Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is fluctuating and bullish [1] Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a fluctuating and bullish trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and moved lower during the day, showing a short - term fluctuating and bullish signal. The upper pressure is near the 60 - week moving average, and the support is near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 156,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 131,000 lots. The intraday high was 1271, the low was 1222, and the closing price was 1239, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market rose slightly. Enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments. The output of Boyuan Yingen increased, and industrial supply remained at a high level. Downstream procurement sentiment was average, mostly replenishing on - demand, with low - price transactions being the main form [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons or 4.26% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 104,300 tons; heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons or 6.93% [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output remains at a high level. Before New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing inventory. However, there is some short - term support under continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：偏强震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 豆粕：布交所预计阿根廷大部分农业带将迎来强降雨，未来几天土壤湿度将 有所上升，有利于处于关键生长阶段的大豆和玉米作物。罗交所预测阿根廷 25/26 玉米产量将创下记录达 6100 万吨，大豆将达 4700 万吨。 市场再度有流言传出，称已经开完会决定年前抛储进口大豆，盘面 01-03 合约溢价明显回落 ，不过流言仍未得到证实，暂时无公告发布。 近月合约明显受到政策端的影响，由于后期进口大豆货权过于集中，而抛储 时间表处于晦暗不明的状态，在具体进口大豆抛储时间表公布前，豆粕预估偏强 运行。后续需要关注抛储政策端引导。 油脂：印尼能源部周四公布的数据显示，印尼在 2025 年棕榈油生物柴油的 消费量为 1420 万千升，比上一年增长 7.6%。此前，印尼实施了一项名为 B40 的 40%生物柴油掺混强制令。印度尼西亚是全球最大的棕榈油出口国，计划今年将 生物柴油掺混比例提高到 50%，这 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2026/01/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，基本金属涨幅居前，沪镍涨停；黑色系全部上涨， 焦煤、焦炭涨停；化工品多数上涨，纯碱涨 7.53%；贵金属涨跌参半，铂金跌 2.47%。 2.美油主力合约收跌 1.28%，报 56.4 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.51 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a collection of hot news, including China's foreign exchange and gold reserves hitting new highs, potential developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and adjustments in futures trading regulations. It also shows the performance of various commodity and financial asset sectors [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $335.79 billion, a month-on-month increase of $1.15 billion, hitting a new high since December 2015; the gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces, increasing for 14 consecutive months [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated during a visit to Cyprus that negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced trading adjustments starting from January 9, including limits on intraday opening positions in silver futures and changes in trading fees and margin ratios for certain contracts [2] - Major coking enterprises agreed to continue production cuts, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, and stabilize prices through communication with steel mills [3] - The EIA report showed that for the week ending January 2, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline; domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, coke, and crude oil [4] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials rose 2.06%, precious metals 30.91%, oilseeds and oils 7.65%, non - ferrous metals 3.36%, soft commodities 29.23%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.30%, energy 2.33%, chemicals 9.83%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.23% [4] Plate Position - The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% daily, 2.95% monthly, and 2.95% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.34% daily, rose 1.10% monthly and year - to - date [6] - Fixed income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.23% monthly, and 0.23% year - to - date [6] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index was flat daily, rose 1.10% monthly and year - to - date; WTI crude oil fell 1.17% daily, 1.81% monthly, and 1.81% year - to - date [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose 0.14% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 0.48% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index was flat daily, fell 1.34% monthly and year - to - date [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1750 1740 10 河南 1750 1750 0 山东 1750 1740 10 山西 1620 1620 0 江苏 1760 1750 10 安徽 1750 1740 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1780 1780 0 河北东光 1730 1720 10 山东华鲁 1720 1710 10 江苏灵谷 1780 1780 0 安徽昊源 1720 1710 10 山东05基差 -48 -39 -9 山东01基差 -10 -5 -5 河北05基差 -38 -29 -9 河北01基差 0 5 -5 1-5价差 86 88 -2 5-9价差 38 34 4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12619 12619 0 中东FOB 397 397 0 美湾FOB 391.5 391.5 0 埃及FOB 447.5 447.5 0 波罗的海FOB 375 375 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 2026/1/7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 7, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with many hitting daily limits or significant gains, while some contracts declined. The overall futures market showed a mixed performance [5][6]. - For different commodities, their prices and trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic policies [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 7, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Contracts like Shanghai Nickel, Coking Coal, Coke, and Stainless Steel hit daily limits, while many others had significant gains. In terms of declines, Container Shipping European Line dropped over 3%, and some other contracts also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of stock index futures and bond futures, performance was mixed. For example, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.52%, while the 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.44% [6]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:24 on January 7, capital flowed into contracts like rebar and alumina, while it flowed out of contracts like Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index futures and Shanghai Gold [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The price increase of Shanghai Copper slowed down today. The strike at a copper - gold mine in Chile and the profit situation of copper smelters affect the supply side. The demand from downstream copper products is cautious, but the copper foil market has strong demand. The supply - demand balance drives the copper price up, and although the upward momentum weakened today, the strong logic remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate continued to rise nearly 5% today. Multiple departments held a symposium on the battery industry, and some companies raised prices. However, the supply - demand structure has not changed. The production in December 2025 increased, and downstream demand decreased. With a high - macro - sentiment and anti - involution expectations, the price continued to strengthen [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan and suspend production increase in February and March 2026. The overall oil inventory in the United States is increasing, and the market is worried about demand. The global crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and the oil price is in a weak and volatile state [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affects the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Venezuelan situation [13]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate was at a low level. The cost of crude oil is weak, the supply has new capacity, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited [15]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. There is new production capacity, and the demand from the agricultural film market is decreasing. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited [16][17]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export situation is not good, and the social inventory is high. Although the macro - environment is positive, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal hit the daily limit today. The supply from Mongolia will slow down, and the mine inventory increased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased, and the iron - water production increased. The price increase is mainly affected by capital sentiment, and the follow - up production capacity situation needs attention [20]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and went low, then turned positive in the afternoon. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. The market is in a short - term shock - adjustment state [21].

