Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is making a series of wrong policies and is starting to contract globally, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must believe in "significant rate cuts" and mortgage loan rates will further decline, and he previously asked to cut rates to 1% [1]. - The Bank of Japan is focusing on its subsequent policy path, needing to balance multiple goals [1]. - Trump's account plan is to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks, which could grow to about $5800 at 18 and about $600,000 at retirement, and over $300,000 at 18 with additional family investment [1]. - PJM's latest electricity supply auction will cost consumers $16.4 billion, with the daily cost per megawatt rising from $329.17 to $333.44 [1]. - The global platinum market will face a third - consecutive - year supply shortage in 2025, with a gap of 850,000 ounces and limited supply growth in the future [1]. - Hedge fund Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business due to asset price fluctuations [1]. - Early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years, and the absorbing demand from ETFs and institutions has faded [1]. - India has become the most active AI consumer market globally, but local startups face greater competition [1]. - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2]. - Some traders are betting on a Q1 rate - cut in the changing bond - option market [2]. - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending gap in the US [2]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury yield reached its highest since July 2007 [2]. - AI - driven investment will expand the credit market, with investment - grade bond issuance expected to reach $2.25 trillion [2]. - Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2]. - AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about economic slowdown [2].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate moderately upward. Traders are advised to hold long positions. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220. Key factors to monitor are the extent of port inventory reduction and the start - stop status of Iranian plants [1] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped by 6 yuan to 2166 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 25 yuan to 2155 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 9246 lots to 555,000 lots, and short positions increased by 6251 lots to 645,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 90.5%, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 62%, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China is 1218,800 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. East China's inventory decreased by 31,000 tons, while South China's inventory increased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a 10.86% increase [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 86,900 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 6.25% increase. The olefin operating rate is 89.4%, a 0.7% decrease; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, a 1.9% decrease; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.1%, a 5.4% decrease; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.5%, a 2.6% increase; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.5%, a 1.1% increase; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, a 0.8% decrease [1] - Macro: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' delayed report shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year has risen from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - Recently, Iran's 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant has shut down due to gas restrictions, and the 1.65 - million - ton Busher plant has shut down due to equipment issues, with an expected one - week maintenance. The second round of plant shutdowns in Iran has begun. This week, port inventory continued to decline while inland inventory increased, which is in line with market expectations. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry's bottle chip sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chip futures rose at night on Thursday, with both long and short positions decreasing. Supply and cost - profit indicators were mostly stable this week, exports increased in October, and international oil prices rose due to supply risks. The short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips rose 90 yuan to 5762 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 5675 yuan/ton (+10), and the price in South China was 5700 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1359 lots to 64,700 lots, and short positions decreased by 707 lots to 62,400 lots [3] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 333,600 tons, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 73.05%, both unchanged from the previous week. The production cost was 5184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the weekly production profit was - 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 523,100 tons, an increase of 55,300 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.3321 million tons [3] - Due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela and the possibility of new US sanctions on Russia, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars to 56.15 dollars/barrel (+0.38% week - on - week), ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.14 dollars to 59.82 dollars/barrel (+0.23% week - on - week), and China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 4.0 to 428.3 yuan/ton, and rose 0.3 to 428.6 yuan/ton at night [3] - The US November CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [3] Market Logic - Last week, bottle chip supply changed little, downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking, and the inventory accumulation in December increased. The expected commissioning of new devices has little impact on the market. Cost support is average, and the short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate. The reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5670 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All recommended investment stances for corn, live pigs, and eggs are "wait - and - see" [1][3] 2. Report's Core View - For corn, in the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to a mix of long and short factors, and the progress of farmers' grain sales should be monitored; in the medium - term, there is seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival after New Year's Day, and the upside of the spot price is limited, with a wide - range trading approach recommended; in the long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [1] - For live pigs, in the short - term, the approaching Winter Solstice boosts short - term stocking sentiment, but the upward space of pig prices is limited due to supply pressure; in the medium - term, the expected increase in supply before March next year restricts price increases, and the supply pressure may ease from April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before September next year and may weaken after September if sow inventory continues to decline [1][3] - For eggs, in the short - term, egg prices operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to downstream consumption and inventory changes; in the medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs has not been fully released, and the continuous upward momentum of the spot is limited; in the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space driven by chicken culling [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn 3.1.1. Market Review - Last night, the corn futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of the night - session close, the 2603 contract fell 0.27% to 2190 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2. Important Information - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in China were mainly weak and stable yesterday. