Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis and forecasts for coking coal and coke futures on August 27, 2025 [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". The coking coal market has a mix of long and short factors, and the futures' main contract is oscillating within a range [1][5]. - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". In the medium and long term, coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [1][6]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes. Over - production inspections and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still suppress supply. Meanwhile, environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills before the September 3rd parade reduce short - term demand. Although the impact of the "anti - involution" has been released, it may still bring positive news in the future, making the short - selling atmosphere cautious [5]. Coke (J) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [6]. - **Core Logic**: The intensified long - short divergence in the coking coal market has led to high - level oscillating consolidation of coke futures. The futures market has entered the verification stage from the previous strong cost - side expectation. Considering the possible subsequent policies related to "anti - involution" in the coal industry, the cost - side news is expected to form positive support, and coke may be easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The ore demand has decent resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the valuation is relatively high, resulting in weak upward driving forces. Under the game of long - and short - term factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For Iron ore 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has decent resilience, leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the ore demand has decent resilience, which supports the ore price. But the steel mills' profits are continuously shrinking, and the contradictions in the steel industry are accumulating, so the positive effect is limited. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, and the overseas miners' shipments are weakening from a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian ore will still increase in the future. The relatively positive factor is that the domestic ore supply is low, and the ore supply is increasing steadily [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela on the crude oil market [3][4]. - The report was published on August 26, 2025, by Baocheng Futures Research Institute [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US deployment of an expeditionary strike group near Venezuela is an "extreme pressure" tactic, reflecting geopolitical, energy - security, and great - power games [4][8]. - This action brings both a glimmer of hope for the recovery of Venezuela's crude oil industry and seeds of new turmoil [4]. - The future of Venezuela is an important window for observing the game between "US hegemony" and the "multipolar world" [4]. Group 4: Chapter Summaries Introduction: US Sends Fleet to Apply Extreme Pressure on Venezuela - In late August 2025, the US sent an expeditionary strike group to waters near Venezuela under the pretext of anti - drug and security, which is widely seen as a move against the Maduro regime [4][8]. Chapter 1: South American Geopolitical Crisis and Crude Oil Futures Rebound - Due to the South American geopolitical crisis and increased supply risks of Venezuelan crude oil, recent domestic and international crude oil futures prices have stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded slightly [9]. - US WTI crude oil futures rose from $61.45/barrel to $65.10/barrel, a 5.94% increase; Brent crude oil futures rose from $65.01/barrel to $69.07/barrel, a 6.25% increase; domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 rose from 479 yuan/barrel to 500.8 yuan/barrel, a 4.55% increase [9]. Chapter 2: Historical Crude Oil Feud between the US and Venezuela - The relationship between the US and Venezuela has been a complex "feud" centered around oil, which is a microcosm of global energy, geopolitics, and ideological conflicts [16]. - In the early 20th century, US oil companies dominated Venezuela's oil industry. In the 1970s, Venezuela nationalized its oil resources [16][17]. - After Chavez came to power in 1999, he used oil as an "anti - US tool", which intensified the conflict with the US. Since 2017, the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela, but in 2023, it relaxed restrictions on Chevron [19][20][21]. Chapter 3: Venezuela, an Energy Power with the World's Largest Oil Reserves - Venezuela has about 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, ranking first in the world. In July 2025, its crude oil production was 914,000 barrels per day, and from January to July 2025, it was 6.45 million barrels per day [4][25]. - Its oil resources include conventional oil in the Maracaibo Lake area and heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco Belt holds about 220 billion barrels of recoverable heavy oil, accounting for over 75% of the country's total reserves [25][27]. - Despite having large reserves, Venezuela's oil production has been severely affected by various factors such as sanctions and management issues. However, it has great potential for recovery [29][30]. Chapter 4: Impact of the US - Venezuela Conflict on Crude Oil Futures Prices - The US military action and economic "selective opening" policy towards Venezuela have complex and far - reaching impacts on the global crude oil market [32][33]. - Short - term supply fluctuations and price risks are intensified. If the conflict worsens, Venezuelan oil exports may be interrupted, causing short - term price jumps [34]. - The trend of diversification of the global crude oil supply pattern is strengthened, and energy nationalism and geopolitical risk premiums may become normalized [34][35]. Chapter 5: Analysis of the Impact of Venezuelan Crude Oil on China's Asphalt - Venezuela is an important source of asphalt raw material imports for China. Its heavy crude oil with high viscosity and high residue content is suitable for asphalt production [39][42]. - Although direct imports from Venezuela have decreased due to US sanctions, the energy complementarity between the two countries still exists, and Venezuelan crude oil may play an important role in China's asphalt industry in the future [42]. Chapter 6: Summary - The game between the US and Venezuela in the crude oil field will continue, and its direction depends on factors such as US domestic politics and economy, the stability of the Maduro regime, and international reactions [43]. - The US military action is a manifestation of geopolitical, energy - security, and great - power games, which affects Venezuela's crude oil industry and the global energy market [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price center slightly moved up to the 15,885 yuan/ton level during the session, and closed slightly up 0.28% to 15,885 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 995 yuan/ton. With the game between the improvement of macro - expectations and the negative factors of the industry, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,430 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,392 yuan/ton, and closed down 1.16% to 2,395 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 500.