本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 14,024.50 46.71 13,977.79 46.71 15,105.93 -1,081.43 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,046.19 -990.60 10,036.79 -990.60 8,985.30 60.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,608.70 248.20 2,360.50 248.20 1,958.70 650.00 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,279.00 -196.40 3,475.40 -196.40 2,981.20 297.80 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.54 -0.27 241.81 -0.27 233.08 8.46 45港日均疏港量 327.00 -9.40 336.40 -9.40 325.01 1.99 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 299.14 0.34 298.80 0.34 288.15 10.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.00 58.63 39.37 58.63 98.24 -0.24 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251010） 库存 供给 需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply contracted with a weekly output decrease of 36200 tons, but the reduction space during the peak season is doubtful and inventory is high, so the positive effect is limited. Demand was weak with a decline in weekly apparent demand and high - frequency indicators at low levels in recent years. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices. The industry contradiction has been accumulating under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and steel prices are under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36200 tons compared with the previous week and 328600 tons compared with the same period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.04 percentage points compared with the same period [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 146000 tons, a decrease of 95070 tons compared with the previous week and 102500 tons compared with the same period. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 11990 tons, an increase of 1880 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1240 tons compared with the same period [1]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 659650 tons, an increase of 57400 tons compared with the previous week and 218800 tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory was 192340 tons, an increase of 33430 tons compared with the previous week and 53870 tons compared with the same period. The social inventory was 467310 tons, an increase of 23970 tons compared with the previous week and 164930 tons compared with the same period [1].

热轧卷板周度数据（20251010） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 本周值 | | | 环比变化 | | 上月末值 | | | | 本月变化 | | | 同期值 | | | | | | 同期变化 | | 供给 | | | | | | 周度产量 | | | 323.29 | | -1.40 | | | 324.69 | | | | -1.40 | | | 308.19 | | | 15.10 | | | | | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | | | | 90.55 | | -0.10 | | | 90.65 | | | | -0.10 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪尚可，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应收缩，而需求表现疲弱，供需双弱局面下基本面并无实质性改 善，假期库存显著增加，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计 走势延续低位震荡态势，关注节后需求恢复情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.37%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应维持高位，而需求偏弱运行，基本面持续走弱，假期库存 显著增加，热卷价格承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求转弱引发产业矛盾激 化，关注节后需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.02%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，节后商品情绪偏暖，且需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应 维持高位，基本面预期走弱，上行驱动也不强，多空因素博弈下预计矿 价维持高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 10 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15315 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.07%至 15315 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 40 元/吨。随着台风利多因素逐渐消化，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构所 主导的行情中。在宏观预期偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微上涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2308 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2281 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.39%至 2307 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 44 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 强预期弱现实，煤焦震荡整理 核心观点 焦炭：截至 10 月 10 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 112.5 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.12 万吨。需求端，247 家钢厂日均铁水产 量 241.54 万吨，周环比下降 0.27 万吨，钢厂盈利率 56.28%，环比减少 0.43 个百分点。整体来看，焦炭自身基本面向上驱动不足，且 10 月以来 新增利好有限，预计焦炭期货暂维持区间震荡运行。 （1）国家发改委：密切监测市场价格运行情况和 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，美国政府意外"停摆"，引发系统性风险，导致全球金融市场避险情绪急剧升温，风险 资产普遍承压。与此同时，台风"麦德姆"登陆并侵袭了我国南部重要产胶区，或带来减产预期，但产业方 面的利多预期难敌宏观层面的偏空情绪。节后归来，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约虽呈现超跌反弹态势，然而 期价受到 5 日均线的反向压制，并且当前中短期均线空头趋势明显，预计后市沪胶或延续偏弱运行姿态。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 美国政府"停摆"的负面影响凸显 由于美国国会参议院在当地时间 10 月 6 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党与共和党的提案均再 次被否决，美国政府"停摆"状态持续。美国政府在 2018 年年底至 2019 年年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给 GDP 造成了 30 亿美元的损失，据美国国会预算办公室估算，此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将会下降约 0.15 个百分点，若把私营机构受到的影响计算在内，经济增速可能会下降 0.2 个百分点。整体来看，美国 政府"停摆"给经济和需求带来较大影响，并拖累大宗商品价格走势，这对沪胶期货同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly. The core logic is the start of interest rate cuts, intensified geopolitical situations, and the continuation of the upward trend in the medium and long term [1][3] - Copper is also expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday increases. The reason is the macro - loose background, renewed disturbances at the mine end, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell. New York gold and London gold both fell below the $4000 mark, and Shanghai gold dropped to the 900 - yuan mark. During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce psychological barrier, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which cooled geopolitical tensions, and the strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions after a large previous increase. The strong performance of gold prices is driven by three factors: a surge in hedging demand, expectations of monetary policy, and a structural influx of funds [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game of overseas gold prices at $4000, corresponding to the 900 - yuan mark in China [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, copper prices rose and then fell. During the National Day, the LME copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is affected by the fall of precious metals and strong technical pressure at a nearly 5 - year high. The strong rise is caused by three factors: supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the pressure at the $11000 mark for overseas LME copper and the high in May 2024 for domestic copper [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The subsequent trend of the stock index focuses on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - positive expectations and the stop - profit rhythm of profit - making funds [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term funds' stop - profit willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index opened and closed higher, with the whole - day trading volume of 2671.8 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, 474.6 billion yuan more than the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and reached a new high in nearly 10 years. External risk factors during the holiday had limited impact on A - shares, domestic consumption data was good, funds flowed back into the stock market after the holiday, and the policy - positive expectations of the important meeting in October continued to ferment, significantly increasing the risk preference of the stock market. However, the profit - repair expectations of enterprises were under pressure due to the slow repair of price indexes, and the stop - profit willingness of profit - making funds increased after the significant rise in the stock valuation. The performance of small - cap stocks that had risen significantly before was not as good as that of mid - cap stocks recently [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The fundamentals of thermal coal have weakened, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, putting pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain weak after the holiday [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: During the National Day, port coal prices basically stabilized, while origin coal prices were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally weak during the transition between winter and summer. On the supply side, the impact of anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September, and coal mine production in major producing areas gradually recovered in October. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily. On the demand side, during the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend. In terms of inventory, as of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220000 tons lower than the same period last year [4]