光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四国内尿素现货价格走势回暖，主流地区现货价格上调 10～20 元/吨不等，山东临沂市场价格 1890 | 坚挺震荡 | | | 元/吨，日环比上涨 10 元/吨。基本面来看，昨日尿素行业日产量 19.55 万吨，日环比小幅提升 0.06 万 | | | | 吨。需求继续跟进，昨日多数地区现货产销率在 140%以上，个别地区稍显偏弱。整体来看，尿素需求 | | | | 仍在持续，中下游也在继续补库，支撑尿素期、现价格。但由于全球宏观事件扰动仍存，期货盘面走势 | | | | 及情绪或仍有较大波动。继续关注现货高成交情况、全球宏观动态。 | | | 纯碱 | 周二纯碱现货市场报价多数稳定，个别地区回落 20～50 元/吨。昨日沙河重碱贸易自提价格回升 17 元 | 宽幅波动 | | | /吨至 1340 元/吨。基本面来看，本周纯碱产量提升 3.47%，纯碱库存下降 0.49%，供应压力仍存。需求 | | | | 端弱稳波动，下游 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-04-11 一、指数走势 04 月 10 日，上证综指涨跌幅 1.16%，收于 3223.64 点，成交额 6823.57 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 2.25%，收于 9754.64 点，成交额 9271.11 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 2.34%，成交额 3299.64 亿元，其中开盘价 5766.51，收盘价 5784.59，当日最高价 5883.46，最低价 5766.41； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 1.92%，成交额 2686.66 亿元，其中开盘价 5534.56，收盘价 5544.06，当日最高价 5610.19，最低价 5513.95； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 1.31%，成交额 4038.43 亿元，其中开盘价 3749.13，收盘价 3735.12，当日最高价 3756.14，最低价 3708.82； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.6%，成交额 1148.06 亿元，其中开盘价 2628.52，收盘价 2612.62，当日最高价 2628.52，最低价 2590.76。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. The output of rebar continues to rise, inventory declines for the sixth consecutive week with a narrowing decline, and apparent demand rebounds slightly. The market is currently focused on the new round of global trade wars, weakening the impact of fundamental factors [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The shipping volume from Australia has declined, while that from Brazil has continued to rise, and the global shipping volume has decreased. The demand for iron ore has increased, and the inventory at ports has decreased. The price is also significantly affected by overseas macro - news [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious. Although the coke enterprises' operating rate is high, the profit of coke enterprises is being compressed, and the price increase of coke has been temporarily shelved [1]. - The coke market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline. The demand from steel mills is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to trade sideways. The supply is gradually decreasing, but the improvement in terminal demand still takes time. The price of manganese ore is weakening, and the cost support is limited. Market sentiment has a significant impact [3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, which provides support for the price, but the demand from steel mills is limited. Market sentiment is the dominant factor [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 749 lots in positions. The spot price rebounded, and the trading volume increased. This week, the national rebar output increased by 3.72 tons week - on - week to 232.37 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.1 tons, and factory inventory increased by 7.54 tons to 214.66 tons. Apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 2.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 600,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The spot price at ports increased. The shipping volume from Australia decreased, while that from Brazil increased, and the global shipping volume decreased. The number of blast furnaces in production increased, iron - making output increased by 1.49 tons to 240.22 tons, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 2.46 tons. The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 112.39 tons to 14,831.02 tons [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2505 closed at 913 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9,842 lots in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was stable. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2505 closed at 1550.5 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 1.77% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,812 lots in positions. The spot price at ports was stable. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5966 yuan/ton, up 1.53% month - on - month, with a decrease of 22,561 lots in positions to 292,600 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 - 5900 yuan/ton. The supply is gradually decreasing, and the price of manganese ore is weakening [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.65% month - on - month, with an increase of 3,601 lots in positions. The market price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was about 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand from steel mills is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 3.0; the 5 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 20.0, down 2.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 47.5, up 4.5; the 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 37.5, up 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 97.5, down 9.5; the 5 - 9 spread of manganese silicon was - 90.0, down 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of ferrosilicon was 6.0, down 12.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar 05 contract was 109.0, down 8.0; the basis of hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 45.0, down 5.0; the basis of iron ore 05 contract was 52.6, down 0.5; the basis of coke 05 contract was - 69.8, down 27.0; the basis of coking coal 05 contract was 257.0, up 4.0; the basis of manganese silicon 05 contract was - 166.0, down 2.0; the basis of ferrosilicon 05 contract was - 224.0, unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3170.0, up 40.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280.0, up 40.0; the spot price of PB powder was 761.0, up 20.0; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1330.0, unchanged; the spot price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1250.0, unchanged; the spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5650.0, up 50.0; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5600.0, unchanged [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar futures profit was 154.2, up 7.8; the long - process profit was 17.2, up 4.1; the short - process profit was - 56.8, up 51.1; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 116.0, down 4.0; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.4, down 0.04; the rebar - coke ratio was 2.0, unchanged; the coking coal - iron ore ratio was 1.7, up 0.04; the coke - iron ore ratio was 2.2, down 0.02; the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread was 22.0, down 22.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of 05 - 10, 10 - 01, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][33][36][37][40][41]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, and manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread [43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [48][52]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal research [54]. - Liu Xi, a master of science, is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, specializing in fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 一、研究观点 点 评 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2505 合约跌 1.53%至 70540 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 350 元/吨至 71750 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂上涨 350 元/吨至 69800 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 100 元/吨至 69050 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 100 至 74175 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓 单库存增加 60 吨至 28843 吨。 2. 供应端增速放缓，周度产量环比增加 337 吨至 17962 吨，其中云母提锂产量小幅下降，其他均有不 同程度增加；4 月预计碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 1.1%至 8 万吨。需求维持旺季态势，4 月三元材料 产量预计环比增加 7%至 6.2 万吨；4 月磷酸铁锂产量预计环比增加 0.7%至 26 万吨。库存方面，周 度库存环比增加 1633 吨至 13.1 万吨，其中其他环比下降，上下游均有增加。 3. 价格或将在 7 万元/吨附近震荡运行，短期关注上游停减产情况， ...

