Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on January 8, 2026, analyzing the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, and the outlook for ore prices is cautiously optimistic. Although the futures price of iron ore continues to run strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment, the supply pressure remains and the demand improvement is limited, so the upward driving force needs to be tracked [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and cautious optimism about ore prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The commodity sentiment is warm and the positive factors remain, so the iron ore futures price continues to run strongly at a high level. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased, but the improvement in their profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market can't bear the increased production, so the demand increase space is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again and there is still room for growth in the future. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production decline seasonally, the ore supply pressure remains. The subsequent changes should be monitored [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol futures are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of strength. The overall trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Time - cycle View - For methanol 2605, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillation, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, and the intraday view is strength, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - The strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival comes from the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the repair of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Although the methanol futures price had a slight correction on Wednesday night, the coal futures price rose significantly again. The expectation of a decline in external imports outweighs the weak real - world demand, so the domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run with a strong bias in the short - term and mid - term, with a strong bias on the day of trading [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical risk weakens, and the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia dissipates. However, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated at a high level on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern supplies and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillating and strong - biased pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose sharply on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic thermal coal fundamentals may recover in January 2026, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to the subsequent coal consumption trend of power plants [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Varieties Price Quotation Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Before the New Year's Day, thermal coal prices were still weakening. With the influence of cold air on the 24th and 25th, the decline rate slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, continuing to weaken after breaking below 700 yuan/ton and stabilizing this week. The decline was due to high supply and unexpectedly weak demand. In January, some idle coal mines will resume production, but there will be a concentrated Spring Festival holiday for coal mines, and downstream replenishment demand will be realized. Also, the heating demand of southern coastal cities will increase, driving the coal consumption of power plants to reach a peak. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material prices are rising strongly, driving up the steel prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The production is increasing while the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals are weakly stable. The rebar prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive up the steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Strong raw material price increases lead to higher steel prices. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, and rebar output is rising, weakening the positive effect of low supply. The rebar demand is weak, and high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the strong rise of raw materials boosts the sentiment in the black market and the rebar futures price oscillates upward, the steel price is still prone to pressure in the off - season [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bullish. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price [1]. - Copper: In the short - term, it will be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bearish. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations will drive up the copper price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai gold futures fluctuated downward, breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark during the day, and showed strong performance at night, returning to the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Environment**: After the Venezuela incident, the panic in the market did not spread. The US stock Dow Jones index hit a new high. After the holiday, the market risk appetite and liquidity remained high. The short - term macro - environment cooled down, and the assets with good previous gains generally declined, increasing the safe - haven demand for gold and providing support for the gold price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday during the day, due to the cooling of the macro - environment, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, and this weakness continued at night. The trading volume of positions changed little. Last night, LME copper broke through the $13,000 mark, and the main contract price of Shanghai copper once broke through the 102,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Price Drivers**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase have been macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. Recently, the short - term sharp increase in the copper price has led to an increase in the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions, causing the futures price to fall from its high [4].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货走强。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 供应强预期再现，焦煤大幅反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 成本端支撑，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weak in the intraday. Overall, it is likely to run weakly, with oversupply in the supply - demand situation being the dominant factor [1] - Although geopolitical risks have increased during the New Year's holiday, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic for the decline in oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices on Thursday may maintain a volatile and weak trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Summary - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 is "weak", and the reference view is "weakly running" [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement and Driving Logic - The core logic for the weak trend of crude oil is the oversupply in the supply - demand situation [1] - During the New Year's holiday, geopolitical risks increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and threats to other South American countries, which may be a factor for the post - holiday oil price increase. However, the long - term pressure on oil prices comes from the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures markets, including core views, industry dynamics, spot prices, and related charts [6]. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,200 yuan/ton, closing at 16,180 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price has broken out of the triangular range and maintained a slightly strong pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a high of 2,323 yuan/ton and a low of 2,241 yuan/ton, closing at 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures maintained a strong pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and closing significantly lower. The price reached a high of 437.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 411.0 yuan/barrel, closing at 416.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.57%. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela escalated, the event was quickly digested by the market. Currently, the oil market is still dominated by the expectation of supply - demand surplus, and both domestic and international oil prices remained weak [6]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a 3.80% increase, and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [8]. - In the week of December 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may continue to decline next week [8]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November, a 6% month - on - month decrease but a 46% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%, and a significant increase of 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The weekly methanol production reached 2.0722 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons [10]. - The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE showed different trends. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plant average operating load was 81.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 3. The US daily crude oil production was 13.827 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 422.9 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.934 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 549,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 248,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [12]. - As of December 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 64,898 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 10,002 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts [12]. Spot Price Table | 品种 | 现货价格 | 较前一日涨跌 | 期货主力合约 | 较前一日涨跌 | 基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 15,750 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +130 yuan/ton | - 430 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | 甲醇 | 2,305 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,267 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | | 原油 | 402.2 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | 416.3 yuan/barrel | - 11.9 yuan/barrel | - 14.1 yuan/barrel | +11.9 yuan/barrel | [13] Related Charts - The report includes charts of rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, futures inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, port and inland inventory, and production cost), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes) [14][27][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动再现，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 07 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1773 元/吨，日内录得 7.98%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1678 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1420 元/吨， 周环比下跌 2.07%。期货市场方面，本周焦炭期货向上反弹，主要是受焦 煤供应端扰动支撑。此外，进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内卷" 政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，带动焦炭期货走强。 焦煤：1 月 07 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1164 点，日内上涨 7.98%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+11257 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难 言明显改善 ...