Group 1: Core Views on Oils - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 increased by 5.5% - 7.5% month - on - month, and June exports surged 35% year - on - year to 1.85 million tons. However, domestic July crude palm oil inventory remained at 2.05 million tons, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase. Attention should be paid to export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show an intensified internal - external divergence. The US Clean Energy Spending Act is expected to increase annual soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons, supporting the CBOT soybean oil. But in China, July's first - half imported soybean arrivals were about 4.5 million tons (9 million tons expected for the whole month), and soybean oil commercial inventory reached about 1.05 million tons as of July 15, increasing by 40,000 tons weekly. Key variables are US policy implementation progress and North American soybean - growing area weather [3]. - Rapeseed oil fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventory and weak consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory is above 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of over 85%. Downstream dealer purchases decreased by 15% month - on - month. Policy support is limited, and long - term supply contraction expectations have not materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [4]. Group 2: Oils Price and Spread - The table shows the month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [5]. - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices are presented, including prices of palm oil 01, 05, 09, BMD palm oil, etc., along with their changes [8]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices are provided, including prices of soybean oil 01, 05, 09, CBOT soybean oil, etc., and their changes [13]. Group 3: Oilseeds Situation - For imported soybeans, due to the appreciation of the Brazilian exchange rate and the weakening of the US soybean market, Brazilian premium quotes are rising, and there is a lack of effective buying profit in the fourth - quarter buying cycle. July arrivals are 11.5 million tons, August 11 million tons, and September 10 million tons. The fourth - quarter supply gap depends on Sino - US relations [17]. - For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure suppresses the spot price. With sufficient soybean raw materials, oil mill operating rates are rising, and supply exceeds demand. Demand - side physical inventory is mainly in middle - stream traders, so the basis spot price is expected to be under pressure [17]. - For rapeseed meal, inventory reduction is slow, and downstream addition ratios lack cost - effectiveness. Market reaction to Sino - Canadian meeting news is lackluster, and its market trend follows soybean meal, with a weak outlook [17]. Group 4: Oilseeds Futures Price and Spread - The table shows the closing prices, daily changes, and change rates of oilseed futures, including soybean meal 01, 05, 09 and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 [18]. - The table presents the spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc., along with their prices and daily changes [21].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 能源化工周报—PVC 2025年7月11日 研究员：兰雪 交易咨询：Z0018543 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 http://www.eafutures .com 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 目录 1 供给 2 需求 3 库存、价差 4 价格、成本、利润 基本面要点： 东亚期货 3 • 价格：PVC周度均价：电石法 元/吨，环比 ，乙烯法 元/吨，环比 %。 4890 1.88% 5050 1 • 供给：PVC生产企业开工率 %，环比 %，同比 % ,其中电石法 %，环比 %，同比 %；乙烯法 %，环 比 %，同比 %。PVC产量 万吨，环比 %，同比 %。 76.97 -0.61 8.04 79.21 -1.97 5.74 71.02 3.62 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Products Weekly - Crude Oil [2] - Researcher: Liu Chenrui [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Absolute low inventory and peak season support the downside of oil prices. There is a consensus on the weakening of the medium - term fundamentals, but it is necessary to observe the actual production increase of OPEC and guard against the time point of the outbreak of US trade negotiation risks [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Financial Data - **Crude Oil Price**: The report presents the price trends of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil over a long - term period, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [11][12]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: It shows the historical data of WTI futures and options management fund positions, including long, short, and net positions, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [13][14][15]. 2. Supply - **US Crude Oil Supply**: US production is 1338.5 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.36% and a同比 change of 0.64%. The net import volume of US crude oil is 325.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 29.43% and a同比 change of 17.93%. The report also shows the trends of US domestic crude oil production, net import volume, and rig platform numbers [8][18][19]. - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq from 2021 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Non - OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of Russia, Canada, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [23][24]. 3. Demand - **US Petroleum Demand**: US refinery processing volume is 1700.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.58% and a同比 change of - 0.60%. The US refinery operating rate is 94.7%, with a环比 change of - 0.2 pts and a同比 change of - 0.7 pts. The report also shows the seasonal trends of US refinery operating rate, crude oil processing volume, gasoline and diesel apparent demand [8][28][29]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance Seasonality**: It shows the seasonal trends of global, North American, and Northwest European CDU maintenance volumes [31][32][34]. - **Domestic Crude Oil Demand**: It shows the seasonal trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, daily processing volume, and the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [35][36]. 4. Inventory - **Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: The July EIA monthly report shows that the annual inventory accumulation rate in 2025 is 107 barrels per day, and provides the supply - demand data for each quarter of 2025 [40]. - **US Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of various US petroleum inventories, including total inventory, refined oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventory [42][44][45]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories [48][49][51]. - **China's Crude Oil Inventory and Global Floating Storage**: It shows the trends of INE crude oil inventory, global crude oil floating storage, global water - borne crude oil, and global in - transit crude oil [52][53]. - **Other Regions' Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of ARA European crude oil inventory, Northwest European refined oil inventory, and Singapore refined oil inventory [54][55]. 