投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅调整 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽 松的货币政策，具体方面的表述是"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策 工具"，这说明降息的条件会根据外部货币环境以及国内经济基本面综合考 虑。考虑到短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠 加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价格承压。当然中长期 来看内需有效需求不足的问题仍需偏宽松的货币信用环境，未来仍存降息 可能性，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色日内回落，镍维持强势 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 沪铜 昨夜沪铜在 10.5 万关口维持强势运行，今日沪铜增仓回落，午后 一度跳水至 10.3 万以下，随后企稳回升。元旦节后国内宏观氛围持 续回暖，资产普涨。而铜在产业供应收缩的背景下矿端扰动再起， 形成了宏观和产业利好共振。短期内外盘分歧加剧，日内宏观氛围 有所冷却，资金获 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 28,815 billion yuan, an increase of 493 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy - positive expectations and the net inflow of funds are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. The policies of the Central Economic Work Conference are gradually being implemented, and policy - positive expectations continue to ferment. The purchase amount of margin trading funds soared from about 220 billion yuan before the holiday to about 300 billion yuan, indicating high enthusiasm of leveraged funds to enter the market. The stock indices have broken through the upper limit of the previous oscillation range. Due to the unchanged main logics of policy - positive expectations and net fund inflow, the stock indices are likely to remain strong in the future. In general, it is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility have both rebounded, a bull - spread strategy can be considered [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 7, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.46% to 3.220; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.37% to 4.901; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.38% to 4.977; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.29% to 4776.67; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% to 7906.42; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.48% to 7.999; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.51% to 3.157; the GEM ETF rose 0.24% to 3.311; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.31% to 3.542; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.43% to 3145.12; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.00% to 1.52; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.96% to 1.47 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 72.92 (previous trading day: 58.87), and the position PCR was 101.23 (previous trading day: 108.76) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 15.59%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.38% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes various charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][20][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。最新公布的 12 月制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间，宏观数据表 现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价 格承压。不过内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，货币政策中长期仍偏向宽松，2026 年政策利率仍存下 调预期，目前国债价格隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，国债期货上有压力 下有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for gold and copper futures: - **Gold**: Short - term:震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏强 (slightly bullish in intraday trading) [1] - **Copper**: Short - term: 震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏弱 (slightly bearish in intraday trading) [1] 2. Core Views - **Gold**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price. Although the market panic did not spread, the high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high position in late December [1][3] - **Copper**: It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view. The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price. The core drivers of the copper price increase since December are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated upwards, and it maintained a strong operation at night. New York gold reached above the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold was approaching the 1010 - yuan mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: On January 3, the US military carried out an air strike on Venezuela and captured the Venezuelan president, which increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment and led to a higher opening of the gold price. The high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai copper continued to increase positions and rise, standing above the 105,000 - yuan mark during the day, and LME copper stood above the $13,300 mark. After the Asian session, LME copper once erased the intraday gain of more than $200, while the copper price recovered again before the domestic night session. There was a large divergence in short - term internal and external funds [4] - **Driving Factors**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. The easing of US and Japanese central bank monetary policies has restored market liquidity, and the market expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The delay in the commissioning of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador due to political instability and administrative issues has led to the expectation of lower - than - expected new global copper mine supply [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏暖，铁矿石期价高位偏强运行，但供需格局持续走弱，港存高位攀升，钢厂开始复产， 矿石终端消耗迎来回升，但盈利状况改善有限，且淡季钢市难以承接大幅提产，需求改善空间受限。 与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升，且后续存有增量空间，而年末冲量结束后矿商发运开始回落，相 应的 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The price of rebar is expected to continue to fluctuate. Traders should focus on the support level of MA5 and the production situation of steel mills. The current situation is a game between expectations and reality, and the steel price is stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be fluctuating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Traders are advised to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the steel price stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, increasing rebar output and weakening the positive effect of low supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators remaining at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved and will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In summary, although the positive commodity sentiment has led to a rebound of rebar futures prices from low levels, the rebar fundamentals are weakly stable under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. The steel price in the off - season is still under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run in a moderately strong manner on January 7, 2026, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and an intraday view of being moderately strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has dissipated, weakening the bullish drive. Currently, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday, and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: moderately strong; Overall: moderately strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the moderately strong volatile pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose slightly on the night of Tuesday and are expected to maintain a moderately strong volatile trend on Wednesday [7].