Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 6 | 元至 | 1721 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格稳 | | | | | 定在 | 1780 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 12489 | 手至 | 17.79 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 11313 | 手至 | 19.43 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The central financial and economic commission's efforts to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises are expected to boost the performance of listed companies. Multiple foreign capital giants are bullish on Chinese assets, and the reallocation of global financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets showed strong consolidation and closed slightly higher. The innovative drug sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6373 points, up 17 points or 0.28%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5934 points, up 19 points or 0.33%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2717 points, up 5 points or 0.21%. The CSI 1000 index futures saw a net inflow of 2.8 billion yuan in precipitation funds [1] Important News - The central financial and economic commission meeting studied the in-depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, aiming to regulate disorderly low-price competition among enterprises and promote the exit of backward production capacity - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including providing necessary medical insurance data services for R & D - Huawei officially announced the open - source of its Pangu models and related inference technologies - Leading domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and the domestic glass output in July is expected to drop to about 45GW - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December this year, and lower the terminal interest rate forecast to 3 - 3.25% - Goldman Sachs expects the profit growth of the S & P 500 in Q2 to slow down significantly to 4%, a two - year low - Morgan Stanley believes that technology giants hope to expand AI tools to the physical world through open - source, and China may lead in the "robot race" - Elon Musk said Neuralink aims to explore the nature of human consciousness and improve the human thinking transmission speed - The US dollar index fell 10.8% in the first half of the year, the worst half - year performance since 1973 - US Treasury Secretary expects to sign a series of new trade agreements before July 9 and believes it is unreasonable to expand the issuance of long - term Treasury bonds [1][2] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets showed strong consolidation and closed slightly higher. The central financial and economic commission's meeting on promoting the unified national market and Goldman Sachs' expectation of Fed rate cuts contributed to the market sentiment. Multiple foreign capital giants are bullish on Chinese assets [2] Future Outlook - The central financial and economic commission's efforts to promote the unified national market and regulate competition, the production cuts in the photovoltaic glass industry, the expected Fed rate cuts, and the bullish stance of foreign capital on Chinese assets are all positive factors. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2] Trading Strategy - For futures trading, be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts, as growth - style indices have higher elasticity - For option trading, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices as the market is expected to trend upward [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The iron ore market has a strong downward driving force in July, with the upper pressure level of the main contract rising to 738 and the support level at 690. Existing short positions should be held with stop - losses set [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main iron ore contract closed at 708.5, down 1.32%; the secondary main contract closed at 685.0, down 1.08%. It closed higher in the night session [1] Important Information - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission studied issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, standardization of government procurement, and promotion of integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [1] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 4% month - on - month increase from May and a 29% year - on - year increase from 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. It has seen three consecutive months of year - on - year growth since April, with the growth rate expanding monthly [1] - The third round and fourth batch of 8 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams completed the on - site inspection phase in 5 provinces (Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Ningxia) and 3 central enterprises [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market declined significantly, weaker than the finished steel market, and stopped falling at night. The profit per ton of steel is about 100 yuan, some blast furnaces have resumed production but not at full capacity. The molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons, close to the phased top and may decline later. The arrival and shipment volumes of iron ore decreased this period, and the port inventory decreased, releasing much inventory pressure [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short positions and set stop - losses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global financial assets are being reallocated, with funds flowing to Chinese assets, and A-shares are expected to evolve into a capital-driven upward trend [2][3][4] - Multiple factors, including US debt monetization, countervailing tariffs, crude oil price surges, and China's anti-involution efforts, are contributing to a global inflationary trend [2][14][18] - Various factors such as Fed rate cut expectations