制作日期：2025 年 4 月 8 日 【策略分析】 成材跌幅扩大，短期弱势震荡 【冠通研究】 成材跌幅扩大，短期弱势震荡 贸易冲突引起的市场悲观情绪尚未消退，今日早盘黑色系开盘下行，叠加钢材减 产消息扰动，炉料端大幅下挫，成本支撑下移，成材跌幅亦扩大。成材基本面表 现中性偏弱，螺纹需求回升斜率偏缓，库存去化缓慢；热卷需求有见顶迹象，库 存去化态势较好，但国际贸易形势恶化叠加买单出口调查加严，中长期热卷出口 有边际走弱预期。我们认为成材需求和铁水产量见顶风险逐渐加大，产业链上下 游整体压力加大；近几日宏观风险加大带动黑色系整体偏弱运行，但考虑到黑色 系估值相对偏低，产业矛盾暂时有限，短期建议低位震荡思路对待。后续重点关 注出口需求边际变动以及国内宏观政策措施。RB2510 下方关注 3000 附近、HC2510 关注 3100 附近。 【期现行情】 螺纹 2510 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2510 开盘 3158 元/吨，收盘于 3101 元/吨，-38 元/吨， 涨跌幅-1. ...

【冠通研究】 近月贴水幅度加大，5-9 正套继续持有 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 8 日 【策略分析】 近月贴水幅度加大，5-9 正套继续持有 铁矿石 2509 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：铁矿石主力 I2509 合约高开后增仓下行，最终收盘于 693 元/吨，-25 元/吨，涨跌幅-3.48%。成交量 57.2 万手，持仓 49.42 万手，+88032 手，今日铁 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 矿石 2509 合约前二十名多头持仓为 306454 手，+35138 手，前二十名空头持仓 为 322442 手，+49501 手，多增空增。 【基本面跟踪】 产业方面：外矿方面，3 月 31 日-4 月 6 日，全球铁矿石发运总量 2921.9 万吨， 环比减少 265.9 万吨。澳洲发运量 1659.2 万吨，环比减少 327.2 万吨，其中澳 洲发往中国的量 1453.1 万吨，环比减少 73.9 万吨。巴西发运量 733.9 万吨，环 比增加 72.5 万吨。中国 47 港铁矿石到港总量 2359.1 万吨，环比减少 13 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/04/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线下跌,美油５月合约跌 1.66%,报 60.96 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约跌 1.77%,报 64.42 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一, COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.21%报 2998.8 美元/盎 司,COMEX 白银期货涨 2.93%报 30.085 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数收跌, LME 期铜涨 0.28%报 8714 美元/吨, LME 期锌跌 0.9% 报 2646 美元/吨,LME 期镍跌 1.37%报 14440 美元/吨,LME 期铝跌 0.59%报 2373.5 美元/吨,LME 期锡跌 5.67%报 33020 美元/吨,LME 期铅跌 1.2%报 1888.5 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约集体收涨, 大豆期货涨 0.77% 报 984.5 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货涨 0.92%报 464.5 美分/蒲式耳, 小麦期货涨 1.32%报 536 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内商品期货 ...

早盘速递 2025/4/8 板块表现 重点关注 原油、玻璃、沪铜、尿素、PTA、沪金 夜盘表现 -8.00 -7.00 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 4.00% 贵金属, 22.63% 油脂油料, 13.78% 煤焦钢矿, 14.77% 能源, 2.41% 化工, 14.28% 谷物, 1.81% 农副产品, 2.88% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 热点资讯 1、 美国总统特朗普7日表示，他不会暂停所谓的"对等关税"政策。特朗普当天在白宫与到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会谈后 对媒体表示，他眼下没有暂停关税政策的考虑，许多经济体的领导人正寻求与其谈判。他认为，强行执行关税政策和进行谈 判，这两件事并不矛盾。 2、 美联储今年只会再召开六次会议，而交易商目前预计年底前将有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall futures market is affected by trade conflicts, with most domestic futures main contracts showing a downward trend. The market is worried about the global economy, and the prices of commodities such as crude oil, copper, and silver have generally declined. Different varieties have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7] - Urea is less affected by the macro - environment, with demand weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory providing support, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Crude oil prices are weakening due to trade war concerns and OPEC +'s decision to increase production, and are expected to fluctuate downward [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to trade war concerns, but the supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory [11][13] - The price of asphalt is expected to weaken and fluctuate downward due to trade war concerns and weak demand, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate downward due to factors such as trade war and cost pressure, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16][18] - PVC is under short - term downward pressure due to factors such as trade war, high inventory, and weak demand [19] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23] Summary by Commodity Urea - Affected by domestic fundamentals, the demand side is weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory support the market. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [3] Crude Oil - Trump's tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase decision lead to weakening prices, with a downward - trending and fluctuating market [4][5] Copper - Affected by the trade war, the price is under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] Lithium Carbonate - Weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory lead to a weak price trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][13] Asphalt - Supply contraction, weak demand, and trade war concerns lead to a downward - trending market, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] PP - Affected by trade war and cost pressure, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16] Plastic - Affected by trade war, cost pressure, and the end of the peak season, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL and short the 05 basis [17][18] PVC - Affected by trade war, high inventory, and weak demand, it is under short - term downward pressure [19] Iron Ore - Affected by trade uncertainty, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Affected by the trade war, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] Coking Coal - Affected by trade war, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23]