工业硅日报 点评 10 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 42190 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.01%，持仓增仓 475 手至 36458 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 190 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2505 收于 9555 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.84%，持仓减仓 5635 手至 14.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10560 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最 低交割品#553 价格降至 9450 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 65 元/吨。企业联合减产量级有 限且需求持续疲弱，硅厂关于后续减产扩大与否仍未达成共识，难以形成持续有效 去库效果。预计减产在消息端有一定稳定市场情绪作用，但过剩压力高企状态下， 市场对再次减产的反应将逐步弱化。4 月多晶硅交割业务开启，交仓承载结构性需 求，但现货成交未见增速，且期现贸易商和厂家关于远月定价意见分歧。因缅甸地 震导致国内西部拉棒厂家出现焖锅、炸棒、炸炉等情况，下游订单交付期延后，库 存压力显现后，短期晶硅盘面形成压制。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.27%，报收 67.13 美分/磅，CF505 上涨 2.03%，报收 12820 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 48399 手 34.26 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14024 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下跌 259 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14144 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日下降 320 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面影响仍在继续，美通胀数据意外 | | | | 低于预期，降息预期增加，美元指数大幅下行。特朗普关税政策也是市场关注焦 | | | | 点，特朗普叫停对部分国家关税政策，但对中国加征 125%关税，未来变数仍然较 | | | | 大，需密切关注。国内市场方面，面对美关税政政策，外交部发言人称"如果美方 | | | | 执意打关税战、贸易战，中方必将奉陪到底"。市场情绪提振，多数商品走强，郑 | | | | 棉期价重心随之上移。对于后市，我们认 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 1 1 日 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2005-2009 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差：数据 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.9%至 8977.5 美元/吨。宏观方面，美国 3 月 CPI 同比上 | LME | | | | 涨 7 个月来最低水平，低于预期 2.5%和前值 2.8%明显下降；核心 CPI 同比上 | 2.4%，为 | | | | 涨 2021 年 3 月以来最低记录，低于预期 3%和前值为 3.1%。美国通胀超预期 | 2.8%，创 | | | | 降温，市场本应处在美联储降息预期增强的利好中，但贸易冲突升级的威胁压倒了通胀 | | | | | 放缓的利好，成为市场关注的焦点，在美政府对部分国家暂缓实施后，投资者担忧情绪 | | | | | 不降反增，美股、美元遭抛售。国内方面，关注金融市场表现，股市是国内短线情绪风 | | | | 铜 | 向标。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2500 吨至 209425 吨；SMM 铜社会库存周四统计较 | | | | | 3.5 万吨至 26.72 万吨。需求方面，高铜价风险释放并回 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | | 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2507 收涨 3.06%，报 2901 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2506 收涨 2.84%，报 3399 元/吨。此 | | | | 前特朗普表示，美国暂缓实施对部分贸易伙伴的"对等关税"， | | | | 为期 90 天，在此期间内，继续对所有美国贸易伙伴征收 10%的基 | | | | 准关税，受此影响油价出现反弹带动昨天日盘 FU 和 LU 价格小 | | | | 幅回升。截至 4 月 7 日当周，新加坡燃料油库存录得 2202.1 万桶， | | | | 环比前一周增加 31.3 万桶（1.44%）；富查伊拉燃料油库存录得 | | | 燃料油 | 1328.5 万桶，环比前一周增加 24.3 万桶（1.86%）。由于套利经济 | 震荡 | | | 性欠佳，来自欧洲的套利货流入量受到抑制。此外，中东即将进 | | | | 入夏季发电高峰期，当地未来几月的燃料油出口量将明显减少， | | | | 高硫供应阶段 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 04 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 月 10 日，A 股市场高开震荡，大幅上涨，Wind 全 A 收涨 1.93%，成交额 | | | 1.66 | 万亿元。中央汇金和多家大型国有金融机构资金入市，稳定市场信心， | | | | 商贸零售、纺织服饰等板块领涨。中证 1000 指数上涨 2.21%，IM 贴水收窄， | | | | 主力合约贴水 58.13 点。中证 500 上涨 2.12%，沪深 300 上涨 0.99%，上证 50 | | | | 上张 0.88%。当日凌晨，美国对全球关税政策再次调整，同时就行对华加码， | | | | 使得中国出口美国商品加权税率可能升至 137%（12%+125%）左右。国务院 | | | 股指 | 发布《中美经贸关系中方立场白皮书》，阐述中方立场，释放谈判诚意。此 | 震荡 | | | 外，近期多国与美国开启贸易谈判，需关注第三国是否以对华加征关税为契 | | | | 机寻求美国降低对该国的关税。该政策同样对 A 股产生长远影 ...