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宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年12月11日)-20251211
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 01:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will experience low - level fluctuations in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, leading the steel price to rebound from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has dropped to a low level, providing support for the steel price, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved, with subsequent seasonal weakening, which will drag down the steel price. Overall, the steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations, so the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "slightly stronger oscillation", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, causing the steel price to rebound from a low level. The supply of rebar has dropped to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is uncertain. The demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, downstream industries have not improved, and the demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [2].
宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-11-20251211
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 01:44
期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-11 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现,甲醇震荡企稳 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 品种晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 甲醇(MA) 日内观点:偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:偏强运行 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑:随着前期利多因素逐渐消化,受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大,同时面对国内煤炭期 货价格大幅回调的拖累,甲醇期货反弹受阻,转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库 存小幅回落,但依然处于高位。同时下 ...
宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-11-20251211
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 01:44
宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-11 品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现,沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现,合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
一、动力煤:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年12月11日)-20251211
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 01:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 11, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from December 4 to December 10, 2025, shows that the basis was - 10.4 yuan/ton on December 4 and decreased to - 40.4 yuan/ton on December 10. The data of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data such as basis, price ratio, and spreads of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were provided. For example, the price ratio of crude oil/asphalt was 0.37 on December 4 and changed to 0.60 on December 10 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were presented. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 390 yuan/ton on December 4 and - 365 yuan/ton on December 10 [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 25 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2280 yuan/ton on December 4 and 2211 yuan/ton on December 10 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were shown. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 was 145 yuan/ton on December 4 and 183 yuan/ton on December 10 [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month were presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was - 1.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - hot - rolled coil from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were provided. For example, the 螺/矿 ratio was 3.98 on December 4 and 4.05 on December 10 [20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were given. For example, the basis of copper was - 10 yuan/ton on December 4 and - 10 yuan/ton on December 10 [30] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 10, 2025, were presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 11.69, and the import profit and loss was - 1205.42 yuan/ton [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 was - 85 yuan/ton on December 4 and - 141 yuan/ton on December 10 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No. 1 was 35 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of 豆一/玉米, 豆二/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, 豆粕 - 菜粕, 豆油 - 棕榈油, 菜油 - 豆油, and 玉米 - 玉米淀粉 from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were provided. For example, the 豆一/玉米 ratio was 1.81 on December 4 and 1.85 on December 10 [40][41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 4 to December 10, 2025, were given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 15.97 on December 4 and 17.63 on December 10 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for 次月 - 当月 and 次季 - 当季 were presented. For example, the 次月 - 当月 spread of CSI 300 was - 164 [52]
有益的启示
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:56
Group 1: Report Core View - "Sakata Method" is a K - line analysis system founded by Homma Munehisa, a rice merchant in the Edo period of Japan, and it has remained a classic trading theory [2]. - The method has expanded from the rice market to various trading fields such as stocks, futures, and foreign exchange, and is still useful today [2]. - "Sakata Method" follows four principles: trend - first, emphasis on stop - loss and take - profit, focus on mindset management, and reasonable fund allocation [3]. - A case shows that an investor named Kobayashi successfully used "Sakata Method" to gain profits in the crude oil futures market [3][4]. - "Sakata Method" helps investors manage risks, pursue maximum returns, and avoid emotional decisions, and is worthy of in - depth study [4]. Group 2: Summary by Related Information Origin and Development of "Sakata Method" - "Sakata Method" was created by Homma Munehisa in the Edo period when Japan's commodity market was active, and it gradually formed a complete trading system [2]. - Over time, it has spread to multiple trading fields and combined with modern technical analysis tools [2]. Principles of "Sakata Method" - Trend - first: Identify market trends (up, down, or consolidation) through specific K - line combinations like "Three Soldiers" and "Three Rivers" [3]. - Emphasis on stop - loss and take - profit: Set clear stop - loss and take - profit levels and execute them promptly [3]. - Mindset management: Keep calm and rational during trading [3]. - Reasonable fund allocation: Avoid over - concentrating investment in a single variety or direction [3]. Case Study - In October 2022, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Kobayashi identified an "Ascending Three Methods" pattern in the crude oil market using "Sakata Method" [3]. - Kobayashi bought crude oil futures contracts, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, adopted a batch - building strategy, adjusted the stop - loss level during the holding period, and finally achieved the expected profit [3].
