格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国政府将经济复苏押注 AI 生产力提升，以解决联邦债务。知名投资机构警告， | | | | 若 | AI 未能兑现承诺，美国将陷入深度衰退和主权债务危机，其破坏性远超 2008 年 | | | | | 金融危机。因政府作为最后买家自身陷入困境，整个金融体系将失去安全网。 | | | | | 2、债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注市场情绪可能 | | | | | 转向预期第一季度就会降息。目前市场定价显示，下一次降息要到明年年中才会被 | | | | | 完全计入，第二次降息则预期在 10 月。 | | | | | 3、哈塞特势头不稳， ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...

早盘提示 | | 6、离岸人民币对美元汇率再次击穿 7.04，盘中一度升至 7.0373，创 2024 年 10 月 | | --- | --- | | 4 | 日以来新高。在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至 7.0417，创下 2024 年 10 月 8 | | | 日以来新高。 | | | 7、纳斯达克宣布，计划于当地时间 12 月 15 日向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 | | | 文件，将股票及交易所交易产品的交易时长从每周五个交易日的 16 小时延长至 23 | | | 小时。此举意在满足全球投资者对美国股票的庞大需求。 | | | 8、高盛估计，特朗普政府在 2026 年上半年宣布对铜进口征收 15%关税的可能性为 | | | 55%，该政策预计将于 2027 年生效，并可能在 2028 年关税会提高至 30%。对未来关 | | | 税的预期很可能会使美国铜价高于伦敦金属交易所基准价，从而鼓励更多囤货。 | | | 9、机构普遍认为，本轮铂金、钯金上涨具备坚实的基本面支撑。供应端集中度极 | | | 高的南非矿区持续面临电力短缺、基础设施老化等问题，而需求端既受益于传统汽 | | | 车催化剂用 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - According to the latest Mongolian coal customs clearance data from Palm Coal and Coke, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has been operating at a high level. As of December 15, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles in December was 1,453, a 7.7% increase from the average daily number of 1,349 vehicles in November, and it is at the highest monthly average customs - clearance level of the year [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Customs - Clearance Data of Ganqimaodu Port in December**: From December 1 to December 15, the customs - clearance vehicle data shows fluctuations. For example, on December 5, the total number of customs - cleared vehicles reached 1,822, while on December 12, it dropped to 1,152. The short - haul freight rate remained stable at 90 during this period [4] - **Graphical Data**: There is a graph showing the daily customs - cleared vehicles and monthly average customs - clearance level at the 288 Port, but specific numerical analysis from the graph is not provided [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 预计对 10 年期美债收益率产生 20-30 个基点下行压力。 | | --- | | 6、AI 专家杨立昆表示，大语言模型近五年能力飞速提升，看起来正逼近人类；但 | | 反对者认为这是历史反复出现的"智能幻觉"—擅长语言和局部任务不等于真正智 | | 能，LLM 只是工具，真正的通用智能未来一定会来，但不会沿着当前大模型这条路。 | | 7、尽管面临美国政府的政策压力，可再生能源板块今年却意外跑赢大盘和石油股， | | 成为市场大赢家。标普全球清洁能源转型指数年内飙升 44%，全球对可再生能源的 | | 投资创下历史新高。核心驱动力源于人工智能革命引发的爆炸性能源需求。 | | 8、为寻求新的回报并获取关键的"信息优势"，对冲基金正大举进军实物大宗商 | | 品市场。包括 Citadel、Balyasny 和 Jain Global 在内的金融巨头，通过收购资产 | | 和扩建团队，直接涉足天然气、电力和原油的实物交易。 | | 9、国金证券研报，SpaceX 的护城河并非单一技术，而是成本、制造和客户三大壁 | | 垒的深度融合。其通过猎鹰 9 号的可复用经济 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In November, the production of raw coal remained stable. The output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 430 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and the daily output was 1.423 million tons. From January to November, the output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content - The report presents the monthly cumulative output (in billions of tons) and monthly output (in billions of tons) of Chinese raw coal from 2020 - 2025, sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by the Green大华 Futures Research Institute [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail总额 were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate exceeded expectations [4][23]. - The year - on - year decline of real estate sales volume and price continued in November, and the data in early December also showed the same trend [4][23]. - As of the end of October, 5000 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but the investment data in October and November did not show obvious improvement [4][23]. - The relatively stable international environment after the China - US summit at the end of October is beneficial to China's exports, and stable export confidence is conducive to the growth of private investment [4][23]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year to promote investment to stop falling and rebound and boost consumption [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, the broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.5% [1][5]. - From January to November, the manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.6% [1][5]. - From January to November, the national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 15.4% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year [5]. - In November, manufacturing investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [5]. - In November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.03% month - on - month, showing a continuous decline for ten consecutive months [5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [2][9]. - In the fourth quarter, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly year - on - year, and the national real estate sales were still at the bottom [10]. - In November, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding [2][10]. - In November, the real estate development enterprise's available funds decreased by 32.6% year - on - year [11]. - In November, the new housing start - up area decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 25% year - on - year [11]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.0% [2][12]. - In November, the value - added of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.4% year - on - year, maintaining rapid growth [2][12]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In November, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [2][14]. - From January to November, China's cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.9% [3][18]. - In November, among the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the quota, categories with relatively fast year - on - year growth included communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, etc. Categories with relatively fast year - on - year decline included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, building and decoration materials, etc. [19]. 3.6 Service Industry and Employment - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [3][21]. - In November, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, remaining the same as the previous month and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same month of the previous year [3][21].

