◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤震荡整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillating". The short - term and medium - term core logic is that downstream demand provides support, leading to a slight increase in port coal prices. The intraday view's core logic is that the domestic thermal coal fundamentals may recover in January, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Market Conditions - As of December 31, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, continuing to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton and gradually stabilizing this week [4]. Driving Factors for Price Changes - Before the New Year's Day holiday, thermal coal prices were weakening. The decline was due to high supply and unexpectedly weak demand. With the arrival of the New Year, although some suspended coal mines on the supply side will resume production, coal mines will have concentrated holidays during the Spring Festival, and downstream replenishment demand will be realized. On the demand side, the heating demand of residents in southern coastal cities will further increase in January, driving the coal consumption of power plants to reach the peak of the year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IH2603 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "bullish", and the overall view is "bullish with shocks". The core logic is that the expectations of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflows remain unchanged [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "bullish with shocks". The short - term stock index is expected to run bullishly with shocks. The main reasons are the continuous increase in market liquidity and policy benefit expectations after the holiday, and the strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2603**: - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Shock [1] - Intraday: Bullish [1] - Viewpoint reference: Bullish with shocks [1] - Core logic: Expectations of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflows remain unchanged [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [5] - **Intraday view**: Bullish [5] - **Medium - term view**: Shock [5] - **Reference view**: Bullish with shocks [5] - **Core logic**: The stock market has risen sharply and continuously after the holiday. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets reached 2832.2 billion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan from the previous day. The reasons are the return of market liquidity and the continuous increase in policy benefit expectations. The policy emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, and related industrial chain stocks have risen significantly. The margin trading balance has exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and the margin trading purchase amount is close to 300 billion yuan, indicating strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market and optimistic market sentiment. In the long - run, policy benefits and net capital inflows are the main drivers for the upward movement of the stock index. With the implementation of policy benefits in 2026 and continuous net capital inflows, the risk appetite of the stock market will continue to rise [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：目前美豆出口疲软、巴西丰产压力仍存，市场聚焦下周一美农报告指引方向。国内豆粕库存 113.5 万吨，周比降 3.52%，节后贸易商与饲料厂补货带动成交放量。当前美豆走高与巴西升贴水小幅上移， 抵消了人民币升值带来的成本压力，进口成本支撑有所增强，但上方阻力仍存。在市场压力尚未缓解前， 豆类期价反弹空间受限，反弹持续性较差，短期面临反复，整体低位震荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a mixed performance in various indicators, with GDP growth slightly slowing, manufacturing PMI improving, and inflation showing positive changes. The government continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic growth, stabilize prices, and prevent financial risks. The commodity market has different trends, with precious metals and base metals rising, while energy and some agricultural products falling. The stock market has positive momentum, and the bond market is under pressure [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6%. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from the previous month's 49.8%. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, with a slight increase from the previous month but a decline from the same period last year. Social financing in November 2025 was 24888 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all decreased compared to the previous month. New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous month. CPI in November 2025 was 0.7% year - on - year, turning positive from the previous month's - 0.4%. PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - to - date in November 2025, and social consumption increased by 4.0%. Exports in November 2025 increased by 5.90% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.90% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The People's Bank of China plans to use various monetary policy tools in 2026, strengthen financial market supervision, and crack down on illegal activities. China bans the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and related purposes [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On January 6, 2026, international precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce. London base metals also rose across the board, with LME nickel up 8.39% to $18430.0 per ton, LME tin up 4.79% to $44500.0 per ton, etc. [3]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - On January 6, 2026, the main contract of US crude oil fell 2.31% to $56.97 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 1.96% to $60.55 per barrel [4]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - On January 6, 2026, the Bloomberg Grains Sub - index fell 0.30%. CBOT corn, wheat, and soybeans futures all declined, while ICE raw sugar, white sugar, and some coffee futures rose, and New York and London cocoa futures fell [5][6]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 6, 2026, the central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. With 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2963 billion yuan [7]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 PBOC Work Conference emphasizes continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting economic growth and price recovery, and preventing financial risks. The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Administration Work Conference focuses on reform and opening - up, risk prevention, and ensuring the safety of foreign exchange reserves. China bans dual - use item exports to Japan for military purposes. The emotional consumption market in China is growing rapidly. Four departments encourage employee cultural and sports consumption. The inbound tourism market had a good start during the New Year's Day holiday. Shanghai encourages foreign - invested enterprises to reinvest in China. Henan introduces measures to boost the economy in Q1 2026. China's automobile production and sales are expected to reach a new high in 2025, with new energy vehicles leading the market. