1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Slightly Strong" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the Israel-Iran conflict has temporarily ended, it may flare up again. In July, the downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. Both ports and production areas have slightly increased their inventories this week, and downstream demand has not significantly improved. With the restart of some Iranian plants, the bearish sentiment has been released. The market sentiment has turned positive, and the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger, with a reference range of 2360 - 2450 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 19 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell by 65 yuan/ton to 2465 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 382 lots to 431,300 lots, and short positions increased by 19,618 lots to 498,100 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 88.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 54.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% [2] - **Demand**: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 61,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The olefin operating rate is 87.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 84.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%; the acetic acid operating rate is 95.3%, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 48.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% [2] Market Logic - Geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations, along with supply - side changes, have led to a short - term positive market sentiment and a slightly stronger price trend for methanol [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The black sector showed overall strong performance today. The market's bullish sentiment was strong due to the emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction policy [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2509 closed at 843.5, a 3.56% increase compared to the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2509 closed at 1442.0, a 3.85% increase compared to the opening of the day session. At night, Jm2509 closed at 844.0, a 0.06% increase compared to the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1435.0, a 0.49% decrease compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the US, and a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. Vietnam has also agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [1] - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants nationwide was 59.72%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous period; the daily average output was 50.59 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons; the raw coal inventory was 312.17 tons, a decrease of 9.11 tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.98 tons, a decrease of 16.89 tons [1] - On July 2nd, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 10 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur coking clean coal with A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1180 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [1] - On July 2nd, the online auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market increased. For the medium - yang low - sulfur coking clean coal with A10.5, S0.8, G85, 0.8 tons were listed, with a starting price of 1030 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1128 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 25th. For the Liulin high - sulfur coking coal with A11, S1.85 - 2.0, G85, 3 tons were listed, with a starting price of 850 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 939 yuan/ton, a 43 - yuan increase compared to June 6th. For the Xiaoyi high - sulfur coking coal with A10.5, S3.0, G85, 3.5 tons were listed on the road, with a starting price of 810 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 843 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 26th [1] Market Logic - The black sector was strong today. The emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st led to strong bullish sentiment. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - At the critical node of the long - short game for coking coal and coke, the interpretation of relevant policies has a significant impact on sentiment [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on four major stock index futures contracts, suggesting a long position [2] - Recommend buying out - of - the - money long - term index call options [2] 2. Core View - The capital market's role as a multi - level "accelerator" and "stabilizer" in promoting consumption is becoming more prominent through a closed - loop policy design [1][2] - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market as the central financial commission promotes the construction of a unified national market and regulates disorderly low - price competition among enterprises [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On Wednesday, the main stock indices in the two markets showed divergent trends. Value - based indices were consolidating strongly, while growth - based indices were adjusting. The photovoltaic sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.37 trillion yuan, showing a contraction. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6309 points, down 64 points (-1.01%); the CSI 500 index closed at 5892 points, down 41 points (-0.70%); the SSE 300 index closed at 3943 points, up 1 point (0.02%); the SSE 50 index closed at 2722 points, up 4 points (0.18%) [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, steel ETF, photovoltaic leading ETF, building materials ETF, coal ETF, and new energy innovation ETF led the gains, while innovative drug ETF (Fuguo), aerospace ETF, and 5G communication ETF led the losses [1] - Among the sector indices in the two markets, the marine economy, general steel, photovoltaic equipment, cement, and BC battery indices led the gains, while the ground military equipment, components, military trade concept, communication equipment, and human brain engineering indices led the losses [1] - The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 300 index futures (IH) was 300 million yuan [1] Important News - The automotive industry's "involution - style" competition has led to a continuous 10% - 15% decline in parts procurement prices, deteriorating the operations of upstream suppliers and downstream dealers [1] - Bond ETFs have become an important tool in asset allocation, with their total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The prices of Chinese - made goods on Amazon in the US are rising faster than the overall US inflation rate, and tariffs are starting to impact US consumers [1] - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, and Germany's manufacturing PMI reaching a 34 - month high [1] - US JOLTS job openings in May were 7.769 million, higher than the expected 7.3 million, and the number of voluntary quits increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to continue its upward trend in July and may start to decline in the next month [2] - Hedge funds' net buying of bank stocks last week reached the highest level in nearly a decade, supported by expectations of banking regulatory relaxation and Fed rate cuts [2] - Morgan Stanley reported that the US tariff revenue in June reached an annualized 327 billion US dollars, equivalent to 1.1% of the US GDP [2] - The US Senate passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by a narrow margin of one vote [2] Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets showed divergent trends on Wednesday. The central financial commission is promoting the construction of a unified national market and regulating disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, highlighting the capital market's role in promoting consumption [1][2] Future Outlook - The domestic supply - demand imbalance in the photovoltaic glass market will improve as domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [2] - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December this year, and has lowered its terminal interest rate forecast [2] - Morgan Stanley said that technology giants hope to expand AI tools to the physical world through open - source, and China may take the lead in the "robot race" [2] - The global financial asset re - allocation trend of "de - Americanization" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares [2] - The central financial commission's efforts to promote the unified national market and regulate disorderly competition are expected to boost listed companies' performance, and the market is expected to evolve into an upward - trending market [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts, as growth - based indices have higher elasticity [2] - For stock index option trading, buy out - of - the - money long - term index call options as the market is expected to evolve into an upward - trending market [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range [3] - Egg: Low long [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the import corn auction continues, and the spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. In the long term, policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. The pricing logic is import substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. In the medium term, there is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. In the medium term, the supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Summary by Related Items Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated and consolidated. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.25% to 2363 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On July 2, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises were stable. The corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 to 209,951 hands. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 4, 305,964 tons of imported genetically - modified corn will be auctioned. On July 2, 38,000 tons of the planned 40,000 - ton corn auction were sold [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Import corn auctions continue, and the spot market is stable with a slight upward trend. Medium - term: The supply pattern is expected to tighten. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term: Maintain the range - trading idea. Short - term: Verify the upper pressure and find the lower support. The 2509 contract's 2420 pressure has been verified, and the short - term support is 2350 - 2360 [1]. Pig Market Review - The main pig futures contract rose sharply. The LH2509 contract rose 3.2% to 14,340 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 1.12% to 13,550 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the national average pig price was 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/jin. The early - morning pig price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. In May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million. At the end of April, the number of medium - and large - sized pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On July 2, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs was 0.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. On June 26, the average weekly slaughter weight was 125 kg, down 0.46 kg from the previous week. On July 2, the pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 375 to 450 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Short at high levels. Medium - term: Range trading. Short - term: Strengthen to test the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the long. The 2509 contract breaks through the first pressure of 14,000 - 14,100 and the second pressure of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract focuses on the pressure effect of 13,600 - 13,800 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated weakly. The JD2508 contract fell 0.67% to 3544 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.33% to 3678 yuan/500kg [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. The average price of old hens was 4.73 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. In May, the number of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in June was 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. On July 2, the egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 92 to 147 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. Medium - term: The supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the difference between long and short is large. It is recommended to watch more and trade less. The 08 contract runs in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and the lower support at 3480 - 3500. The 09 contract maintains the short - term long and long - term short trading idea. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [4].