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2601合约跌幅0.04%，收于2242元/吨 | | | | 。 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示截至12月12日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约153万吨。 | | | | | 北方港口贸易商陆续执行前期签订合同，库存大幅低于去年同期；广东港口玉米库 | | | | | 存45万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.4万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示截至2025年第50周末，广州港口谷物库存量为128 | | | | | .40万吨，环比增加27.76%， ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 15 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 在中央经济工作会议利好下，周五两市主要指数先抑后扬，半导体设备板块领涨。 | | | | | 两市成交额 2.09 万亿元，上涨放量。沪深 300 指数收 4580 点，涨 28 点，涨幅 0.63%； | | | | | 上证 50 指数收 2994 点，涨 17 点，涨幅 0.59%；中证 500 指数收 7169 点，涨 86 | | | | | 点，涨幅 1.23%；中证 1000 指数收 7370 点，涨 58 点，涨幅 0.81%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是科创半导体 ETF、半导体设备 ETF、电网设 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is starting to weaken as the US economy slides towards stagflation, and the Fed's restart of balance sheet expansion will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasuries per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [4] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revitalize its economic autonomy [4] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4] - The official US employment data may be overestimated by 60,000 per month, and the actual employment market may be in negative growth [4] - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the number of initial jobless claims has reached the highest level since September [8] - US employment is declining, with negative growth in the number of new ADP jobs in November and a significant increase in corporate lay - offs [11] - US consumption is weakening, with retail and food sales growing only 0.2% month - on - month in September [14] - US manufacturing prospects are poor, with capital goods imports falling both year - on - year and month - on - month in September, and the ISM manufacturing PMI index continuing to contract in November [17][20] - US inflation is accelerating, with the manufacturing PMI price index and the service PMI price index expanding [23] - The US economy is sliding towards stagflation, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in the PPI of commodities in September, combined with weakening consumption and declining employment [26] - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly affected by US reciprocal tariffs [29] - The yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared, and the large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US Treasuries, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [31] Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of $40 billion in short - term Treasuries per month is positive for precious metals, industrial metals, and Chinese equity assets [34] - Due to the year - end settlement effect, the A - share market may fluctuate and adjust until the end of the year [35] - AI focuses on computing power and electricity, and semiconductor equipment ETFs and grid equipment ETFs are expected to be highly prosperous [38][40] - The US economy sliding towards stagflation and the Fed's restart of balance sheet expansion are strongly positive for gold, which is expected to hit a previous high [42] - The price of silver has reached a new high, mainly due to physical shortages and the remonetization of silver in the post - dollar era [45] - Global copper inventories are continuously shifting to the US, and there is a shortage outside the US. The demand for AI computing power has broken the supply - demand balance of copper, and copper prices are expected to have a major rally [47][50] - The surge in computing power has led to a surge in chip demand, and the semiconductor supply chain is expanding. As chip packaging is the main area of tin consumption, tin demand is expected to surge, and tin is expected to enter a shortage era [54] - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the accelerated inflow of international capital into China [57]