Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is still oscillating within a wide - range, mainly affected by macro - environment changes. With terminal demand support and a tight supply expectation, the upward and downward amplitudes are limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of copper tariffs and wait for new drivers [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low, rose, and was under pressure during the day. The weak US economic data pressured the US dollar. The Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% and launched a Section 232 investigation on copper imports, triggering strong expectations of copper tariff policies. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not decreased yet. The domestic PMI data is good, and the off - season demand is resilient, supporting the copper price. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, confirming the downstream export and demand. The demand has weakened marginally in the short - term and entered the off - season, but there are no obvious changes in the fundamentals [1] Periodic and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, went low, then high, fluctuated, and closed down, at 78270. The long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2631 to 126036 hands, and the short positions decreased by 1325 to 128264 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 5 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9619 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 54.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31700 tons, a decrease of 246 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52000 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138000 tons, a slight decrease of 3350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 185700 short tons, an increase of 1498 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, dropping nearly 3%. The market has a consistent expectation of weak demand, and the overall trend is bearish. Attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and the export end [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, with upstream factory prices slightly decreasing and new orders progressing slowly. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The daily production on the supply side remained unchanged, with multiple statistical calibers showing daily production above 200,000 tons, which limits the upside. On the demand side, it is currently the wheat harvest stage, with sporadic agricultural purchases and no concentrated replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the summer fertilizer production is basically finished. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, and there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1768 yuan/ton, closed at 1722 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%. The position increased by 26,121 hands to 245,711 hands. Among the top twenty main position - holding seats, long positions increased by 12,125 hands and short positions increased by 17,530 hands. On June 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,357, a decrease of 52 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are stable with a slight decline, new orders progress slowly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center has slightly moved down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong region, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 118 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Downstream Data - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week [12]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.60%报 3376.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.05%报 34.68 美元/盎司。美国关税政策调整带来的不确定 性使市场对未来经济增长的预期更加复杂，推动避险资产需求。全球重要经济 体如欧盟对美国关税政策表示担忧，进一步加剧了国际贸易的不确定性。 2. 国际油价全线上涨，美油主力合约合约涨 1.31%，报 63.34 美元/桶。布油主 力合约涨 1.47%，报 65.58 美元/桶。分析认为，由于地缘紧张局势，以及强劲 的劳动力市场信号，推动原油价格上涨。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 据财新，6 月 3 日公布的 5 月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得 48.3， 较 4 月下降 2.1 个百分点，2024 年 10 月来首次跌至临界点以下。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 04 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格多数地区稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 2.00 个百分点 至 78.19%，PVC 开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。上周 PVC 下游开工 略有回落，同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 6 月份报价上调 10-20 美元/吨，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。另 外，印度即将迎来雨季或限制未来中国 PVC 出口。上周社会库存继续下降，只是 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-4 月份，房地产数据略有改善，只是 同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，竣工面积同比增速进一步 下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水 平，房地产改善仍需时间。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，需求未实 质性改善之前 PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, with a slight upward movement in the afternoon and ended flat. The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a limited opportunity for a price rebound when agricultural demand is released during the wheat harvest peak [1]. - On the supply side, there was a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, but the overall supply remains sufficient, with daily production still above 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants are in the summer end - stage, mainly digesting finished - product inventories, and some regional plants have reduced their operating rates, providing weak support for urea. Agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up during the wheat harvest [1]. - Upstream factories are continuing to accumulate inventory due to weak demand and reduced new orders, but inventory may be reduced after the recovery of agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, then slightly rebounded in the afternoon and ended flat. Market buying sentiment is weak, and upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with stable prices. The supply is sufficient with a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, and daily production is above 200,000 tons. Demand from compound fertilizer plants is weak, and agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be a chance to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand. The overall trend is bearish, with a limited chance of a rebound [1]. Futures and Spot Market Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 219,590 lots (-11,488 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 6,744 lots and short positions decreased by 3,312 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed significantly. On June 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,409, a decrease of 210 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Market buying sentiment is weak. Upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with no pressure to receive new orders, and prices are stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 tons (-13 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On June 4, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to last Friday [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1035,400 tons, an increase of 54,800 tons compared to last week, a 5.59% increase [11]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 4, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period, a 6.97% decrease [11].