【冠通研究】 宏观利空带动商品整体下挫，短期焦煤低位震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 7 日 【策略分析】 宏观利空带动商品整体下挫，短期焦煤低位震荡 美国对多国加征关税，中国反制，国际贸易形势恶化，节后首个交易日国内股期 两市跳空低开消化利空，焦煤主力大幅低开后震荡上行。环保限产影响减弱，国 内矿山开工率抬升明显，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开 工继续回升，焦企一轮提涨；国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，出货好转，但是海外资源 价格仍承压，蒙古国大塔矿 2025 年第二季度蒙 5#原煤坑口价格较 2025 年一季 度下调 10.5 美金/吨左右。短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖，但 需求端缺乏弹性，供需宽松格局难有明显转变；节后首日大幅下挫消化利空情绪， 考虑到目前焦煤估值偏低，基本面变动有限，我们预计焦煤短期低位震荡为主。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 供应方面：3 月 28 日-4 月 3 日当周，国内 523 家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率 6.32%， 环比+1.56 个百分点；精焦煤日均产量 76.86 万吨，环比+0.98 万吨。4 月 5 日 甘 ...

早盘速递 2025/4/7 热点资讯 1、 自美国政府宣布关税以来，标普500指数在两天内下跌了10%以上，纳指下跌了11%以上。根据美国个人投资者协会（AAII） 的最新调查，悲观情绪（定义为对未来六个月股价下跌的预期）在最近一周上升了9.8%，达到61.9%。这是有记录以来的第三 高水平，也是自2009年3月5日以来的最低水平。 2、 国务院关税税则委员会公告称，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税。有关事项如下：对原产 于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税；现行保税、减免税政策不变，此次加征的关税不予减免。 3、 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储对美国总统特朗普征收的关税范围感到震惊，这意味着关税对经济的影响将比之前认为的 要大。鲍威尔称，关税上调幅度很明显将远超预期，经济影响也可能如此，包括通胀上升和经济增长放缓。这些影响的规模和 持续时间仍不确定。美联储有条件等一等，再考虑是否调整政策；经济增长疲软、通胀上升相互抵消，将使美联储维持对2025 年降息两次的预期。 第 3 页，共 3 页 4、 美国3月季调后非农就业人口增22.8万人，预期增13.5 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures tumbled significantly, with COMEX gold futures down 2.1% at $3,056.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 7.65% at $29.525 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices plunged across the board, with the May contract of US crude down 6.92% at $62.32 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude down 5.93% at $65.98 per barrel [3]. - London base metals all declined, with LME copper down 6.86% at $8,690 per ton and LME zinc down 1.39% at $2,670 per ton [3]. - CBOT agricultural futures had mixed results, with soybean futures down 3.39% at 977.25 cents per bushel and corn futures up 0.66% at 460.5 cents per bushel [3]. 2. Important News Macro News - Negotiations on the Ukraine issue have made significant progress, and the date for the next round of Russia-US negotiations will be determined soon [6]. - Nomura Securities expects the Fed to cut interest rates once in December 2025, reversing its previous prediction [7]. - China firmly opposes the US tariff hikes on imported products and will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate interests [7]. - The National Bureau of Statistics released price changes of important production materials in late March 2025, showing 14 products up, 31 down, and 5 unchanged compared to mid-March [7]. - Traders have increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, fully pricing in a 100-basis-point cut this year [8]. - China will impose additional tariffs on US imports starting from April 10, 2025 [8]. - Fed Chair Powell said the impact of tariffs on the economy may be greater than expected, and the Fed maintains its expectation of two rate cuts in 2025 [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In March 2025, Daqing Oilfield's Sichuan-Chongqing exploration area achieved a monthly natural gas output of over 100 million cubic meters for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 35% [12]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its annual average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil [12]. - OPEC+ maintained its oil production policy and is discussing compliance with production cut targets and compensation plans [12]. Metal Futures - On April 4, 2025, 30,000 tons of overseas alumina were traded at $330 per ton FOB Western Australia for May shipment [14]. - Trump signed an order to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, which was opposed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers [14]. - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel inventories on the SHFE decreased, while tin inventory increased [16]. - The US added 228,000 non-farm payrolls in March, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [17]. - Well-known gold brands lowered their gold prices, but the jewelry prices still remained around 1,000 yuan per gram [17]. Black Futures - In April, steel prices may rebound as demand recovers, but cost support is weakening, and external tariff pressure remains a concern [19]. - RANA GRUBER ASA produced 473,000 tons of iron ore concentrate in Q1 [20]. - Vietnam will impose temporary anti-dumping duties on galvanized steel imports from South Korea and other countries starting in mid-April [21]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March 2025 is expected to be 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February [23]. - Canada's rapeseed and wheat exports increased in the week ending March 30 [25]. - China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to exceed 11 million tons [25]. - As of March 28, the number of unpriced sell and buy orders for US cotton increased [25]. - The FAO Food Price Index rose in March, and the global grain output in 2024 was estimated at 2.849 billion tons [25]. - China suspended the import of sorghum, poultry bone meal, and poultry products from some US companies due to quarantine issues [26]. 