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广发期货《农产品》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 04:13
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 壬浅辉 Z0019938 2025年4月23日 | | | 原田 | | | 4月22日 4月21日 涨跌 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 江苏一级 8270 8140 130 1.60% | | | 期价 Y2509 7852 7790 62 0.80% | | | 墓差 Y2509 418 350 ୧୫ 19.43% | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏4月 05 + 380 05+380 0 - | | | 仓单 3735 3735 0 0.00% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | 棕榈油方面,基本面上产量进入季节性增长阶段,可能会抑制马棕的反弹空间。且期 | | | 现价 广东24度 9000 9000 0 0.00% | | | 期价 P2509 8568 8540 28 0.33% | | | 基差 P2509 432 460 -28 -6.09% | | | 05 +480 05+480 0 现货墓差报价 广东4月 - | | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 8592.5 8600.7 -8.2 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 03:59
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月23日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 或新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -50.95 | 0.73 | 4.90% | 4.70% | | 期现价差 | H期则价差 | -19.14 | 2.27 | 11.00% | 9.10% | | | IC期现价差 | -138.21 | 4.37 | 1.20% | 0.60% | | | IM期现价差 | -179.71 | 2.93 | 70.00% | 2.80% | | | 次月-当月 | -27.60 | -1.20 | 10.60% | 14.20% | | | 李月-当月 | -85.20 | -1.80 | 0.40% | 9.80% | | | 元月-当月 | -108.60 | -9.00 | 1.60% | 15.80% | | ...
《能源化工》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 02:52
些业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月23日 费新活 Z0019144 苯乙烯上游 | 品种 | 4月22日 | 4月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent原油(6月) | 67.4 | 66.3 | 1.2 | 1.8% | 美元/桶 | | CFR日本石脑油 | 576.0 | 573.0 | 3.0 | 0.5% | 美元/吨 | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 790.0 | 790.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | CFR韩国纪本 | 732.0 | 737.0 | -5.0 | -0.7% | | | CFR中国纯苯 | 747.0 | 752.0 | -5.0 | -0.7% | | | 纯本-石脑油 | 171.0 | 179.0 | -8.0 | -4.5% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 214.0 | 217.0 | -3.0 | -1.4% | | | 纯苯华东现货价 | 6180.0 | 6230.0 | -50.0 | -0.8% | 元/吨 | ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 02:52
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Market macro sentiment has improved, commodities have rebounded collectively, and the soda ash futures market has stabilized and rebounded in the past two days. However, from a fundamental perspective, production has gradually reached a high level, and the weekly production has recovered to over 750,000 tons. With the resumption of production, soda ash factories still face significant inventory pressure. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short term [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has been fluctuating, closing down 400 yuan/ton to 38,020 yuan/ton. After a sharp decline, the price has rebounded somewhat. The weekly production of polysilicon has slightly increased, and inventory has also risen, while silicon wafer inventory has decreased. The cost support line for polysilicon has shifted downward due to the sharp decline in industrial silicon prices. Attention should be paid to changes in production and demand [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized. The SI2505 contract first declined and then rebounded, falling 60 yuan/ton to 8,835 yuan/ton. The price is under pressure due to oversupply and continuous inventory accumulation. The downstream demand for polysilicon and organic silicon remains weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest region and further production reduction plans of other enterprises [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the phenological conditions in major domestic and overseas production areas meet the seasonal tapping conditions, and the expectation of new rubber supply is strong, which suppresses rubber prices. On the demand side, the sales of semi - steel tire enterprises have not improved significantly, and the inventory pressure has increased, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The domestic market for all - steel tires is weak, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected that rubber prices will be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 14,000 - line support for the main contract [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - **Glass**: North China quoted 1,260 yuan/ton, East China 1,370 yuan/ton, Central China 1,180 yuan/ton, and South China 1,330 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 was at 1,061 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and Glass 2509 was at 1,130 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The 05 basis was 186 yuan/ton, down 6.53% [1]. - **Soda Ash**: North China quoted 1,500 yuan/ton, East China 1,450 yuan/ton, Central China 1,400 yuan/ton, and Northwest 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda Ash 2505 was at 1,289 yuan/ton, down 1.16%, and Soda Ash 2509 was at 1,315 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The 05 basis was 226 yuan/ton, up 7.11% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate was 89.50%, up 1.65% from the previous period, and the weekly production was 755,600 tons, up 2.43%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 158,500 tons, unchanged, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 94,240 tons, up 2,500 tons or 2.73% [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory was 65.203 million weight boxes, down 0.19%. Soda ash factory inventory was 1.7113 million tons, up 1.08%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 402,700 tons, down 4.84%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 19.5 days, up 7.79% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area decreased by 20.00% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51%, completion area increased by 5.27%, and sales area increased by 1.81% [1]. Polysilicon Prices and Spreads - The average price of N - type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of P - type cauliflower polysilicon was 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material spread increased by 11.17%, and the