and China's anti-involution are influencing the prices of different asset classes, including equities, commodities, gold, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][4][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Situation - The Israel-Iran ceasefire is a prelude to a larger conflict, and Iran may become "Gaza-like." Israel's actions against Iran are likely to occur in four steps [10] Crude Oil Market - The crude oil price surge in June was likely the first wave. In the context of the Israel-Iran conflict, future disruptions to Iran's oil production and potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to skyrocket, similar to the 1970s [12][16] Global Inflation - US debt monetization, countervailing tariffs, crude oil price pulses, and China's anti-involution efforts are jointly contributing to a global inflationary curve [2][14][18] Global Financial Asset Reallocation - Global investment institutions are "de-Americanizing," selling US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, and reallocating funds to Chinese assets [2][20][23] Equity Market - Global financial asset reallocation and the migration of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market are driving A-shares towards a capital-driven upward trend [2][3][32] Commodity Market - China's anti-involution and Fed rate cut expectations are expected to help industrial product prices recover [3][32][36] Gold Market - Stablecoins are replacing the dollar in trade settlements, accelerating the decline of the dollar's credit, while gold is still in a technical adjustment phase [3][41][43] Bond Market - With a large-scale bond issuance and the central bank removing the mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," the bond market faces certain pressures [44] Foreign Exchange Market - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening [3][4][45] July Outlook for Various Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: Global financial asset reallocation and the migration of household savings are driving funds into Chinese equities [4][46] - **Commodities**: Anti-involution and Fed rate cut expectations are expected to boost industrial product prices [4][36][46] - **Gold Assets**: Stablecoins are replacing the dollar in trade, and gold is in a technical adjustment [4][41][46] - **Bond Assets**: The central bank's policy adjustment and large-scale bond issuance are putting pressure on the bond market [4][44][46] - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: A double surplus in trade and capital is expected to strengthen the offshore RMB [4][45][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2013, the egg market has gone through three major cycles, and currently, the egg - chicken farming profit has turned negative again. This year, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit from May to June turned negative, and the loss time is not long enough to drive a large - scale and rapid culling of chickens. Before the farming end completes the substantial capacity reduction, the price is expected to remain at a low level. If the seasonal consumption peak drives the price to rise rapidly, the capacity - reduction process and supply pressure will be postponed [4][5] - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, it was only after the second price low appeared and persisted that the culling age of chickens dropped below 500 days and the capacity was basically cleared. This year, the first price low may appear in early July, and as of June 30, the culling age of chickens was still 508 days. The second price low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the culling age of chickens may remain high. The capacity - reduction process may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Analyzing Egg - Chicken Supply from the Farming Profit Cycle - From 2013 to 2017, due to the epidemic, the egg - chicken inventory decreased and the price increased. Then, driven by high profits, the supply increased and the price fell. In 2017, the industry completed capacity reduction due to the epidemic [4] - From 2017 to 2020, after the supply decreased, the egg price recovered. The African swine fever increased the supply of poultry meat and eggs, and the high - prosperity cycle of eggs was extended. In late 2019, the egg supply pressure emerged and the price dropped [4] - From 2020 to the present, after the capacity reduction, the egg price recovered in 2021. In 2022, the egg price remained at an average level. In 2023, the egg price fluctuated widely. In 2024, the egg price first decreased and then increased, and the capacity expanded. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the egg price has been falling [5] - This year, from May to June, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit turned negative. The average loss per jin of eggs in the second quarter was 0.13 yuan/jin, and the average farming profit from January to June was +0.17 yuan/jin. The short - term loss is not enough to drive large - scale culling [5] 2. Thoughts on the Current Egg - Chicken Capacity - Reduction Path - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, the first low point appeared in early February with a culling age of over 500 days, and the second low point from mid - May to mid - June led to a culling age dropping to a minimum of 446 days and basic capacity clearance [2][7] - This year, the first price low may be in early July. As of June 30, the Guantao egg price was 2.49 yuan/jin, and the culling age was 508 days. According to historical data, a second low and its persistence are needed to drive large - scale culling. However, the second low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the capacity - reduction may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][8] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Focus on the culling rhythm and amplitude of the egg - chicken farming end in the third quarter. If the culling is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of contracts in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [10] - Egg - chicken farming enterprises are advised to consider the selling hedging opportunities of relevant contracts in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [10]