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 494.0 yuan/barrel, and closed slightly up 0.53% to 496.1 yuan/barrel. With the digestion of previous negative factors and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales expanded by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels/day [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,885 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 935 yuan/ton | +120 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,395 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | 496.1 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire start - up rate trend, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, semi - steel tire start - up rate trend, and rubber 9 - 1 month spread [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, methanol inland social inventory, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 26, 2025, the stock indices showed narrow - range fluctuations. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the significant gains of some stocks, the willingness of profit - taking funds to close positions increased, and the stock indices needed technical adjustments. The previously high - flying sectors showed signs of capital rotation. The stock market sentiment remained relatively optimistic, supported by positive policy expectations, and the continuous inflow of funds promoted valuation repair. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimized the supply - demand structure, promoted a moderate recovery of the price index, repaired corporate profits, and drove a positive cycle. With the downward trend of market interest rates and loose liquidity, incremental funds from insurance, social security, margin trading, and private equity continued to flow into the stock market. In the short term, the stock market sentiment remained positive, and the stock indices were expected to fluctuate strongly. Given the continuous rise of implied volatility in options and the long - term upward trend of stock indices, it was advisable to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild long - position view [3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Option Indicators - On August 26, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.74% to 3.101; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.53% to 4.541; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.57% to 4.685; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.37% to 4452.59; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.02% to 7476.47; 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.16% to 7.048; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 0.04% to 2.814; the GEM ETF fell 0.77% to 2.716; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.09% to 3.274; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.67% to 2969.78; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.47% to 1.34; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.51% to 1.31 [6] - The PCR values of various options, including trading volume PCR and open interest PCR, changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of 50ETF options was 70.85 (previous day: 59.17), and the open interest PCR was 114.88 (previous day: 119.83) [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for different options were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of 50ETF options was 22.97%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.26% [8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10][11][12][14][17][19] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [22][23][24][29][31][33] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [25][26][27][29][31][33] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [37][38][39][41][43][47] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts involve the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [50][51][52][54][58][60] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [63][64][65][67][71][73] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [76][77][78][80][85][86] - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts involve the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [89][90][91][93][97][99] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts cover the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [102][103][104][105][108][110] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [113][114][115][117][121][123] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [126][127][128][132][135][136] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [133][134][135][136][139][140]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素交织，煤焦区间震荡 核心观点 焦炭：午后焦煤主力合约增仓下行，带动焦炭期货走弱。现阶段，随着 "反内卷"题材逐渐发酵，期货市场由此前的"焦煤供应收缩，支撑焦炭 上行"的成本端强预期，逐渐进入到现实验证环节，市场博弈增加，焦炭 期货高位整理。考虑到后续上游仍有可能进一步配合"反内卷"出台相关 政策措施，成本端消息面依然有望形成利好支撑，中长期来看焦炭或表现 出易涨难跌的特征。 焦煤：焦煤基本面并无明显变化，超产核查以及山西强降雨仍对供应产生 一定压制，但同时 93 大阅兵前焦化厂、钢厂环保限产，焦煤需求短期也 面临一定压力。此外，虽然"反内卷"影响阶段性释放，但后续仍有带来 消息面利多驱动的可能，空头氛围相对谨慎。整体来看，现阶段焦煤多空 因素交织，市场分歧增加，期货主力合约区间震荡运行，持续关注"反内 卷"整治工作的进展。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price showed a downward trend today, with the trading volume slightly decreasing. On the macro - level, the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic macro - atmosphere were negative factors for the copper price. On the industrial side, as the peak season approached in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, which supported the copper price. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated within a narrow range today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. On the macro - level, the domestic macro - atmosphere cooled, leading to a weak performance of the non - ferrous metal sector. On the industrial side, the continuous accumulation of electrolytic aluminum inventory was negative for the aluminum price. However, as the industrial peak season approached, industrial support might continue to strengthen. It was expected that the aluminum price would fluctuate [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated within a narrow range above 120,000 yuan today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. The cooling of the domestic atmosphere had little impact on nickel. On the industrial side, the trading of nickel ore was fair, and the ore price remained stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and refined nickel inventory suppressed the nickel price. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 26, some copper cable enterprises reported that after the copper price soared above 79,500 yuan/ton yesterday and remained at a high level, the order - receiving capacity of terminal downstream significantly weakened, the industry's consumption side showed a weak trend, and the overall order - receiving rhythm slowed down. On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared with the 18th and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared with the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics, on August 26, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons compared with the previous trading day and an increase of 914 tons compared with last Tuesday (August 19). On August 25, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the 18th and an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,000 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provided charts including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report provided charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report provided charts including nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio [37][41][45].

核心观点 今日各国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于政策利率的锚定效应显现，市场 利率继续上行的空间受限，因此国债期货触底回升。不过短期内国债期货的 上行动能预计有所不足。从政策面来看，货币政策以结构性宽松为主，侧重 在提振消费与扶持科技创新相关领域，全面降息的可能性有所下降。从资金 偏好来看，近期股市风险偏好持续上升，赚钱效应吸引资金投入股市获取更 高收益率，购买国债的资金需求有所下降。总的来说，短期内国债期货维持 底部震荡运行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅上涨 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，由于需求增长缓慢且供应激增，在 OPEC+产 油国扩增产量的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临创纪录供应过剩局面。虽然 IEA 同步上调了 今明两年的全球原油需求数据，但需求增速有所下滑，甚至不到 2023 年的一半。由此导致原油库存 将以 296 万桶日的速度累积，甚至超过 2020 年疫情期间的平均累积速度。随着美联储降息预期升温， 在偏多氛围支撑下，本周一夜盘国内原油期货 2510 合约维持震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1 ...