cauliflower material basis increased by 7.87%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 3.38%, and the average price of P - type silicon wafers (210mm) remained unchanged. The average price of single - crystal PERC battery cells and components remained unchanged [2]. - The PS2506 futures contract was at 38,020 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production was 13.57 GW, up 0.74%. The average cost of the polysilicon industry was 37.52 yuan/kg, down 4.75%. In March, polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 6.66%. In February, polysilicon imports were 29,000 tons, up 25.50%, exports were 20,000 tons, down 10.40%, and net exports were - 9,000 tons, down 1067.95%. In March, silicon wafer production was 50.76 GW, up 5.05%. In February, silicon wafer imports were 60,000 tons, down 32.03%, exports were 590,000 tons, up 28.29%, and net exports were 530,000 tons, up 42.57%. The demand for silicon wafers in February was 57.67 GW, up 39.70% [2]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory was 251,000 tons, up 2.87%, and silicon wafer inventory was 18.22 GW, down 4.86% [2]. Industrial Silicon Prices and Spreads - East China's oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 950 yuan/ton, up 6.74%. East China's SI4210 industrial silicon was 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 950 yuan/ton, up 6.74%. Xinjiang's 99 - silicon was 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 6.38%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In March, the national industrial silicon production was 342,200 tons, up 18.20%. Xinjiang's production was 210,800 tons, up 26.57%, Yunnan's was 12,300 tons, down 14.58%, and Sichuan's was 4,600 tons, up 170.59%. The national operating rate was 57.80%, up 13.29%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 78.05%, up 30.41%, Yunnan's was 19.97%, down 2.16%, and Sichuan's was 0.49%, up 53.13%. In March, the production of organic silicon DMC was 168,500 tons, down 10.32%, polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 6.66%, and the production of aluminum alloy in February was 268,000 tons, up 11.67%. In February, industrial silicon exports were 44,200 tons, down 15.82% [4]. Inventory - Xinjiang's factory inventory was 209,200 tons, down 7.72%. Yunnan's inventory was 24,000 tons, down 0.41%. Sichuan's inventory was 22,500 tons, down 0.22%. The social inventory was 611,000 tons, down 0.16%, the warehouse receipt inventory was 349,500 tons, down 0.46%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory was 261,500 tons, up 0.23% [4]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Yunnan's state - owned whole - milk rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The whole - milk basis was - 135 yuan/ton, up 54.24%. Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The non - standard price difference was - 135 yuan/ton, up 30.77%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber was 51.15 Thai baht/kg, up 1.39%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue was 56.20 Thai baht/kg, up 0.81%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 1.63%, and the price of natural rubber glue was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 2.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, Thailand's production was 346,400 tons, down 37.99%, Indonesia's was 197,600 tons, down 0.50%, India's was 74,000 tons, down 31.48%, and China's in December was 67,400 tons, down 51.44%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.44%, down 0.08%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.43%, down 0.72%. In March, domestic tire production was 107.446 million pieces, up 1.79%, tire exports were 62.29 million pieces, up 42.34%, natural rubber imports were 594,100 tons, up 18.07%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 760,000 tons, up 11.76%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 12,838 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, and the production profit was - 874 yuan/ton, down 114.22% [5]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory was 619,180 tons, down 0.24%. The natural rubber factory's futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,911 tons, down 1.04%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses showed various changes [5].
原木期货日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 02:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the log market is loose. New Zealand has lowered its offer price to $110, and the cost reduction has pulled down the market valuation to a certain extent. The overall demand is suppressed by the shrinkage of building materials and is lower than expected. The market sentiment was weak yesterday, with heavy volume decline near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the support level around 780 yuan [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all decreased on April 22 compared to April 21, with decreases of -2.28%, -1.64%, and -2.10% respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and 07, 09, 11 contract basis also changed. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports showed different trends, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged. The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also changed slightly [2]. Supply - In March, the port throughput was 161.3 million cubic meters, a 23.05% increase compared to February. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 18.37%. From April 21 - April 27, the expected number of arriving ships of coniferous logs at 18 ports decreased by 45% week - on - week, and the expected arrival volume decreased by 28% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of April 18, the log inventory was 351 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to April 11. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of April 18, the daily average log outbound volume was 6.51 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.65 million cubic meters compared to before, and the demand decreased week - on - week [3].
