核心观点 今日各国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于政策利率的锚定效应显现，市场 利率继续上行的空间受限，因此国债期货触底回升。不过短期内国债期货的 上行动能预计有所不足。从政策面来看，货币政策以结构性宽松为主，侧重 在提振消费与扶持科技创新相关领域，全面降息的可能性有所下降。从资金 偏好来看，近期股市风险偏好持续上升，赚钱效应吸引资金投入股市获取更 高收益率，购买国债的资金需求有所下降。总的来说，短期内国债期货维持 底部震荡运行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅上涨 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，由于需求增长缓慢且供应激增，在 OPEC+产 油国扩增产量的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临创纪录供应过剩局面。虽然 IEA 同步上调了 今明两年的全球原油需求数据，但需求增速有所下滑，甚至不到 2023 年的一半。由此导致原油库存 将以 296 万桶日的速度累积，甚至超过 2020 年疫情期间的平均累积速度。随着美联储降息预期升温， 在偏多氛围支撑下，本周一夜盘国内原油期货 2510 合约维持震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked export sales, and slowed growth. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - positive atmosphere has strengthened. On the night of Monday this week, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.41% to 15,905 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber device load is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked export sales, and slowed growth. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - positive atmosphere has strengthened. On the night of Monday this week, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.21% to 11,950 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short, medium, and intraday terms [1][5] - With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. However, due to the slight increase in domestic coal futures prices and the improvement of macro factors, the weak industrial factors are suppressed, and the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [1][5] Price and Market Analysis - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure and a downward price center [5] - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a narrow volatile consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2423 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The power coal market is expected to shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic. Coal prices may reach a phased peak, but with the support of the "anti-involution" policy, the correction space for power coal in September is expected to be limited, and it will maintain a high-level volatile operation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Power Coal Spot - **Intraday and Mid - term View**: The reference view is "oscillation". As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power side. The focus of market game remains on the supply side. Under the "anti-involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs verification, market expectations have improved. Supply - side news is expected to form positive support. [5]

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report presents the basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads data of various commodities and stock index futures, which can help investors understand the price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in different markets Summary by Commodity Category 1. Thermal Coal - Basis data from August 19 - 25, 2025 shows that the basis on August 19 was - 99.4 yuan/ton, and from August 20 - 25 it was - 97.4 yuan/ton. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0.0 during this period [2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data on basis, ratio, etc. from August 19 - 25, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 25 was 91.81 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 19 - 25, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 25 was - 1055 yuan/ton. Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) and inter - commodity spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC) are also presented [9][11] 3. Black Metals - Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 34.0 yuan/ton. Inter - commodity spreads (e.g., rebar/iron ore) and basis data from August 19 - 25, 2025 are also included [20][21] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 19 - 25, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on August 25 was - 250 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss on August 22, 2025 are provided [35] 5. Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 19 - 25, 2025 are presented. Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) and inter - commodity spreads (e.g., soybeans No.1/corn) are also included [39] 6. Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 19 - 25, 2025 are provided. Inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are also given [51][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For both the 2601 contract of coking coal and coke, the short - term view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory and bullish, and the intraday view is upward, with an overall reference view of oscillation [1]. - Coking coal is affected by a combination of long and short factors and will oscillate within a range; coke is affected by environmental protection production restrictions and will operate at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement Logic**: The supply of coking coal has marginally increased. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country is 77.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, and 2.4 million tons lower than the same period last year; the daily average output of raw coal is 191.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 million tons, and 13.8 million tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port from August 1st to 18th increased by 81.8% year - on - year. The total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills increased slightly by 0.07 million tons week - on - week. Affected by factors such as supply increase, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, coking coal has undergone a phased adjustment, but the "anti - involution" theme may bring positive news, making coking coal futures more likely to rise than fall [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Movement Logic**: As the "anti - involution" theme gradually develops, the futures market has entered the verification stage from the previous strong cost - side expectation, increasing market competition. Coke futures are consolidating at a high level. Considering that the upstream may introduce relevant policies to cooperate with the "anti - involution" theme, the cost side is expected to form a positive support, and coke may show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall in the long - term [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the market's risk appetite has recovered, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term trends being upward, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that overseas macro conditions have improved, China is approaching the peak season, and industry support has been enhanced [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is still pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts within the year [3]. - **Core Logic**: Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the recovery of the market's risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The intraday price of copper pulled up in the late session, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 - yuan mark, and it maintained an oscillatory operation at night [4]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting significantly increased the market's risk appetite, which is beneficial to the copper price. At the industrial level, China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing (Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Monday was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons compared to last Thursday), and industry support is gradually strengthening. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient due to a decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and a rising risk appetite in the stock market. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, with an intraday view of slightly weak oscillation, mainly because the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that although treasury bond futures oscillated upwards yesterday, their upward momentum is insufficient. On one hand, the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and structuring, reducing the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the risk appetite in the stock market continues to rise, with the trading volume in the stock market exceeding 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds to flow into the stock market and suppressing the demand for purchasing treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures, so they will maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall reference view for financial futures in the stock index sector is "up". The short - term view is "sideways to bullish", and the medium - term view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and factors such as increased trading volume, positive policies, loose liquidity, and the Fed's dovish turn drive the stock index's valuation repair [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "up", the intraday view is "sideways to bullish", and the reference view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indices fluctuated upwards. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.177 trillion yuan, an increase of 598.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds into the stock market and driving the stock index's valuation repair. Positive policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote price index recovery, and boost corporate profit repair expectations. Loose domestic liquidity and the Fed's dovish turn also contribute to the inflow of funds into the stock market, making the short - term risk preference positive and the stock index running sideways to bullish [5].