 97.54), position PCR was 75.94 (previous day: 66.75). [7] - SSE 300ETF options: trading volume PCR was 87.01 (previous day: 103.34), position PCR was 91.07 (previous day: 86.20). [7] - SZSE 300ETF options: trading volume PCR was 162.92 (previous day: 118.26), position PCR was 75.84 (previous day: 67.18). [7] - CSI 300 index options: trading volume PCR was 42.22 (previous day: 52.95), position PCR was 67.75 (previous day: 66.45). [7] - CSI 1000 index options: trading volume PCR was 75.69 (previous day: 64.10), position PCR was 102.44 (previous day: 103.60). [7] - SSE 500ETF options: trading volume PCR was 92.86 (previous day: 81.01), position PCR was 135.43 (previous day: 150.13). [7] - SZSE 500ETF options: trading volume PCR was 136.55 (previous day: 162.14), position PCR was 114.67 (previous day: 119.22). [7] - ChiNext ETF options: trading volume PCR was 97.63 (previous day: 81.20), position PCR was 105.99 (previous day: 110.10). [7] - Shenzhen 100ETF options: trading volume PCR was 129.86 (previous day: 140.12), position PCR was 132.46 (previous day: 124.47). [7] - SSE 50 index options: trading volume PCR was 39.97 (previous day: 60.12), position PCR was 58.57 (previous day: 58.64). [7] - STAR 50ETF options: trading volume PCR was 78.62 (previous day: 64.35), position PCR was 100.18 (previous day: 101.93). [7] - E Fund STAR 50ETF options: trading volume PCR was 67.78 (previous day: 87.05), position PCR was 95.29 (previous day: 97.48). [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are as follows: - 50ETF options: implied volatility was 15.24%, historical volatility was 11.65%. [8] - SSE 300ETF options: implied volatility was 15.27%, historical volatility was 11.92%. [8] - SZSE 300ETF options: implied volatility was 15.49%, historical volatility was 11.94%. [8] - CSI 300 index options: implied volatility was 15.59%, historical volatility was 11.62%. [8] - CSI 1000 index options: implied volatility was 21.73%, historical volatility was 17.72%. [8] - SSE 500ETF options: implied volatility was 28.95%, historical volatility was 17.72%. [8] - SZSE 500ETF options: implied volatility was 23.90%, historical volatility was 17.65%. [8] - ChiNext ETF options: implied volatility was 24.17%, historical volatility was 22.40%. [8] - Shenzhen 100ETF options: implied volatility was 19.28%, historical volatility was 16.10%. [8] - SSE 50 index options: implied volatility was 16.15%, historical volatility was 11.67%. [8] - STAR 50ETF options: implied volatility was 32.84%, historical volatility was 27.10%. [9] - E Fund STAR 50ETF options: implied volatility was 33.02%, historical volatility was 27.08%. [9] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [10][11][12] - **SSE 300ETF options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [21][22] - **SZSE 300ETF options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [24][25] - **CSI 300 index options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [36][37] - **CSI 1000 index options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [45][46] - **SSE 500ETF options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [59][60] - **SZSE 500ETF options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [72][73] - **ChiNext ETF options**: Include charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [85][86] - **Shenzhen 100ETF options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [96][97] - **SSE 50 index options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [109][110] - **STAR 50ETF options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [122][123] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility. [132][133]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色高开低走 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高开低走，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数持续 弱势运行，利好铜价。从盘面来看，贵金属持续强势，早盘高开带 动有色集体高开，但随后有色和贵金属分化明显。产业层面，铜价 反弹，下游采购意愿再度下降，周一电解铜小幅累库，02-03 月差走 弱明显。 沪镍 今日镍价冲高回落，盘中突破 15 万关口，持仓量随着价格同向变 化。宏观层面，美元指数弱势，利好有色。今日镍价虽然午后随着有 色板块一同 ...