Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].

制作日期：2025 年 7 月 31 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走震荡下行，尾盘收跌 2%。市场成交活跃度不高，现货价 格稳中下降，工厂暂时待发充足，现货报价暂时无太大下行空间。基本面来 看，供应端维稳，今日新疆塔石化临时检修，大约进行一年左右，河南有装置 有检修计划，其他地区基本正常。需求端，主交割区农业需求追肥结束，下游 承接以工业拿货为主，三聚氰胺本期开工负荷下行，正值终端淡季，天气高温 多雨限制户外作业。复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计本月将持续上行，秋 季肥生产期间，对尿素增量有限，因其以高磷复合肥为主，内需目前刚需为 主，无拉涨动能。近期宏观情绪扰动多，重大会议后市场情绪有降温，大宗商 品普遍收跌，尿素方面出口带来的需求增加目前在盘面基本兑现完成，后续配 额不变的情况下影响相对较小，市场情绪缓和后，盘面震荡为主，目前主力临 近交割月，9-1 价差已至历史低点。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 吨低开低走，最终收于 1714 元/吨，收 成一根阴线，涨跌-2.00%，持仓量 141557 手（-5600 手）。前二十名主力持仓席 位来看，多头-529 手，空头-41 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - material - intensive finished products starting from August 1. The tariff excludes upstream copper raw materials. The scope is lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. The copper market may return to the fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. The short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton. Although the Sino - US tariff talks are optimistic, there are still uncertain expectations restricting the upside space [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner. The tariff policy on copper products was announced, and the scope was narrower than expected, causing the market to give up previous gains. The domestic TC/RC fees are negative but have stopped falling. Smelters can still maintain production enthusiasm for now, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The tariff on semi - finished copper may affect export demand [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in a volatile manner, closing at 78,040 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 4,229 to 116,273 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,199 to 114,588 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 30, 2025, the LME official price was 9,736 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,600 tons, a decrease of 351 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138,200 tons, a slight increase of 1,350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 255,900 short tons, an increase of 2,517 short tons from the previous period [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report presents the July 2025 China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released on July 31 by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing [1] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [2] - Large - scale enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises had a PMI of 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises had a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] - Among the five sub - indices of manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [2] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production; the new order index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, meaning a continued decrease in the inventory of major raw materials; the employment index was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight improvement in employment sentiment; the supplier delivery time index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times [2] Group 3: Non - manufacturing PMI - In July, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point [3] - The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points; the service industry business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [3] - Industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, and culture, sports, and entertainment were in the high - prosperity range above 60.0%, while the real estate and resident service industries were below the critical point [3] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI - In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business production and operation activities in China maintained an expansion trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, including resolving local government debt risks, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promoting reforms [2]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, stressing the need to adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, boost consumption, and promote economic circulation [2]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao mentioned that under the guidance of the two heads of state, China and the US have formed relevant consensuses and frameworks in the economic and trade field, and the two teams held talks in Stockholm [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed a 5 - day trading ban on a client for exceeding the daily trading limit in the container shipping index (European line) futures contract on July 30 [3]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut, and Powell avoiding guidance on a September rate cut [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Glass, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and synthetic rubber [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals 27.23%, oilseeds 11.99%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.03%, energy 3.39%, chemicals 11.71%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.87% [4] 3. Sector Position - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.17 | 4.97 | 7.88 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 3.96 | 5.01 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.02 | 5.47 | 5.50 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.65 | 6.75 | 10.29 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.12 | 2.55 | 8.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.36 | 4.59 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | 0.19 | 1.47 | 21.86 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.05 | 0.41 | 1.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.01 | 4.29 | 11.79 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Futures | 0.15 | - 0.55 | - 0.57 | | | 5 - year Treasury Futures | 0.08 | - 0.50 | - 0.85 | | | 2 - year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | - 0.16 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.92 | 3.11 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.57 | 8.15 | - 2.25 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.53 | - 0.82 | 24.80 | | | LME Copper | - 0.69 | - 1.50 | 10.