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红枣异动点评:市场情绪偏弱,盘面继续下探
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 09:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of jujube futures, CJ2601, continued last week's downward trend, closing at 10,390 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.20%, with a trading volume of 377,382 lots and an open interest of 185,516, a daily reduction of 2,314 [1]. - With the early jujube harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5]. - Looking ahead, as the new - season jujubes gradually increase in volume and the old - season high inventory weighs on the market, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand, the futures price fluctuates downward rapidly. The current futures price basically corresponds to the lower edge of the new - season mainstream price of 6.5 - 8 yuan/ton, and there may be certain support around 10,000 - 10,300 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Pressure - In the new season, affected by the solar terms, the jujube harvest time is earlier than last year. The overall mainstream price of new - season jujubes is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, significantly higher than that of the same - grade old jujubes, and the market acceptance of new jujubes is limited [2]. - The old - season inventory is high. The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9,103 tons, an increase of 94 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. The steel union predicts that the old - season social inventory is estimated to be 30 - 350,000 tons, which can make up for the expected reduction in the new - season output [2]. Weak Demand and Sentiment - In the main sales areas such as Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangzhou Ruyifang, the arrival volume is average, about 3 - 4 vehicles per day, and the morning market trading volume is about 1 - 2 vehicles. The downstream consumption is cautious, mainly purchasing on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [3]. - Previously, due to the uncertainty of the new - season output, the futures price fluctuated sharply. Now, the expected reduction in production has been basically reflected in the price. With the early harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5].
广发期货《农产品》日报--20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 08:02
1. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but long - term prices are not optimistic due to increasing supply pressure. Short - term disk operation may be strong, but the space is limited, and the medium - long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve. It is advisable to wait for the current round of spot prices to stabilize before entering the market for reverse spread trading [2]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract increased by 35.71% to - 225. The prices of "Live Pig 2511" and "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.22% and 0.20% respectively. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Hunan increased, while those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei decreased. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29% to 162,425. The weekly white - striped pork price dropped by 100% to 0.00 yuan. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively [2]. - **Supply - related Data**: The monthly inventory of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% to 4,038 million heads, and the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27% to 127.90 kg [2]. 2. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure and may continue to decline, but there is a chance of stabilization after the release of the MPOB report. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure. The impact of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has weakened, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but the basis may remain stable due to the oil mills' price - holding psychology [6]. Summary of Key Data - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, the futures price of "P2601" decreased by 0.11%, the basis increased by 7.58%, and the import profit decreased by 6.42% [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The influence of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has declined. The domestic inventory is high, but the basis may be stable. The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.07%, and the basis decreased by 2.29% [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10,000 yuan, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.04%, and the basis decreased by 18.43% [6]. 3. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Sino - US negotiations are progressing positively, and the US soybean price is rebounding. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but the crushing profit has deteriorated, and the inventory is high. The spot price is expected to remain weak, and the meal lacks a continuous upward driving force. The disk has support around 2,900 [8]. Summary of Key Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2,960 yuan, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.17%, and the basis increased by 1250.00% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2,420 yuan, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.60%, and the basis increased by 33.80% [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan, the futures price of the main contract of "Soybean No.1" decreased by 0.22%, and the basis increased by 4.23% [8]. 4. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while that in the North China is falling. The overall corn harvest progress exceeds 80%, and the selling pressure exists under a bumper harvest. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. Summary of Key Data - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2601" decreased by 0.33% to 2,133 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 104 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1.58% to 1,760,731 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.44% to 2,280 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 25.64% to 29 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 3.15% to 298 yuan [10]. - **Processing Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 35.53% to 1,793 [10]. 5. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Brazilian sugar supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum, and the current bottom - shock and weak pattern may continue [14]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.20% to 5,446 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.04% to 48 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.84% to 408,160 [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 2.92% and 3.11% respectively. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [14]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons [14]. 6. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton raw materials is resilient, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, the cotton price faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2601" decreased by 0.44% and 0.26% respectively. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.44% to 200,900 [15]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of "3128B" increased slightly, and the 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons [15]. 7. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly in the first half of the week but may decline slightly in the second half due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound faces resistance around 3,200 [17][18]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The prices of "Egg 11 Contract" and "Egg 01 Contract" increased by 0.98% and 1.98% respectively. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 9.23% to - 426 [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.65% to 2.98 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 14.91% to - 102 [17]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks increased by 1.92% to 2.65 yuan/feather, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 7.97% to 2.31 [17].