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，午后翻红。前期收单较多，虽今日跟进放缓，但上游 工厂依然挺价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，新疆供应充足，积极寻 找疆外渠道。整体日产环比增加，停产企业陆续复产，供应充裕下价格延续承 压。市场成交活跃度下降，农业需求处于淡季，下一季的集中农需大约为农历 年前后的小麦返青追肥。工业需求端大多受到环保预警的限制，开工多有下 滑，复合肥工厂主产区开工负荷承压，目前整体开工位于历年同期低位，但临 近年底假期，开工负荷难有大幅回升，采购趋于谨慎，三聚氰胺工厂后续复产 有所增加，但支撑不足。本期厂内库存转为小幅累库，虽市场行情火爆，但下 游需求有限，库存并未流畅去化。今日尿素情绪回落，但宏观情绪整体偏强， 尿素午后翻红，目前供需依然宽松，前期上涨速度快，短期震荡整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1790 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，午后翻红。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.45%，持仓量 232995 手（+2435 手） ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shanghai Copper Daily Report: Medium and Long - Term Uptrend Remains Intact - **Release Date**: January 7, 2026 - **Reporting Institution**: Guantong Futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The medium - and long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper remains unchanged. Although the upward momentum has weakened and the upward sentiment has cooled after several days of rising, the strong logic remains intact. The supply - demand tight balance drives copper prices up, with the market's risk - aversion sentiment and demand expectations boosted by the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, and concerns about the supply side intensified by mine accidents [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The upward speed of copper prices slowed down today. The market opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session. On January 2, Capstone Copper, a Canadian copper miner, announced a strike at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, with production expected to drop by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters cannot make profits through long - term contracts, and the spot market remains weakly stable. By - products such as sulfuric acid and gold have become the main profit points. In December, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 137,200 tons year - on - year (an 11.38% increase). Downstream copper products are mostly in the year - end accounting period, and procurement has become more cautious after the continuous rise in copper prices. The copper foil market has stronger demand than other copper products due to the booming terminal market, and AI computing power and technology concepts support copper prices. The impact of purchase tax on the new energy vehicle market and its potential transmission to the raw material end should be monitored [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Shanghai copper opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was - 60 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 10 yuan/ton. On January 6, 2026, the LME official price was $13,225/ton, and the spot premium was + $44.5/ton [4]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of January 5, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $44.96/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [7]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 96,500 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons from the previous period. As of January 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,200 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 508,900 short tons, an increase of 5,508 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to take a wait - and - see approach towards PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The supply - side PVC operating rate has increased, while the downstream operating rate has decreased. The export orders have slightly decreased, and the social inventory continues to rise. The real estate is still in the adjustment phase, and although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the PVC market has inventory pressure and limited demand in the traditional off - season, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the export orders decreased last week. The Indian market price is low with limited demand. The social inventory continues to increase and is still high. The real estate from January to November 2025 is in adjustment, and the 30 - city commercial housing weekly trading area has rebounded but is still at a low level. New production capacity includes the trial production of 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua. The macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure. January is the traditional off - season for PVC in China [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,913 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5,006 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4,972 yuan/ton, up 2.01%. The position increased by 6,395 lots to 1,032,593 lots [2] Basis - On January 7, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,670 yuan/ton, and the V2605 contract futures closing price was 4,972 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 302 yuan/ton, strengthening by 37 yuan/ton and at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, plants such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%. New production capacity includes 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang put into production in the second half of the year, and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua in trial production in December [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is in adjustment. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new housing start - up area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The housing completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of January 4, the 30 - city commercial housing trading area decreased by 26.09% week - on - week and was at a low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 31, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory is still high [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 山东地区主流市场价维持在3070元/吨，沥青03合约基差下跌至-90元/吨，处于中性偏低水 平。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落3.9个百分点至27.4%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于20%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，东北地区低硫沥青高价成交不畅，炼厂出货遇 阻，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.22%至26.31万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势 动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下， 委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞 拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，关 ...