Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall reference view for financial futures in the stock index sector is "up". The short - term view is "sideways to bullish", and the medium - term view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and factors such as increased trading volume, positive policies, loose liquidity, and the Fed's dovish turn drive the stock index's valuation repair [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "up", the intraday view is "sideways to bullish", and the reference view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indices fluctuated upwards. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.177 trillion yuan, an increase of 598.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds into the stock market and driving the stock index's valuation repair. Positive policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote price index recovery, and boost corporate profit repair expectations. Loose domestic liquidity and the Fed's dovish turn also contribute to the inflow of funds into the stock market, making the short - term risk preference positive and the stock index running sideways to bullish [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored. The fundamentals are stable, with the demand showing certain resilience and the supply remaining relatively stable, but the upward driving force is not strong as the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term trend is moderately strong with fluctuations, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is moderately weak with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are stable and the ore price fluctuates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has stabilized at a high level, and the demand shows certain resilience, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking and production restrictions are frequent, so the positive effect is limited. The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined again, but the shipments from overseas miners have stabilized at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase. The domestic ore supply is weak, and the overall ore supply is relatively stable. Currently, the ore demand has resilience and the market sentiment has improved, strongly supporting the ore price, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially and the valuation is moderately high, so the upward driving force is not strong [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand pattern and the oscillatory operation of steel prices [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Although the supply has shrunk, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the reduction space is limited. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, and the downstream shows no improvement. Market sentiment has improved, and raw material price increases provide cost support. However, the weak fundamentals during the off - season limit the upward drive, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with attention on demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Time Cycle and View - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The view reference is to focus on the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the oscillatory operation of steel prices [2]. Market Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton restricts further reduction. Demand is seasonally weak, and the downstream situation is not improving. Market sentiment has improved, and raw material price increases support costs. However, the weak off - season fundamentals result in limited upward drive, and steel prices are expected to oscillate, with demand performance being a key factor [3].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the 50.2% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - Shanghai introduced a package of real estate policies, including relaxed housing purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits for green buildings, and unified mortgage rates for first and second homes [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market, aiming to basically complete the national carbon emission trading market by 2030 [2] - The CSRC issued the Interim Provisions on the Internet Marketing Management of Futures Companies, which will take effect on October 9 [2] Metals - KGHM's copper production in July was 59,900 tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease, and sales were 56,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year decrease [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On August 25, futures prices of iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and rebar rose. Rebar's performance this year has been mainly affected by the real estate industry [4] - In mid - August, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, a 1.98% month - on - month and 6.1% year - on - year increase [4][5] - Henan coking enterprises will implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20 - 35% [5] Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices may be lowered for the seventh time this year, with an expected reduction of about 200 yuan/ton on August 26 [6] - On August 25, international oil prices continued to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions and supply - side factors [6] - The Ministry of Natural Resources organized the listing of 7 oil and gas exploration rights, indicating a new wave of oil and gas exploration and development [6] Agricultural Products - As of mid - August, the price of soybean meal rose 2.59% month - on - month to 3049.3 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since early May [8] - The price of soybeans rose 1.2% month - on - month to 4443.1 yuan/ton, a new high since early August 2024 [8] - The price of live pigs (outside ternary) fell 0.72% month - on - month to 13.8 yuan/kg, a new low since late February 2024 [8] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On August 25, the central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 21.9 billion yuan [11] - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [11] Important News - Shanghai introduced real estate policies to stimulate the market [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand [12] - Multiple regions issued plans to promote the high - quality development of the private economy [12] Bond Market Summary - Bond futures and spot bonds showed an independent trend. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds [15] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% to 490.98 points, hitting a new high in more than ten years [16] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1517 on August 25, up 288 points from the previous trading day [20] - The US dollar index rose 0.74% to 98.44 in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [20] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that in a slow - bull stock market, bond trading can increase portfolio returns, and the current credit bond carry trade space is high [22] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the current bond market has weak coupon protection and high volatility, and recommends curve steepening trades [22] Group 4: Stock Market - A - share major indices rose significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also had large gains [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.94% to 25829.91 points, hitting a new high in nearly four years [26] - The scale of China's ETF market is about to reach 5 trillion yuan [26]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils on August 26, 2025, covering the price trends, views, and core logics of multiple agricultural product futures varieties [1]. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Views - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectations in the soybean market has not changed, and short - term soybean futures prices are highly volatile at high levels. Affected by the changes in the prospects of Sino - US trade negotiations, short - term funds on the futures market enter and exit frequently, which may continue to intensify market fluctuations. Short - term soybean meal futures prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels [5]. - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures prices. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels with strong support below. After a short - term continuous rise, short - term funds closing their positions cause the palm oil futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves the import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic includes the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand [7][8]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic is related to the US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally interpreted as "dovish." His speech signaled that the Fed is more concerned about employment and economic growth when balancing the risks of "rising inflation" and "falling employment." It paved the way for a near - term interest rate cut and revised the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][23]. - After Powell's speech, the short - term interest rate cut expectation increased, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the dollar index linkage graph, but no specific text description of the weekly trend is provided [6]. 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 22 | August 15 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,417.20 | $3,381.70 | 1.05% | | COMEX Silver | $38.88 | $38.02 | 2.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | $773.40 | $775.80 | - 0.31% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | $9,192.00 | $9,204.00 | - 0.13% | | Dollar Index | 97.72 | 97.85 | - 0.14% | | USD/CNH | 7.17 | 7.19 | - 0.24% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.85 | 1.95 | - 0.10 | | S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | 6,449.80 | 0.27% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $63.77 | $63.14 | 1.00% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 87.89 | 88.95 | - 1.19% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.14 | 84.29 | - 0.18% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 956.77 | 965.37 | - 8.60 | | iShare Gold ETF | 451.68 | 453.29 | - 1.61 | [7] 3.2 Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price was under pressure due to the improving relations between the US and Russia, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the improving global geopolitical situation. However, on Friday night, after Powell's dovish speech, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the dollar index plunged, and the gold price jumped [9]. - Last week, there was a divergence among US stock indices, with technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq generally correcting. But after Powell's dovish speech on Friday night, US stocks rose sharply again, and market risk appetite recovered [11]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to data on August 19, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was - 12,838 contracts, the short - position change was 4,057 contracts, and the net long - position change was - 16,895 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [13]. - Recently, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have decreased, especially gold ETFs. Last week, the gold price was weak, the silver price was strong, and the gold - silver ratio declined [15][18]. 3.4 Conclusion - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, increasing short - term interest rate cut expectations, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [23].

Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - Industry: Non - ferrous Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Copper: With rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's interest - rate cut expectations increased, leading to a rise in copper prices. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and the domestic industry entering the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. On the industrial side, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly last Thursday, and downstream aluminum rod inventory continued to decline slowly. [4][52] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was interpreted as dovish, strongly suggesting a possible monetary policy adjustment and a significant increase in the possibility of a September interest - rate cut. His speech focused on economic risk assessment and the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework. [8] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Powell's dovish speech, copper prices rose. [3][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Remain Low - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting. [24] 2.3 Slower De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - The de - stocking of domestic electrolytic copper has slowed down. [29] 2.4 Downstream Primary End - Copper downstream monthly capacity utilization data is presented, including for products like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips. [32][34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. Aluminum prices were stronger than the overall non - ferrous metal sector. [4][52] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Aluminum bauxite port inventory and alumina price data are presented. [39][40][41] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are provided. [42][43] 3.4 Downstream Primary End - Aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory data are presented. [45][49][50] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With overseas macro improvement and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and enhanced domestic industrial support, aluminum futures prices are expected to be strong. [4][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Shanghai copper, the price increased with rising positions during the night session last Friday and maintained strong performance today, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 mark. The dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd led to a significant increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, strengthening industrial support. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price showed an upward trend during the night session last Friday and maintained a volatile trend today. The rising overseas interest - rate cut expectation has increased market risk appetite. However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories increased on Monday. With the improvement of the macro situation and the weak industrial reality, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price hit the bottom and rebounded last Friday, and the main contract price fluctuated above 120,000 today. Although the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded with the improvement of the overseas macro situation, nickel underperformed the sector. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories is suppressing nickel prices. With the improvement of the macro situation and industrial negatives, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [6]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared to August 18 and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to August 21 [8]. Aluminum - On August 25, the spot inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to August 18 and an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 21 [9]. Nickel - On August 25, for the mainstream reference contract SHFE nickel 2509 in the Shanghai market, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,610 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,510 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,560 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][16][20]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum average price spread, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][30][31]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" theme is gradually fermenting, and the futures market is transitioning from the strong cost-side expectation of "shrinking coking coal supply supporting the rise of coke" to the verification stage, with increased market gaming. Coke futures are consolidating at high levels. In the medium to long term, coke may show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall due to potential favorable policies related to "anti-involution" [5][35]. - Although the supply of coking coal has marginally increased this week, with domestic production rising and significant growth in Mongolian coal imports, and it has experienced a phased adjustment due to factors such as supply recovery, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, the "anti-involution" theme is still expected to bring positive news-driven factors, making coking coal futures also more likely to rise than fall [6][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and the net injection scale has significantly expanded [8]. - On August 25, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 at 1,470 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi-first-grade平仓) | 1,520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +7.04% | -10.06% | -12.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi-first-grade出库) | 1,470 yuan/ton | -0.68% | +5.00% | -9.26% | -14.04% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | -15.60% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,530 yuan/ton | -1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | -12.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,630 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,736.0 | 4.36 | 1,754.0 | 1,672.0 | 37,931 | 16,359 | 40,659 | 2,368 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,215.5 | 6.48 | 1,229.5 | 1,162.0 | 1,938,899 | 614,426 | 722,514 | 21,826 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but specific data and trends are not described in text [14][26][33] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that both coke and coking coal are more likely to rise than fall in the medium to long term due to the potential positive impact of the "anti-involution" theme [5][6][35][36]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being volatile, volatile, and volatile - bullish respectively [1][5]. - The methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, but due to the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors, the weak industrial factors are suppressed, and the methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile - bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.79% to 2429 yuan/ton on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market returns to being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward price trend [5]. - The sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and improved macro factors suppress the weak industrial factors, resulting in a volatile - bullish trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract [5].