广发期货《金融》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:34
Report on Stock Index Futures Price Difference Core Information - On October 27, 2025, the report presented data on stock index futures price differences, including price differences between futures and spot, across different periods, and among different varieties [1]. - For price differences between futures and spot, the IF was -0.34, the IH was 2.78, the IC was -98.73, and the IM was -121.24 [1]. - Regarding cross - period price differences, there were various values for different combinations such as “next month - current month”, “far month - current month” etc. For example, the “next month - current month” of F was -13.60 [1]. - In terms of cross - variety ratios, IC/IF was 1.5448, IC/IH was 2.3486, etc. [1]. Report on Bond Futures Basis and Price Difference Core Information - On October 24, 2025, the report provided data on bond futures basis, cross - period price differences, and cross - variety price differences [2]. - For basis, the TS was 1.2902, the TF was 1.5400, the T was 1.6139, and the TL was 1.7674 [2]. - Regarding cross - period price differences, different combinations like “current quarter - next quarter” had specific values. For example, the “current quarter - next quarter” of TS was 0.0780 [2]. - In terms of cross - variety price differences, TS - TF was -3.2830, TS - T was -5.6730, etc. [2]. Report on Precious Metals Futures and Spot Core Information - On October 24, 2025, the report included data on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. - Domestic futures closing prices: the AU2512 contract was 938.10, and the AG2512 contract was 11332 [3]. - Foreign futures closing prices: the COMEX gold主力合约 was 4126.90, and the COMEX silver主力合约 was 48.41 [3]. - Spot prices: London gold was 4111.56, and London silver was 48.62 [3]. - Basis: “gold TD - Shanghai gold主力” was -2.77, “silver TD - Shanghai silver主力” was -15, etc. [3]. - Price ratios: COMEX gold/silver was 85.25, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 82.78 [3]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Core Information - On October 27, 2025, the report covered spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [4]. - Spot quotes: MAERSK Maersk was 2364 dollars/FEU, CMA CGM was 3425 dollars/FEU, etc. [4]. - Container shipping indices: SCFIS (European route) was 1140.38 points, SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, etc. [4]. - Futures prices: EC2602 was 1601.0, EC2604 was 1179.6, etc. [4]. - Fundamental data: global container shipping capacity supply was 3327.99 million TEU, port on - time rate in Shanghai was 42.77%, etc. [4].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:33
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are rebounding due to secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are not optimistic. Short - term futures operations may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the supply pressure in the medium - and long - term is difficult to ease [2]. Oil Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic palm oil futures may also be weak. US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, and the spot price is difficult to improve. The meal lacks a continuous upward drive, but there is support at the cost end [8]. Corn Industry - Corn prices are still likely to be weak due to selling pressure from a bumper harvest. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is also under pressure [10]. Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the international raw sugar price is likely to be weak. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum and may be supported [14]. Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises have certain demand for cotton, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, there is hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline, and the main contract may face pressure around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with a change rate of 35.71%. Futures prices of contracts such as "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" declined slightly. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in Henan and Hunan rising, and those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei falling [2]. Spot Indicators - Daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.29%, weekly white - strip prices dropped by 100%, and weekly self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively. The monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.10% to 40.38 million heads [2]. Oil Industry Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic Dalian palm oil futures may also seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil - US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Canola Oil - The spot price of canola oil decreased slightly, and the basis also declined [6]. Spreads - Spreads such as the three - oil inter - period spread and the palm oil inter - period spread showed different changes [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.68%, the futures price decreased slightly, and the basis increased significantly. The crushing margins of imported soybeans from Argentina and Brazil showed different trends [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41%, the futures price decreased, and the basis increased. The crushing margin of imported rapeseed from Canada decreased [8]. Soybeans - The spot and futures prices of soybeans in different regions changed slightly, and the basis also changed accordingly [8]. Spreads - Spreads such as the soybean meal inter - period spread and the oil - meal ratio showed different changes [8]. Corn Industry Corn - The futures price of corn decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the north - south trade profit and import profit decreased [10]. Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch decreased, the basis increased, and the profit of Shandong starch increased [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of sugar contracts such as "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, and the open interest and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14]. Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price differences with domestic sugar also changed [14]. Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased significantly. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% [14]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of cotton contracts such as "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [15]. Spot Market - Spot prices such as the Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index increased slightly, and the price differences with futures contracts also changed [15]. Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased significantly, industrial inventory decreased, and imports increased by 42.9% [15]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures prices of egg contracts such as "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price of eggs increased, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. Related Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicks increased, the price of culled hens decreased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [17].
