【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.74% to $3,406.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 5.76% to $34.93 per ounce. The increase was supported by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions and geopolitical risks [6][34]. - International oil prices rose across the board, with the US crude oil main - contract rising 3.7% to $63.04 per barrel and Brent crude oil main - contract rising 3.63% to $65.06 per barrel. The increase was due to OPEC+’s lower - than - expected production increase and geopolitical concerns [6][37]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with LME zinc rising 2.79% to $2,693.00 per ton and LME nickel rising 1.79% to $15,510.00 per ton. Future market volatility may continue [2][37]. 2. Macroeconomic Information - In May 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [4]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [7]. - In 2024, the national housing provident fund loans issued were 1.3 trillion yuan, and the housing provident fund deposit amount was 3631.783 billion yuan [7]. - The US factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May, and the import index fell to a 16 - year low [8]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed the designated glass delivery warehouse business of Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd. and added two new designated glass delivery warehouses [10]. - In May, the inventory days of domestic photovoltaic glass increased to over 30 days, an increase of more than 1 day compared with April [11]. - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month in July [14]. 4. Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7,120 tons, while aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin inventories decreased, and nickel inventory increased [16]. - In April 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile commodities was $23.09 billion, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%. From January to April, the cumulative import and export volume was $81.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [16]. - Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton but lowered the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [16][37]. 5. Black - Series Futures - In May 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton compared with April, a decline of 2.39% [18]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has had 16 consecutive auction failures [19]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 122,250 tons [22]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69% [23]. - Gabon will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 [24]. 6. Agricultural Product Futures - As of the week of May 30, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 35.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head [26]. - Muyuan Co., Ltd. decided not to sell commercial pigs to secondary fattening customers [27]. - It is expected that the soybean imports will be 12 million tons in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [28]. - As of the week of May 27, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas and 23% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought [31]. - As of May 31, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.8% [31]. - As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 67%, and the planting rate was 84% [31]. - As of the week of May 29, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons [31]. - At the end of March, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons compared with February, and the March production increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. 7. Financial Markets - Many institutions are avoiding 30 - year US Treasury bonds and choosing short - term bonds. US Treasury yields rose across the board, and the US junk - bond default rate in May hit a 15 - month high [38]. - European bond yields generally rose [39]. - The US dollar index fell 0.75% in late New York trading. Non - US currencies mostly rose. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will fall by about 9% by the middle of next year [42]. 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Australia's Q1 current account, China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, etc. [45]. - Events to occur include China's central bank's 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expiring, the RBA's release of the June monetary policy meeting minutes, etc. [47]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.61%报 3342.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.84%报 33.44 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价全线下跌，美油主力合约跌 1.49%，报 60.92 美元/桶。布油主力合 约跌 1.43%，报 63.40 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期锡跌 2.48%报 30850.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜涨 0.02%报 9567.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大豆期货涨 0.21%报 1050.75 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.89%报 447.00 美分/蒲式耳，小麦 期货涨 0.71%报 534.00 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 夜盘国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。燃油跌近 4%，沪锡、低硫燃料油（LU）跌 超 2%，SC 原油、沥青、焦煤、烧碱跌近 2%；涨幅方面，纸浆涨近 2%，沪镍涨 超 1% ...