《金融》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:47
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月23日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 或新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -50.95 | 0.73 | 4.90% | 4.70% | | 期现价差 | H期则价差 | -19.14 | 2.27 | 11.00% | 9.10% | | | IC期现价差 | -138.21 | 4.37 | 1.20% | 0.60% | | | IM期现价差 | -179.71 | 2.93 | 70.00% | 2.80% | | | 次月-当月 | -27.60 | -1.20 | 10.60% | 14.20% | | | 李月-当月 | -85.20 | -1.80 | 0.40% | 9.80% | | | 元月-当月 | -108.60 | -9.00 | 1.60% | 15.80% | | ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macroeconomic factor: Tariffs are the core variable for asset pricing. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs. The pricing of copper in Q1 was mainly based on the expected spread of US copper import tariffs. The current spread between US and LME copper is around 10%, and the inventory trend is no longer differentiated, but the tariff factor still supports copper prices. - Fundamental factor: Demand is strong, with higher copper rod operating rates and basis, and better domestic inventory destocking. The copper ore supply remains tight. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging from 76,000 to 79,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina operating capacity remains high, but recent supply - side production cuts due to losses have increased, and there are potential supply risks in Guinea's mines, which support short - term prices. - Demand side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is operating at a high level, with overall stable demand and limited incremental demand. The export window for domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. Currently, prices are close to costs, and marginal changes in the supply side may lead to price rebounds. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 19,000 to 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of loose zinc ore supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the loose ore supply has been smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be more abundant. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and operating rates have weakened. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis, and spot transactions are average. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs, and the tariff pressure has been relatively relieved. In the future, zinc prices may move down if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies; otherwise, they may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply side: Recently, the ore end has shown some signs of loosening. Although some upstream producers have carried out maintenance and production cuts in April, overall production has increased significantly since March, and the arrival of overseas ore has also increased, resulting in clear supply pressure. The incremental supply of lithium carbonate in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand side: Overall demand is relatively stable, but the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. Power orders are acceptable, but the number of energy - storage export orders is at risk of decline due to tariff policies. In May and June, which are usually off - peak seasons, the pressure may be greater. Currently, the market is in a situation of clear supply - demand contradiction, with weakening support at the raw material ore end and intensified long - short capital games at low valuations. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 66,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Market sentiment: The stainless - steel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and the market was mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Spot prices were generally stable. - Supply side: Some domestic steel mills have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the stainless - steel production plan for April remains at a high level. - Demand side: Demand has certain resilience but is still slowly recovering. Household appliance consumption has a certain driving effect, and previous export orders have recovered well, but export orders to the US have stagnated due to tariffs. Downstream procurement is mainly for just - in - time needs, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and inventory pressure has eased slightly. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - Market sentiment: The Shanghai nickel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and market sentiment was temporarily stable. - Supply side: Indonesia's new nickel product royalty policy is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. The pre - sale of Philippine nickel ore resources in May has been concentrated. - Demand side: Refined nickel spot transactions are generally average, and the spot premiums of most brands are stable. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Supply side: The processing fees of smelters are running at a low level. The import of tin ore from January to March decreased year - on - year. The earthquake in Myanmar affected the resumption of production, and the Bisie mine in Congo has resumed production, relieving the supply pressure to some extent. - Demand side: Driven by domestic policies, the operating rate of soldering tin has improved, but mainly in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. In the future, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 645 yuan/ton to 77,195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.84%. The basis of various copper types also changed to varying degrees. - Fundamental data: In March, electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, up 6.04% month - on - month; imports were 308,800 tons, up 15.24% month - on - month. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31 percentage points to 78.07%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 540,000 tons to 1.965 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.56% [1]. Aluminum - Price and spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 19,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 510,000 tons to 6.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.04%. - Fundamental data: In March, alumina production was 7.549 million tons, up 8.85% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.3396 million tons, up 11.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum processing industries showed different changes [3]. Zinc - Price and spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. - Fundamental data: In March, refined zinc production was 546,900 tons, up 13.70% month - on - month; imports were 33,700 tons, down 15.27% month - on - month; exports were 400 tons, down 91.04% month - on - month. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by 126,000 tons to 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.93% [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64%. - Fundamental data: In March, lithium carbonate production was 79,065 tons, up 23.44% month - on - month; demand was 87,002 tons, up 15.07% month - on - month. In April, the production capacity was 133,522 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month; the operating rate was 45%, up 20 percentage points month - on - month [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore was mostly stable, while the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/nickel point. - Fundamental data: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in 43 Chinese enterprises was 3.4401 million tons, up 11.37% month - on - month; the production in Indonesia's Qinglong was 420,000 tons, down 6.67% month - on - month. Stainless - steel exports increased by 70.98% month - on - month to 470,600 tons [10]. Nickel - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 126,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. - Fundamental data: In March, China's refined nickel product production decreased by 5.69% month - on - month to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% month - on - month to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% week - on - week to 30,594 tons [12]. Tin - Price and basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 258,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.35%. - Fundamental data: In March, tin ore imports were 8,323 tons, down 4.83% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,080 tons, up 7.33% month - on - month; imports were 2,101 tons, up 12.41% month - on - month; exports were 1,673 tons, down 29.50% month - on - month [13].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:45
| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月23日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3160 | 3180 | -20 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3190 | -20 | 62 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3240 | 3260 | -20 | 132 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3006 | 3039 | -33 | 154 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3075 | 3113 | -38 | 85 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3108 | 3142 | -34 | 52 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3220 | 3260 | -40 | 24 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | র্ব | | | 热卷现货 ...