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View - The US faces a large - scale debt problem, with about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds to be sold in the next year, which may lead to a "fiscal heart attack." The passage of a related bill is uncertain and has raised concerns [1] - There are different views on the valuation of US stocks. Goldman Sachs believes it is too high, while others think US stocks are supported by solid balance sheets, and European trading is more speculative [1] - Neuralink has the potential to revolutionize human - machine interaction, with the ultimate goal of achieving a full - brain interface and transforming the human brain into a "biological + digital" brain [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and there are ongoing institutional applications [1] - A New York mayoral candidate advocates for a more equitable city by taxing the top 1% of the wealthy to fund public services [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - The US needs to sell about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds in the next year, including $1 trillion for interest payments, $9 trillion for debt repayment, and an additional $2 trillion due to a $2 trillion deficit [1] - The passage of a bill with a large - scale debt is uncertain, and some senators oppose it [1] - Different views on US and European stock markets: Goldman Sachs thinks US stock valuation is too high, while others believe US stocks have solid balance sheets, and European trading depends on infrastructure plans [1] - Neuralink can enable humans to control Tesla Optimus robots with thoughts, and its ultimate goal is a full - brain interface [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and institutions are applying for related services [1] - A New York mayoral candidate wants to tax the top 1% to fund public services [1] Global Economic Logic - The US President claims to have reached a trade agreement with China, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising [1] - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI final value is 52.0, indicating continued expansion. China's June PMI production index continues to expand, and the new order index resumes expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 0. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion boosts European manufacturing [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted from the crisis phase in April to the "response phase" of the Fed's initial interest rate cut, driving a significant upward revaluation of risk assets [2] - Multiple foreign giants are collectively bullish on Chinese assets, and global financial asset reallocation is moving away from the US, which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares [2] - The market risk appetite has generally increased, and the market is expected to evolve from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets strengthened, with the growth style leading the market. The military sector had the highest increase. The total turnover of the two markets was 1.48 trillion yuan, slightly decreasing [1] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6356 points, up 79 points or 1.26%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5915 points, up 51 points or 0.88%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3936 points, up 14 points or 0.37%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2711 points, up 4 points or 0.16% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were game ETFs, aerospace ETFs, defense ETFs, high-end equipment ETFs, and satellite industry ETFs, while the top losers were CSI bank ETFs, leading securities ETFs, and financial ETFs [1] - Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were ground military equipment, military trade concepts, games, aviation equipment, and human brain engineering indices, while the top losers were small and medium-sized banks, oil and gas exploration, industrial metals, securities, and airport indices [1] - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and IH indices had net outflows of 5 billion, 2.4 billion, 1.8 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level [1] - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration of production activities in manufacturing enterprises. The new orders index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in market demand in the manufacturing industry [1] - As of June 27, there were 377 newly established equity funds in the first half of the year, with a total issuance of 184.708 billion shares, accounting for 35.49% of newly issued funds, setting new highs in recent years [1] - The central bank removed the statement of "choosing the opportunity to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added the expression of "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation" in the monetary policy thinking [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued licenses to 11 virtual asset trading platforms, and institutions have successively applied to become virtual asset trading service providers and provide custody services [1] - Elon Musk said that with Neuralink, every human can control a Tesla Optimus robot with their mind, and Neuralink's ultimate goal is to achieve a full-brain interface [1] - Ray Dalio said that the US must sell about $12 trillion in Treasury bonds in the next year, and the growing debt is like arterial plaque accumulation, which may cause a "fiscal heart attack" at any time [2] - Although Republican