5. Spreads and Premiums - **Global Regional Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of crack spreads in the US Gulf, DTD trans - Atlantic, Dubai, and Minas [59][60]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of RBOB - WTI, HO - WTI, Gasoline - Dubai (SING), and Gasoil - Dubai (SING) [62][63]. - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI and Brent futures [64][65]. - **Regional Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI - Brent, SC - Brent, EFS, and SC - WTI [66][67]. - **Freight Rates**: It shows the freight rates from the Arabian Gulf to Ningbo, China, and from Arabia to Singapore and the Arabian Gulf to Japan [68][69]. - **Saudi OSP**: It shows the OSPs of Saudi medium, heavy, and light crude oils exported to different regions [70][71]. - **Different Oil Grade Premiums**: It shows the premiums of Midland WTI, WCS - WTI, and Urals - Dated Brent [73][74][75].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventories. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 increased by 5.1% - 5.5% MoM, and Indonesia's low - price palm oil continues to attract Asian buyers. However, domestic palm oil inventory reached 251.2 million tons as of July 10, suppressing price increases. Monitor Malaysia's export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show a growing divergence between international and domestic markets. The US House passed the Clean Energy Spending Act, which may increase soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons if implemented. But in China, high supply from large soybean arrivals and high - level crushing, along with low consumption in summer, limit price increases. Key factors are US policy implementation and North American weather [4]. - Rapeseed oil maintains a pattern of high inventory and low consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East - China rapeseed oil inventory is above 65 million tons, and consumption is weak. Policy support from import tariffs has limited impact. Monitor inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [5]. - For imported soybeans, third - quarter supply is abundant, with 11.5 million tons arriving in July, 11 million tons in August, and 9.5 million tons in September. In the fourth quarter, the supply gap depends on Sino - US relations. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure suppresses the spot market, and rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak outlook [16]. Group 2: Oil Futures Price Information Palm Oil - Palm oil 01: 8648 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; Palm oil 05: 8438 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; Palm oil 09: 8682 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; BMD palm oil主力: 4137 ringgit/ton, down 0.22% [8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01: 7966 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Soybean oil 05: 7626 yuan/ton, unchanged; Soybean oil 09: 7986 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; CBOT soybean oil主力: 53.49 cents/pound, up 0.41% [12]. Oil Spreads - P 1 - 5: 196 yuan/ton, down 20; Y - P 01: - 694 yuan/ton, up 36; etc. [6]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price Information Soybean Meal - Soybean meal 01: 3015, up 22 (0.74%); Soybean meal 05: 2704, unchanged; Soybean meal 09: 2976, up 22 (0.74%) [17]. Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal 01: 2323, up 7 (0.3%); Rapeseed meal 05: 2311, up 2 (0.09%); Rapeseed meal 09: 2633, up 22 (0.84%) [17]. Spreads and Basis - M01 - 05: 311, up 22; RM01 - 05: 12, up 5; etc. [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the international sugar market, ICE raw sugar futures declined on Thursday, with the bulls and bears in a stalemate. The short - term support for Zhengzhou sugar is significant, and its trend has slightly strengthened [3]. - This year, domestic cotton has been de - stocking rapidly. Low inventory supports cotton prices, and the valuation of cotton prices has been repaired. However, negative feedback from downstream consumption is gradually accumulating, and the pressure of finished product inventory is emerging. Cotton prices are under pressure at the upper level and may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 14,000 - yuan mark and whether the quota policy can be implemented and further adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16]. - Currently, the downstream of the jujube market is in the off - season of consumption, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The supply of old jujubes is sufficient. As the critical fruit - setting period approaches, the market focus is gradually shifting to new - season jujubes. Early July is the physiological fruit - dropping stage of grey jujubes. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation of new jujubes, and there may still be weather - related speculation. However, the high inventory of old jujubes may suppress the futures market. If the price center moves up, jujube warehouse receipts may be registered more quickly, putting pressure on jujube prices [21]. - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. Affected by the busy farming season in Shandong, the packaging volume is limited. Shaanxi's apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary producing areas have basically cleared their inventories. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the relatively small supply, their impact on the market is limited [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11, SB, W) are presented. For example, SR01 closed at 5629 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.55% [4]. - **Sugar Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11) on July 10, 2025, along with their daily and weekly changes, are provided. For instance, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 418 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 16 yuan and a weekly decline of 66 yuan [11]. - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar on July 11, 2025, and their daily and weekly changes are given. For example, the quota - in import price of Brazilian sugar was 4457 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 30 yuan and a weekly increase of 161 yuan [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily price changes and price change percentages of cotton (01, 05, 09) and cotton yarn (01, 05, 09) futures contracts are shown. For example, the closing price of cotton 01 was 13820 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10 yuan and a price increase of 0.07% [17]. - **Price Spreads**: The prices and daily changes of various cotton and cotton - yarn price spreads (cotton basis, cotton 01 - 05, etc.) are provided. For example, the cotton basis was 1381 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan [18]. Jujube - **Futures Month - spreads**: The price spreads between different jujube futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) over different time periods from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of jujube warehouse receipts and valid forecasts from 2022 - 2025 is shown [22]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - sales areas of first - grade grey jujubes from 2022 - 2025 are presented [24]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices, daily and weekly price change percentages of various apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) and the prices, daily and weekly price change percentages of different apple spot varieties (Qixia first - and second - grade 80, etc.) on July 11, 2025, are provided. For example, AP01 closed at 7695 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 0.69%, and the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 3.95 yuan/jin, with a daily decline of 3.66% and a weekly decline of 4% [26]. - **Cold - storage Inventory**: The cold - storage inventory of apples in Shaanxi, Shandong and the whole country from 2022 - 2025 is presented [30][31].

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated July 9, 2025, covering白糖 (sugar), 棉花 (cotton), 红枣 (red dates), and 苹果 (apples) [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - ICE raw sugar futures declined on Tuesday due to potential increases in production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets recently [3] Futures Prices and Spreads - SR01 closed at 5606 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 0.47%; SR03 closed at 5578 with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 0.45%; SR05 closed at 5558 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly increase of 0.58%; SR07 closed at 5780 with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%; SR09 closed at 5779 with a daily increase of 0.56% and a weekly increase of 0.23%; SR11 closed at 5669 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 0.60%. SB closed at 16.15 with a daily decrease of 0.62% and a weekly increase of 2.87%; W closed at 465.9 with a daily decrease of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 3.58% [4] - SR01 - 05 was 45, down 2 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -203, unchanged from the previous day and up 28 from the previous week; SR09 - 01 was 158, up 2 from the previous day and down 21 from the previous week; SR01 - 03 was 24, down 2 from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week; SR03 - 05 was 21, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week; SR05 - 07 was -218, down 9 from the previous day and up 28 from the previous week; SR07 - 09 was 15, up 9 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; SR09 - 11 was 105, up 1 from the previous day and down 17 from the previous week; SR11 - 01 was 53, up 1 from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week [4] Basis - For Nanning - SR01, the basis was 431, down 11 from the previous day and 63 from the previous week; Nanning - SR03 basis was 455, down 13 from the previous day and 66 from the previous week; Nanning - SR05 basis was 476, down 13 from the previous day and 70 from the previous week; Nanning - SR07 basis was 258, down 22 from the previous day and 42 from the previous week; Nanning - SR09 basis was 273, down 13 from the previous day and 42 from the previous week; Nanning - SR11 basis was 378, down 12 from the previous day and 59 from the previous week. For Kunming - SR01, the basis was 276, down 1 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; Kunming - SR03 basis was 300, down 3 from the previous day and 26 from the previous week; Kunming - SR05 basis was 321, down 3 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; Kunming - SR07 basis was 103, down 12 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; Kunming - SR09 basis was 118, down 3 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; Kunming - SR11 basis was 223, down 2 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week [11] Import Prices and Profits - The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4457, down 30 from the previous day and up 161 from the previous week; the quota - out price was 5662, down 39 from the previous day and up 211 from the previous week. The quota - in price of Thai sugar imports was 4498, down 30 from the previous day and up 152 from the previous week; the quota - out price was 5715, down 39 from the previous day and up 199 from the previous week [14] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - This year, domestic cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. Low inventory supports cotton prices, and the valuation of cotton prices has been repaired. However, negative feedback from downstream consumption is gradually accumulating, and the pressure of finished product inventory is gradually emerging, putting pressure on the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate in the range of 13600 - 13900. Attention should be paid to whether the quota policy can be implemented and further adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16] Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13785, up 25 with a daily increase of 0.18%; Cotton 05 closed at 13770, up 20 with a daily increase of 0.15%; Cotton 09 closed at 13830, up 45 with a daily increase of 0.33%; Yarn 01 closed at 19955 (a special situation with a - 100% change); Yarn 05 closed at 19915 (a special situation with a - 100% change); Yarn 09 closed at 19985, up 20 with a daily increase of 0.1% [17] Spreads - The cotton basis was 1408, down 33; Cotton 01 - 05 was 10, down 10; Cotton 05 - 09 was -35, down 15; Cotton 09 - 01 was 25, up 25; The flower - yarn spread was 6190, down 35; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1561, up 96; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was -625, down 15 [18] Group 4: Red Dates Market Core View - Currently, the downstream is in the off - season for consumption, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The supply of old red dates is sufficient. As the critical fruiting period approaches, the market focus is gradually shifting to new - season red dates. Early July is the physiological fruit - dropping stage of grey dates. Attention should be paid to the fruiting situation of new red dates, and there may still be potential for weather - related speculation. However, the high inventory of old red dates may suppress the futures market. If the price center moves up, the registration of red date warehouse receipts may accelerate, putting pressure on red date prices [21] Group 5: Apple Market Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. Due to the busy farming season in Shandong, the packaging quantity is limited. The apple supply in Shaanxi is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the small supply, their impact on the market is limited [26] Futures and Spot Prices - AP01 closed at 7625 with a daily increase of 0.78% and a weekly decrease of 0.25%; AP03 closed at 7608 with a daily increase of 0.63% and a weekly decrease of 0.4%; AP04 closed at 7653 with a daily increase of 0.16% and a weekly decrease of 0.42%; AP05 closed at 7712 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a weekly decrease of 0.41%; AP10 closed at 7743 with a daily increase of 1.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.01%; AP11 closed at 7572 with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; AP12 closed at 7605 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly decrease of 0.01. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.8 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 6 with no daily change and a 0.00% weekly change; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.4 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.8 with no daily or weekly change. The futures market profit was -666, down 7.88% from the previous day and 4.86% from the previous week; the theoretical delivery price was 8600 with no daily or weekly change; the main contract basis was 934, up 6.5% from the previous day and 3.78% from the previous week [27] Spreads - AP01 - 05 was -121, up 34.44% from the previous day and 11.01% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 29, down 1066.67% from the previous day and up 93.33% from the previous week; AP10 - 01 was 92, down 1.08% from the previous day and 2.13% from the previous week [27]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Trump administration extended the tariff suspension period to August 1 but added tariffs on multiple countries. The gold - buying trend of global central banks remains unchanged, and China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the second half of the year [3] Data Summary - SHFE gold and silver futures and COMEX gold price charts are presented, showing price trends from 2024 - 2025 [4] - Graphs of the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and between gold and the US dollar index are provided [8][9] - Charts of gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories are shown [12][13][14] Group 3: Copper Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks and put pressure on copper prices. The market is adjusting its demand expectations, and the strengthening US dollar index suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [15] Data Summary - Copper futures prices:沪铜主力 at 78400 yuan/ton, down 1.53%;伦铜3M at 9665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [16] - Copper spot prices: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 79190 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and scrap - refined copper price difference data are provided [24][27] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data show changes [28][29] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports prices in the short term. However, long - term prospects are bearish. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, but short - term prices may be strong due to news and squeeze - out risks. Cast aluminum alloy is restricted by high costs and weak demand [31][32] Data Summary - Aluminum and alumina futures prices:沪铝主力 at 20515 yuan/ton, down 0.05%;氧化铝主力 at 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [33][35] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and basis data are presented [39][44][46] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes [53] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc supply is gradually becoming looser, but inventory accumulation is slow and remains at a low level. Demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [60] Data Summary - Zinc futures prices:沪锌主力 at 22120 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [61] - Zinc spot prices: SMM 0 zinc average price at 22040 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [66] - Zinc inventory data show changes, with沪锌仓单 increasing and伦锌库存 decreasing [69] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices are relatively stable, nickel iron prices are falling, stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, and anti - dumping taxes affect the market. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - to - order model. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro trends [73] Data Summary - Nickel futures prices:沪镍主连 at 119140 yuan/ton, down 1% [74] - Nickel - related price and inventory data, including nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel, are presented [80][82][89] Group 7: Tin Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks. Tin's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on tin prices [91] Data Summary - Tin futures prices:沪锡主力 at 262890 yuan/ton, down 0.98% [92] - Tin spot prices and inventory data are provided [96][99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The long - term supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the over - supply pressure persists [105] Data Summary - Lithium carbonate futures prices:碳酸锂期货主力 at 64400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan from the previous day [106] - Lithium spot prices, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, show changes [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data show changes [114] Group 9: Silicon Core View - There is significant capital interference in the silicon industry, and the core contradiction is "strong expectation, weak reality." The rise in polysilicon prices drives industrial silicon prices, but the market deviates from fundamentals [116] Data Summary - Industrial silicon spot prices:华东553 at 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged [117] - Industrial silicon futures prices:工业硅主力 at 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, and other product prices and production, inventory data are presented [128][134][140]