《能源化工》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Recently, due to more unplanned PP maintenance, the supply recovery pace has slowed; PE maintenance has gradually peaked, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand has improved, downstream开工率 has risen, and both inventories are decreasing. The cost side provides strong support, and the weighted profits of PP and PE have narrowed again. In the short - term, driven by macro warming, stronger costs, and expected production cuts due to sanctions, PP and PE have rebounded from low levels. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract will have less new production in the future, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [2]. Pure Benzene - Recently, with the restart of some pure benzene plants and the expected new production capacity, domestic supply remains abundant. Most downstream products of pure benzene are in loss, and some secondary downstream products have high inventories. There are more shutdowns and planned maintenance of styrene plants, so demand support is limited. The inventory in East China ports has increased slightly, and the supply pressure has risen. The overall supply - demand outlook is still loose, and price drivers are limited. In the short - term, BZ2603 itself has weak drivers and fluctuates with oil prices and styrene [3]. Styrene - Under the dual pressure of inventory and industry profits, there are more shutdowns and maintenance of styrene plants. Although two new plants have been put into operation, the overall supply pressure still exists. Demand support is limited due to economic conditions and high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound of styrene is expected to face pressure. EB12 price rebounds should be treated as short - selling opportunities [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Recently, due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants, supply has shrunk compared to expectations. Demand has increased with a new PTA plant's planned operation and improved terminal orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation has improved. However, due to the overall weak expectations of oil prices and PX supply - demand, the rebound space is limited. Short - term long positions should be closed at high levels, and short - selling opportunities can be considered when Brent oil exceeds $65 per barrel [4]. - **PTA**: With the recovery of some PTA plant loads and the upcoming operation of new plants, the spot basis is generally weak. But due to improved terminal orders, downstream polyester sales have increased, and the basis has been repaired. In the short - term, the price has been boosted by stronger oil prices and improved PX supply - demand expectations, but the rebound space is limited. TA short - term long positions should be closed when chasing high, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Recently, due to maintenance of some plants and port closures, the inventory is expected to decrease slightly next week. Cost - side oil and coal prices are strong, driving MEG to rebound. However, the long - term supply structure is weak, and there is high inventory accumulation in November - December, so the upside pressure is large. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold at high levels, and EG1 - 5 can be reversed at high levels [4]. - **Short - fiber**: The weekly supply - demand is stable. Supply remains high, and demand has improved with the decrease in temperature, but the ability of downstream to chase prices is weak, and processing fees have been compressed. The improvement in demand and the strength of the cost side are not sustainable, so the rebound space is limited, but the price support is strong due to low inventory. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100, and should be shorted when it is above 1000 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is no news of further production cuts in October. In the traditional off - season of demand in the fourth quarter, demand support is insufficient, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory - building period. PR fluctuates with the cost side. In the short - term, the processing fee will decline, but attention should be paid to the change of plant load and new production capacity. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [4]. Methanol - This week, the port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The willingness to hold inventory has weakened, and both price and basis have declined. The decline in the inland market is even deeper. Overseas, many plants have shut down. On the demand side, many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and more maintenance is expected. The current market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventory and potential supply reduction. Although the start - up rate of traditional downstream has increased slightly, the MTO load has decreased significantly, and demand support is insufficient. In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and industry profits are shrinking with increasing losses. So, the demand - side support for caustic soda is weak in the short - term, and the market price lacks support. In the medium - term, as the demand purchase cycle approaches, downstream has restocking needs, and the price is expected to have some support. From the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated restocking in the fourth quarter, and the spot liquidity may tighten. In the non - aluminum aspect, after the National Day, there may be purchasing intentions due to low prices as the non - aluminum inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to non - aluminum restocking. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and track the downstream restocking rhythm [7]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC disk stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. This week, the supply load is low due to many maintenance plants, but it is expected to increase next week. Domestic downstream start - up rates remain low, and orders are limited, with downstream mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The cost of raw materials (calcium carbide) has been rising, but the space is limited, and the ethylene price may decline next week. The cost side provides bottom support. In the future, the logic of a weak peak season is expected to continue, and the disk will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and short - term trading strategies can be considered [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices have declined. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 have increased. Some spot prices have changed slightly, and the basis of North China LL and East China pp has increased [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: PE and PP inventories have decreased. The PE plant start - up rate has decreased slightly, while the downstream weighted start - up rate has increased. The PP plant start - up rate has decreased, the powder start - up rate has increased, and the downstream weighted start - up rate has also increased [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene and their related spreads have also changed. The import profits of pure benzene and styrene have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have increased. The start - up rates of some plants in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of downstream polyester products and their cash flows, as well as PX, PTA, and MEG - related prices and spreads have all changed [4]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: MEG port inventory has increased, and the arrival expectation has decreased. The start - up rates of various plants in the polyester industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The prices of MA2601, MA2605, and spot methanol in different regions have changed. The spreads and basis have also changed [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: Methanol inventories (enterprise, port, and social) have increased. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream methanol plants have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC in different forms and regions have changed. The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC (factory and social) have decreased slightly [7].
