Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel Products [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This period saw a decrease in production and inventory and an increase in apparent demand for rebar; for hot-rolled coils, production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products rebounded month-on-month. Pay attention to opportunities for the narrowing of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [5]. - The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. - The hot-rolled coil 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In August, the month-on-month decline in new real estate starts narrowed [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel products, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 59,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 659,000 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5695 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 636,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1.647 million tons. The rebar output was 2.0116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 224,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 4.291 million tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2184 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 145,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.655 million tons [7]. - The EAF start-up rate was 68.85%, a month-on-month increase of 1.79% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.8226 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.846 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.0971 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.4105 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.859 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.1397 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1919 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 629,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 493,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.7541 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3996 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 355,600 tons [7].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年10月17日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 基本面要点： 基本面信息： 观点： 铁水环比下降；港库累积，钢厂库存环比下降。铁矿石上行空间有限。 铁矿石2601合约震荡。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal 2601 contract is in a volatile state, with mine inventory accumulating and environmental and safety inspections starting [5]. - The coke 2601 contract is also in a volatile state, and some coke enterprises are proposing a second round of price increases [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt price is 1124, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt price is 1222, coke warehouse receipt price is 1586, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1579 [11]. 3.2 Demand, Profit, and Production - The coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 145, with a week - on - week decrease of 26 [11]. - The full - caliber daily coke output is 111.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.75 tons [11]. - The pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.59 tons [11]. - The coal washery output is 26.79 tons (due to changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 tons [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 891.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.55 tons. Coking plant coke inventory is 57.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.82 tons. Steel mill coke inventory is 639.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.45 tons. Port inventory is 195.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.92 tons [13]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2058.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.22 tons and a year - on - year increase of 37.26 tons. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 997.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.91 tons. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 788.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.66 tons. Port inventory is 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 137.85 tons. Coal washery inventory is 290.41 tons (due to data sample changes), a week - on - week increase of 10.18 tons [15]. 3.4 Import and Export - From January to August, the imported coking coal was 72.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.01%. From January to August, the exported coke was 4.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.15% [17].

Report Summary 1. Sugar - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September 2025 increased by 10.76% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, but the sugar production ratio dropped to 51.17%, easing some of the production increase pressure. In the domestic market, spot sugar prices continued to decline, with Guangxi sugar prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton to 5,710 - 5,810 yuan/ton, and Yunnan down 10 yuan/ton to 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton. The import pressure remains, with the import volume in August reaching 825,000 tons, a record high for the same period. The new sugar - crushing season is delayed, and the de - stocking of old sugar is crucial. The market is awaiting import data and new - season production estimates [3]. - **Futures Prices**: On October 17, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,412 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.53%. Other contracts also showed different price changes [4]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., Nanning - SR01, Kunming - SR01) had various daily and weekly changes [4][12]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, had daily and weekly changes. The profit margins for Brazilian sugar, both within and outside the quota, also showed seasonal patterns [15][16]. 2. Cotton - **Industry Situation**: Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton is gradually entering the centralized acquisition stage, with the acquisition price slightly rising recently, and the production increase expectation slightly revised. However, the downstream peak season is weakening, market confidence is insufficient, and the new cotton supply pressure will gradually emerge. Under the high - yield pattern, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. The US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, 2025 [17]. - **Futures Prices**: On October 17, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [18]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different cotton futures contracts (e.g., cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., cotton basis) had different daily and weekly changes [19]. 3. Apples - **Industry Situation**: In the northwestern and Shandong apple - producing areas, late - maturing Fuji apples are generally in the coloring stage after bag - removal, and a small amount of red apples are on the market. Continuous rainy weather has slowed down the coloring in the western regions, and some bag - removal work in Shandong has been delayed. The supply of red apples is postponed compared to last year. There is a situation of high - quality apples at high prices and low - quality apples at low prices, but the risk of "bad money driving out good" should be guarded against [22]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, AP01 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.35% and a weekly decrease of 1.36%. Spot prices of different apple varieties in different regions also showed different changes [23]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different apple futures contracts (e.g., AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., apple main contract basis) had various daily and weekly changes [24]. 4. Red Dates - **Industry Situation**: The new - season red dates are about to be harvested. Some inland merchants have gone to the producing areas to order orchards, but the contract volume is still small. The current weather in the producing areas is good. With the high inventory of old dates, red dates may still face downward pressure [30]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different red date futures contracts (e.g., red date futures 01 - 05, red date futures 05 - 09) showed different trends [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The September USDA report showed an increase in US soybean production, a decrease in global production, and an increase in US soybean inventory, with an overall neutral - weak report. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to soybean purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and the supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply may face uncertainty after November due to unconfirmed purchases from December to January. Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. - For rapeseed meal, domestic supply - demand changes are small. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. - In the palm oil market, this month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report. Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme. Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. - For soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage. Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on the soybean market, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production [5]. - China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply after November may be affected by unconfirmed purchases from December to January [5]. - Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand changes are small, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed [5]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also brings uncertainty to future imports [5]. - Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - This month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report [37]. - Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme [37]. - Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage [39]. - Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens [39]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil [39]. - Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. Rapeseed Oil - The current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle [40]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumer demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; when the US restarts interest rate cuts, the medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown. There are various international events such as border conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potential supply of "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and the situation in the Middle East. Domestically, there are issues like government cabinet reshuffles and political events. Economically, the Fed has different stances on interest rate cuts, and the government "shutdown" continues with the Senate's repeated rejections of the temporary appropriation bill. The gold market is considered unsaturated with long - term macro - support factors remaining [8] Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 122,450 contracts, and the short - position is 35,978 contracts. The SPDR gold ETF holds 862 tons, and iShares holds 402 tons. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt is 3 tons, and the external - market inventory is 617 ounces. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [9] Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: The latest long - position management fund holding is 44,277 contracts, and the short - position is 27,801 contracts. The SLV silver ETF holds 13,802 tons. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, and the external - market inventory is 8,398 tons. There are also changes in positions over different time periods [14] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - There are data on the import gold and silver hedging profit margins over a period from 2024/7/15 to 2025/9/29 [21] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Trends Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions and total positions of the ICE dollar index futures and options over a period from 2025 - 02 - 25 to 2025 - 09 - 23 [23] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - There are data on the non - commercial net long positions of CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total positions of US Treasury bond futures over different time periods [26][27] US Inflation Expectation - There are data on the US inflation expectations (break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year) from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [30] US Real Interest Rate - There are data on the US Treasury real yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year on a monthly basis from 2005 - 11 to 2025 - 05 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - There are data on US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) [35] US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spreads - There are data on the yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from 2025 - 08 - 19 to 2025 - 10 - 16 [38]

锌产业周报 2025/10/17 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The possibility of a trend - weakening in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Factors - **Liduo Factors**: The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank's net injection supporting market liquidity. After the bond market became desensitized to the stock market, it generally rose. The marginal weakening of economic data and the continuation of supply - demand contradictions provide core support for the bond market [2] - **Likong Factors**: The issuance of 50 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds was poor, triggering market concerns. Strong overseas risk appetite put pressure on the bond market [2] 3.2 Market Data - **Yield**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [3] - **Funding Rate**: Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are presented [3] - **Term Spread**: Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented [4][5] - **Futures Position and Trading Volume**: Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [7][8] - **Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are presented [9][11][12][14] - **Futures Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [18][20] - **Futures Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) of treasury bond futures are presented [21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals include the suspension of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine due to an accident, exacerbating the shortage of copper mines, with negative processing fees (TC) and raw - material - constrained smelting capacity; the opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and a weaker US dollar, boosting copper prices with loose liquidity expectations; Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing market panic and suppressing risk appetite; and the decline in spot premiums, with downstream buyers being cautious due to high prices and weaker - than - expected post - holiday restocking [4]. - The view is that Shanghai copper will fluctuate at a high level, with both supply and demand being weak but having strong support. The shortage at the mine end and macro - level positives support the price, while trade risks and demand limit the upside. Short - term fluctuations will intensify [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Futures盘面Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 84,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.77%, a position of 215,573 lots (down 542 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 121,050 lots [6]. - The latest price of the Shanghai copper index - weighted is 84,341 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, a position of 546,240 lots (down 18,430 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 255,805 lots [6]. - The latest price of international copper is 74,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.85%, a position of 4,498 lots (down 311 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 8,239 lots [6]. - The latest price of LME copper for 3 months is 10,624 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%, a position of 239,014 lots (down 38,282 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 19,917 lots [6]. - The latest price of COMEX copper is 498.35 dollars, with a weekly decline of 3.04%, a position of 135,104 lots (down 8,882 lots week - on - week), and a trading volume of 41,836 lots [6]. b. Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 84,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,905 yuan and a decline rate of 2.2% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 84,835 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,840 yuan and a decline rate of 2.12% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 84,910 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,780 yuan and a decline rate of 2.05% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 84,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,830 yuan and a decline rate of 2.11% [11]. - The Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 175% [11]. - The Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 45 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 200% [11]. - The Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is 55 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1000% [11]. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is 115 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week, with a growth rate of 130% [11]. - The LME copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 11.16 dollars/ton, up 13.74 dollars week - on - week, with a decline rate of 55.18% [11]. - The LME copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 127.75 dollars/ton, up 33.58 dollars week - on - week, with a growth rate of 35.66% [11]. c. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 1,122.08 yuan/ton, up 44.79 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 3.84% [12]. - The copper concentrate TC is - 40.7 dollars/ton, with no change week - on - week [12]. - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0548, down 0.0566 week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.38% [12]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 2,995.96 yuan/ton, down 503.08 yuan week - on - week, with a decline rate of 14.38% [12]. d. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 42,849 tons, up 12,885 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 43% [17]. - The total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,518 tons, up 7,425 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 104.68% [17]. - The Shanghai copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.5% [17]. - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 129,900 tons, down 1,150 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 0.88% [17]. - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 7,550 tons, down 875 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 10.39% [20]. - The LME copper inventory is 137,450 tons, down 2,025 tons week - on - week, with a decline rate of 1.45% [20]. - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 153,604 tons, up 1,167 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.77% [20]. - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 191,048 tons, up 5,326 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.87% [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory is 344,652 tons, up 6,493 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.92% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 50.9 million tons, up 2.9 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 6.04% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 1.04% [20]. e. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the cumulative production was 9.891 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative production was 16.598 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. f. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 65.23%, up 2.21 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.85 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 25.37%, up 0.56 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.53 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper plates and strips was 66.24%, up 1.52 percentage points month - on - month and down 6.95 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 50.9%, up 1.04 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.52 percentage points year - on - year [25]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 59.44%, down 3.11 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.58 percentage points year - on - year [25]. g. Copper Element Import (Monthly) - In September 2025, the import of copper concentrates was 2.586873 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 22.663614 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of anode copper was 61,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 18%, and the cumulative import was 528,637 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the cumulative import was 2,206,092 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the import of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In September 2025, the import of copper products was 485,105.381 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative import was 4,018,617.9 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29].