Report Core Views Palm Oil - Fundamental factors are supported by improved exports in Malaysia and policies in Indonesia, but high domestic inventories are suppressing price increases. Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 7 increased by 3.8% - 4.2% month - on - month, continuing the positive trend in June (up 4.5% month - on - month). Indonesian exports in June surged 48% year - on - year to 1.92 million tons. However, domestic palm oil inventories reached 2.479 million tons as of July 5, a weekly increase of 22,500 tons. Key variables include the sustainability of Malaysian exports and potential adjustments to Indonesia's export tariff policy [3]. Soybean Oil - There is a divergence between international and domestic fundamentals. International policy expectations and high domestic supply are in a tug - of - war. The US House of Representatives plans to review the "Clean Energy Expenditure Act" on July 12, which could increase the demand for soybean oil in the biodiesel industry by about 2 million tons per year if passed. But in China, the supply pressure is significant, with an expected arrival of 8.6 million tons of imported soybeans in July and a high crushing volume of 2.55 million tons. The key variables are the weather in North American soybean - growing regions and the progress of US policy implementation [4]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventories and low consumption, with limited policy support, and it is difficult to show improvement in the short term. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China has remained above 630,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 82%. Key factors to watch are the progress of inventory reduction and the weather in North American rapeseed - growing regions [5]. Imported Soybeans and Domestic Meal - For imported soybeans, the supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations. For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. Rapeseed meal inventory reduction is slow, and its market trend will generally follow that of soybean meal and is expected to be weak [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - The table shows the monthly and inter - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [6]. - Palm oil futures and spot prices are presented, including prices of different contracts, BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, along with their changes [7]. - Soybean oil futures and spot prices are provided, including prices of different contracts, CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, along with their changes [13]. Meal Price and Spread - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, including closing prices, daily changes, and price change percentages of different contracts [18]. - Information on the spot and futures spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is provided, including spreads between different contracts, spot prices, and basis prices [20].

能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年7月8日 研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面要点： 价格：7月8日烧碱主力合约（SH2509）收盘报2408元 / 吨，较前一交易日上涨0.54%。32% 离子膜碱：鲁西南：主流成交价 790-830 元 / 吨。 鲁中东部：主流成交价 810-890 元 / 吨，部分企业因检修供应偏紧。鲁北：主流成交价 850-910 元 / 吨，受氧化铝厂刚需支撑。鲁南：主流 成交价 850 - 870 元 / 吨，区域价差收窄。50% 离子膜碱：主流成交价1480 - 1550 / 吨。 供给：本周中国 20 ...

Core View - China's zinc consumption is growing steadily, supporting the demand fundamentals [3] - Low prices are forcing some zinc enterprises to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [3] - Negative factors: Social inventories are continuously accumulating slightly, indicating oversupply; zinc consumption in Western developed countries has dropped significantly, dragging down global demand [3] - Trading consultation view: It is recommended to monitor changes in social inventories to judge market trends [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Sheet and Coil - Galvanized sheet and coil market sentiment index (weekly) is presented with data from 2023 - 2025 [5] - Galvanized sheet and coil weekly inventory - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] - Steel mill galvanized sheet and coil weekly production - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] Net Exports and Imports - Net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are presented with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area from 2015 - 2024 are provided [12][14] - Seasonal data of 100 large - and medium - sized cities' land transaction area and 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [16][17] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in transportation, warehousing, postal services, water conservancy, environment, public facilities management, and tertiary industry infrastructure construction from 2020 - 2024 are presented [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrate from 2021 - 2025 is provided [22] - Zinc concentrate TC (treatment charge) data from 2022 - 2025 are presented [24] Zinc Production - Monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots from 2021 - 2025 is shown [25] - China's zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonality from 2021 - 2025 is provided [26] Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days from 2021 - 2025 are presented [28] - LME and SHFE zinc inventory data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including total inventory and futures inventory [28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and international zinc price trends from 2023 - 2025 are presented [31] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index from 2022 - 2025 are shown [34] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract from 2023 - 2025 are presented [32] Premiums and Discounts - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 premiums and discounts from 2023 - 2025 are presented [35] - Seasonal data of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premiums and discounts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [36] - Seasonal data of Tianjin zinc ingot basis from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38] - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023 - 2025 are shown [40]