投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.29%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升并至高位，而需求表现疲弱，基本面矛盾在累积，淡季钢 价承压运行，相对利好则是成本支撑与情绪偏暖，下行阻力增加，预计 钢价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.12%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应有所回落，但库存偏高，压力未退，且需求韧性趋弱，产 业矛盾易累积， ...

宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 期货研究报告 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 24 2026 年 1 月 26 日 橡胶甲醇原油 地缘风险主导 能化再度走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡上行， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 16230 元/吨一线上方运 行。收盘时期价略微收涨 0.43%至 16230 元/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦区间震荡 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 23 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.21 万吨，周环比微增 0.04 万吨；需求端，247 家钢厂铁水日均 产量 228.1 万吨，周环比微增 0.09 万吨。库存方面，本周钢厂、港口焦 炭库存均有所增加，247 家钢厂总库存周环比增 11.31 万吨，至 661.64 万吨，焦炭可用天数 12.35 天，周环比增 0.38 天。整体来看，焦炭自身 基本面并无明显利好，成本端焦煤带来的支撑同样有限，主力合约暂维持 低位区间运行。 焦煤：焦煤产量平稳，进口维持高位，需求依旧低迷，基本面未见好转。 具体数据上，钢联统计显示，截至 1 月 23 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿 精煤日均产量 77 万吨，周环比基本持平，小幅增加 0.1 万吨，同比偏高 3.6 万吨。进口方面，1 月截至 20 日，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤合计通关 19890 车，月环比下降 24.9%，同比增长 25.4%。 ...

贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 26 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价持续强势 核心观点 上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关 口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲突有所缓和，金价经历了短暂的避险情绪降 温。然而，支撑金价长期上涨的多个核心驱动力并未改变，这些力量 共同作用，使得金价在短期调整后仍能持续走强，并维持在历史高位 运行。 从长周期角度，美国将关税等经济和金融工具持续"武器化"的 长期趋势，正在从根本上侵蚀美元信用体系。这一结构性支点动摇， 正加速全球范围内的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the macro environment improving, copper prices may maintain a high - level and strong - running trend. Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the improvement in the Greenland incident has boosted short - term market risk appetite. The continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, when copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark last week, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased, and the inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down. However, as copper prices rebounded, the basis and monthly spread weakened again, and it is expected that the restocking willingness will decline again. Copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation and wait for industrial follow - up [5]. - Aluminum: With the macro environment improving, aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating trend. Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector. The decline of the US dollar index and the sharp rise of gold largely reflect the intention of global asset allocation, that is, "de - dollarization" [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first oscillated around the 100,000 - yuan mark and then rebounded with increased positions on Friday. The weakening US dollar index is beneficial to copper prices, and the continuous rise of precious metals has driven the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector [5]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 23, the second - phase project of Tibet Julong Copper Industry was completed and put into operation. The second - phase expansion project was approved, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After reaching full production, the annual ore mining and processing volume will exceed 100 million tons, and the annual copper production will reach 300,000 - 350,000 tons. SMM expects the copper production of Julong Copper Industry to be 165,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026. Last week, the copper ore port inventory increased slightly, and the TC processing fee decreased slightly [24][26]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 335,200 tons, a weekly increase of 7,700 tons; the inventory of COMEX + LME was 727,600 tons, a weekly increase of 47,800 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the inventory accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Industry - On January 23, SMM reported that the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry rebounded by 10.51 percentage points to 67.98% week - on - week. Driven by the Spring Festival stockpiling and the decline of copper prices, downstream orders recovered, leading to the reduction of finished product inventory, and enterprises accelerated production to meet the demand. Looking forward to next week, the stockpiling demand will continue, and SMM expects the operating rate to further increase by 3.23 percentage points to 71.2% [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited [6]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 392,400 tons compared with last week and an increase of 7.17 million tons compared with the same period in 2025 [44]. 