1. Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "sideways", and the intraday views are "sideways to the downside". The overall reference view is a sideways trading approach [1]. - For coking coal, the pessimistic market sentiment dominates, leading to its weak performance. For coke, the weak fundamentals cause it to decline sideways [1]. 2. Price and Logic for Coking Coal - The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1170.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerating release of Mongolian coking coal imports exerts pressure on the supply side, driving the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the actual coal mine production [5]. 3. Price and Logic for Coke - The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. Currently, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the possible macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the decline in coke remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly abundant supply of coking coal [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车-2025-12-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10. ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with a weak supply - demand pattern leading to a high - level decline in ore prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile due to the poor supply - demand pattern [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. At the end of the year, steel mills' maintenance increases, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption. With the poor profit situation, the weak demand pattern is hard to change, putting pressure on ore prices. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals decline, overseas miners' shipments increase, and both are at relatively high levels within the year. Although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the iron ore market fundamentals are weak, and ore prices continue to be under pressure to run weakly [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 参考观点： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Although there are expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, there is supply pressure on long - term bonds in the short term and institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, so there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. The Politburo meeting indicates that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, so there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, considering the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first quarter and the supply pressure of long - term bonds, as well as institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 1.92 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 1340 亿元。政治局会议指出 2026 年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现"近强远弱"格局，豆粕 2605 及远月合约均大幅下挫，期价承压下行。 主要受到国际与国内双重利空因素的压制。美豆期价震荡下行，对国内豆类市场的支撑减弱。美豆期 价走弱的核心原因在于中国采购进度持续低于市场预期，未能给美豆出口提供支撑，同时南美大豆丰 产的预期持续发酵，进一步加剧了全球大豆供应宽松的格局。市场普遍预期即将发布的美国农业部月 度报告将上调美豆期末库存，令美豆价格在报告前维持偏弱运行态势。国内市场同样面临压力。国家 专业研究·创造价值 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the crude oil 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, with an overall view of weak operation. This is due to the increasing bearish sentiment in the market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Time - cycle Analysis - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to be weak, with a view of weak operation [1][5]. Driving Logic - Geopolitical factor: The potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with the US mediating to end the war, has weakened the geopolitical premium and reduced the impetus for the rebound of international oil prices [5]. - Supply factor: Saudi Arabia has lowered the prices of its main crude oil varieties for Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market [5]. - Market structure factor: The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. - Market performance: On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a weak pattern on Wednesday [5].