油脂油料产业日报 2025/10/22 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, the push for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe has led to a sharp drop in hedging demand, but the fundamental support factors remain unchanged. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in the next week and December, and the medium - to - long - term monetary easing environment will continue. The global demand for gold allocation remains stable, and institutional investors are still optimistic about the medium - term outlook after the short - term sharp decline [3]. - For copper, the spot market atmosphere is average, downstream sentiment is low and demand is mainly for rigid needs. With the replenishment of domestic and imported supplies, the increase in spot circulation has led to a downward adjustment of premiums [18]. - For aluminum, macro data shows that China's core CPI growth rate expanded to 1% in September, indicating a mild recovery in domestic demand. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which is positive for aluminum prices. The market believes that the probability of tariff negotiation success is high. The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are stable this week, and the continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides some support for aluminum prices. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support at the bottom [37]. - For zinc, the fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Domestic smelting supply is stable, while overseas there are production cuts. The price spread has been widening due to inconsistent fundamentals. The domestic zinc market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward driving forces [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs affects risk appetite. In the nickel ore market, Indonesia's new quota regulations may lead to a decline in 2026 quotas. The new energy sector is in the peak season, with strong demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel prices may decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. - For tin, the fundamentals have not changed. Yunnan's production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve the supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is still strong, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [92]. - For lithium carbonate, market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly destocked. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to continue to grow month - on - month, which will support the futures price [106]. - For the silicon industry chain, for industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. For polysilicon, there are production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs further observation [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio, as well as the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term gold and silver fund holdings [4][9][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term sharp decline but medium - term outlook remains positive due to long - term monetary easing and stable global gold allocation demand [3]. Copper - **Spot and Futures Data**: Spot copper prices in various regions have declined, with daily price drops ranging from 0.89% to 0.9%. Futures prices of Shanghai copper have slightly increased, with a daily increase of 0.02%. The premium of Shanghai copper spot has decreased by 40% [23][24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The spot market is weak, and the increase in supply has led to a decline in premiums [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.36% to 0.79%. There are various price spreads among different contracts, such as the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts [38][41]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Macro data is positive for aluminum prices, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides support. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.09% to 0.32%. Zinc inventory has decreased, with a daily decrease of 1.6% for Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and 5.3% for LME zinc inventory [61][71]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides short - term support [60]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends. Nickel spot average prices are presented. The new energy sector has strong demand, while nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices may decline slightly [76][83][75]. - **Macro Factors**: Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.26% to 0.5%. Tin inventory has increased slightly, with a 1.17% increase in Shanghai tin warehouse receipts [93][101]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and short - term prices are strong [92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate futures prices have increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.54%. Inventory has decreased, with a 2.92% decrease in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts [107][115]. - **Market Outlook**: Strong demand before the end of the year will support the price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Production**: Industrial silicon prices have little change, and some prices have decreased slightly. Southwest polysilicon production cuts need further observation. The price of industrial silicon may increase slightly as the dry season approaches [118]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: High inventory restricts the price increase of industrial silicon [118].

【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 白糖日报 基本面主因全球供应过剩预期持续压制糖价，巴西9月下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is currently focused on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may experience a slight rebound, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside potential, and a subsequent decline is likely. Short - term outlook is for a rebound, while the medium - to - long - term remains weak [3]. - The iron ore market is operating weakly under macro - sentiment and fundamental pressures. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. The price may be supported if there are positive policy signals [18]. - The coking coal market has strong bottom support due to tight resources and policy expectations, but the rebound space is limited by downstream contradictions. The price rebound depends on the downstream steel supply - demand balance [30]. - The ferroalloy market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. Without unexpected stimulus policies, prices will remain under pressure [48]. - The soda ash market has supply pressure in the long - term. Although exports are better than expected, high inventory restricts the price, with limited downside due to cost support [61]. - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, and prices are suppressed. The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe and production line ignition plans need to be monitored [86]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up from 3047 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, up from - 57 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3247 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3219 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up from - 17 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar - to - iron ore ratio and rebar - to - coke ratio remained stable on the 22nd compared to the 21st [15]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The aggregated rebar price in China was 3215 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up slightly from 3212 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 142 yuan/ton, down from 153 yuan/ton [7]. - The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3270 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 33 yuan/ton, down from 51 yuan/ton [9]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Basis** - On October 22, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the 21st. The 01 basis was 7.