Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is in a period of gaming over US copper tariffs, with a high bearish sentiment. Along with the correction after the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, the market trend is bearish. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is pressured by the 5 - day moving average above. - In the medium - to - long - term, after the raw material inventory of smelters is depleted, there may be an increase in maintenance of production capacity. The market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and there may be an oversold rebound after the sentiment is digested. The supply is loose in the short - term due to the tariff implementation and tight in the medium - to - long - term. The copper consumption structure may change due to trade uncertainties and the 50% US copper tariff, affecting the apparent copper consumption [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market rumors of possible exemption of Chilean copper tariffs led to a sharp decline in US copper prices, while the impact on Shanghai and London copper was small. Sino - US economic and trade talks started in Stockholm, Sweden. - In the short - term, the supply is affected by the tariff implementation and is loose, but it is tight in the medium - to - long - term. After the copper tariff is implemented, more copper concentrates may be transferred to China. - Recently, with the decline in copper concentrate imports and high operating loads of domestic smelters, the inventory of refined copper concentrates has been continuously depleted. - The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and stabilized. Smelters can currently rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and most smelters have raw material reserves, so the production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant depletion of raw material inventory [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened high, rose, and then fluctuated downward, closing at 78,840 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,096 to 115,164 lots, and the short positions decreased by 930 to 115,790 lots. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 85 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 0 yuan/ton. On July 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,830/ton, and the spot premium was - $47/ton [4]. Supply Side As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.73/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 18,100 tons, an increase of 251 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 127,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 250,800 short tons, an increase of 2,184 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - **Spot**: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]

重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、豆油、原油、螺纹 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.60% 贵金属, 28.03% 油脂油料, 12.08% 煤焦钢矿, 15.55% 能源, 3.29% 化工, 11.93% 谷物, 1.15% 农副产品, 3.19% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 有色, 19.23% 软商品, 2.95% 早盘速递 2025/7/29 热点资讯 1、当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。这是继瑞士日内瓦经贸会谈达成一系列重要共 识、英国伦敦经贸会谈确立伦敦框架后，中美双方再次就经贸问题举行面对面磋商，旨在将两国元首重要共识转化为具体政策 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic industrial product futures market experienced a significant correction, while international oil prices rose, and international precious metal and London base metal futures mostly declined. The A - share market was strong, and overseas markets had various developments including geopolitical events and policy - related changes [2][3][26] - Different industries had their own trends, such as the paper industry's "anti - involution" initiative, and the AI industry's large - scale project investment and policy support [10][32] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic industrial product futures: Six major varieties' main contracts, including coking coal, glass, etc., hit the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties like alumina and polysilicon fell more than 3%. The black - series generally declined, with coking coal down 10.25% and coke down 3.79% [2] - International oil prices: U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil main contracts rose 2.79% and 2.87% respectively, due to the U.S. - EU trade agreement and OPEC+ production increase [2] - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold and silver futures fell 0.65% and 0.09% respectively, as the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia reduced safe - haven demand [2] - London base metals: Most closed down, with LME tin, zinc, nickel, and copper falling to varying degrees, affected by the Fed's policy and Sino - U.S. consultations [3] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - A market supervision development planning symposium required promoting the domestic market, improving market supervision systems, and cracking down on unfair competition [6] - China hoped the U.S. would cooperate to promote Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations [6] - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) dropped 3.5% [7] - Trump planned to shorten the time for Russia to agree to a Ukraine cease - fire [7] - Sino - U.S. economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm [8] Energy and Chemical Futures - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10] - The photovoltaic glass industry's inventory was expected to drop below 30 days by the end of July [13] - Jiangsu styrene port inventory increased, and it was expected to rise slightly [13] - OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged members to comply with quotas [13] Metal Futures - A national industrial and information technology meeting emphasized industry governance and standard construction [15] - Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland decreased in June [16] - A Reuters survey predicted gold and silver prices for 2025 and 2026 [16] Black - Series Futures - The National Energy Administration aimed to promote a stable energy market [20] - Coking plants and steel mills adjusted coke prices [20] - Iron ore arrivals and shipments had different trends [20] Agricultural Product Futures - Domestic soybean crushing volume was high and expected to remain so [22] - Brazil's second - crop corn harvest was behind last year but progressing well [22] - U.S. soybean export inspection volume and crop growth rates were reported [24] Financial Markets Financial - A - share major indices rose, with a turnover of 1.77 trillion yuan. Hong Kong's stock market had mixed performance, and the HKEX would adjust the minimum tick size [26] - Goldman Sachs raised the target for the MSCI China Index [27] - A - share market financing balance reached a four - month high, and many companies were surveyed by institutions [30] - A - share companies' listing in Hong Kong accelerated [31] Industry - The 2025 World AI Conference had large - scale project procurement and investment [32] - Shanghai introduced policies and funds for the AI industry [32] - Shanghai planned to expand autonomous driving test areas [32] - The paper industry issued an "anti - involution" initiative [35] Overseas - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [36] - Trump proposed possible import tariffs and was disappointed with Putin [37] - The U.S. Treasury increased borrowing estimates [37] - EU - U.S. trade agreement details needed discussion [37] - The European Central Bank was cautious about reducing borrowing costs [38] - Germany planned a large - scale budget investment [39] International Stock Markets - U.S. major indices had mixed performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. European indices fell [42] - Hedge funds sold tech stocks rapidly [42] Commodities - Similar to the overnight night - market trends, domestic industrial product futures corrected, oil prices rose, precious metals and base metals mostly declined [43] - Oil traders expected OPEC+ to increase production, and Saudi might raise oil prices [46] Bonds - Domestic bond yields generally declined, and some institutions issued panda bonds [47][48] - U.S. bond yields had different trends affected by various factors [48] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar declined, and the U.S. dollar index rose [51]

冠通期货研究咨询部 通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货每月核心策略推荐 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号： F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 宏观 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 2 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 石油化工 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 第 4 页 4 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 铜 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 尿素 | 部 | | | --- | --- | | 询 | | | 咨 | | | 究 | | | 研 | | | 货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies [4][9][10] - Asphalt: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading [4][60][62] - PVC: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][112][113] - L&PP: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][154][155] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. OPEC+ will increase production in August and September. Although in the peak season, demand will weaken over time, causing prices to face pressure in August [9] - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease in August, but downstream demand will be affected by funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. The potential increase in Venezuelan diluted asphalt raw materials may lead to a sideways movement [61] - PVC: Upstream calcium carbide prices are weak. Supply is still at a relatively high level, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline with short - selling opportunities [112] - L&PP: August is the traditional maintenance season, but production remains high due to new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve. It is expected to move sideways [154] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Prices rose in July, affected by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production decisions, and Saudi price adjustments [12] - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: WTI non - commercial net long positions declined in July, and Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts decreased [16] - **Production**: OPEC production increased in June, and OPEC+ will raise production in August and September. US production decreased in the week of July 18 [20] - **Drilling Rigs**: US oil drilling rigs decreased in July [24] - **US Imports and Exports**: US crude imports decreased, and exports increased in the week of July 18 [28] - **China's Processing and Imports**: China's crude processing and imports increased in June [32] - **US Economic Data**: US CPI rose in June, and the European Central Bank maintained interest rates [36] - **Crack Spreads**: US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased in July [40] - **US Demand**: US gasoline demand increased, and diesel demand decreased in the latest data [45] - **Inventory**: US crude, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week of July 18 [49][53] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Houthi rebels upgraded their maritime blockade, and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation is back on track [55] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The asphalt/ crude ratio decreased in July, and the basis declined [69][73] - **Production and Capacity**: Asphalt production decreased in June, and the expected production in August will decline slightly [61][81] - **Consumption and Shipment**: Apparent consumption increased in May, and the national shipment increased in the week of July 25 [85] - **Profit and开工率**: The开工率 decreased at the end of July, and the spot - end profit loss in Shandong expanded [89] - **Imports and Exports**: No detailed analysis of the trend was provided in the report [93][96] - **Downstream Situation**: Road transport investment increased in the first half of 2025, and the asphalt downstream开工率 increased in the week of July 25 [101][106] PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the report [114] - **Upstream Situation**: Calcium carbide prices fell in July, with slightly improved profitability, and semi - coke prices and profitability decreased [121] - **Production and开工率**: PVC production decreased slightly in June, and the开工率 decreased in the week of July 25 [125][129] - **Imports and Exports**: Imports increased in June, exports decreased but remained high, and anti - dumping tax delays may stimulate exports [137] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate is still in adjustment, with continued year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas in the first half of 2025 [141] - **下游开工率**: PVC下游开工率 increased slightly in the week of July 25 but remained at a low level [144] - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory increased in the week of July 24 [148] Polyolefins (L&PP) - **Market Review**: The basis of plastics and PP decreased, falling to a low level [166][170] - **Production and开工率**: PE and PP production were at high levels in June, and the开工率 increased recently [175][182][186] - **Imports and Exports**: PE and PP imports decreased in June, and exports were at high levels. Net imports are expected to decline [192][199] - **下游情况**: Plastic product production increased in the first half of 2025, and exports turned positive in June. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP decreased slightly in the week of July 25 [203][207] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased on July 25 but remained at a relatively high level [211] - **Profit**: Coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased in July, and coal - based PP remained profitable [216]

