Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Brazilian port congestion has reduced exports, and uneven rainfall in India threatens sugarcane yield. The news of Coca - Cola North America switching to sucrose has stimulated a rebound in raw sugar, but 350,000 tons of domestic imports have suppressed the domestic market, and the gradual listing of processed sugar has increased supply pressure [3]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventories, with strong short - term performance due to capital inflows. However, the accumulation of downstream finished - product inventory during the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream is in the off - season, with light trading. Sufficient supply of old dates and potential repair of the expected production reduction in the production area may lead to weak and volatile prices. Monitor temperature changes and new jujube fruit setting [22]. - **Apples**: Seasonal fruits impact sales, and packaging is limited in Shandong due to the busy farming season. New - season early - maturing apples have the same opening prices as last year, with limited market impact due to low supply [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, SR01 closed at 5656 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning and various sugar futures contracts and between Kunming and various sugar futures contracts showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025 [11]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices had different daily and weekly changes. The profit of Brazilian sugar on the futures market also showed seasonal characteristics [14][15]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13965 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 35 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 5 yuan, and other spreads also showed different changes [18]. Red Dates - **Market Outlook**: The current downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to temperature changes and new jujube fruit - setting [22]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, AP01 closed at 7751 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64%. Spot prices of different apple varieties remained unchanged [27]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The AP01 - 05 spread was - 45 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 4.65%. The disk profit was - 878 yuan with a daily increase of 5.66% [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Report Date - The report was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures broke through the annual line resistance of 4,250 ringgit after a brief consolidation and are expected to rise further to the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range. After a short - term resistance, it may retrace to 4,200 ringgit. If it effectively retraces and stabilizes at 4,200 ringgit, there is still a chance to strengthen again. The upward trend remains good, and the view is mainly bullish with fluctuations [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures continued to rise due to the boost from the Malaysian market. The price is approaching 9,000 yuan and may briefly break through 9,000 yuan and even reach 9,100 yuan. It will then fluctuate around 9,000 yuan. If it effectively stands above 9,000 yuan, there is still room for further upward movement. The current strong characteristics are obvious, with a bullish view but attention should be paid to the fluctuation rhythm and whether it can break through and stand above 9,000 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - The downstream demand for soybean oil is weak despite the rising futures price. Some traders offer fixed - price quotes, which drags down the basis quotes. In the short term, the futures still have some upward space, which will continue to affect the spot basis quotes. However, starting from August, market demand is expected to pick up, and with the expected reduction in soybean supply in the fourth quarter, the forward basis quotes will be supported [4]. Bean Meal - In addition to the influence of US soybeans, foreign capital seats such as Qiankun and Morgan significantly reduced short positions and increased long positions, with a net position shift from short to long and a daily position transfer of up to 52,000 lots. China's slow procurement progress in the fourth quarter also provides support. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure area of 3,050 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price of oil mills increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and some terminal buyers' wait - and - see attitude has loosened, with local transactions potentially increasing. However, due to the current ample supply, traders are mainly selling actively [16] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: The prices of palm oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,776 yuan/ton, 8,548 yuan/ton, and 8,796 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.83%, 0.68%, and 0.85%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,292 ringgit/ton, up 1.95%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,118 yuan/ton, 7,734 yuan/ton, and 8,160 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 56.15 cents/pound, up 2.71%. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes and percentage changes [5] Meal Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The prices of bean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3,078, 2,744, and 3,056 respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2,394, 2,352, and 2,722 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 0.51%, and 0.11% [17]. - **Meal Spreads**: Information on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. is provided, along with the prices of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and their basis quotes [20] Other Information - The report provides price and spread data for various oil and meal products, including palm oil, soybean oil, bean meal, and rapeseed meal, as well as information on international soybean and rapeseed crushing profits sourced from Wind [5][7][12][17][20][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,200 ringgit, facing downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, and are expected to decline towards 4,000 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level oscillatory adjustment, likely to weaken and test the 8,500 yuan support level. If it stabilizes above 8,500 yuan, there may be a short - term rebound, but the future trend depends on Malaysian palm oil [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Many factories are experiencing severe inventory overstock, causing traders to lower basis quotes. However, the basis of forward contracts is supported as there have been no recent US soybean purchases in the domestic market, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is uncertain. Currently, soybean oil has a price advantage among the three major domestic oils, and the basis quotes are expected to rebound after the inventory overstock issue is resolved [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Despite the pressure on spot supply, high Brazilian premiums and the lag in fourth - quarter ship purchases have led some institutions to turn to far - month contracts. Before the Sino - US negotiations next month, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal faces resistance at the 3,000 yuan integer mark. The spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose due to abundant imported soybeans from May to July and accumulated oil - mill inventories [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,692 yuan/ton, 8,472 yuan/ton, and 8,708 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.3%, - 0.24%, and - 0.46%. BMD palm oil futures rose 0.96% to 4,186 ringgit/ton. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,000 yuan/ton, 7,654 yuan/ton, and 8,042 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.13%, - 0.07%, and - 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures rose 0.76% to 54.36 cents/pound. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 88 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [13]. - **Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, with different price changes and percentage changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is 226 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 758 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Oilseed Futures Price**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) are 3,011, 2,700, and 2,977 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 2, and - 1. Futures prices of rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) are 2,309, 2,300, and 2,653 respectively, with daily changes of - 3, - 1, and - 2. CBOT soybeans closed at 1,002.5, unchanged [18]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spreads such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are provided, with different price changes. For example, M01 - 05 is 313, down 5; RM01 - 05 is 11, up 13 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The higher-than-expected US CPI in June weakens the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The easing of Sino-US negotiations and the optimistic trade sentiment in some countries reduce the safe-haven demand, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, which is supported by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in the long term. The US dollar trend and subsequent economic data are the key disturbances [3]. - Copper: Trump's move to impose tariffs on copper has both explicit and implicit reasons. In the short term, copper prices may still be mainly volatile [15]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The tariffs imposed by Trump may suppress metals. The upside space of Shanghai aluminum is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to be bearish in the medium and long term. Alumina has an expected supply surplus, and there is still a short - term risk of a squeeze, but the upward momentum is weakening. The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported, but the demand is weak [34][35]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the traditional off - season. In the short term, focus on macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Tin: Tin prices are still in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Analysis**: The US 6 - month CPI weakens the interest - rate - cut expectation this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The safe - haven demand is reduced, but there is still an expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, and the US dollar trend and economic data are key factors [3]. - **Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, ratios, and spreads are presented, such as SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [4][10][12]. Copper - **Price and Market Analysis**: Trump's tariff on copper is based on the 232 clause of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and aims to support the return of the US manufacturing industry. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [15]. - **Data**: Copper futures and spot data are provided, including the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures, as well as spot prices, premiums, import profits and losses, and warehouse receipts [16][23][27]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to accumulate. Trump's tariffs may suppress metals. Alumina has a supply surplus expectation, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34][35]. - **Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [36][43][46]. Zinc - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply side is transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the off - season. Focus on macro data and supply - side disturbances in the short term [62]. - **Data**: Zinc futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [63][68][71]. Nickel - **Price and Market Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - **Data**: Nickel futures and related data are presented, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts, as well as data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86]. Tin - **Price and Market Analysis**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - **Data**: Tin futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [93][98][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Analysis**: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - **Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [109][112][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. - **Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related data are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data [118][120][141].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Tuesday but remained near a four - year low. Zheng sugar is under short - term pressure and fluctuating [3]. - **Cotton**: The current low inventory of domestic cotton still strongly supports cotton prices. However, due to weak demand in the off - season and inventory pressure on finished products, the upside of cotton prices is limited. In the short term, Zheng cotton may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of import quota policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream market is in the off - season of consumption, with a relatively light trading atmosphere. The supply of old dates is sufficient. As the jujube fruit grows, the expected reduction in production in the production area may be revised. Red date prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent temperature changes and the fruit - setting situation of new jujubes [22]. - **Apples**: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the small supply, the impact on the market is limited [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11, SB, W) and price spreads between different contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) [4]. - **Sugar Basis**: Presented the basis of sugar in Nanning and Kunming for different contracts, along with daily and weekly changes [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: Showed the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, and the price differences between different domestic locations and imported sugar, with daily and weekly changes [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily price changes, and price change rates of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts (cotton 01 - 09, cotton yarn 01 - 09) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Presented various price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn, including basis, inter - month spreads, and spreads between cotton and yarn, along with daily price changes [18]. Red Dates - **Futures Month Spreads**: Showed the month spreads of red date futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [23]. - **Price Trends**: Provided price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade gray dates in main sales areas [25]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price change rates of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.), and spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions, along with daily and weekly price change rates [27]. - **Inventory**: Showed the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, in Shaanxi, and in Shandong [31][32].