Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation. Due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month, there is pressure for the futures to fall below 4,500 ringgit and further weaken, with an expected test of the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range for support. After a short - term stabilization, there is a chance to rebound to 4,500 ringgit. In the long term, affected by seasonal production growth and the expected significant inventory increase from August to September, the futures price may decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level volatile consolidation. After breaking below the 9,500 yuan support, there is pressure for further weakening, with an expected test of the 9,200 yuan platform for support, and strong support at around 9,000 yuan. After the current adjustment, there is a possibility of the futures strengthening again. The long - term upward trend remains good, and it is currently considered a Wave 4 adjustment [3]. Soybean Oil - International crude oil decline due to expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about potential changes in the US biodiesel policy have dragged down the vegetable oil market. The expected high yield of US soybeans has also affected domestic oils. In the domestic market, the current downstream demand is not strong, but due to expected increased domestic demand and potential price increases of palm oil during the Indian Diwali festival, the Dalian soybean oil futures may rise after the adjustment, with support for the January contract at around 8,300 yuan [4]. Soybean Meal - The slowdown in the decline of South American soybean premiums and institutional oil - meal arbitrage adjustments support soybean meal. Institutions such as Qiankun and Morgan have increased their long positions by over 10,000 lots, making the short - term trend of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal firm, oscillating around 3,150 yuan. The spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. Feed mills' physical inventories can generally last until the end of September, and the slow purchase progress for December - January shipments leads to a consistent bullish expectation for the long - term soybean meal price. The short - term spot price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 308 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 256 | - 6 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 52 | - 2 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 320 | - 62 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 348 | 66 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 28 | - 4 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 151 | 5 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 199 | - 27 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 48 | 22 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 1114 | - 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1126 | 24 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 1034 | - 48 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6972 | - 0.07% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8854 | 0.99% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7478 | - 0.35% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7826 | - 0.3% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8719 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.696 | 0.84% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9554 | - 0.89% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9248 | - 0.9% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 9486 | - 1.06% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | ringgit/ton | 4496 | - 0.55% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 9440 | - 220 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | 20 | 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 546.91 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 49.6 | 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8414 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8124 | 0.56% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8442 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | cents/pound | 51.84 | - 2.72% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8430 | - 200 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 104 | - 10 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 55.602 | - 10.9904 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 900 | - 150 | [13] Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3160 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2860 | 16 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3116 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2627 | 23 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2517 | 12 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2667 | - 11 | - 0.41% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1033.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1865 | 0 | 0% | [18] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 300 | - 17 | RM01 - 05 | 110 | 11 | | M05 - 09 | - 256 | 13 | RM05 - 09 | - 150 | 23 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 4 | RM09 - 01 | 40 | - 34 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | - 30 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 140 | - 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2550 | - 7 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 54 | - 21 | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 470 | - 30 | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 533 | - 24 | [19][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a game between cost support and export restrictions. Lacking a breakthrough driver, it is expected to continue range - bound trading [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental and Views - **Supply - related**: Device overhauls increased, weekly production decreased by 26,000 tons compared to the previous week, and factory inventory decreased to 888,000 tons, slightly alleviating supply pressure [4]. - **Cost - related**: Coal prices stabilized and rose slightly. Coupled with the potential impact of the old - device inspection policy, the cost line of the fixed - bed process supported the price [4]. - **Demand - related**: In August, it is the gap period between the end of top - dressing and autumn fertilizer preparation. Agricultural demand support is limited, and the compound fertilizer operation rate is only 41.5%. Industrial demand is weak [4]. - **Export - related**: The second quota is unclear, and the international price is lower than the domestic price limit (440 - 445 US dollars/ton), hindering actual export orders [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: There are data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and compound fertilizer inventory [7][8][38]. - **Futures**: Data on the position volume, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are presented [10][12][13][15]. - **Price**: There are data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, and the seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [17][18][20][21][23][25][27]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification processes, as well as the production cost, profit, and production cost in Shandong of compound fertilizer are provided [28][30][31][32][40][46]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: There are data on the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, urea capacity utilization rate, total daily urea production, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and power coal port inventory [33][35][37][38][47]. - **International Price**: Data on the FOB prices of small - sized urea in China and the Middle East are presented [42][43]. - **Power Coal**: Data on the spot price of power coal are provided [44].

