重要事项: 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1067.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | | | | 收于 1514.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.73%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1061.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 0.61%；J2601 合约收于 1517.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.17%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、明年要采取更具针对性的措施，进一步增强统一大市场的建设成效，实现各类资源 | | | | | 要素高效配置。市场层面，要持续完善市场运行规则。政府层面，要持续规范地方政府 | | | | | 经济促进行为。企业层面，要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 | | | | | 2、明年 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2601 | 价格 | 1630 | 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 | 1670 | 元/吨。持仓 | | | | | | | | | | | | 方面，多头持仓增加 | 234 | 手至 | 17.86 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 4367 | 手至 | 19.34 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 20.03 | 万吨，较上一工作日-0.27 | 万吨；较去年同期增 | 加 | 1.18 | 万吨；今日开工率 | 82.82%，较去年同期 | 83.38%下降升 | 0.56%。 | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 | 123.42 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国政府将经济复苏押注 AI 生产力提升，以解决联邦债务。知名投资机构警告， | | | | 若 | AI 未能兑现承诺，美国将陷入深度衰退和主权债务危机，其破坏性远超 2008 年 | | | | | 金融危机。因政府作为最后买家自身陷入困境，整个金融体系将失去安全网。 | | | | | 2、债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注市场情绪可能 | | | | | 转向预期第一季度就会降息。目前市场定价显示，下一次降息要到明年年中才会被 | | | | | 完全计入，第二次降息则预期在 10 月。 | | | | | 3、哈塞特势头不稳， ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...

早盘提示 | | 6、离岸人民币对美元汇率再次击穿 7.04，盘中一度升至 7.0373，创 2024 年 10 月 | | --- | --- | | 4 | 日以来新高。在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至 7.0417，创下 2024 年 10 月 8 | | | 日以来新高。 | | | 7、纳斯达克宣布，计划于当地时间 12 月 15 日向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 | | | 文件，将股票及交易所交易产品的交易时长从每周五个交易日的 16 小时延长至 23 | | | 小时。此举意在满足全球投资者对美国股票的庞大需求。 | | | 8、高盛估计，特朗普政府在 2026 年上半年宣布对铜进口征收 15%关税的可能性为 | | | 55%，该政策预计将于 2027 年生效，并可能在 2028 年关税会提高至 30%。对未来关 | | | 税的预期很可能会使美国铜价高于伦敦金属交易所基准价，从而鼓励更多囤货。 | | | 9、机构普遍认为，本轮铂金、钯金上涨具备坚实的基本面支撑。供应端集中度极 | | | 高的南非矿区持续面临电力短缺、基础设施老化等问题，而需求端既受益于传统汽 | | | 车催化剂用 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - According to the latest Mongolian coal customs clearance data from Palm Coal and Coke, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has been operating at a high level. As of December 15, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles in December was 1,453, a 7.7% increase from the average daily number of 1,349 vehicles in November, and it is at the highest monthly average customs - clearance level of the year [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Customs - Clearance Data of Ganqimaodu Port in December**: From December 1 to December 15, the customs - clearance vehicle data shows fluctuations. For example, on December 5, the total number of customs - cleared vehicles reached 1,822, while on December 12, it dropped to 1,152. The short - haul freight rate remained stable at 90 during this period [4] - **Graphical Data**: There is a graph showing the daily customs - cleared vehicles and monthly average customs - clearance level at the 288 Port, but specific numerical analysis from the graph is not provided [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 预计对 10 年期美债收益率产生 20-30 个基点下行压力。 | | --- | | 6、AI 专家杨立昆表示，大语言模型近五年能力飞速提升，看起来正逼近人类；但 | | 反对者认为这是历史反复出现的"智能幻觉"—擅长语言和局部任务不等于真正智 | | 能，LLM 只是工具，真正的通用智能未来一定会来，但不会沿着当前大模型这条路。 | | 7、尽管面临美国政府的政策压力，可再生能源板块今年却意外跑赢大盘和石油股， | | 成为市场大赢家。标普全球清洁能源转型指数年内飙升 44%，全球对可再生能源的 | | 投资创下历史新高。核心驱动力源于人工智能革命引发的爆炸性能源需求。 | | 8、为寻求新的回报并获取关键的"信息优势"，对冲基金正大举进军实物大宗商 | | 品市场。包括 Citadel、Balyasny 和 Jain Global 在内的金融巨头，通过收购资产 | | 和扩建团队，直接涉足天然气、电力和原油的实物交易。 | | 9、国金证券研报，SpaceX 的护城河并非单一技术，而是成本、制造和客户三大壁 | | 垒的深度融合。其通过猎鹰 9 号的可复用经济 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In November, the production of raw coal remained stable. The output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 430 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and the daily output was 1.423 million tons. From January to November, the output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content - The report presents the monthly cumulative output (in billions of tons) and monthly output (in billions of tons) of Chinese raw coal from 2020 - 2025, sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by the Green大华 Futures Research Institute [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail总额 were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate exceeded expectations [4][23]. - The year - on - year decline of real estate sales volume and price continued in November, and the data in early December also showed the same trend [4][23]. - As of the end of October, 5000 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but the investment data in October and November did not show obvious improvement [4][23]. - The relatively stable international environment after the China - US summit at the end of October is beneficial to China's exports, and stable export confidence is conducive to the growth of private investment [4][23]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year to promote investment to stop falling and rebound and boost consumption [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, the broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.5% [1][5]. - From January to November, the manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.6% [1][5]. - From January to November, the national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 15.4% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year [5]. - In November, manufacturing investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [5]. - In November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.03% month - on - month, showing a continuous decline for ten consecutive months [5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [2][9]. - In the fourth quarter, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly year - on - year, and the national real estate sales were still at the bottom [10]. - In November, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding [2][10]. - In November, the real estate development enterprise's available funds decreased by 32.6% year - on - year [11]. - In November, the new housing start - up area decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 25% year - on - year [11]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.0% [2][12]. - In November, the value - added of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.4% year - on - year, maintaining rapid growth [2][12]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In November, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [2][14]. - From January to November, China's cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.9% [3][18]. - In November, among the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the quota, categories with relatively fast year - on - year growth included communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, etc. Categories with relatively fast year - on - year decline included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, building and decoration materials, etc. [19]. 3.6 Service Industry and Employment - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [3][21]. - In November, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, remaining the same as the previous month and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same month of the previous year [3][21].

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2601合约跌幅0.04%，收于2242元/吨 | | | | 。 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示截至12月12日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约153万吨。 | | | | | 北方港口贸易商陆续执行前期签订合同，库存大幅低于去年同期；广东港口玉米库 | | | | | 存45万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.4万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示截至2025年第50周末，广州港口谷物库存量为128 | | | | | .40万吨，环比增加27.76%， ...