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering the A - share market. Many small and medium - sized banks have adjusted deposit interest rates. China Gas Holdings starts issuing panda bonds. Trump's team is discussing ways to acquire Greenland. There are bond - related events such as new debt defaults and credit rating changes [8][9][10]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China is under pressure, with rising yields of interest - rate bonds and falling bond futures. The stock market's strength affects bond market sentiment. In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rise and some fall. The convertible bond index rises. Money market rates show different trends, and bond issuance yields are announced. US bond yields rise, while European bond yields fall [16][17][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Update - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9813 on January 6, 2026, with a 7 - point decline. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 57 points. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies showed different trends [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment points out that Jiangsu's industrial assets are large, with significant north - south differences. Western Securities believes that the new regulations on public fund sales are beneficial to the bond market in January 2026. CITIC Securities says that China's bond market opening - up will promote foreign investment in the long - run, despite short - term fluctuations [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On January 7, 2026, 153 bonds will be listed, 99 bonds will be issued, 106 bonds will require payment, and 96 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with technology stocks, insurance, and brokerage stocks performing well. Southbound capital had net purchases. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering A - share market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges released the latest issuance and listing review dynamics. The number of new A - share accounts in 2025 increased significantly [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on January 7, 2026, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are - 131.4, - 131.4, - 123.4, - 116.4, - 113.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being - 5.19 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on January 6, 2026, is - 400 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 1648 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 33.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, rebar/iron ore is 3.89 [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on January 6, 2026, is 159.0 yuan/ton [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on January 6, 2026, is - 1600 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is 2.98 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 6, 2026, is - 196 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 61 [37] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, soybeans No.1/corn is 1.92 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 6, 2026, is 12.69 [48] - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪仍存，煤焦震荡调整 核心观点 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 一 产业资讯 焦炭：1 月 06 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1655 元/吨，日内录得 0.72%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.67 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1564 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1440 元/吨， 周环比下跌 0.69%。当前，下游复产和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑， 预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以 及政策端有无 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 6, 2026, all stock indices rose significantly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8322 trillion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan from the previous day. The continuous increase in trading volume after the holiday is mainly due to the return of market liquidity and the rising expectation of policy benefits. The policy emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, which drives the significant rise of related industrial chain stocks. The margin trading balance and margin trading amount have both increased, indicating strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market and optimistic market sentiment. In the medium to long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. With the implementation of policy benefits in 2026 and continuous net capital inflow, the risk appetite of the stock market will continue to rise. It is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility are within the normal range, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 6, 2026, the 50ETF rose 1.92% to close at 3.235; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.55% to close at 4.919; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.52% to close at 4.996; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.55% to close at 4790.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43% to close at 7864.90; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.17% to close at 7.961; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.15% to close at 3.141; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.67% to close at 3.303; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.08% to close at 3.553; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.90% to close at 3158.76; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.76% to close at 1.51; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.89% to close at 1.46 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 6, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day were provided, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 58.87 (previous day: 91.01), and the position PCR was 107.49 (previous day: 109.04) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options were provided, such as the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 13.26%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.68% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [9][11][13][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [22][24][26][32]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [35][37][39][41][45]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [48][50][52][54][58]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [61][64][66][68][72]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [75][77][79][83]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [88][90][92][97]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [101][103][105][111]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [114][116][118][124]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [127][129][131][137]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [140][142][144][148]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [151][153][154].