Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo
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鸡蛋:情绪转弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoint - The sentiment of the egg market has weakened [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] Summary by Related Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2602 is 3,002 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the trading volume decreased by 4,107 while the open interest decreased by 1,094. The closing price of egg2603 is 3,027 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily decrease of 0.13%, and the trading volume decreased by 82,684 while the open interest increased by 2,233 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg2 - 3 spread is -25, unchanged from the previous day, and the egg3 - 9 spread is -894, up from -925 the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 3.60 yuan/jin, 3.40 yuan/jin, and 3.70 yuan/jin respectively. The Hubei spot price dropped from 3.76 yuan/jin to 3.67 yuan/jin [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price increased from 2,365 yuan/ton to 2,369 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price remained at 3,100 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - hog price dropped from 13.43 yuan/kg to 13.38 yuan/kg [1]
铁矿石:价格走弱,关注下游补库节奏
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:17
Report Title - The report is titled "Iron Ore: Weakening Prices, Focus on Downstream Restocking Rhythm" [2] Report Date - The report is dated January 21, 2026 [1] Core View - The price of iron ore is weakening, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or -0.57%. The position was 586,412 hands, down 29,929 hands [3] - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices decreased, with declines of 5 yuan/ton for Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), and Jimbara fines (61%), and a 3 yuan/ton decline for Super Special fines (56.5%). Domestic ore prices remained unchanged [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis for I2605 against Super Special fines increased by 1.2 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jimbara fines decreased by 0.9 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton. The spreads between Carajás fines and PB fines, PB fines and Jimbara fines remained unchanged, and the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 20, the 1-year LPR was 3% and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, both unchanged from the previous month [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]
工业硅:商品情绪回落,逢高布空思路,多晶硅:关注现货成交价
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:17
2026 年 01 月 21 日 工业硅:商品情绪回落,逢高布空思路 多晶硅:关注现货成交价 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价(元/吨) | 8,745 | -100 | 110 | 275 | | | | Si2605成交量(手) | 338,306 | -52,808 | 68,230 | -7,978 | | | | Si2605持仓量(手) | 224,552 | -10,615 | -17,917 | 13,742 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价(元/吨) | 50,700 | 195 | 1,695 | - | | | | PS2605成交量(手) | 10,115 | -2,120 | -18,264 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量(手) | 43,632 | -939 | ...
尿素:震荡整理,下方空间收窄
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | (元/吨) | 1,775 | 1,772 | 3 | | | | 结算价 | (元/吨) | 1,768 | 1,781 | -13 | | | | 成交量 | (手) | 175,891 | 115,182 | 60709 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 | (手) | 233,074 | 235,887 | -2813 | | | | 仓单数量 | (吨) | 13,355 | 13,355 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | (万元) | 621,930 | 410,186 | 211744 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -25 | -22 | - 3 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | (运费约100元/吨) | -145 | -142 | - 3 | | | | 东光-盘面 | (最便宜可交割品 ...
国泰君安期货:纸浆:震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pulp is -1, indicating a "weakly bearish" outlook. The rating scale ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to be in a weakly bearish trend. The current market has a bearish fundamental pattern due to high domestic inventories and weak demand. The downstream paper industry has limited order releases and maintains only刚需 purchases, which drags down the raw material pulp market. Attention should be paid to the demand sentiment changes in the broadleaf pulp market, the impact of the futures market on the spot market, and whether there will be a small - scale restocking demand before the Spring Festival [4]. - The price of the household paper market fluctuates within a certain range, with little change in overall trading activity. The cost - side support of raw material pulp for household paper is weak, and the terminal demand is tepid. Paper mills are facing shipment pressure, and the de - stocking process has slowed down. In the current supply - demand game, attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and paper mill shipment conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,352 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume was 190,404 lots, an increase of 3,735 lots, and the open interest was 253,759 lots, an increase of 4,461 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 139,554 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,459 lots to - 18,534 lots [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main Contract" decreased by 14 to 74, and the basis of "Goldfish - Futures Main Contract (Non - Standard)" decreased by 14 to - 726. The month - to - month spread of "SP03 - SP05" remained unchanged at - 34 [3]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Coniferous Pulp**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,250 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Silver Star is 710 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Broadleaf Pulp**: The domestic prices of broadleaf pulp brands such as Goldfish, Star, Tai, and Brazilian Broadleaf are 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Star is 590 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Chemimechanical Pulp and Unbleached Pulp**: The domestic price of Chemimechanical Pulp (Kunhe) is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of Unbleached Pulp (Venus) is 5,000 yuan/ton, with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3].