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in North China was 2271 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The prices at north - south ports were slightly weaker and stable yesterday. The purchase price of second - grade corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the bulk grain transaction price at Shekou Port was 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - On December 18, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1163 lots to 53277 lots compared with the previous trading day [1] - On December 18, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 220 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - China's corn imports in November 2025 totaled 560,000 tons, the highest this year. The cumulative imports from January to November were 1.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.08%; the cumulative imports from October to November in the 2025/26 season were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.27% [1] 3.1.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to a mix of long and short factors, and the progress of farmers' grain sales should be monitored; in the medium - term, there is seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival after New Year's Day, and the upside of the spot price is limited. The auction of policy - sourced grains in the second quarter next year may form an effective supply; in the long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [1] 3.1.4. Trading Strategy - Adopt a range - trading approach in the medium - and long - term; currently, it is recommended to wait and see or focus on short - term trading. The support levels for the 2601 contract are 2200 - 2220, and those for the 2603 contract are 2180 - 2190 [1] Live Pigs 3.2.1. Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The 2603 contract fell 1.18% to 11325 yuan/ton [1] 3.2.2. Important Information - The national average price of live pigs was 11.7 yuan/kg yesterday, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig prices will rise and fall mixed this morning [1] - According to official data, the inventory of reproductive sows in October 2025 was 39.9 million, falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1] - The number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month from January to September this year (only decreased in July), indicating an increasing trend in live pig slaughter before March next year; the number of new - born piglets decreased month - on - month in October, and the supply pressure may ease from April next year [1] - As of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 124.47 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [1] - On December 18, the price difference between fat and standard live pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] - On December 18, the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 lots [1] 3.2.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, the approaching Winter Solstice boosts short - term stocking sentiment, but the upward space of pig prices is limited due to supply pressure; in the medium - term, the expected increase in supply before March next year restricts price increases, and the supply pressure may ease from April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before September next year and may weaken after September if sow inventory continues to decline [1][3] 3.2.4. Trading Strategy - The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic of spot trading, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipt quantity on the market; the 2603 contract's pressure has been verified and returns to range operation; the far - month contracts trade the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. If the sow inventory continues to decline, low - buying opportunities after September next year can be considered [3] - The pressure level for the 2601 contract is 11400, and the support level moves down to 11000; the pressure levels for the 2603 contract are 11500 - 11600, and the short - term support level returns to 11200; the pressure level for the 2605 contract is 12000, and the support level is 11800; the pressure levels for the 2607 contract are 12700 - 12800, and the support level is 12500; the pressure level for the 2609 contract is 13600, and the short - term support level is 13400. Attention should be paid to the direction after the range breakout [3] Eggs 3.3.1. Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 2602 contract fell 0.48% to 2916 yuan/500KG [3] 3.3.2. Important Information - The spot price of eggs was mainly stable with a slight increase yesterday. The average price in the main production areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and that in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - The inventory was slightly increased and stable yesterday. The average inventory in the national production link was 1.01 days, an increase of 0.01 days from the previous day, and the inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, unchanged from the previous day [3] - In terms of culled chickens, the average price of Hy - Line brown old hens in the mainstream market was 3.94 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. As of December 18, the weekly culling age of old hens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [3] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the inventory of laying hens in November was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 5.30%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in December is 1.345 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% [3] 3.3.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, egg prices operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to downstream consumption and inventory changes; in the medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs has not been fully released, and the continuous upward momentum of the spot is limited; in the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space driven by chicken culling [3] 3.3.4. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was continuously suggested to pay attention to the trading opportunities of the near - month contracts to collect the premium after the price increase. Currently, it is recommended to wait for the confirmation of inventory accumulation again and then consider short - selling opportunities for the near - month contracts. In the medium - and long - term, it is necessary to focus on whether the chicken culling behavior driven by low prices can continue and whether the culling intensity can start the actual capacity reduction, and then determine the trading direction for next year. Currently, it is difficult to effectively clear the capacity before the second quarter next year, and the supply pressure still exists. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the chicken culling situation in the first quarter [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures [1][2][3]. - In 2026, the A - share market's valuation is expected to rise further due to factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. The satellite and aerospace sectors led the gains. The trading volume in the two markets was 1.65 trillion yuan, showing a volume contraction during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4552 points, down 27 points or - 0.59%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2998 points, up 6 points or 0.23%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7100 points, down 36 points or - 0.52%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7272 points, down 16 points or - 0.22% [1]. - Among industry and thematic ETFs, satellite ETFs, general aviation ETF funds, CSI bank ETFs, coal ETFs, and aerospace ETFs led the gains, while battery ETFs, Gem new energy ETFs (Guotai), and 5G 50 ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, forestry, pharmaceutical commerce, aerospace equipment, coal mining, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the gains, while component, consumer electronics, battery, glass fiber, and power grid equipment indices led the losses [1]. - The margin funds in the stock index futures of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 6.6 billion, 3.2 billion, 3.0 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - A relevant official from the Central Financial Office stated that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, industrial transformation and upgrading will accelerate, and the concentration of scientific and technological and industrial innovation achievements will enter a stage of concentrated explosion. Through the linkage of investment and consumption and the coordination between the government and the market, there are fully conditions to promote the continuous growth of domestic demand next year [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Winnie Wu said that her view of the Chinese market has changed significantly. China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures, are regaining global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [1][2]. - The World Platinum Investment Council's (WPIC) research director Edward Sterck said that the global platinum market will face a third consecutive year of supply shortage in 2025, with an expected shortage of 850,000 ounces. In general, the platinum market supply is expected to remain in the range of 7.2 to 7.3 million ounces in the next few years, with limited growth space [1]. - Trump clearly stated that the next Federal Reserve Chairman must be someone who believes in "substantial interest rate cuts", and "mortgage loan interest rates will further decline". He believes that the next Federal Reserve Chairman should consult with him on interest rate setting [1]. - The focus of the Bank of Japan has shifted to the subsequent policy path. It needs to carefully balance multiple goals: retaining policy space by suggesting that interest rates are still below the neutral level (1% - 2.5%), avoiding overly hawkish communication that may push up government bond yields or overly dovish communication that may lead to excessive depreciation of the yen, and coordinating with the government that tends to stimulate the economy [1]. - Humanoid robots are accelerating their entry into factories. Guotai Haitong Securities pointed out that handling and quality inspection are the preferred commercialization paths, and the core bottleneck lies in the return on investment. To achieve a two - year payback period, the robot's selling price needs to be reduced to the level of 100,000 yuan. The market space for China's industrial scenarios is expected to exceed 48 billion yuan in 2035 [2]. - Amazon announced the reorganization of its artificial intelligence - related teams and the establishment of a new business unit, aiming to create a cutting - edge, multi - purpose artificial intelligence tool similar to ChatGPT [2]. - BofA said that with its low data cost and large and young Internet population, India has become the world's most active and highest - penetration AI consumer market. Telecom giants are accelerating penetration through free AI subscriptions, making India a key test field for technology companies to test "proxy AI", but local start - ups face greater competitive pressure [2]. - The "Trump Account" plan proposes to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks to accumulate wealth. Based on the S&P index's average annual growth rate of 10.5%, this fund may increase to about $5800 when the child is 18 years old and may reach about $600,000 at retirement; if the family makes additional annual investments, the account value may exceed $300,000 at 18 [2]. - Hedge fund giant Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business. Geopolitical turmoil, extreme weather, and Trump's trade policies have caused fluctuations in assets such as energy, metals, coffee, and oil, driving multi - strategy funds to invest billions of dollars in the commodity market [2]. - PJM, which operates the power grid covering 13 states and serving nearly one - fifth of the US population, said that its latest auction to ensure power supply will cost consumers $16.4 billion. The results announced this week show that the average daily cost of these power supplies has risen from $329.17 per megawatt to $333.44 [2]. - Blockchain data shows that early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years. The past 30 days have been one of the most intense selling periods for long - term holders in more than five years. Previously, this selling was mostly absorbed by newly launched ETF funds and institutional demand, but now this demand has subsided [2]. - Oracle's stock price has fallen to its lowest point since mid - June (below the 200 - day moving average), down 45% from its peak, the largest decline since August 2011, and its CDS has expanded to the level of the global financial crisis. It has become a representative of negative sentiment towards AI [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation and steadily invest in various types of assets, actively serving national development needs and better supporting the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [1][2][3]. - Zhongtai Securities said that the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2025. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major sources of incremental funds. The incremental funds from institutions in the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products will at least double compared with this year [2]. - More and more international funds are turning their attention to AI tracks outside the United States. China's technology sector, with its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is gradually becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - UBS Securities' China equity strategy analyst pointed out that in 2026, factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds will jointly promote the further increase of the A - share market's valuation [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market again. The AI strength, valuation attractiveness, and resilience of China have become a consensus. Foreign capital has shifted from passive inflows to expecting the return of active funds. China's technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [1][3]. - JPMorgan Chase believes that the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline, and it is optimistic about multiple positive factors in the Chinese market, including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3]. - Google's AI infrastructure director said that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the continuously rising demand for AI services [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and bought $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index to prevent the technical indicators from deteriorating. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. - Stock index options trading: The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, so it is advisable not to participate in stock index call options for the time being [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to two reasons: the market's expectation of supply contraction has increased after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights, and the previous day's market rumor that the resumption of production at Shixiaowo has encountered obstacles again, leading to the failure of the supply release expectation. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, with a gain of 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a correction after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Specific Information Mining Rights Cancellation - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau website recently released a notice to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Jiangxi Yifeng County Shiziling Mining Area lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. Among the 27 mining licenses, 17 are for ceramic clay mines, 7 are for limestone, and others include kaolin and quartzite. The expiration of these licenses has little impact on the lithium carbonate market supply, and previous similar announcements in Yichun have not significantly affected the market [5]. Price Fluctuation Reasons - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices after the announcement is due to market sentiment being affected by Jiangte's announcement and media reports, which increased the expectation of supply contraction, and the previous day's rumor of production resumption obstacles at Shixiaowo, which also contributed to the price increase [6]. Market Outlook - As the lc2601 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the short - term market is expected to experience high - level fluctuations followed by a correction. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued a market risk warning, and attention should also be paid to the weekly inventory data released on Thursday. If the de - stocking speed slows down or fails to meet expectations, market sentiment may decline [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to the market's increased expectation of supply contraction after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights and the disappointment of supply release expectations caused by the rumored resumption delay at Shixiawo. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. Also, be aware of policy risks from the exchange, weekly inventory data, and the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The supply situation of lithium carbonate is still uncertain, and there is a need to be vigilant about policy cooling while the market sentiment is high [1]. Company Announcement - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Yifeng County Lion Ridge lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. The expiration of these 27 mining licenses has little actual impact on the lithium carbonate market supply [5]. Market Analysis - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is caused by the market's expectation of supply contraction and the disappointment of supply release expectations. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected to experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, with the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. Risk Warnings and Suggestions - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a market risk warning. Attention should be paid to policy risks of margin adjustment and position limit by the exchange in case of continuous sharp rise. Also, pay attention to the weekly inventory data on Thursday, as a slower - than - expected de - stocking speed may lead to a decline in market sentiment. Be vigilant against the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for gold and silver in the non-ferrous and precious metals sector [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.53% at 982.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 0.86 tons to 1052.54 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16018.29 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 46%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [1] - The eurozone's November CPI increased 2.1% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.1%); November CPI decreased 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3% decrease) [1] - US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [1] Market Logic - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000 in November, higher than expected. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000 month - on - month (market expected a decrease of 25,000). The US unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, the highest in four years. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year changed little [1] - On December 17, the US dollar index rose and then fell, finally closing up 0.18% at 98.40. The silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months, and the COMEX silver inventory has been decreasing since October. Tight silver supply has driven silver prices to rise continuously. On December 17, COMEX gold rose slightly, and COMEX silver rose sharply to a new high [1] Trading Strategy - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1]

Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 28 | 元至 | 2172 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | 价格上涨 | 27 | 元至 | 2130 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 10697 | 手至 | 54.7 | 万手，空 | 头持仓减少 | 14518 | 手至 | 64.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.8%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 | 62%，环比-1.8%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 121.88 | 万吨，较上一期数据减少 | 1.56 | 万吨。 | 其中，华 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约全线高开，早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.63%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.10%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 468 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1898 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 1430 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.45%。 | | | | | 3、现券市场：周三银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日下行，2 年期国债到期 | | | | TL、T、 | 收益率下行 0. ...