Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the industry is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with continuously falling lithium carbonate prices. The recycling end's industry operating rate is generally low, and the proportion of recycling end output in total lithium carbonate output is expected to decline in 2025. The future production plans of recycling enterprises are greatly affected by scrap prices, and short - term capacity utilization will not increase significantly [2]. - With the improvement of power battery technology and extended battery life, the number of retired batteries is expected to gradually increase starting in 2027, and the arrival of the retirement wave may be postponed [2]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation by Document 136, energy storage demand has shifted from policy - driven to market - driven, and from cost - oriented to more focus on comprehensive performance, which is conducive to promoting product innovation in energy storage enterprises and the healthy development of the industry [2][8]. - The lithium carbonate industry has a high and fast acceptance of futures tools, with many enterprises conducting futures hedging and basis point pricing, and some excellent enterprises exploring option - embedded trading [3]. - All technical routes of solid - state batteries have different technical difficulties, and there are currently no good solutions, so the development of solid - state batteries requires a long - term perspective [3]. Company - Specific Summaries A Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The enterprise is engaged in the recycling of lithium iron phosphate waste batteries with a production capacity of 11,000 tons. Since April this year, the production line has been basically shut down due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices [5]. - The enterprise mainly purchases black powder as raw material, and the current spot market for black powder has weak trading. The yield of producing lithium carbonate from battery powder is about 92%, and from pole piece powder is about 95%. The sources of black powder are mainly in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Xinxiang, Henan [5]. - The cash processing cost of the wet - process production line is about 15,000 yuan/ton, with a current loss of 3,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton; the processing cost of the crushing production line is between 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton depending on local electricity prices, barely maintaining the break - even point [5]. - The future cost optimization space lies in the utilization of iron phosphate, enterprise scale, and the layout of the entire industrial chain by large - scale recycling enterprises [5]. - Currently, about 90% of lithium iron phosphate recycling production lines and 40% - 50% of ternary recycling production lines in the industry are shut down. It is expected that the recycling end's production capacity will increase year - on - year this year, but the actual output will decrease [6]. - The enterprise's methods to deal with the shortage of raw material supply are to develop new raw materials through technological advantages and cooperate with large cell and battery manufacturers [6]. - It is expected that the proportion of lithium extraction from recycling in lithium carbonate production will increase from 10% to 20% - 30% around 2027, but it is difficult for the share of lithium extraction from recycling to exceed 50% in 2030 [6]. B Enterprise - Battery and Materials - The company's business scope covers lithium mines, lithium carbonate production, lithium - battery materials, energy storage, and recycling. It has four lithium mine resources, and the Tong'an porcelain mine has a relatively high grade among domestic mica mines. The company plans to process 1.5% grade raw ore to 2.5% for subsequent lithium extraction to reduce lithium slag production [7]. - The enterprise plans a lithium carbonate production capacity of 30,000 tons/year. The first - phase 10,000 - ton capacity was officially put into production in July 2023, and the remaining 20,000 - ton capacity will be put into production after further cost reduction. The output in 2024 was about 6,000 tons, and it is expected to be 8,000 tons in 2025. 50% of the lithium ore comes from its own mines, and 50% from external sources. The enterprise plans to reduce production costs by extracting by - products rubidium and cesium [7]. - The enterprise has technical advantages in pole pieces and electrodes. Its lithium - battery business is mainly PACK, not involving cells. In terms of battery technology routes, nickel - hydrogen batteries have advantages in specific scenarios but are difficult to replace lithium - ion batteries as the mainstream. The enterprise believes that solid - state batteries still need time to be fully industrialized and is currently developing dry - electrode technology for solid - state batteries [7]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the independent energy storage power station has a development opportunity. The enterprise is actively expanding relevant businesses in Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and other regions [8]. C Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The initial annual production capacity of lithium carbonate of the enterprise is 4,000 tons, and it has under - construction production capacities of 65,000 tons of nickel phosphate, cobalt phosphate, and manganese phosphate, 15,000 tons of iron phosphate, and 12,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The first - phase of the new production base is under construction with a 15,000 - ton electric carbon production capacity, and the second and third phases are planned for 15,000 tons of electric carbon and lithium hydroxide production capacity, as well as a 100,000 - ton iron phosphate production capacity [10]. - The enterprise has its own innovative technology, and its products can be directly used for futures delivery, having a cost advantage compared with similar enterprises. Currently, due to over - capacity and the concentration of consumer waste batteries in traders, the raw material procurement cost has increased. The enterprise's production cost is showing a downward trend, but the space for further cost reduction is limited [10]. - The enterprise actively uses derivative tools to deal with the decline in lithium carbonate prices, is one of the first enterprises to participate in lithium carbonate futures delivery, and widely uses strategies such as basis trading and option - embedded trading [10]. - It is expected that the number of retired batteries will gradually increase starting in 2027. Currently, the recycling raw materials are still mainly factory waste. After the national policy to liberalize the import of overseas black powder on July 1, 2023, it is expected to increase the supply of waste materials for recycling enterprises [11]. - Due to intense competition in the cell industry and a significant decline in cell costs, there is no obvious advantage in battery echelon utilization, and the market prefers to directly purchase new batteries [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper broke through the three - month oscillation range of 77,400 - 79,500 on the night session of June 26th and during the day on June 27th, and continued to rise strongly, breaking through the 80,000 mark. It is expected to rise further and reach the previous high of 83,000 [4][7]. 