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - The macro and global economy is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with the US economy showing signs of expansion, the euro - zone manufacturing stabilizing, and China's manufacturing also having positive developments [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - The US Senate passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by a narrow margin of 1 vote, and some Democratic senators criticized it as "robbing the poor to help the rich" [1] - In May, US JOLTS job openings were 7.769 million, higher than the expected 7.3 million, and the number of voluntary job - leavers increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million, indicating a tight labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the S&P 500 index will continue its upward trend in July and may start to decline next month, driven by improved liquidity, lower volatility, fading recession concerns, and seasonal factors [1] - Last week, the net buying of bank stocks by hedge funds reached the highest level in nearly a decade. Market expectations of banking regulatory relaxation and Fed rate - cut expectations are supporting bank stocks [1] - The price increase of Chinese - made goods sold on the US Amazon website has exceeded the overall US inflation rate, and tariffs are hitting US consumers [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that the US tariff revenue reached an astonishing level, with an annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion in June, equivalent to 1.1% of the US GDP [1] - The euro - zone manufacturing showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, and the German manufacturing PMI reaching a 34 - month high with new orders growing at a 39 - month high [1] - About one - third of Bank of Japan observers expect the next interest rate hike to be in January next year [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Treasury Secretary expects to sign a series of new trade agreements before July 9. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September [1] - The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition, and the photovoltaic glass industry has collectively cut production by 30% [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times. Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which promotes the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - Musk's Neuralink brain - machine interface has made a major technological breakthrough. Morgan Stanley believes that China may take the lead in the "robot race" due to its manufacturing foundation and policy support [1]

新华社北京7月1日电 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财 经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议,研 会议指出,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,基本要求是"五统一、一开 放",即统一市场基础制度、统一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统 一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场,持续扩大对内对外开放。会议强调, 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点,依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出;规范政府采 购和招标投标,加强对中标结果的公平性审查,规范地方招商引资,加强 招商引资信息披露;着力推动内外贸一体化发展,畅通出口转内销路径, 培育一批内外贸优质企业;持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动,健全有利于 市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系:引导干部树立和践行正 确政绩观,完善高质量发展考核体系和干部政绩考核评价体系。 数据来源:国家统计局,格林大华期货研究院整理 同2024年"924"政策预期推升股股票和期货市场多头情绪一样，新的会议精神再次被解读为供给侧改革2.0版的吹风。从广期所的碳酸 鯉、多晶硅、多晶硅到郑商所的纯碱、玻璃,再到大商所的焦煤焦 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the live hog futures rose strongly, with the 2509 contract reaching 14,300 yuan/ton, a 2.95% increase. The short - term hog price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, the 2509 contract is trading on the logic of repairing the discount; in the medium - term, there is still an expectation of an increase in hog supply in the second half of the year; in the long - term, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized this year if excluding the impact of diseases [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Reasons for the Rise - The diarrhea of piglets in some areas around the Spring Festival this year affected the mid - year hog supply [4] - Under policy guidance, group enterprises basically completed the phased weight reduction by mid - to late June, and the weight pressure was partially released [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, the regular slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms slowed down, and today's hog price increase expanded. As of June 30, the daily hog slaughter volume decreased by 25.8% compared with June 27, and on July 1, it decreased by 19.3% compared with June 27 [4] 2. Market Conditions - Today's national average hog price is 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day. Zhuochuang expects tomorrow's hog price to be stable with a slight upward trend, and the hog price in Henan to remain stable at 15 - 15.8 yuan/kg [4] 3. Future Outlook - Short - term: The support of the national average price of 14 yuan/kg is effective, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, the short - term slaughter volume has decreased, and the short - term hog price will fluctuate and strengthen. The 2509 contract is trading on the logic of repairing the discount [4] - Medium - term: The number of new - born piglets from February to April increased month - on - month, and the decline in the current slaughter weight is limited, so there is still an expectation of an increase in hog supply in the second half of the year [4] - Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year - on - year. If excluding the impact of diseases, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized this year [4] 4. Trading Strategies - Long - term: Short at high levels; Medium - term: Trade within a range; Short - term: The price is strengthening and testing the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the rise. The 2509 contract has broken through the first pressure level of 14,000 - 14,100 and is testing the second pressure level of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract should focus on the pressure effect at 13,600 - 13,800 [5]

格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 能源化工 2025年7月2日 能源化工研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格证号： F3085283 交易咨询证号： Z0019267 联系方式： wuzhiqiao@greendh .com 摘要： 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年7月2日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 纯苯期货上市前瞻 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 6月27日，中国证监会已同意大连商品交易所纯苯期货和期权注册 ，纯苯期货自2025年7月8日（星期二）上市交易，纯苯期货开展夜盘 交易。首批上市交易合约为BZ2603、BZ2604、BZ2605、BZ2606。 按照目前的供求关系，国内纯苯供减需增，但供应压力仍在于进 口维持高位水平（预计月均进口45万吨水平），静态基本面略好转。 下游五大需求（苯乙烯，己内酰胺，己二酸，苯胺和苯酚）中苯乙烯 和己内酰胺检修结束后产量恢复，将支撑纯苯价格；预计7-8月纯苯基 本面阶段性好转，库存去化但受制于高进口，去库斜率可能偏缓慢。 中长期看，芳烃调油驱动有限，原油消费旺季结束后或面临下行风险 ，纯苯基本 ...