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.56 | 2.17 | 16.29 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 1.06 | 3.30 | - 7.85 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 4.48 | - 7.90 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and promote the construction of a unified national market [4]. - The global financial market shows complex fluctuations, affected by factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply - demand changes, and policy adjustments [2][24][50]. - The U.S. government's tariff policies have a significant impact on the international trade and financial markets [7][15][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures main contracts declined. Glass and coking coal dropped over 4%, soda ash fell over 3%, and asphalt rose nearly 1% [2]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures dropped 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [2]. - Oil prices: Geopolitical tensions and supply tightening pushed up oil prices. U.S. crude oil main contract rose 1.57% to $70.30 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.49% to $72.75 per barrel [2]. - London base metals: Most London base metals declined, including LME nickel, lead, and tin [2]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's policy: The Politburo meeting emphasized risk prevention, policy implementation, and market reform. The Central Committee also held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages to promote economic development [4]. - Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations: The two sides held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and China hopes for the U.S. to work together to maintain stable economic and trade relations [4]. - Market regulations: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed regulatory measures on over - trading clients, and the Fed maintained interest rates with internal differences [5]. - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Brazil, and the total tariff rate reached 50% [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Company operations: Hualu Hengsheng will conduct equipment maintenance, and the impact of Typhoon "Bamboo Grass" affected the shipping and wood processing industries in Jiangsu [10]. - Inventory changes: The refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased, while China's methanol port inventory increased. The U.S. commercial crude oil and strategic petroleum reserve inventories also changed [10][11]. Metal Futures - Production changes: A large recycled lead smelter in North China resumed production, and a primary lead smelter in Northeast China planned equipment maintenance [14]. - Market data: New energy vehicle retail sales in July showed certain changes, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some metal futures contracts [14]. - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products [15]. Black - Series Futures - Policy emphasis: The Politburo meeting emphasized safety production and energy supply [18]. - Price adjustments: The coking industry planned to raise coke prices, and relevant associations called for anti - "involution" competition [18]. - Company operations: Gansu Energy's coal mine resumed production, and relevant industrial alliances called for balancing industry interests [19]. Agricultural Product Futures - Policy guidance: The Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing agricultural product prices [22]. - Production forecasts: Brazil's grain production is expected to increase, while India's sugar production decreased [22]. Financial Market Finance - Stock market performance: A - shares closed with mixed results, and the Hong Kong stock market declined. Some private equity products were restricted, and A - share margin trading balance reached a new high [24][26]. - Corporate news: Hon Hai and Dongyuan Electric established a strategic alliance, and New Oriental's financial report showed revenue growth but profit decline [26][27]. Industry - Interest rate data: The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q2 2025 was 3.09% [28]. - Trade policies: Lithium - ion battery raw materials and recycled steel raw materials can be freely imported [29]. - Industry meetings: The coking industry planned to raise prices, and relevant associations discussed capacity control and market regulation [29][31]. - Real estate market: The land market in July had a seasonal decline, but the average premium rate reached a new high [31]. Overseas - Tariff policies: The U.S. imposed tariffs on multiple countries' products, and reached a trade agreement with South Korea [32][33]. - Economic data: The U.S., eurozone, Australia, and other economies released relevant economic data, and the Canadian central bank maintained interest rates [35][37][39]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stock market: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with mixed results, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased [41]. - European stock market: European main stock indexes rose slightly [41]. - Corporate news: Some well - known companies such as META, Microsoft, and Qualcomm released financial reports, and some companies had major events such as acquisitions [43][45]. Commodities - Futures trading: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some metal futures contracts [48]. - Commodity prices: Precious metals, base metals, and oil prices showed different trends [50]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: Yields of domestic inter - bank major interest - rate bonds generally declined, and relevant departments regulated the bond market [51]. - U.S. bonds: The U.S. Treasury announced a refinancing plan, and U.S. bond yields rose [51][53]. Foreign Exchange - Exchange rates: The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar declined, and the U.S. dollar index rose [54]. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Economic data: Multiple countries will release economic data such as PMI and retail sales [56]. - Meetings and events: There will be central bank meetings, press conferences, and important industry conferences [58]. - Earnings reports: Apple and Amazon will release earnings reports [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].

Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the second - half macro - policies and clarified the strategic claims and development ideas during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Policies will continue to exert force and release policy effects. The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting reform while maintaining stability and progress [2]. - The "anti - involution" market is expected to continue, with a more market - oriented implementation in the industry. The meeting's policies on optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are related to the "anti - involution" concept [3][4]. - The conclusion of the China - US Stockholm talks and the Politburo meeting have a short - term positive impact on the capital market, increasing risk appetite, benefiting risky assets such as stocks, slightly raising the RMB exchange rate, and helping commodity prices regain an upward trend. However, long - term caution is still needed [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Macro - policy Summary - **Total policies**: Fiscal policy will be more active, accelerating government bond issuance and use, boosting consumption, and promoting high - quality "two major" construction. Monetary policy will be moderately loose to lower financing costs. There is no need for ultra - expected policies for now, and a certain interest - rate cut expectation has formed in the market [3]. - **Structural policies**: Structural monetary policy tools focus on science and technology innovation, consumption boosting, small and micro enterprises, and stable foreign trade. Reform - promoting policies emphasize developing new - quality productivity through science and technology innovation, building a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order [3]. Impact on the "Anti - Involution" Market - Although the term "anti - involution" is not directly mentioned in the meeting announcement, relevant concepts such as optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are reflected. The "anti - involution" market is expected to further develop in the capital market, and its implementation in the industry will be more market - oriented [4]. China - US Talks and Market Impact - The 90 - day extension of the China - US talks is a "fragile cease - fire", reducing short - term market uncertainty. There are still fundamental differences between China and the US in many aspects. In the short term, it is beneficial to the capital market, but long - term risks remain [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market had a mixed performance overnight, with most black - series and non - metallic building materials rising, and international oil prices surging due to the US - EU trade agreement. The financial market showed different trends, with A - shares rising, Hong Kong stocks slightly falling, and overseas stock markets having mixed performances. The bond and foreign exchange markets also had their own fluctuations [2][20][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures: Most black - series and non - metallic building materials rose, such as a 6.99% increase in coking coal, 5.92% in coke, 5.84% in glass, etc. International oil prices increased, with the US crude oil main contract up 3.81% to $69.25/barrel and Brent crude up 3.53% to $71.77/barrel. International precious metals also rose, while London base metals had a mixed close [2][3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% due to stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading fees of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda futures contracts. The domestic refined oil price remained unchanged this round as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan. Hainan Development's subsidiary carried out kiln shutdown and production reduction [8][10]. Metal Futures - Domestic component companies slightly increased their quotes due to cost pressure, but downstream acceptance was low. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about the anti - involution work in the photovoltaic industry [12]. Black - Series Futures - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented. Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the inventory at 47 Chinese ports also declined. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed and added some futures delivery warehouse businesses. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association emphasized the imbalance between supply and demand in the steel industry and called for industry self - discipline [13][15]. Agricultural Product Futures - July's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushings remained high, and the expected end - of - July soybean meal inventory was about 1.1 million tons. Indonesia expected to export more palm oil to India in 2025. EU's imports of palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed, and soybeans decreased compared to last year. Canada's oilseed processing data showed different trends in June [17][18]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 1.86%. Hong Kong stocks slightly fell, but southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong market, and the annual inflow might exceed HK$1 trillion. The number of A - share stocks with a price of over 100 yuan reached 101. Listed companies actively participated in share repurchases. Hong Kong market's trading volume and market value increased compared to last year [20][21][23]. Industry - Domestic refined oil prices remained unchanged this round. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted rumors about anti - involution work. The State Post Bureau and the Ningbo Banking Association addressed industry involution issues [24][25]. Overseas - Trump set a 10 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a cease - fire and threatened economic punishment. There were uncertainties in US - India trade relations. The Fed's voting number for the interest - rate decision decreased. The EU planned to buy $40 billion worth of AI chips from the US. US economic data showed a narrowing trade deficit, changes in housing prices, and job vacancies. The Bank of Korea considered further interest - rate cuts [27][28][31]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell, while European stocks rose. High - end analysts warned about potential stock price damage from tariffs. Boeing's Q2 revenue increased, while Merck & Co. announced a restructuring. Novo Nordisk and Stellantis faced performance challenges [32][33][35]. Commodities - Domestic commodity futures had a mixed overnight performance, with black - series and non - metallic building materials mostly rising. International oil prices increased due to the US - EU agreement. Precious metals rose, and base metals had a mixed close [2][37][39]. Bonds - The domestic bond market adjusted, with yields rising and Treasury bond futures falling. The issuance of panda bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 100 billion yuan. US bond yields fell due to trade - friction concerns [40]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [41][43]. Upcoming Events - There are multiple events scheduled, including Chinese central bank's open - market operations, press conferences, interest - rate decisions by central banks, and corporate earnings reports [45].