热点资讯 - China urges the US to correct its wrong practices in the semiconductor field and cancel unilateral tariff increases [3] - China's stance on the tariff issue is that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [3] - By 2027, China aims to improve the trading systems of carbon emission rights and water use rights and expand the scope of the national carbon emission trading market [3] - Trump criticized Powell for failing to lower borrowing costs, while Powell insisted that decisions would not be based on the president's requests [3] - A US federal appellate court suspended a lower - court ruling on Trump's tariffs on international trade partners, delaying the decision until at least June 9 [4] 板块表现 - Key sectors to focus on: fuel, caustic soda, glass, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai nickel [5] - Night - session performance of sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.89%, precious metals 29.36%, oilseeds 12.26%, soft commodities 2.43%, non - ferrous metals 19.18%, coal, coke, and steel ore 13.67%, energy 2.50%, chemicals 13.35%, grains 1.61%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [5] 大类资产表现 Equity - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 2.57% monthly, and 0.35% annually; SSE 50 rose 0.29% daily, 2.19% monthly, and 0.23% annually [7] - CSI 300 rose 0.59% daily, 2.34% monthly, and - 1.94% annually; CSI 500 rose 1.47% daily, 1.56% monthly, and - 0.10% annually [7] - S&P 500 rose 0.40% daily, 6.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually; Hang Seng Index rose 1.35% daily, 6.57% monthly, and 17.51% annually [7] - German DAX had no daily change, rose 6.85% monthly, and 20.74% annually; Nikkei 225 rose 1.88% daily, 6.62% monthly, and - 3.66% annually [7] - UK FTSE 100 fell 0.11% daily, rose 2.61% monthly, and 6.65% annually [7] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.26% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 0.41% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.15% daily, 0.22% monthly, and 0.63% annually [7] - 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.06% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.61% annually [7] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index fell 0.85% daily, rose 0.69% monthly, and - 2.01% annually; WTI crude oil fell 1.57% daily, rose 4.61% monthly, and - 15.36% annually [7] - London spot gold rose 0.96% daily, 0.90% monthly, and 26.43% annually; LME copper rose 0.02% daily, 4.84% monthly, and 8.94% annually [7] - Wind Commodity Index fell 0.92% daily, 2.36% monthly, and rose 13.51% annually [7] Other - US Dollar Index fell 0.54% daily, 0.28% monthly, and 8.41% annually; CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, fell 21.82% monthly, and rose 11.30% annually [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

【冠通研究】 需求空档期，盘面弱势下行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，震荡下行。企业前期待发订单充足，暂无销 售压力，市场价格多以稳定为主。基本面来看，目前尿素供应端窄幅波动，部 分企业检修计划有所推迟，总体来说相对充足，后续出口陆续进行，可能有局 部流动性抽调问题。需求端来看，农业经销商开启少量备肥，华北地区正值小 麦收麦时段，收麦完成后将迎来玉米用肥时段。复合肥工厂灵活排产，本周提 升开工率，实行以销定产，后续备肥结束后或稳中下调开工率，对尿素支撑走 弱。上游工厂继续累库，主要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化 库存。综合来看，盘面目前整体偏空，后续或阶段性提振尿素需求，但持续时 间不强，且上方空间不大。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1787 元/吨低开低走，最终收于 1773 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.01%，持仓量 225127 手（+5689 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头+10388 手，空头+6899 手。其中，东证期货净多单增加 2783 手、 浙商期货净多单增加 654 手；方正中期货净空单增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 29 日 热点品种 原油： 雪佛龙此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日 向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最 低限度的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业 的制裁升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪 佛龙占委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞 拉石油行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制 裁大幅削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议 和俄乌停火的谈判手段。5 月 28 日第 39 届 OPEC+部长级会议宣布维持 25-26 年 产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定 2027 年产量基线，5 月 31 日还将举行 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国会议，届时可能达成 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日的协 议。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market on May 29, 2025, covering futures and spot markets, fundamentals, and related data analysis [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak state. Although there may be a phased boost in demand during the summer fertilizer season, the rebound space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by subsequent fertilizer - using conditions [1] Specific Content Summaries Futures Market - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1794 yuan/ton, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 1784 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The trading volume decreased, with a decrease of 4320 lots in the position to 219438 lots. Among the top twenty major positions, the long position decreased by 6807 lots, and the short position decreased by 3088 lots [2] Spot Market - After the decline of the urea futures market yesterday, the market sentiment cooled down, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. However, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and no sales pressure. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [1][4] Fundamental Analysis Supply - On May 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 20.46 tons, remaining flat compared with yesterday. Some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient. There may be local liquidity withdrawal problems with subsequent exports [1][9] Demand - Affected by the futures market, the market trading sentiment was weak. Agricultural dealers started to make small - scale fertilizer reserves. In North China, it was the wheat - harvesting period, and the corn - fertilizing period would follow after the wheat harvest. Compound fertilizer factories adjusted their production flexibly, with some regions increasing the operating rate and some producing according to sales, which supported the short - term strengthening of urea. After the fertilizer reserve period, the operating rate might decline steadily [1] Inventory - Upstream factories continued to accumulate inventory mainly due to the weakening of the demand side. There might be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the agricultural demand recovered [1] Downstream Data - From May 23 to May 29, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from last week [10] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [7]