Report Summary Core View - The northern market is weak with increased supply from enhanced selling intentions of放养 companies and retail farmers, while some leading enterprises cut supply to slow down price drops; the southern market is stable with some areas seeing slight price increases, and currently there is a lack of obvious positive support in the market [2] Data and Indicators - **Price and Quantity**: The report presents data on China's average hog slaughter price, hog warehouse receipt quantity, comparison between national and Henan hog prices, and average hog slaughter weight [3][4] - **Inventory**: It includes data on the number of fertile sows, hog inventory structure, PSY production index of fertile sows, and frozen pork storage capacity ratio [4][5][7] - **Profit**: Data on the average price of culled sows, profit from purchasing and self - raising hogs, slaughter gross profit, and the average price of piglets are provided [7][9][10][13] - **Slaughter**: Information on the slaughter volume of key enterprises and their开工率 is shown [6][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The previously opened window for out - of - quota import profit is expected to increase imports, suppressing the rebound of the 09 contract. The main funds flowed into the 01 contract, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to shrink due to the domestic production cut expectation. In the overseas market, due to the ongoing production cut in Brazil, the global supply is tight in the short term, providing strong support for the external market price, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand prevents the raw sugar price from rising unilaterally. In the short term, the SR2509 contract is weak, the SR2601 contract is strong, and there is a possibility that the 9 - 1 spread will continue to narrow [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6010 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it was 5780 - 5940 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase [3]. - **International Market**: In the first week of August, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data showed that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [4][9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 18, 2025, the closing prices of SR01, SR03, SR05, SR07, SR09, and SR11 were 5664, 5640, 5622, 5616, 5740, and 5667 respectively, all with a 0% change. The spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc. are also provided [6]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, etc. and their price differences are presented. For example, the price in Nanning was 5960 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis and Import Price Change - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their changes are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 316, a 61 - yuan decrease [7][10]. - **Import Price Change**: The quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are shown. For example, the quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan increase [10].

Core Viewpoints - PDH unit profits are continuously recovering, the operating load is rising, and the chemical demand for propane provides short - term support for prices [2] - The external release volume of domestic refineries decreases seasonally, and the recovery pace of arrivals is slow, so the supply of domestic gas tends to be stable [2] - Propane inventories in North America are higher than the same period last year, entering the inventory accumulation cycle, and combined with increased sales in the Middle East, it suppresses the international market [2] - The peak combustion season is approaching the end, the terminal demand is weakly declining, and the spot price continues to decline slightly [2] - LPG maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. Overseas inventory accumulation and seasonal weakening of demand suppress the market, but the recovery of PDH demand provides bottom - line support, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Data Indicators (Showing Multiple Data Trends) - Propane Far - East CIF price FEI: M1 settlement price (daily), FEI and Brent ratio (daily) seasonality, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/Brent ratio and PDH profit [4] - FEI/MOPJ spread (daily) seasonality, propane Far - East CIF price FEI M1 - M2 (daily) seasonality [8] - FEI discount, Middle - East FOB discount (daily) [9][10] - Propane US FOB price: M1 settlement price (daily), MB and WTI ratio (daily) seasonality [11] - CP M1 - MB M1 [12] - VLGC freight [14] - US propane weekly production, propane imports from the US (weekly) seasonality, propane inventory in the US (weekly) seasonality, propane exports from the US (weekly) seasonality [16][18][19]

Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly - Styrene - Report Date: August 18, 2025 - Researcher: Lan Xue [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - This week, the macro sentiment cooled down, and styrene weakened and pulled back synchronously. The cost-side crude oil rose continuously, but negative news in the oil market was continuously released, causing international oil prices to fall continuously. Meanwhile, the inventory at East China ports remained high. The fundamentals of styrene remained weak, and new plants were expected to be put into operation in August, with the supply-demand trend expected to be loose [6] 3. Summary by Directory Supply - EB production enterprise operating rate was 78.18%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.45%; EB weekly output was 369,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.76% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of the three major downstream industries was 60.37%, with a month-on-month increase of 7.32%; the weighted inventory of the three major downstream industries was 86,800 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.97% [9] Inventory - This week, the EB inventory at East China factories was 208,700 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.30%; the inventory at East China ports was 148,800 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.42% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific content other than data charts was provided Price and Profit - This week, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.57% month-on-month to 6,100 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene decreased by 0.88% month-on-month to 7,280 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 40; the (10 - 11) spread was -22 [9]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - This week, the supply change was flat, and downstream industries had a phased restocking. By the end of the month, enterprise inventories decreased rapidly due to assessment plans, but social inventories increased due to imported arrivals. Overall, supply and demand remained loose [6] Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate was 84.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%; PE weekly output was 661,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries decreased seasonally, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory was 444,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.76%; social inventory was 568,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific data provided in the summary part Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.29% month-on-month to 7,392 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.38% month-on-month to 7,351 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 41; the (9 - 1) spread was -45 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - USDA's reduction of the US soybean area has led to a decline in production, potentially causing a contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. The expected US soybean inventory may decrease. [5] - The domestic spot price of Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and stabilized. As the US soybean strengthens, the import cost has increased, and the domestic short - term price has slightly strengthened. Later, attention should be paid to domestic imports. Insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment may lead to a decline in inventory later. [5] - Affected by the domestic pig "anti - involution" policy (weakening soybean meal demand) and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises (strengthening supply), the uncertainty of the results of China - US trade consultations may cause significant fluctuations. China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in later imports. [5] - In the spot market, affected by the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume. The overall domestic inventory is low, and the market is worried about future supply contraction. It is regarded as bullish in the medium term. [5] - International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor progress in China - US negotiations, and the weakening of crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, the oil mills have a large inventory pressure of soybean oil, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil may be negative for oils and fats. [38] - In the current rapeseed sector, there is a lack of new themes, the inventory depletion is slow during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decline in rapeseed oil supply. [40] - The Indonesian B50 plan has been delayed, which may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. The inventory accumulation in the MPOB report is less than expected, and the overseas palm oil supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory accumulation has not ended. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by the decline in crude oil, which is short - term negative for oils and fats. Domestically, the inventory is high, accumulating month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation is weakening. The increase in import cost drives the price. If the overseas market weakens, the domestic market is expected to follow the decline. [46] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal and Related - **US Soybean**: USDA has reduced the US soybean area, leading to a decline in production and a potential contraction in global supply in the fourth quarter. The US soybean is about to enter the harvest period, and the inventory is expected to decrease. [5] - **Dalian Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. With the strengthening of the US soybean, the import cost has increased, and the short - term price has slightly strengthened. There may be a decline in inventory later due to insufficient vessel bookings for the October shipment. [5] - **Domestic Factors Affecting Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" policy for pigs and the procurement of Argentine soybean meal by leading enterprises, along with the uncertainty of China - US trade consultations, may cause price fluctuations. [5] Rapeseed Meal and Related - **Spot Market**: Affected by anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed meal has a price but no volume, with low inventory and concerns about future supply contraction. It is bullish in the medium term. [5] Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - **Futures and Market**: International factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, poor China - US negotiations, and weak crude oil may lead to a weakening of the biodiesel expectation. Domestically, oil mills have large inventory pressure, and the demand for biodiesel is variable. The decline in crude oil is negative for soybean oil. [38] - **Spot Market**: This week's procurement was light, and the average daily factory sales decreased week - on - week. After August, due to the support of procurement costs, the basis is difficult to adjust easily. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans have arrived at ports, there is uncertainty in China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. [38] Palm Oil - **International and Domestic Situation**: The Indonesian B50 plan delay may weaken the biodiesel expectation. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is less than expected, and overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Overseas biodiesel may be weakened by crude oil decline, which is short - term negative for palm oil. Domestically, inventory is high and accumulating, and supply - demand is weakening. Higher import costs drive prices, and if overseas weakens, domestic may follow. [46] Rapeseed Oil - **Market Situation**: There is a lack of new themes in the rapeseed sector, slow inventory depletion during the off - season of demand, and the futures price is under pressure. However, anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply. In the spot market, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, terminal acceptance is low, and transactions are weak in many places, with the basis continuing to decline slightly. [40][41]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Rising new energy demand, increased demand from some downstream precursor factories, and relatively stable transactions [3] - Macro support: Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, a decline in the US dollar, and the release of domestic liquidity boosting demand expectations [3] Bearish Factors - High nickel ore inventory, an obvious situation of strong supply and weak demand, and a loosening of the bottom support [3] - Increasing supply from Indonesia and weak demand in the stainless steel and new energy sectors [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Support at the lower end of the nickel range, with futures prices oscillating strongly [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 121,200 yuan/ton, down 930 yuan (-0.76%) from the previous week [4] - The trading volume was 102,257 lots, down 10,292 lots (-9.14%) from the previous week [4] - The open interest was 66,437 lots, down 10,756 lots (-13.9%) from the previous week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 13,025 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-2%) from the previous week [4] - The trading volume was 160,562 lots, down 42,051 lots (-20.75%) from the previous week [4] - The open interest was 135,237 lots, down 23 lots (-0.02%) from the previous week [4] Spot Prices - The price of Jinchuan nickel was 124,400 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan (-0.32%) from the previous day [4] - The price of imported nickel was 122,700 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory was 40,572 tons, an increase of 1,086 tons from the previous period [4] - LME nickel inventory was 211,140 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous period [6] - Stainless steel social inventory was 954 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons from the previous period [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons from the previous period [6] Other Information - The report includes various charts and data on nickel and stainless steel, such as historical prices, production, and inventory [8][10][12]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Date: August 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Low inventory levels in domestic and international futures exchanges and high concentration of warehouse receipts support zinc prices [3]. - Tightening supply of imported zinc ore restricts raw materials for smelters, causing disruptions on the supply side [3]. Bearish Factors - New zinc ingot production capacity is being released in China, leading to a continuous increase in supply and an oversupply situation in the fundamentals [3]. - Downstream consumption is in the traditional off - season, with a decline in terminal开工 and insufficient orders resulting in cautious procurement for essential needs [3]. Trading Advice - It is recommended to adopt a phased range - trading strategy for Shanghai zinc futures [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net exports of galvanized steel coils, as well as net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, and indicators related to the real estate and infrastructure sectors [5][7][10][15] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, TC (treatment charges), monthly production of zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and inventory in exchanges are provided [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the price trends of domestic and international zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, and basis trends are presented [27][28][29]