senators barely gathered enough votes to start the debate, the final passage of the bill is still uncertain, and its potential huge debt scale has raised concerns both within and outside the party [2] - US President Trump said that he hopes Iran will accept international inspections to verify that it will not restart its nuclear program and that he will consider bombing Iran again due to uranium enrichment issues [2] Market Logic - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets rebounded, with the growth style leading the market. The manufacturing PMI production index in June continued to expand, and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, better than expected [2] - The market has shifted from the crisis phase in April to the "response phase" of the Fed's initial interest rate cut, and the core driving force of the market is the keen insight into the change in the macro environment [2] - Multiple foreign giants are collectively bullish on Chinese assets, and the Goldman Sachs China equity strategist maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Outlook for the Future - The major indices of the two markets rebounded on Monday, with the growth style leading the market. The manufacturing PMI production index continued to expand in June, and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, better than expected [2] - Global investors are increasingly focusing on China's innovation and leading position. The market risk appetite has generally increased, and the market is expected to evolve from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market [2] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts, as growth indices have higher elasticity [2] - For stock index option trading, buy far-month deep out-of-the-money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - term view of buying on dips for the red date futures [26]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall reduction of first - crop red dates is significant, with less than 20% of sample orchards reaching the normal level, and the number of second - crop flowers has decreased by 35% compared to normal years. The specific fruit - setting quantity of second - crop flowers still needs to wait until around July 20 for a final judgment [23]. - In a year of reduced production, the price of red date futures usually rises rapidly from July to the centralized harvest period, divided into two stages: the game of reduction amplitude and the game of opening price. Currently, the market is mainly gambling on the actual growth of new - season red dates [25]. - Considering the reduction in 2025 compared to the historical high - yield year of 2024, the center of the game for the opening price should rise. Combining with the current CJ601 futures price, a short - term view of buying on dips is maintained [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Overview - **Research Location**: Main production areas of grey dates in Alar, Aksu, Tumushuke, and Makit [5]. - **Research Time**: From June 22 to June 27, 2025 [6]. - **Research Method**: - **Orchard Selection**: Invite local jujube farmers and agents as guides, randomly select sample orchards along the research route, with a total of 150 orchards covering the main grey - date production areas [6]. - **Judgment Method**: Observe the number and growth of flowers and fruits on the upper, middle, and lower layers of jujube trees from different directions in the orchard, and compare them with normal years to make five - level judgments [6]. 3.2 Regional Research Results - **Alar Region**: Nearly 80% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 54% of sample orchards have "few" or "few to no" second - crop flowers and fruits [7]. - **Aksu Region**: About 10% of sample orchards have normal first - crop fruits, 40% are "few", and 50% are "few to no". About 50% of orchards have normal second - crop flowers and fruits, and the overall performance is close to normal. However, the quality of red dates is relatively poor, and the yield rate is low [13]. - **Tumushuke Region**: 77% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 59% have "few" second - crop flowers and fruits. There are differences among different regiments, with 44th and 48th regiments performing better [16]. - **Makit Region**: About 70% of sample orchards have first - crop fruit yields lower than normal years. The quantity of second - crop flowers and fruits varies significantly [20]. 3.3 Other Findings - **Weather Impact**: This year's sand - dust weather in southern Xinjiang is significantly more than usual, which affects photosynthesis and pollination. The impact of high - temperature weather may be more significant due to the large specific heat capacity of sand [23]. - **Farmers' Management**: Due to last year's high yields, farmers' management enthusiasm remains high, but the fruit - setting rate of jujube trees with earlier girdling time is better [23]. - **Growth Distribution**: The quantity of flowers and fruits in the middle and lower layers of most jujube trees is significantly less than that in the upper layer, and orchards with larger tree and row spacing have more flowers and fruits [24]. - **Growth Stagnation**: Some jujube farmers reported that the growth of jujube fruits has stagnated, possibly due to the damage to trees caused by last year's high yields and management methods [24].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五市场走势分化，成长类指数小幅上涨，价值类指数调整。两市成交额 1.54 万 | | | | | 亿元，变化不大。