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货-2025年8月 铜月度报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点—沪铜 ➢ 宏观方面：7月期间，海外美联储降息问题摇摆不定，鲍威尔任职不确定性不断受质疑，另外美国贸易关税问题再度席卷重来，同时市 场预期依旧的铜关税以50%最终落地，纽约铜大幅拉涨而其他地区铜下挫。国内方面，反内卷举措不断升温，工信部在国新办新闻发布 会上表示，石化、有色金属、新能源等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，国内大宗商品均出现不同幅度的上行。 ➢ 供给方面：截至2025年6月，铜矿石及其精矿进口数据234.97万吨，环比上月减少4.5万吨左右，预计后续铜关税落地后，铜精矿或向国 内转移增多，届时预计铜精矿将增多。随着铜精矿进口数量的下降，及国内冶炼厂高开工负荷，精铜矿库 ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货-2025年8月 尿素月度报告 制作日期：2025年7月28日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 观点： 核心观点 供应端：按照目前日均产量测算，7月份产量预计在603万吨，高于往年同期水平。进入季节性检修旺季，尿素日产近期波动位于20万吨以 下的水平，预计8月份尿素产量将环比下降，其中煤头装置的产量预计变动幅度大，同时近期煤炭价格受反内卷举措影响大，成本端给尿素 带来一定支撑。 需求端：即将进入8月农需空档期，近日玉米肥迎来收尾，复合肥工厂处于秋季肥初级阶段，订单以预收款为主，成品库存不断累积，目前 对原料端的准备比较弹性，尿素已备肥近四成，工厂开工负荷预计继续增加，但秋季复合肥以高磷复合肥为主，后续增量有限。 库存端：7月份尿素库存不断去化，近期去化幅度放缓，但同比去年依然偏高。目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on July 28, 2025, showed a mixed performance with most main contracts falling, and different varieties had their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their trends [7]. - For various commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies (anti - involution, trade policies), and macro - economic situations (tariffs, interest rate expectations). Each commodity is expected to have different trends, including oscillation, weakening, or potential rebounds [3][5][10] Variety - Specific Summaries 1. Soybean Oil - Today, the main 09 contract of soybean oil opened at 8160 yuan/ton and closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. It has been oscillating in the 8050 - 8160 yuan/ton range for 3 days, with weakening upward momentum. The supply is abundant as US soybeans are growing well and domestic soybean crushing volume is high, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and one can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to US weather in August and US - EU trade negotiations [3]. 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, hitting the daily limit. Spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Supply has little change, and inventory is being transferred downstream. With the fourth round of coke price increases expected and strong downstream demand, the sharp rebound was due to anti - involution expectations and demand from hydropower projects. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should operate cautiously and watch for policy support [5]. 3. Copper (Shanghai Copper) - The copper market showed a weakening trend today. As of June 2025, copper ore imports decreased, and the inventory of refined copper ore is decreasing. Although TC/RC fees are negative, smelters' production enthusiasm is okay. The apparent consumption of copper is at a high level, but future consumption may be affected by trade policies. With overseas tariffs about to be implemented and the Fed's interest - rate decision in focus, the domestic market is supported by policies. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the tariff implementation next month [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and high, hitting the daily limit. The average price increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the production in June increased. The price of spodumene supports the lower price, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should watch the production capacity and output of lithium salt plants and mines [11][12]. 5. Crude Oil - Crude oil is in the seasonal peak travel season, with US inventories at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production in August. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. With sanctions on Russian oil and potential impacts on supply, and the downstream in the peak season, the crude oil price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy in September [13]. 6. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply decreased as the start - up rate dropped last week, and the planned production in August will decrease. The downstream start - up rate mostly increased, but was still restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio decreased. With potential increases in raw material supply and upcoming policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate [14][15]. 7. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also dropped due to new maintenance. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [16]. 8. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased with the restart of some plants, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and the off - season for some downstream products, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17][18]. 9. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is still low. The export situation is general, and the inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment, and the demand has not improved substantially. With potential policies, the PVC price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 10. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal showed a weakening trend today, with a 1.16% decline. The supply is abundant as the domestic soybean crushing volume is high and the production of soybean meal exceeds demand, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand is expected to weaken due to policies. With the weakening of US soybeans, the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, import costs, and oil - mill crushing [21]. 11. Rebar - The main 2510 contract of rebar decreased by 2.05% today. The short - term trend is bearish, while the long - term pattern is still in a recovery adjustment. The real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rallies, and hedging enterprises can gradually establish short - hedging positions. Attention should be paid to macro data and steel - mill production cuts [22]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - The main 2510 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.30% today. The short - term upward momentum is weak, and the long - term trend is in a recovery. The demand from real - estate and infrastructure is limited, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rebounds, and hedging enterprises with inventory pressure can increase short - hedging positions [24]. 13. Urea - The urea price decreased by more than 3% today. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory reduction slowed down, indicating poor terminal demand. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. The market is expected to be weak and oscillate in the medium term, but there may be rebounds due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [25].