3. Financial Markets Finance - Brokerage and capital intermediary businesses of securities firms are expected to grow in Q1, driven by increased A-share new accounts and trading volume [28]. - Some wealth management companies have entered the market through stock ETFs, and ETFs are expected to become the mainstream choice for wealth management funds [29]. - As of now, 1,546 fund products have implemented dividends this year, with a total dividend of 67.904 billion yuan [29]. - The number of enhanced index funds submitted this year has increased significantly compared to last year [30]. Real Estate - Ningde, Fujian, revised its housing provident fund policies, canceling the priority repayment limit [31]. Industry - The pre-orders for the AITO M8 exceeded 100,000 units, and it will be launched in mid-April [33]. - Hunan plans to develop a credible data space, aiming for over 500 network nodes by 2028 [33]. - China's export control on rare earths is a measure to maintain world peace and security [33]. Overseas - US tariffs will continue to be implemented in the coming days and weeks [34]. - Vietnam's Q1 GDP grew by 6.93%, slightly lower than expected [35]. - US tariffs may force clothing brands in Vietnam to raise prices [35]. - South Korea plans to provide 3 trillion won in emergency aid to its auto industry [35]. - US car sales soared 11.2% in March as consumers rushed to avoid tariffs [36]. - The US will impose preliminary anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese galvanized steel [37]. - Australia will invest 2.3 billion Australian dollars to help homeowners buy solar batteries [38]. - European economic growth may slow down, and the ECB may cut interest rates to below 2% by June [38]. 4. International Stock Markets - BBC accused Apple and Google of weakening its brand influence in news and podcast apps [39]. - Meta launched the open-source AI model Llama 4 [39]. - Toyota plans to launch 15 electric vehicles by 2027 [40]. 5. Commodities - OPEC+ maintained its oil production policy and is discussing production cut compliance and compensation [42]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude for Asia in May at a $1.20 premium [43]. - Gold prices may continue to be supported by trade uncertainties and central bank purchases [43]. - China's export control on rare earths is a measure to maintain world peace and security [43]. - Germany is considering withdrawing its gold reserves from the US due to economic policy uncertainties [43]. 6. Bonds - JPMorgan strategists expect US Treasury prices to rise and the Fed to cut rates at each FOMC meeting until January 2026 [44]. 7. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar fell below 145 against the Japanese yen on Monday, with a 1.29% decline [45].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期: 2025年4月3日 豆粕: 豆粕今日益面高开低走,减仓上行,收盘涨幅1.60%。国际方面,美国"对等关 税"或影响贸易格局,美豆出口前景存疑,美国农业部(USDA)公布的大豆季度 库存和播种意向报告显示美国季度库存高于预期,现货压力大,新李大豆种植面 积预计下降,奠定美国 2025年大豆减产主基调,利多下半年豆系市场;南美大 豆即将迎来集中上市阶段,巴西大豆出口稳步上升,发运中国周度装船量 285.68 万吨,环比增加 5.30%。国内方面,大豆进口开始好转,压榨厂周度大豆到港量 123.5 万吨,环比增加 46.15%,大豆港口库存去库幅度收窄,原料端紧缺情况缓 解,但大豆压榨厂周度开工率继续下跌至 33.81%,环比减少 5.82个百分点,豆 粕周度产量为 95.02 万吨,环比减少 14.69%。需求方面,下游养殖企业拿货谨 慎,表观需求量继续下滑,周度环比减少 9.18%。库存周度数据为 74.8万吨,环 比减少 0.16%,打断累库趋势。总体来说,南美大豆进口数量逐渐增加缓解原料 端紧缺 ...

【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1884 元/吨低开高走承压运行，盘面震荡收 跌，最终收于 1894 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅 0.42%，日成交有所缩量，持 仓量 225812 手（-8655 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1506 手，空头 -4173 手。其中，南华期货净多单增加 1033 手、海证期货净多单减少 629 手； 中泰期货净空单增加 1492 手；中信期货净空单减少 2056 手。 【冠通研究】 盘面震荡整理，行情等待新驱动 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 3 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力低开高走承压运行。上游工厂待发相对充足，虽成交氛围不积极， 但压力不大，价格稳定为主。供给端，目前处于春季检修期，装置以临检复产并 行为主。节后包括山东寿光联盟、陕西渭河、陕西陕化小颗粒及山西天泽等部分 装置有检修计划，小幅减缓供应端压力。需求端来看，下游农需入场，需求端环 比改善，在备货完成后趋于放缓，复合肥工厂本期开工率有所下滑，成品库存增 加，成本高位下，部分装置出现短停情况，但开工负荷仍在高位支撑价格。本期 库存依然稳定去化，本季度预计持续去化。目前基本面偏向紧平衡状态 ...