中证 1000 指数收 6276 点，涨 29 点，涨幅 0.47%；中证 500 指数 | | | | 收 | 5863 点，涨 25 点，涨幅 0.44%；沪深 300 指数收 3921 点，跌 24 点，跌幅-0.61%； | | | | | 上证 50 指数收 2707 点，跌 30 点，跌幅-1.13%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是 | | | | | 工业有色 ETF、通信设备 ETF、5G ETF、有色金属 ETF、稀有金属 ETF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The bullish expectation of corn has basically been fulfilled, and it is waiting for policy guidance. The current futures market has basically reached the expected price range, and the future market will be affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and consumption [6][7][20]. - Pig: The supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the market is trading the logic of basis repair. The supply of pigs will increase in the second half of the year, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [9][10][55]. - Eggs: There is still an expectation of a seasonal increase in egg prices, but the overall trend may be up first and then down. The supply pressure of eggs is obvious, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and consumption seasons [15][16][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply - demand pattern of the corn spot market tightened in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated upward with the center of gravity shifting up. As of June 27, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. - Futures market: The bullish sentiment in the corn futures market was gradually fulfilled in the first half of the year, and the futures price oscillated upward. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a 4.6% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bullish expectation [7]. 3.1.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies, especially import policy orientation [20]. - Industry logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [20]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, and there is still supply pressure in the US. Domestically, there is still a gap between production and demand in the long - term, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. Consumption: Feed consumption is rigid, and industrial consumption is relatively stable [20]. - Variety view: In the short - term, the spot market is stable and slightly strong; in the medium - term, it may maintain a stable and slightly strong pattern, but the upside space may be limited; in the long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost [20]. - Trading strategy: Long - term wide - range operation; medium - term low - buying thinking; short - term test the upper pressure of the range [20]. 3.2 Pig 3.2.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply of the pig spot market increased in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated downward. As of June 27, the ex - factory price of pigs in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a 9% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. - Futures market: The futures market fulfilled the downward expectation in advance and then traded the logic of basis repair. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 14005 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. 3.2.2 Strategy Review The main trading logic proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the strategy review effect is good [10]. 3.2.3 Market Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and pig prices and industrial policy orientation [53]. - Industry logic: After African swine fever, the normalization of diseases has led to significant fluctuations in pig prices. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over [54]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: In 2025, the supply of pigs will enter an upward cycle, and the supply in the second half of the year will still increase. Demand: The consumption of pork will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and the relative increment of supply and demand in the fourth - quarter seasonal consumption peak is the key driving force for the long - short game [55]. - Market view: In the short - term, there are both supports and pressures for pig prices; in the medium - term, the price in the third quarter depends on the release of weight pressure; in the long - term, the supply of pigs will continue to increase, and the profit of the breeding end in the fourth quarter depends on the contribution of weight to supply [56][57]. - Operation suggestion: Long - term short - selling thinking; medium - term wide - range operation around the expected support and pressure of spot prices; short - term trading the logic of basis repair driven by weight reduction [58]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply pressure of the egg spot market was obvious in the first half of the year, and the price dropped significantly. As of June 27, the spot price of eggs in Handan, Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, a 38% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. - Futures market: The bearish expectation of the egg futures market was gradually fulfilled, and the futures price broke through and fell. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2508 contract was 3543 yuan/500KG, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. 3.3.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bearish expectation [16]. 3.3.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [84]. - Industry logic: The egg - chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase [85]. - Supply - demand logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is mainly seasonally driven. The current egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The key to the price in the third quarter is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [86]. - Variety view: In the short - term, egg prices are weakly stable; in the medium - term, the supply pressure is high before mid - July, and if there is large - scale elimination in June - July, there may be a phased rebound in August - September [87]. - Trading strategy: The short - selling strategy in the first half of the year has been verified. For 08/09 contracts, there are differences in the expected high - point of spot prices in the second half of the year. It is recommended to enter the market after the market gives a safe space [88].