投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-13 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引发上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。 同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇开 工率和周度产量依然维持偏高 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强 核心逻辑：目前，国内市场供应压力尚未化解，但考虑到大豆价格下跌至成本线附近，油厂压榨持续 亏损，油厂挺价心理渐强，豆粕负基差迎来修复。此外，鉴于当前中美贸易摩擦再度升级，对市场影 响依然较大，供应担忧情绪升温。由于美国农业部将暂停报告发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引 下，对国内市场的关联影响有所减弱。豆粕市场交易逻辑面临切换，短期或迎来止跌反弹走势，期价 内强外弱。 核心逻辑：随着马棕报告超预期利空影响释放，内外盘棕榈油期价急转直下，回吐假期涨幅。此外， 国际油价走弱也令棕榈油生物 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 系统性风险出现，沪胶偏弱运行 | | 合成胶 | 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶偏弱运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of thermal coal is improving while the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the holiday, the thermal coal price may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and there are obstacles to the upward movement of thermal coal [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: The impact of anti - involution capacity verification was basically released in September. In October, coal mine production in the main producing areas gradually resumed, and the import coal had good cost - performance, so the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily [4]. - **Demand**: During the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, the demand for thermal power showed seasonal weakness [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the supply - demand pattern of domestic thermal coal weakened, and the ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2512 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 系统性风险出现，原油偏弱运行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引发上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。 同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。同时，8 个 OPEC+产油国决定 11 月维持 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, all treasury bond futures maintained low-level volatile consolidation. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppressed bond purchase demand, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut was not high, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limited the short-term upward momentum. However, since the demand side of the macroeconomy still requires a relatively loose monetary environment, in the medium to long term, future monetary policies tend to be loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. News-wise, Trump suddenly threatened tariffs on Friday night, increasing the uncertainty risk in the foreign trade environment, raising market risk aversion, and providing short-term positive support for treasury bond futures. Overall, in the short term, both the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom volatile consolidation [1][25] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Review - 1.1 Treasury Bond Trends: The report presents the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512, but no specific analysis of these trends is provided [5][7][9][11] 2 Treasury Bond Indicators - 2.1 Interest Rate Term Structure: The report shows the interest rate term structures of the Ministry of Finance - local bonds and ChinaBond treasury bonds, but no in - depth analysis [14][15] - 2.2 Central Bank Open - Market Operations: The report shows a chart of central bank open - market operations, but no detailed analysis [18] - 2.3 Treasury Bond Yield Curve: The report shows a chart of the treasury bond yield curve, but no specific analysis [19] - 2.4 Market Interest Rates and Policy Interest Rates: The report shows a chart of market interest rates and policy interest rates, but no in - depth analysis [23] 3 Conclusion - Treasury bond futures maintained low - level volatile consolidation. In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom volatile consolidation [25]

宝城期货能化板块数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能化板块 核心观点 能源化工：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，节后国内外原 油期货价格呈现偏弱格局。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约跌幅较大。 在弱势成本因素凸显的背景下，拖累其他能源化工商品期货也出现弱 势下行的走势。除了成本因素外，其他商品受库存回升压制，继续维 持偏弱姿态运行。短期来看，成本因子依然是决定后市能化商品走势 的重要因素，预计在原油期货价格偏弱拖累下，下周能化商品期货板 块或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 14,024.50 46.71 13,977.79 46.71 15,105.93 -1,081.43 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,046.19 -990.60 10,036.79 -990.60 8,985.30 60.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,608.70 248.20 2,360.50 248.20 1,958.70 650.00 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,279.00 -196.40 3,475.40 -196.40 2,981.20 297.80 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.54 -0.27 241.81 -0.27 233.08 8.46 45港日均疏港量 327.00 -9.40 336.40 -9.40 325.01 1.99 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 299.14 0.34 298.80 0.34 288.15 10.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.00 58.63 39.37 58.63 98.24 -0.24 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251010） 库存 供给 需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply contracted with a weekly output decrease of 36200 tons, but the reduction space during the peak season is doubtful and inventory is high, so the positive effect is limited. Demand was weak with a decline in weekly apparent demand and high - frequency indicators at low levels in recent years. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices. The industry contradiction has been accumulating under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and steel prices are under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36200 tons compared with the previous week and 328600 tons compared with the same period. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.04 percentage points compared with the same period [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 146000 tons, a decrease of 95070 tons compared with the previous week and 102500 tons compared with the same period. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 11990 tons, an increase of 1880 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1240 tons compared with the same period [1]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 659650 tons, an increase of 57400 tons compared with the previous week and 218800 tons compared with the same period. The in - plant inventory was 192340 tons, an increase of 33430 tons compared with the previous week and 53870 tons compared with the same period. The social inventory was 467310 tons, an increase of 23970 tons compared with the previous week and 164930 tons compared with the same period [1].

热轧卷板周度数据（20251010） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 本周值 | | | 环比变化 | | 上月末值 | | | | 本月变化 | | | 同期值 | | | | | | 同期变化 | | 供给 | | | | | | 周度产量 | | | 323.29 | | -1.40 | | | 324.69 | | | | -1.40 | | | 308.19 | | | 15.10 | | | | | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | | | | 90.55 | | -0.10 | | | 90.65 | | | | -0.10 | ...