碳酸锂:供给扰动,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend due to supply disturbances [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 160,500 yuan, the trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots. For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 161,360 yuan, the trading volume was 72,870 lots, and the open interest was 123,437 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 27,681 lots [3]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - 2605 was -8,000 yuan, the spot - 2607 was -8,860 yuan, and the 2605 - 2607 basis was -860 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan, and the spot - CIF was 39,395 yuan [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,985 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,710 yuan [3]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 151,850 yuan, etc. [3]. - **Consumer Products**: The prices of various lithium - related consumer products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate are also provided in the report [3]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 154,099 yuan/ton, up 2,434 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Spodumene Imports**: In December, the import volume of lithium spodumene increased compared with November, reaching 788,500 physical tons. The imports from Canada increased significantly, reaching 33,500 tons. The imports from Zimbabwe were 132,200 tons, a 19.85% increase, and those from Mali were 77,000 tons, a 5.24% increase. The imports from Australia decreased by 27.18% to 309,500 tons, and those from Nigeria decreased by 13.12% to 80,000 tons [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month but a 14% decrease year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 243,000 tons, a 3.4% increase year - on - year [5]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].
短纤:短期震荡市,加工费低位运行20260121,瓶片:短期震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
2026 年 01 月 21 日 短纤:短期震荡市,加工费低位运行 20260121 瓶片:短期震荡市 20260121 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6490 | 6376 | 114 | PF02-03 | -4 | -22 | 18 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6494 | 6398 | 96 | PF03-04 | -42 | -46 | ব | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧3୧ | 6444 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -54 | 37 | -91 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 179671 | 193804 | -14133 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.440 | 6. 435 | 5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190619 | 189910 | 709 | 短纤产销率 | 102% | 76 ...
胶版印刷纸:空单离场
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
胶版印刷纸:空单离场 2026 年 1 月 21 日 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:基本面数据(元/吨) 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【趋势强度】 双胶纸趋势强度:0 注 :趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强,-2 表示最看空,2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 山东市场:高白双胶纸山东市场主流意向成交价格在 4650-4750 元/吨,部分本白双胶纸价格在 4400- 4500 元/吨区间,价格较上一工作日稳定,另有部分小厂货源价格偏低。规模纸厂维持正常开工,部分中 小厂排产意愿一般;市场新签订单有限,经销商去库节奏偏慢。 期货研究 | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/20 | 2026/1/19 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | | | | | ...
苯乙烯:偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the styrene industry is "stronger oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term styrene exports continue to exceed expectations, the downstream replenishment cycle begins, leading to a rapid market rebound. It will mainly be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. Overseas styrene plant maintenance in the first quarter drives marginal market benefits. New domestic supply is limited, and the downstream 3s shows stronger - than - expected resilience, triggering a short - term positive feedback in the market. This round of styrene rebound drives pure benzene up. Pure benzene currently has large physical pressure, but the long - term expectation is gradually improving [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Styrene futures prices: Styrene 2601 was 6,994 (unchanged from the previous day), Styrene 2602 was 7,203 (-92 from the previous day), Styrene 2603 was 7,248 (-100 from the previous day) [1] - Spreads and profits: EB - BZ was 1,655 (-90 from the previous day), non - integrated profit was 386 (-78 from the previous day), integrated profit was 1,055 (+109 from the previous day) [1] - Contract spreads: EB01 - 02 was -209 (+92 from the previous day), EB02 - 03 was -45 (+8 from the previous day) [1] - N + 1 contract was 7,310 (-40 from the previous day), N + 2 contract was 7,345 (-45 from the previous day) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1] 3. Spot News - There is a situation of weak pure benzene and strong styrene, with a high - level spread. Overseas styrene plant maintenance in the first quarter leads to continuous export negotiations. Domestic new supply is limited, and the downstream 3s has stronger - than - expected resilience [2]
螺纹钢:原料市场扰动,偏弱震荡,热轧卷板:原料市场扰动,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 02:12
2026 年 1 月 21 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢:原料市场扰动,偏弱震荡 热轧卷板:原料市场扰动,偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 (元/吨) | 涨跌 (元/吨) | 涨跌幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,111 | -37 | -1.18 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,276 | -32 | -0.97 | | | | 昨日成交 (手) | 昨日持仓 (手) | 持仓变动 (手) | | | RB2605 | 936,583 | 1,741,235 | 13,280 | | | HC2605 | 471,822 | 1,486,145 | -15,864 | | | | 昨日价格 (元/吨) | 前日价格 (元/吨) | 涨跌 (元/吨) ...