全品种价差日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:34
| 硅铁 (SF506) | 91.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 312 | 5.51% | 5978 | 5666 | 6000 | 190 | 3.27% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM509) | 5810 | 55.50% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 85 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3075 | 3160 | 2.76% | 46.10% | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 49 | 3220 | 40.00% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3171 | 1.55% | 热卷(HC2510) | | | | | | 711 | 92 | 803 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 12.93% | 65.30% | 1520 | -10 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...
《农产品》日报-20250423
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the long - term view remains cautiously bearish as the current downward trend is well - maintained. In China, palm oil is expected to show a phased oscillatory upward trend due to low port inventories and slow customs clearance of soybeans. For soybean oil, CBOT soybean oil has upward momentum due to positive fundamentals in the US, while in China, supply is tight, supporting the basis price [1]. Cotton Industry - Short - term domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly. Downstream demand is weak but has rigid needs, and there is some pressure and support for cotton prices. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in Xinjiang and macro - economic trends [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar market will oscillate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern as it lacks effective driving factors, although there is resistance to price drops [3]. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is mostly sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed is average. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a possible decline later [5]. Meal Industry - The upward trend of US soybeans lacks sustainable drivers. Brazil's soybean supply pressure is increasing, and China's soybean arrivals will be abundant. In the short term, due to slow customs clearance, meal demand for pre - May Day stocking has boosted the basis price. Caution is advised in disk operations [7]. Corn Industry - In the short term, corn prices will oscillate within a range. There is support from reduced supply and increased demand for pre - May Day stocking, but the upside is limited by factors such as high inventories and the need to clear warehouses before the wheat harvest. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [10]. Pig Industry - Pig prices lack the power for continuous upward movement in the short term. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of second - fattening pigs' market supply around May Day [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,270 yuan, up 1.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,852 yuan, up 0.80%. The basis of Y2509 was 418 yuan, up 19.43%. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8,568 yuan, up 0.33%. The basis of P2509 was 432 yuan, down 6.09%. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,360 yuan, up 0.86%; the futures price of 01509 was 9,340 yuan, up 0.95%. The basis of 01509 was 20 yuan, down 28.57% [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of cotton 2505 was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the price of cotton 2509 was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,082 yuan, up 0.07%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,218 yuan, up 0.06% [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 23, the price of sugar 2505 was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.40%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5,978 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 6,210 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 6,050 yuan, down 0.08% [3]. Egg Industry - On April 23, the price of the egg 06 contract was 3,028 yuan/500KG, down 0.62%; the price of the egg 09 contract was 3,817 yuan/500KG, up 0.18% [5]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On April 22, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,520 yuan, up 2.03%; the futures price of M2509 was 3,054 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis of M2509 was 466 yuan, up 15.06%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,540 yuan, up 0.79%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,658 yuan, up 1.03%. The basis of RM2509 was - 118 yuan, down 6.31% [7]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On April 23, the price of corn 2507 was 2,324 yuan/ton, up 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan, up 20.69%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 was 2,684 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the 7 - 9 spread was - 67 yuan, up 4.29% [10]. Pig Industry - On April 23, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The 7 - 9 spread was 815 yuan, down 6.86% [15].