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated July 14, 2025, covering sugar, cotton,红枣 (Chinese dates), and apples [1] Sugar Core View - ICE raw sugar futures climbed nearly 2% on Friday, unaffected by Trump's tariff on Brazil. Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise, with short - term sugar prices strengthening [3] Price and Spread - SR01 closed at 5639 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.73%. Other contracts also showed various price changes and spreads [4] - Sugar basis: For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 431 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, with a daily increase of 13 yuan and a weekly decrease of 31 yuan [12] - Sugar import prices: On July 14, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4410 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 69 yuan and a weekly increase of 92 yuan. The out - of - quota price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 90 yuan and a weekly increase of 120 yuan [15] Cotton Core View - The current low inventory of domestic cotton supports cotton prices, but the inventory pressure of finished products due to off - season demand restricts the upside. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the implementation of import quota policies and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [17] Price and Spread - Cotton 01 closed at 13815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% on the day. Cotton 09 closed at 13875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% on the day [18] - Cotton basis was 1381 yuan, unchanged on the day. The difference between cotton 01 - 05 was 20 yuan, unchanged on the day [19] Chinese Dates (Jujubes) Core View - The downstream is in the off - season, with light trading. The supply of old dates is sufficient. As the key fruit - setting period approaches, the market focuses on new - season jujubes. Currently, grey jujubes are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting of new jujubes, and there may be weather speculation. However, the high inventory of old dates may suppress the market [22] Apples Core View - Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the packaging quantity is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties are the same as last year, and the impact on the market is limited due to the small supply [27] Price and Spread - AP01 closed at 7689 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly increase of 0.64%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.95 yuan/jin, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 4% [28]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The fuel oil market is characterized by weak supply and demand, combined with cost - side fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the peak power generation season, but inventory pressure restrains its upward movement. In the short term, it will fluctuate within a range following crude oil [4]. Fundamental Information High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The peak power generation season in the Middle East and South Asia has begun. Saudi Arabia's high - sulfur imports increased by 430,000 tons month - on - month, and Egypt's monthly imports reached 600,000 tons, boosting high - sulfur demand [3]. - The number of ships with desulfurization towers continues to increase. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering has risen to 39%, and the sales volume of high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore increased by 8.3% year - on - year [3]. - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels (+5.68%) week - on - week, and the inventory in Fujairah increased by 1.308 million barrels (+14.62%), highlighting supply pressure [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur marine fuel faces substitution from high - sulfur fuel and competition from diesel. The low - sulfur bunkering volume in Singapore decreased by 4.7% month - on - month. In the power generation sector, its economic efficiency is lower than that of natural gas [3]. Price and Spread Information Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 10 | 2025 - 07 - 04 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 502.32 | 492.11 | 492.08 | 10.21 | 10.24 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 467.45 | 458.7 | 457.38 | 8.75 | 10.07 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 75.88 | 75.39 | 75.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3640 | 3678 | 3636 | - 38 | 4 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 5.2517 | 20.1177 | 15.5002 | - 14.866 | - 10.2485 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 31.97 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 1.77 | - 0.73 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 10.63 | 10.58 | 11.03 | 0.05 | - 0.4 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 5.43 | 5.42 | 5.93 | 0.01 | - 0.5 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.88 | 7.87 | 8.51 | 0.01 | - 0.63 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 4.6 | 4.79 | 6.4 | - 0.19 | - 1.8 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 7.5 | 8 | 8.19 | - 0.5 | - 0.69 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.9685 | 4.826 | 4.5085 | - 2.8575 | - 2.54 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 4.0454 | 4.181 | 3.0703 | - 0.1356 | 0.9751 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 85.07 | 85.09 | 81.24 | - 0.02 | 3.83 | [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 418.73 | 418.88 | 424.82 | - 0.15 | - 6.09 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 421.88 | 422.34 | 419.32 | - 0.46 | 2.56 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 63.34 | 63.45 | 62.89 | - 0.11 | 0.45 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2907 | 2873 | 2906 | 34 | 1 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 1.65 | 3.87 | 3.88 | - 2.22 | - 2.23 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 9.61 | 10.37 | 8.63 | - 0.76 | 0.98 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.9535 | 9.906 | 8.3185 | - 0.9525 | 0.635 | | FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton) | - 4.8823 | - 4.3203 | - 4.6055 | - 0.562 | - 0.2768 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 87.78 | 88.04 | 80.48 | - 0.26 | 7.3 | | Rotterdam High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 54.61 | 54.67 | 58.74 | - 0.06 | - 4.13 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 77.7875 | 84.1375 | 91.7575 | - 6.35 | - 13.97 | | China High - Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High - Sulfur M + 1 | - 13.3804 | - 2.3882 | - 10.1768 | - 10.9922 | - 3.2036 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel) | - 2.97 | - 2.18 | - 1.54 | - 0.79 | - 1.43 | [26][28]