【冠通研究】 沥青：高开震荡 制作日期：2025年6月4日 【策略分析】 单边观望/做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落3.1个百分点至27.7%，较去年同期高了2.2个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，降至近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环比增 加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。上周沥青下游各行业开工率多数下降，其 中道路沥青开工环比下降5个百分点至26%，降至近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。上周华南地区 个别炼厂停发，出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.60%至25.86万吨，处于中性偏低位。沥青炼 厂库存存货比上周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的最低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受 制约，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。近期美国持续加大对伊朗原油出口的制裁，不过伊朗核协议或将 签署。只是近日伊朗表示保留铀浓缩的能力，伊朗核协议签署不如此前乐观。关注美国对伊朗原油 的制裁是否会放松。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，原油波动较 大，美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The Trump administration's plan to double steel and aluminum import tariffs and initiate a Section 232 investigation on copper imports has led to strong expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic output is expanding, with the May manufacturing PMI up 0.5 percentage points and the composite PMI output index up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The supply side is expected to remain tight, but the actual supply of refined copper has not decreased. The domestic PMI data is positive, and the demand during the off - season is resilient, which supports copper prices. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, indicating downstream demand. If the copper tariff policy becomes clearer, it may lead to expectations of supply shortages and benefit copper prices. Currently, copper is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policies and downstream demand resilience [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened high and closed slightly lower. The Trump administration's actions on tariffs have raised expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic indicators show expansion. The supply of copper is expected to be tight, but actual supply remains stable. The domestic PMI data is good, and off - season demand is resilient, supporting copper prices. The inventory decline in the Shanghai Futures Exchange reflects downstream demand. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the economy persists. If copper tariff policies become clear, it may boost copper prices. Currently, copper is in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed lower at 77,650. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 6,123 to 119,553 hands, and the short positions increased by 6,221 to 126,122 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 185 yuan/ton, while in South China it was - 60 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9,600 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 55 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31,400 tons, a decrease of 2,724 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a slight decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 182,600 short tons, an increase of 1,997 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Crude oil prices rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival due to factors such as OPEC+ not exceeding production increase expectations, Canadian wildfires affecting production, and Ukraine's bombing of Russian strategic bombers. However, there is still downward pressure on crude oil due to factors like high supply pressure, the impact of trade wars, and Kazakhstan's over - production [3][5]. - The upward momentum of the soybean meal futures has weakened, and the futures price will show a volatile trend due to sufficient domestic soybean supply and stable terminal demand [6]. - Copper is still in a volatile range. If the copper tariff policy becomes clear, it may lead to an expectation of tight supply and benefit copper prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent tariff policy and downstream demand resilience [12]. - Asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. - PP and plastic are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors such as high inventory pressure, slow downstream recovery, and the impact of tariffs [15][17]. - PVC is in a weak and volatile state due to factors such as high inventory pressure, weak demand, and the impact of anti - dumping policies [18]. - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to high inventory and weak terminal demand [20]. - The urea futures price is not expected to fall deeply, but the upside space for the market rebound during the agricultural demand period may be limited due to relatively loose supply and demand [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Varieties Crude Oil - International crude oil prices rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. Canadian wildfires led to a shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production. The US government's sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry were upgraded, and Trump threatened to increase sanctions on Iran and Russia. However, there is still downward pressure on crude oil due to high supply and the impact of trade wars [3][5]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 - contract of soybean meal opened lower and fluctuated. Internationally, the US soybean - producing states may have higher temperatures and more precipitation. Brazil's soybean planting area is expected to increase slightly, but the yield is expected to decrease. Domestically, soybean supply will be sufficient in the future, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to increase, so the futures price will be volatile [6]. Futures Market Summary - As of the close on June 3, most domestic futures main contracts fell. 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, coking coal, and glass fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, silver futures rose nearly 3%, and SC crude oil rose more than 2%. Stock index futures mostly rose slightly, while most bond futures fell [8]. - As of 15:05, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai copper 2507 and Shanghai silver 2508, and flowed out of contracts such as crude oil 2507 and rapeseed meal 2509 [10]. Core Content of Each Variety Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower. The US government's tariff policy on copper has increased market expectations. Although the supply of refined copper is high, the demand is supported by good PMI data. The copper price is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the tariff policy and downstream demand [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline, and the downstream demand was weak. The US sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports and the situation in Venezuela need to be monitored. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13][14]. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the inventory pressure was high. With the restart of some devices and the slow recovery of downstream demand, PP is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Plastic - The start - up rate of plastic decreased, and the downstream demand was weak. The inventory was at a relatively high level, and the impact of tariffs and new production capacity also affected the market. Plastic is expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. PVC - The start - up rate of PVC increased, but the downstream demand was still weak. The anti - dumping policy of India and high inventory pressure affected the market. PVC is expected to be weak and volatile [18]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 - contract of soybean oil opened low and rebounded. With sufficient domestic soybean supply and high soybean crushing volume, the inventory of soybean oil increased, and the terminal demand was weak. The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19][20]. Urea - The urea price opened high and closed lower. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a gap period. Although there is agricultural demand expectation, the upside space for the market rebound may be limited [21].

【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...