早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 外部因素继续缓和，周一两市主要指数冲高后有所回落。两市成交额 1.27 万亿元， 成交额继续减少，显示抛盘已趋于衰竭。中证 1000 指数收 5938 点，涨 76 点，涨 幅 1.30%；中证 500 指数收 5627 点，涨 45 点，涨幅 0.82%；沪深 300 指数收 3759 点，涨 8 点，涨幅 0.23%；上证 50 指数收 2628 点，涨 8 点，涨幅 0.33%。行业与 主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是黄金股 ETF、创新药 ETF 沪港深、汽车 ETF、有色 50ETF、 煤炭 ETF，跌幅居前的是科创芯片 50ETF、酒 ETF、家电 ETF 龙头。两市板块指数中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观 | | IF （强多） IH （强多） | 涨幅居前的是电子商力、贵金属、体 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）11 日悄然发布了更新税则，豁免了包含自动数据 | | | | | 处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体相关等类别商品的进口税率，不 | | | | | 受"对等关税"影响。 | | | | | 2、耶鲁大学预算实验室的数据，零售商正准备在两周内提高价格，10%的全面征税 | | | | | 将导致价格整体上涨 2.9%，"这相当于 18 个月的正常通胀在极短时间内发生"。 | | | | | 3、达利欧表示，在本周全球市场剧烈动荡之后，投资者仍处于"某种程度的创伤、 | | | | | 震惊或恐惧"之中。这对人们的心理以及对美国可靠性的态度产生了重大影响。 | | | | | 4、华尔街大佬 Peter Schiff 认为，特朗普关税不仅无效 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The mutual tariff measures between the US and China have increased inflation and recession expectations in the US, led to a significant decline in the US dollar index, and heightened the expectation of a global economic slowdown, causing large fluctuations in copper prices [2][3]. - These tariff policies have a substantial impact on domestic copper enterprises in terms of costs, profits, and market demand, and enterprises need to actively respond [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact Analysis of Mutual Tariff Measures on Copper Enterprises - **Cost Aspect** - Raw material cost fluctuations: US tariff hikes on copper products or semi - finished products may affect global copper trade flows, causing shortages and price fluctuations in other regions, and increasing the raw material procurement costs of Chinese copper processing enterprises. Further tariff hikes on copper concentrates may raise international prices and increase import costs for Chinese enterprises [4]. - Increased transportation and logistics costs: Higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainties may lead to changes in transportation routes, longer transportation times, and more complex logistics, increasing the transportation and logistics costs of copper processing enterprises [4]. - **Market Demand Aspect** - Shrinking international market demand: US tariff increases will make Chinese copper products less competitive in the US market, leading to reduced orders and a weakened global demand for copper products due to the expected global economic recession [5]. - Intensified domestic market competition: With export difficulties, some copper processing enterprises may turn to the domestic market, intensifying competition and compressing profit margins [5]. - **Enterprise Profit Aspect** - Short - term profit decline: Under the dual pressure of rising costs and shrinking market demand, the short - term profits of copper processing enterprises may be significantly affected, and there may be a decline in gross and net profit margins or even losses [6]. How Copper Enterprises Can Absorb and Respond to the Adverse Effects of Mutual Tariff Measures - Promote technological upgrading and product structure optimization: Copper processing enterprises will increase R & D investment to develop high - value - added and high - performance copper alloy materials and products to enhance competitiveness [7]. - Accelerate industrial chain integration and layout adjustment: Some enterprises may integrate the industrial chain, strengthen cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises, and consider setting up overseas production bases to bypass US tariff barriers [8]. Impact Analysis of Mutual Tariff Measures on Copper Prices - The US tariff policy exacerbates global trade tensions, increasing the possibility of economic stagnation or recession, which will weaken global demand for copper and put pressure on copper prices. However, China may adopt active fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand, which will support copper prices [9]. How Copper Enterprises Can Respond to the Risk of Sharp Price Declines - Upstream enterprises in the copper industry chain can use derivatives to lock in inventory value in the short term, such as selling futures and buying put options [10]. - Downstream enterprises can adjust the hedging ratio moderately on the basis of normal raw material price locking and replenish the hedging volume after the risk of global recession eases [10]. - The important support levels for copper prices are around 7850 - 8100 for LME copper and 68000 - 70500 for SHFE copper main contract [10].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 父易俗询贷俗: 200192 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 4 元/吨至 2397 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 55 元/吨至 2520 元/吨。多头持仓减少 25484 手至 28.05 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 减少 24959 手至 29.29 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.24%，环比上涨 3.5%。海外甲醇开工率 75.09%， | | | | | 环比上涨 2.34%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 56.98 万吨，较上一期数据减少 4.63 ...