3) Summary According to Related Logics - **Macroeconomic Factor**: The slowdown of the US economic growth, with the season - adjusted Q1 GDP at 0.5%, weaker than expected, has led to a continued downward trend of the US dollar index and increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, thus supporting the strengthening of copper prices [7]. - **Geopolitical Factor**: The cease - fire in the Israel - Iran war and the gradual easing of the Russia - Ukraine war, along with the lenient handling of US tariff policies, will bring a favorable external environment for copper demand [7]. - **Market Sentiment Factor**: According to the CFTC's weekly position report, long positions have been higher than short positions recently. Also, the long positions and trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been on the rise [7]. - **Long - term Demand Factor**: In the long - run, under the framework of global energy transformation, with a loose domestic macro - economic environment and increased structural investment, domestic investment in power equipment and big data centers is expected to increase, ensuring a positive trend in copper demand and an upward - oscillating copper price [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector is "slightly bullish with a tendency to fluctuate" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The national development and reform commission announced on June 26 that it will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy, with continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies. After the news of the easing of the Middle East situation faded, the winder all - A index rose for three consecutive days from Monday to Wednesday and then slightly pulled back on Thursday. Treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated downward in the morning, and slightly declined and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety performed slightly stronger, bottomed out in the afternoon and then rebounded. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Thursday was flat compared with the previous trading day, with the weighted average of DR001 at 1.37% and that of DR007 at 1.69%. In the spot bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.25 BP to 1.37%, the 5 - year fell 0.75 BP to 1.51%, the 10 - year fell 0.82 BP to 1.65%, and the 30 - year fell 1.30 BP to 1.85%. The national development and reform commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and implement a more aggressive equipment renewal loan interest subsidy policy [1] Market Logic - The continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies and the fading impact of the easing of the Middle East situation on the financial market led to the short - term horizontal fluctuation of the main varieties of treasury bond futures, and they may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - oriented investors should conduct band operations [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 于 | 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹主力收于 2973，上涨 0.10%；次主力收于 2978，上涨 0.17%。热卷主力收 3103，上涨 0.39%；次主力收于 3101，上涨 0.29%。夜盘继续收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 7 月下达。 2、欧亚经济委员会继续对华无缝钢管征收反倾销税。 3、中钢协：6 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.8 万吨，环比下降 0.5%。据此 | | | | | 估算，本旬全国日产粗钢 277 万吨，环比增长 1.2%。 4、6 月 26 日，人民币对美元即期汇率先后升破 7.17 和 7.16 关口，创下去年 11 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 短 线 震 | 月中旬以来的新高。美元指数一度跌破 97.0 关口，创 2022 年 2 月以来新低。 | | | | 荡 | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (including coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" for the market trend and "long (short)" for trading strategy [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, environmental inspections at coal mines have led to production cuts in many coal mines in Shanxi, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have carried out moderate replenishment, driving a phased improvement in the demand for some coal types. However, overall, during the seasonal off - peak season, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively loose, and the rise of coking coal and coke is regarded as a phased rebound [1] - Coking coal and coke have seen an increase in long - position holdings and an upward price movement, but the futures price has a significant premium over the warehouse - receipt cost. It is not recommended to chase the high price [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2509 closed at 819.5, up 1.86% from the previous trading day's close. The main coke contract J2509 closed at 1395.5, up 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, Jm2509 closed at 833.0, up 1.65% from the daily close, and J2509 closed at 1411.0, up 1.11% from the daily close [1] Important Information - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 82.5%, a decrease of 2.0% compared with the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.85 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons compared with the previous period. The raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons compared with the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with the previous period, and the clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a decrease of 361,000 tons compared with the previous period [1] - This week, the output of five major steel products was 880,990 tons, an increase of 12,480 tons compared with the previous week. The total steel inventory was 1.34003 million tons, an increase of 1,140 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 433,520 tons, an increase of 7,740 tons compared with