3.3.3 Low - level Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 514,700 tons, an increase of 18,300 tons compared with last week [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Industry - Last week, aluminum prices oscillated around the 24,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of downstream industries increased, and the processing fees of aluminum rods in some areas increased slightly. On January 22, the aluminum rod inventory was 123,300 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with last week. The aluminum rod inventory is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline, indicating a strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. The decline of copper prices was mainly due to the cooling of the macro environment, and the non - ferrous sector and even the commodity market declined. The willingness of short - term funds to close positions continued to increase. In the macro aspect, the overseas US dollar index continued to rebound, and the margin ratio of margin trading in China was raised, increasing the market regulation expectation. In the industrial aspect, the monthly spread of nearby contracts weakened significantly, electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream industries were in a wait - and - see mood. As copper prices dropped to the 100,000 - yuan mark, the restocking willingness of some industries increased, which may provide some support for copper prices. The long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices oscillated strongly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. On Friday, the macro environment warmed up, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. The continuous strength of precious metals last week largely drove the non - ferrous sector to stabilize and rebound. However, compared with copper, aluminum has a weaker financial attribute and a stronger industrial attribute, so its increase is limited. In the industrial aspect, the inventory of upstream bauxite has slightly increased, alumina is running weakly, the restocking willingness of downstream industries is weak, electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate, and the monthly spread also remains weak. Aluminum prices have strong technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark and are waiting for industrial follow - up [60].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1. 产业动态 碳酸锂弱势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 165680 元/吨，较前日 下跌 15840 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 181620 元/吨，较前日上涨 6.18%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 4680 点，正基差（现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 26, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from January 19 to January 23, 2026, shows that the basis was - 108 on January 19, - 112 on January 20, - 115 on January 21, - 116 on January 22, and - 116 on January 23. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 19 to January 23, 2026, are provided. For example, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 64.18 on January 23, 62.33 on January 22, 78.62 on January 21, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 45 on January 19, - 320 on January 20, - 345 on January 21, - 250 on January 22, and - 315 on January 23 [9]. - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber was - 630, and the 9 - 1 was - 710 [10]. - Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1905 on January 19, 1832 on January 20, 1896 on January 21, 1953 on January 22, and 1980 on January 23 [10]. Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of rebar was 140 on January 19, 159 on January 20, 143 on January 21, 136 on January 22, and 118 on January 23 [21]. - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was - 71 [20]. - Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.95 on January 19, 3.98 on January 20, 3.96 on January 21, 3.98 on January 22, and 3.96 on January 23 [20]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of copper was - 160 on January 19, - 740 on January 20, - 1270 on January 21, - 690 on January 22, and - 670 on January 23 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 23, 2026. For example, the LME spread of copper was (66.06), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.85 [32]. Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 161 on January 19, - 178 on January 20, - 152 on January 21, - 167 on January 22, and - 204 on January 23 [36]. - Inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was - 38 [36]. - Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.89 on January 19, 1.90 on January 20, 1.89 on January 21, 1.89 on January 22, and 1.90 on January 23 [36]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 19 to January 23, 2026. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was - 1.00 on January 23 [48]. - Inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter). For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was 1.0 [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳，成交偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，建筑钢厂生产积极，螺 纹产量大幅回升并至相对高位，供应压力在增加，关注后续累库情况。与此同时，螺纹钢需求延续 季节性弱势，高频需求指标回落并位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见好转，弱势需求继续拖累 钢价。总之，螺纹供应回升并至高位，而需求表现疲弱，基本面矛盾在累积，淡季钢价承压运行， 相对利好则是成本支撑与情绪偏暖，下行阻力增加，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注库存变 化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 产业矛盾累积，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a moderately strong manner. In the short - term (within a week), it will be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also show a volatile trend, and it will be moderately strong on the day [1][5] Summary of Related Content - **Price Movement and Judgment Criteria** - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it's yesterday's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is moderately weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is moderately strong, and a rise greater than 1% is strong [3] - The moderately strong/moderately weak judgment only applies to the intraday view, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price** - Recently, US President Trump has frequently sent out geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Canada potentially being the next targets for the US to seize and attack. The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's strong statements may lead to a new round of military conflicts between the US and Iran, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend on Monday [5]