EIA原油周度数据报告 格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. 2025年4月10日 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 36,000- 30,000 24,000 18,000- 01-09 01-30 02-20 03-12 04-02 04-23 05-14 06-04 06-25 07-16 08-06 08-27 09-17 10-08 10-29 11-19 12-10 -2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 == 2025 数据来源:Wind 美国馏分油库存 十榜 170,000- 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 01-09 08-20 09-17 11-12 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 - 2025 2021 数据来源:Wind 美国战略石油库存 干横 手権 1,360,000- 700,000- 650,00 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年4月10日 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 3月通胀环比下滑 摘要 3月份全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比下降0.1%，符合市场预期。 1-3月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%，与1-2月的平均 数相同。居民消费价格水平一季度总体继续维持在较低位置。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 3月CPI环比下降0.4%，前值环比下降0.2%。3月食品价格环比下 降1.4%，前值环比下降0.5%。3月非食品价格环比下降0.2%，前值环 比下降0.1%；3月消费品价格环比下降0.4%，前值环比持平；3月服 务价格环比下降0.4%，环比下降0.5%。3月食品类价格带动CPI环比 下行较多。居住和医疗保健价格今年前三个月环比连续持平。 3月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.5%，市场预 期下降2.2%，前值下降2.2%。3月生产资料价格下降2.8%，前值下降 2.5%。其中，采掘工业价格下降8.3%，前值下降6.3%；原材料工业 价格下降2.4%，前值下降1.5%；加工工业价格下降2.6%，前值下降2 .7%。3月煤炭开采和洗选业同比下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the current turmoil in the global financial market, the upward trend of the global economy has not changed substantially. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy is less than the nominal figure, China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the current stock market sell - off may turn into a longer - lasting cyclical bear market as the risk of economic recession rises. A cyclical bear market usually lasts about two years and takes five years to recover [1] - The continuous slump in the US Treasury market signals a serious systemic risk, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis similar to that in March 2020 [1] - The yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds has risen by 56 basis points in less than three trading days since last Friday, likely due to forced liquidation [1] - Nomura's Ryan Plantz warns that the US Treasury market is experiencing large - scale unwinding and a liquidity vacuum [1] - High - risk leveraged ETFs have suffered a historic collapse, losing over $25 billion in two trading days. The semiconductor and technology stock ETFs have been hit hard, with a quadruple - leveraged semiconductor ETF in Ireland plunging 59.1% in two days [1] - US stocks have lost over $10 trillion in three days, the US Treasury yield has soared, and the market panic index VIX has reached a post - pandemic high. Blackstone believes that tariff policies will keep interest rates and long - term bond yields high [1] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a "once - in - a - lifetime" systemic collapse of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order. Tariff issues reflect global imbalances in capital and trade [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that hedge funds have sold stocks worth $375 billion [1] Global Economic Logic - The substantial increase in US tariffs has less real impact on the global economy than the nominal figure due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity. AI humanoid robots may enter mass production in 2025 [1]

市场快讯 -- 关税再加码恐慌情绪不减,原油大幅下跌 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 研究员:十琛 联系方式: wangchen@greendh.com ale purchase of U.S. LNG, their joint venture in Pipeline, and payment for the big time Military Protection South Korea. They began these Military payments during m Billions of Dollars, but Sleepy Joe Biden, for reasons unkni terminated the deal. That was a shocker to all In any event. confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries. Thei TEAM is on a plane heading to the U.S., and things are looking good. a ...

Morning session notice | 支出强度、加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张空 | | --- | | 间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费，加快落实既定政策，并适时出台一批储备政策； | | 以实实在在的政策措施坚决稳住资本市场，稳定市场信心，相关预案政策将陆续出 | | 台。周二国内股票指数万得全 A 止跌反弹，国债期货回调，股债跷跷板再现。周二 | | 资金市场短期利率较上一交易日维持平稳。短期国债期货或继续宽幅震荡。 | | 【交易策略】 | | 多头持仓，交易型投资波段操作。 | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约开盘全线低开，早盘小幅上攻后震荡回落，午后一度反弹， 临近尾盘在股指上攻的同时国债期货再度回落，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合 | | | | | 约 TL2506 下跌 0.54%，10 年期 T2506 下跌 0.17%，5 年期 TF2506 下跌 0.15%，2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “long” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the impact of trade policies. The substantial impact on the global economy is lower than the tariff figures due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, and the European manufacturing industry is improving. AI is at a stage of low - cost, large - scale application, and local deployment, which will enhance global productivity, and AI humanoid robots are expected to enter the mass - production era in 2025 [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Important Information - Market expects the probability of the ECB cutting interest rates on April 17 to rise from 70% to 90%, with two to three more cuts expected this year. Trump's tariff policy reignites deflation concerns in the eurozone [1] - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds soars by 19 basis points, indicating that hedge funds are reducing leverage and investors are turning to cash to avoid market volatility [1] - Economists believe that inflation is the key issue, and the Fed will not intervene in the short term. It will wait for economic data to reflect the impact of tariffs, which may take months [1] - The US Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs effective on the 9th, representing millions of US businesses [1] - Trump rejects the EU's “zero - for - zero” tariff proposal on cars and industrial products and demands the EU buy $350 billion of US energy for tariff relief, which may benefit US LNG producers [1] - The US plans to raise the tariff rate on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45%. The risk of a US recession is “significant,” and Trump's trade war is harming the US and global economies [1] - Larry Fink warns that the US economy is weakening, most CEOs think the US is in recession, the US stock market may fall 20%, and he questions the expectation of multiple interest - rate cuts this year, suggesting a possible Fed rate hike [1]