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the 21st [19]. - The price of Rizhao PB powder was 779 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan from the 21st [19]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig - iron output was 240.95 million tons on October 17, 2025, down 0.59 million tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 14278.27 million tons, up 253.77 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan week - on - week. The coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the 21st [35]. - The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st. The coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 220 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the 21st [35]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 20 yuan week - on - week. The immediate coking profit was 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the 21st [36]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On October 22, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan, down 14 yuan from the 21st. The silicon iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan, down 24 yuan from the 21st [49]. - The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the 21st [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 220 yuan on the 22nd, down 64 yuan from the 21st. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 38 yuan, down 4 yuan from the 21st [52]. - The silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st [52]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 62 yuan, up 1 yuan from the 21st [62]. - **Spot Prices** - The heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton on the 22nd, unchanged from the 21st. The heavy - soda ash to light - soda ash price difference in North China was 100 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1241 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 89 yuan, down 3 yuan from the 21st [86]. - **Sales and Production** - On October 21, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 59%, in Hubei was 86%, in East China was 84%, and in South China was 98% [87].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 能源化工周报—塑料 2025年10月20日 研究员：兰雪 交易咨询：Z0018543 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面信息： 数据来源：同花顺、隆众资讯 东亚期货 3 • 供给： PE生产企业开工率81.76%，环比2.26%；PE周度产量65.06万吨，环比3.04% 。 • 需求： PE下游加权开工季节性回升，下游加权开工率44.92%，环比0.52% 。 • 库存：本周PE企业库存52.95万吨，环比27.67%；社会库存54.56万吨，环比-2.16% 。 • 价格与利润：本周PE现货价格环比-0.12%至7145元/吨， PE期货价格环比-0.96%至6874 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Cost-side crude oil rebounded, providing support for styrene. There were partial device overhauls in the short term, but overall supply remained at a high level. This week, the inventory at East China ports slightly increased after the holiday and was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The rigid demand from the three major downstream sectors showed no significant increase, and the spot demand was expected to be weak [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - EB production enterprise operating rate was 71.88%, a 2.37% increase compared to the previous period. EB weekly output was 33.94 tons, a 3.32% increase [8]. Demand - The weighted operating rate of the three major downstream sectors was 61.95%, a 10.34% increase compared to the previous period. The weighted inventory of the three major downstream sectors was 10.60 tons, a 7.80% increase [8]. Inventory - This week, the EB inventory at East China factories was 10.17 tons, a 6.00% decrease compared to the previous period. The East China port inventory was 19.65 tons, a 17.30% increase [8]. Upstream and Cost - No specific data was provided other than charts showing historical data trends such as pure benzene - naphtha cracking spread, ethylene - naphtha cracking spread, pure benzene operating rate, etc. Price and Profit - This week, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 1.09% to 5615 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spot price of styrene decreased by 3.34% to 6495 yuan/ton [8]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis was 12, and the (11 - 12) calendar spread was -27 [8].

尿素产业链周报 尿素产业链周报 2025/10/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：刘琛瑞 Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel Products [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This period saw a decrease in production and inventory and an increase in apparent demand for rebar; for hot-rolled coils, production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products rebounded month-on-month. Pay attention to opportunities for the narrowing of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [5]. - The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. - The hot-rolled coil 2601 contract fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In August, the month-on-month decline in new real estate starts narrowed [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel products, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 59,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 659,000 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5695 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 636,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1.647 million tons. The rebar output was 2.0116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 224,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 4.291 million tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2184 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 145,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.655 million tons [7]. - The EAF start-up rate was 68.85%, a month-on-month increase of 1.79% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.8226 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.846 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.0971 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.4105 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.859 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.1397 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1919 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 629,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 493,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.7541 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3996 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 355,600 tons [7].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—铁矿石 2025年10月17日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 基本面要点： 基本面信息： 观点： 铁水环比下降；港库累积，钢厂库存环比下降。铁矿石上行空间有限。 铁矿石2601合约震荡。 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal 2601 contract is in a volatile state, with mine inventory accumulating and environmental and safety inspections starting [5]. - The coke 2601 contract is also in a volatile state, and some coke enterprises are proposing a second round of price increases [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt price is 1124, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt price is 1222, coke warehouse receipt price is 1586, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1579 [11]. 3.2 Demand, Profit, and Production - The coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 145, with a week - on - week decrease of 26 [11]. - The full - caliber daily coke output is 111.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.75 tons [11]. - The pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.59 tons [11]. - The coal washery output is 26.79 tons (due to changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 tons [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 891.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.55 tons. Coking plant coke inventory is 57.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.82 tons. Steel mill coke inventory is 639.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.45 tons. Port inventory is 195.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.92 tons [13]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2058.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.22 tons and a year - on - year increase of 37.26 tons. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 997.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.91 tons. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 788.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.66 tons. Port inventory is 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 137.85 tons. Coal washery inventory is 290.41 tons (due to data sample changes), a week - on - week increase of 10.18 tons [15]. 3.4 Import and Export - From January to August, the imported coking coal was 72.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.01%. From January to August, the exported coke was 4.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.15% [17].