《金融》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views No explicit core views are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide data on various financial products such as stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping, including the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical quantiles, etc. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is -0.34 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 32.70%, and the IC futures - spot spread is -98.73 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 19.20% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, e.g., for F, the next - month minus current - month is -13.60 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.30% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.5448 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 85.20% [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the TS basis is 1.2902 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 12.50%, and the TF basis is 1.5400 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 40.10% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For example, the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts for T is 0.3300 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 43.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: On October 24, 2025, the TS - TF spread is -3.2830 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 12.80% [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 938.10, down -0.44% from the previous day, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4126.90, down -0.39% [3]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is -2.77 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 44.50%, and the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis is -15 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 67.80% [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 85.25, up 0.10% from the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 82.78, up 0.74% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.02, up 0.2% from the previous day, and the US dollar index is 98.94, up 0.01% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 87015 kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the COMEX gold inventory is 38877087, down -0.21% [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On October 27, 2025, the MAERSK price for Shanghai - Europe in the next 6 weeks is 2364 dollars/FEU, down -0.38% from the previous day, and the CMA CGM price is 3425 dollars/FEU, up 3.54% [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on October 20 is 1140.38 points, up 10.52% from October 13, and the SCFIS (US West route) is 863.46 points, up 0.11% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the EC2602 contract is 1601.0, up 1.20% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is -368.6, down 8.89% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on October 27 is 3327.99 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai in August is 42.77, up 133.59% from the previous month [4].
《有色》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:07
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].
《特殊商品》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:07
| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月27日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1140 | | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 1260 | | 1270 | -10 | -0.79% | | | 华中报价 1150 | | 1150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1240 | | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 1236 | | 1256 | -20 | -1.59% | | | 玻璃2509 1327 | | 1343 | -16 | -1.19% | | | 05基本 -96 | | -116 | 20 | 17.24% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...
《黑色》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:07
Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the steel industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The current week saw a good recovery in the apparent demand for the five major steel products, approaching last year's levels, but the off - balance sheet demand for steel is lower year - on - year. The inventory of plates is high, and there are expectations of blast furnace production cuts in Tangshan. If the production cuts can relieve the inventory pressure of plates, steel prices are expected to stabilize. The carbon element cost at the cost end is supportive, and iron ore is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, which may lead to an expansion of the ratio of steel to ore. Steel prices have fallen significantly previously, and steel mill profits have declined. Before the plate inventory is relieved, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3,000 and 3,200 yuan respectively and then enter a sideways consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, continue to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and gradually exit the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Steel mill profits will continue to converge before the steel production and inventory are cleared [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of steel products in different regions and processes showed different trends. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1 tons, an increase of 2.9% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [2]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.4 to 9.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7 tons, an increase of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.3 to 226.0 tons, an increase of 2.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 11.2 to 326.7 tons, an increase of 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the iron ore industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, iron ore futures bottomed out and stabilized. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first decrease and then increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, pig iron production decreased from a high level, and the steel mills' demand for restocking weakened. The steel production decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, the inventory decreased, and the post - holiday demand gradually recovered but was lower than expected. The port inventory increased, the port handling volume decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased, increasing the inventory pressure. Looking forward, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is changing from balanced and tight to loose, and the weak performance of finished products will drag down raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, with the reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly declined. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 5.5 to 824.9 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 to 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 126.0 to 3333.5 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily port handling volume of 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decrease of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 5.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory increased by 54.7 to 14423.59 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the coke and coking coal industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot market's rhythm was inconsistent with the futures market. The mainstream coke enterprises' second - round price increase was implemented, and there is still a possibility of further price increases. The coking coal price rebounded from the bottom, providing cost support, but the coking enterprises' losses led to a decline in production. The steel mill's pig iron output decreased from a high level, steel prices were weak, and downstream demand was not strong during the peak season. The coking plant and steel mill inventories decreased, while the port inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the production reduction in the Mongolian coal pithead and the increase in Shanxi's auction prices have led to concerns about supply, causing coal and coke to rebound from the bottom. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Last week, coking coal futures rose strongly, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The Mongolian coal quotation continued to rise. After a slight decline in the domestic coking coal market after the holiday, it began to rebound, and downstream procurement and restocking increased. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The imported Mongolian coal's customs clearance volume decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotation was strong. The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decline, and there was a restocking demand after significant inventory reduction after the holiday. The coal mine, coal washery, and steel mill inventories decreased, while the coking plant, port, and port - side inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short - term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the price of the coke 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1758 yuan/ton, and the price of the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1249 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.9 to 848.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 4.7 to 433.5 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [8]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory remained unchanged at 891.9 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.4 to 58.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the steel mill's coke inventory decreased by 6.3 to 633.2 tons, a decrease of 1.0%, and the port inventory increased by 4.9 to 200.1 tons, an increase of 2.5% [8]. The Fenwei coal mine's clean coal inventory decreased by 9.9 to 90.3 tons, a decrease of 9.9%. The all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 32.3 to 1029.7 tons, an increase of 3.2%, the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 5.4 to 783.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%, and the port inventory increased by 2.9 to 275.7 tons, an increase of 1.1% [8].
《农产品》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but in the long run, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the outlook for pig prices is not optimistic. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the risk of holding arbitrage positions increases [2]. 2.2 Oil Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure due to concerns about slow exports. There is a possibility of further decline, but there may be a chance of stabilizing and rebounding after the release of the MPOB report risk. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure and seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The influence of the US soybean oil's own fundamentals has declined. The domestic inventory is at a high level, the basis is under pressure, but the oil mills may have a certain price - holding mentality due to losses in crushing margins [6]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The Sino - US negotiations are progressing, and the export prospects of US soybeans are improving. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the crushing margins are deteriorating, and the oil mills' reluctance to sell has increased. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to be weak this year. The soybean meal lacks a continuous upward driving force, and the disk has support around 2900 [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while the price in North China has declined again. The overall corn harvest progress is over 80%, and there is still selling pressure under a bumper harvest. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Brazil's supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic sugar price has a weak intention to follow the decline, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have improved, and the rigid demand for cotton raw materials is resilient. The new cotton cost has increased, which supports the cotton price. However, the cotton price also faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. The egg price may rise slightly in the short term but may decline slightly in the second half of the week due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound should pay attention to the pressure level around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with an increase rate of 35.71%. The prices of "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112397. The number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased, and the monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Oil Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Oil - The current price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8450 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased slightly, the basis decreased by 2.29%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.99% [6]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The current price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import cost increased slightly, the import profit decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "OI601" increased slightly, the basis decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The spreads of different varieties showed different trends, such as the three - oil inter - period spread increased, while the palm oil and rapeseed oil inter - period spreads decreased [6]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2960 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased significantly, the import crushing margins of Argentina and Brazil showed different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2420 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased, the basis increased, the import crushing margin of Canada decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 9.40% [8]. 3.3.3 Soybeans - The current prices of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of the main contracts decreased slightly, the bases increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The inter - period spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio showed different trends, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The futures price of "corn 2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, the prices of ports and trade profits showed different trends, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of "corn starch 2601" decreased slightly, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the starch - corn 01 spread decreased, the profit of Shandong starch increased, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased [14]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the bases increased, the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic sugar decreased [14]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, the cumulative sales rate in the whole country decreased, the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased, the industrial inventory in the whole country decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased. The sugar import volume increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly, the 5 - 1 spread decreased to 0, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased significantly [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot prices increased slightly, the spreads between spot and futures contracts increased, and the spread between the CC Index and the FC Index decreased [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased significantly, the industrial inventory decreased slightly, the import volume increased, the bonded area inventory decreased slightly, the inventory of the textile industry increased year - on - year, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth increased, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased, the processing profit of textile enterprises decreased, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the export situation of textile products showed different trends [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - The futures prices of "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price in the egg - producing area increased, the basis increased, the 11 - 01 spread decreased, the price of chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [17]. 3.7.2 Market Situation - The inventory of laying hens is high, the egg supply is sufficient, the demand may first increase and then decrease, and the egg price may first rise slightly and then decline slightly [17][18].