煤焦日报:偏空情绪主导,煤焦弱势运行-20251210
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,527 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.36%. The position of the main contract was 26,038 lots, a decrease of 1,960 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained unchanged week-on-week. The supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures, but considering the potential macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of coke's decline needs further observation. The main negative risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][35]. - On December 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070 points, with an intraday decline of 1.29%. The position of the main contract was 507,274 lots, an increase of 12,553 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerated release of Mongolian coal imports has brought supply - side pressure, leading to the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of this round of decline in coking coal futures needs further observation. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [5][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to November, national railway fixed - asset investment reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, which effectively promoted social investment and supported high - quality economic and social development [7]. - On December 10, the auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market decreased. Among the 6 reported transactions, the total listed volume was 83,000 tons, with 58,000 tons sold and a non - sale rate of about 30% (up from 18% last week). The average transaction price of high - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 1,221 yuan/ton, while the average transaction prices of low - sulfur main coking coal were 1,404 yuan/ton and 1,443 yuan/ton respectively. In the short term, prices are weakly stable [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 6.90% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | - 8.59% | - 0.85% | - 5.65% | | Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 5.10% | 0.00% | - 5.10% | | Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,527 yuan/ton | + 0.36% | 1,562 yuan/ton | 1,513.5 yuan/ton | 21,233 lots | 6,900 lots | 26,038 lots | - 1,960 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,070 points | - 1.29% | 1,095.5 points | 1,067 points | 903,929 lots | 117,173 lots | 507,274 lots | 12,553 lots | [12] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant inventory), as well as other relevant data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][21][28] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the impact of coking coal supply pressure on the weak operation of both, while also considering the potential positive factors from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year. The sustainability of the decline in both needs further observation [5][35]
钢材&铁矿石日报:利好预期发酵,钢矿触底回升-20251210
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:18
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 利好预期发酵,钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价触底回升,录得 0.97%日涨幅,量增仓缩。现阶段, 螺纹供应降至低位,给予钢价支撑,而需求季节性走弱,基本面并无实 质性改善,钢价继续承压,相对利好的是政策预期与估值偏低,后续走 势维持低位震荡运行,关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价震荡走高,录得 0.58%日涨幅,量增 ...
股指短线震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 126 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The policy side indicated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, sending out positive signals [4]. - The expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and market risk appetite is rising. However, it is still necessary to wait for more policy details to be introduced in the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and the fact that the Politburo meeting's statement on aggregate policies did not exceed expectations, the stock indices still need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term and are currently within the fluctuation range [4]. - Overall, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and in the short term, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate strongly. For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **Stock Index Performance**: On December 10, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.32% to close at 3.132; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.13% to close at 4.702; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.17% to close at 4.775; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.14% to close at 4591.83; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.37% to close at 7408.24; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.54% to close at 7.263; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.56% to close at 2.860; the GEM ETF rose 0.13% to close at 3.192; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.23% to close at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.31% to close at 2988.64; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.07% to close at 1.42; the E Fund STAR 50ETF remained unchanged at 1.37 [6]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 85.15 (previous day: 79.26), and the open interest PCR was 97.51 (previous day: 100.45) [7]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of the 2025 December at - the - money options of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF options' 2025 December at - the - money options was 11.35%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.09% [8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [21][22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [36][37][38]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [49][50][51]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [62][63][64]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [75][76][77]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [88][89][90]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [101][102][103]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [115][116][117]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [128][129][130]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [135][136][137].
碳酸锂走强:碳酸锂日报-20251210
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 09:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures is on the rise, while the spot price is slightly declining. The basis is negative, and the registered warehouse receipts are increasing. There is no obvious pressure of inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE is 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan/ton (+3.43%) from the previous day, and the settlement price is 95,100 yuan/ton, up 1,520 yuan/ton. Compared with five trading days ago, the closing price is up 2,320 yuan/ton, and the settlement price is up 200 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian lithium spodumene concentrates imported into China have all decreased compared with the previous week, while the price of South African lithium spodumene ore remains unchanged. The prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents have also decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous week [7]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate is 92,640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day and 1,650 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 81,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 730 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate is -10,750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day and 920 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Ternary Materials and Downstream Products**: The prices of ternary precursors and materials remain unchanged, and the prices of some downstream products such as electrolyte and cathode materials also remain stable [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Include charts of lithium mica price changes, lithium carbonate futures main contract price, lithium carbonate spot price, lithium hydroxide price, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Include charts of manganese - acid lithium price, iron - phosphate lithium price, cobalt - acid lithium price, ternary precursor price, and ternary material price [11][15]. - **Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts**: Include charts of lithium carbonate main contract trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts [16][17].
有色日内回升
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 09:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures rebounded with increasing positions, and the price rose back to the 92,000 yuan mark. The weakening US dollar index in the afternoon and the warming domestic macro - atmosphere were positive for non - ferrous metals. However, rising copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption. With the upcoming December Fed meeting resolution, short - term long - short competition has intensified. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **沪铝**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures also rebounded with increasing positions, reaching the 22,000 yuan mark. The weakening US dollar and improved domestic macro - environment were favorable. Rising aluminum prices led to increased downstream waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪镍**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel futures rebounded with decreasing positions, rising to the 117,000 yuan mark. It followed the general rebound of non - ferrous metals. High - level and slow de - stocking of port nickel ore inventory and rising inventory of electrolytic nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange put pressure on prices, while a firm spot premium provided support. With low short - term capital attention, it is expected to follow the overall non - ferrous metal sector [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The installation of centralized energy storage systems in North America is accelerating. Samsung SDI's US subsidiary will supply LFP batteries for an energy infrastructure company, with a contract worth over 2 trillion won. The energy storage sector has driven copper demand growth, and SMM expects global copper consumption in energy storage to increase by over 50% in 2025 compared to the previous year [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 10, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,400 - 121,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 119,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 5,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot premium and discount range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [12][13][19]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][47].