the previous period, and the social inventory was 906,510 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons compared with the previous week [1] Market Logic - Recently, environmental inspections at coal mines have led to production cuts in many coal mines in Shanxi, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have carried out moderate replenishment, driving a phased improvement in the demand for some coal types. But overall, during the seasonal off - peak season, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively loose, and the rise of coking coal and coke is regarded as a phased rebound [1] Trading Strategy - The reason for the recommendation is that coking coal and coke have seen an increase in long - position holdings and an upward price movement, but the futures price has a significant premium over the warehouse - receipt cost. It is not recommended to chase the high price [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Hartnett believes global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to Eurasian markets [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market underwent a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, with the Bank ETF hitting a new high. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets, and global financial asset reallocation "de-Americanization" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The market is in a technical adjustment phase, and it's necessary to observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Thursday, the market had a minor volatile adjustment to repair technical indicators, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.58 trillion yuan, showing little change. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,247 points, down 28 points or -0.45%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5,838 points, down 24 points or -0.41%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3,946 points, down 14 points or -0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,738 points, down 9 points or -0.34%. Among industry and thematic ETFs, those with the highest gains were the Communication Equipment ETF, Cloud 50 ETF, Bank ETF Leader, Gold Stocks ETF, and GEM Artificial Intelligence ETF Southern, while those with the highest losses were the Securities ETF Leader, Innovative Drug ETF Hong Kong & Shanghai, and STAR 100 ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were the Ground Military Equipment, Tourism, Marine Economy, Military Trade Concept, and Military Informatization Indices, while those with the highest losses were the Medical Services, Passenger Vehicles, Securities, Lithography Machines, and Innovative Drug Indices. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, SSE 50, and index stock index futures saw net outflows of 5 billion, 3.3 billion, 3.1 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan respectively in the settled funds [1] **Important News** - Chinese Premier attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and delivered a speech, stating that the Chinese market continues to expand in scale and improve in quality, which will create incremental space for reversing the decline in international trade. China's continuous breakthroughs in innovation will inject new vitality into global development to overcome the lack of momentum [1] - The deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in this year will be allocated in July, and relevant parties will be coordinated to balance the use of funds to ensure the orderly implementation of consumer goods trade-in throughout the year [1] - According to data from the National Energy Administration, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the first five months of 2025 was about 198GW, while that in the first four months was 105GW. That is to say, the installed capacity in May alone reached 93GW, a year-on-year increase of 388% [1] - The Shenwan Macro team believes that there is a 3.3 trillion yuan gap in service industry investment, which stems from the gap between residents' service consumption and historical trends and the imbalance between supply and demand. With the growth of per capita GDP and population aging, consumption shows a "servitization" characteristic [1] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that in the future, there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of robot factories, all of which can be powered by NVIDIA's technology [1] - UBS warned that the current rally in US stocks is nearing its end: the indicator measuring real risk appetite has been weakening. Similar to the situation after a strong short squeeze, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by an average of 11% and 13% respectively within three months. The capital situation has further deteriorated, and retail investors, foreign investors, and pension funds are expected to continue selling, and corporate buybacks will also enter a quiet period [1] - Goldman Sachs and Barclays released reports stating that considering the easing of recession concerns, funds are selling European assets at the fastest pace in nearly a year and refocusing on the US. Nomura Securities found that a volatility-based trading strategy may attract hundreds of billions of quantitative funds to flow back to the US in the short term [2] - Trump said that the conflict between Israel and Iran may break out again, perhaps soon. He warned that if Iran restarts its nuclear program, the US will strike again [2] - From June 24th to 25th, the NATO Summit was held in The Hague, the Netherlands. In the joint statement after the meeting, the most important "achievement" was the agreement to increase military spending to 5% of GDP [2] - According to the latest media reports, if OPEC+ deems it necessary, Russia is willing to support another production increase at the next OPEC+ meeting. If approved by the government, the Russian oil industry is ready to increase production again in August [2] - Trump is considering announcing the candidate for the next Fed Chairman as early as this summer, much earlier than the traditional 3 - 4 month transition period [2] - Fed Chairman said in a Senate hearing that tariffs may cause a one-time increase in prices, but the more persistent inflation risk cannot be ignored. The Fed must take a cautious attitude to ensure price stability and healthy economic development [2] **Market Logic** - The market had a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. Beijing Business Daily published an article stating that the new high of bank stocks is different from the speculation of theme stocks. Although both have reached new highs in stock prices, bank stocks are supported by performance and dividends. The movement of bank stocks is more of a revaluation of value, which will not only prevent long-term funds from exiting but also attract off-market funds to buy. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si said that the overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is maintained [2] **Outlook for the Future Market** - The market had a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that in the future, there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of robot factories, all of which can be powered by NVIDIA's technology. A strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management pointed out that one of the current global long-term structural trends is technology, and China is in a leading position in many technology fields. Global investors are increasingly paying attention to China's innovation and leading position. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si said that the overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is maintained. Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Hartnett believes that global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to Eurasian markets. The "de-Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The Bank ETF hit a new high again, and funds continue to flow into high-dividend sectors. The market is in a technical adjustment phase, and it's necessary to observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement [2] **Trading Strategies** - Directional trading of stock index futures: The market is in a technical adjustment phase. Observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement, and pay attention to the resistance levels of the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,450 - 3,500 points [2] - Stock index option trading: The market is in a technical adjustment phase. Observe whether a trending upward movement will appear [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a short - term volatile state. The iron ore futures prices showed an upward trend on Thursday, but the main contract still faces strong pressure at 720 and has a support level at 690. The market needs to wait for better trading opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main iron ore contract closed at 705.5, up 0.64%, and the secondary main contract closed at 679.5, up 0.74%. [3] Important Information - The third - batch funds for the consumer goods trade - in program will be issued in July by the National Development and Reform Commission. - The Eurasian Economic Commission continues to impose anti - dumping duties on seamless steel pipes from China. [3] Market Logic - Spot prices of steel coils and rebar on Thursday showed mixed trends with average trading volume. In the futures market, coking coal led the rise, and the prices of finished steel products increased at the end of the session. - According to steel association data, this week, rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. Hot - rolled coil production and inventory slightly increased, while apparent demand decreased. - The arrival volume of iron ore this period increased. Iron ore shipments will continue to surge at the end of the month, which will impact the arrival volume in July. Attention should be paid to the hot - metal production data released at night. - Among the black commodities, the rise of coking coal may drive up other black commodities. Currently, the iron ore futures price is still within the volatile range. [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the right opportunity. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy is expected to run smoothly in Q2, but Q3 may face challenges due to changes in the external environment [85] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts [85] - The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year [85] - Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Review - **Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends**: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market has been advancing ahead of schedule, rising sharply until January 2025. After the central bank announced the suspension of open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then fell until mid - March, followed by a rebound. In early April, due to the US tariff news, prices rose, then consolidated. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then fluctuated narrowly. In June, with the decline in capital interest rates, prices rose slightly [7] - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends**: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lows in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. After the Spring Festival, rising capital interest rates and a strong stock market pushed bond yields up. Short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, then dropped rapidly in early April due to tariff news and stabilized later. The latest 10 - year yield is around 1.65% [10] - **Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes**: As of June 25, compared with the end of last year, the treasury bond spot yield curve showed a distorted flattening. The 2 - year yield rose 23 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year rose 10 basis points to 1.52%, the 10 - year dropped 3 basis points to 1.65%, and the 30 - year dropped 5 basis points to 1.86% [12] 2. Current Analysis - **Investment**: From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, and manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. Real estate development investment decreased by 10.7%. The issuance of "two - major" projects is approaching [16] - **Real Estate**: From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8%. In May, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5%. As of June 25, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6% year - on - year [18][21][23] - **Consumption**: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. The sales of household appliances, communication equipment and other categories increased significantly. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month, and consumer demand is accelerating its release [25][27][30] - **Service Industry**: In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in information technology, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries [32] - **Foreign Trade**: In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly [35][38] - **Industry**: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 95.9% [41][43] - **Employment**: In May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [46] - **Prices**: In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. The decline of the agricultural product wholesale price index slowed down in June, and gasoline prices increased, which may promote the rebound of consumer prices [49][52][56] - **Social Financing**: In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation. The net financing of government bonds increased significantly, while the increase in RMB loans to the real economy decreased year - on - year [61] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index declined after reaching a high in January. The US dollar against the RMB dropped to around 7.17 on June 25. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index showed a downward trend in the first half of the year [67] - **Interest Rate Spread**: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread mostly remained above 2.5%, which restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts to some extent [69] - **Fed's Policy**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year [71] - **Capital Interest Rate**: After the central bank cut interest rates on May 8, the market capital interest rate declined [73] - **Government Bond Financing**: As of June 25, the net financing of government bonds in June was 1408.8 billion yuan, and the total net financing in the first six months was 7.8 trillion yuan, much higher than that in the same period in 2024 [76] - **Treasury Bond Term Spread**: The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed from the end of last year to April and then rebounded slightly. The 30 - year and 10 - year spread fluctuated around 0.2% [80] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The Chinese economy may face challenges in the third quarter due to external environment changes The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May, China's fixed - asset investment growth was lower than market expectations, and the growth rates of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate investment were all lower than those in April. Consumption growth in May was significantly better than market expectations, but it may not be sustainable. Industrial production maintained stable and rapid growth in May. China's exports showed resilience in May. The Chinese economy is expected to operate steadily in the second quarter. There is uncertainty in global economic and trade relations, which may pose challenges to China's economic growth in the third quarter [83]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0% and the 4.0% growth from January to April. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42% year - on - year from January to May, down from 10.85% in January - April. Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to May, down from 5.8% in January - April. Manufacturing investment increased by 8.5% year - on - year from January to May, in line with market expectations but lower than the 8.8% growth in January - April. National real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year from January to May, more than the 10.3% decline in January - April [4]. - From January to May, equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with a contribution rate of 63.6% to the growth of total investment and driving total investment growth by 2.3 percentage points [6]. 2. Real Estate - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [9]. - In May, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [12]. - From June 1 - 25, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 260,000 square meters, a 6% year - on - year decrease [14]. - The national second - hand housing price is in a bottom - grinding state, and the decline rate this year is slower than last year [16]. 3. Consumption - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year [19]. - In May, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, and other categories had relatively large year - on - year increases. The retail sales of basic necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum [21]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month. The consumer goods replacement policy and the "618" e - commerce promotion activities accelerated the release of consumption demand. A total of 162 billion yuan of central funds have been allocated in the first and second quarters this year, and 138 billion yuan will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [24]. - From January to May, the total service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The retail sales of tourism consulting and leasing services, cultural and recreational services showed good growth, and catering revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year [26]. 4. Exports and Imports - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [32]. - In May, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 14.84% year - on - year, exports to the EU increased by 12.02% year - on - year, and exports to the US decreased by 34.52% year - on - year [35]. - In May, China's exports to regions other than the top five export destinations continued to grow at a high rate, with a year - on - year increase of 11.69% [38]. 5. Industrial Production - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 5.7% [41]. - In May, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.6% year - on - year [43]. - In May, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a 0.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [46]. 6. Employment - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [49]. - In May, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 14.9%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [52]. 7. Prices - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The year - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the decrease in energy prices [54][57]. - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline continuing for three consecutive months [67][68]. 8. Social Financing and Credit - In May, the scale of social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [72]. - In May, the RMB loans in the credit scope increased by 620 billion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 800 billion yuan [74]. - At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year - on - year increase, and the balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [76]. - At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [79].

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]