CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨，较上周上涨1.3万吨，环比上涨31.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2025年10月9日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：207.7万吨，较上期累库4.4万吨，环比上涨2.2%，库存量在本 周期呈现累库的走势。本周期纸浆国内主流港口青岛港库存数量呈现去库走势，节日期间因天气原因，港口卸货速度减缓，导致去库；港外库存数量较港内多，港 内出货速度亦有所减缓。本周期常熟港库存呈现累库的趋势 ...

李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观 风险 豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：长假期间印尼 B50 消息刺激盘面反弹，但产地供给端并未出现实际偏紧信号，MPOB 报告超预 期累库中止涨势，整体仍维持区间运行，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 2.28%。 豆油：假期内美豆及美豆油平稳运行，小幅反弹为主，美豆收割及巴西播种进度加快，豆油难以出现 独立驱动，跟随油脂板块震荡为主，豆油 01 合约周涨 1.99%，周五晚间特朗普再次展现对华贸易态度强 硬，关注下周开盘形势。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告证实马来 9 月库存在 230 万吨以上的压力，亦验证了此前观察到的产地销售意愿 强烈，9 月以来马来 UCO FOB 与 CPO FOB 价差明显缩小，暗示马来国内消费回归正常的趋势，但对于国内 消费迅速回到 33 万吨水平不必太过悲观，欧洲 UCO 制 HVO 利润继续走强，备货潮暂未结束，30 万吨以上 的国内消费能够保证，但马来官方 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 工业硅：库存转累库，供需存走弱预期 多晶硅：周末行业会议召开，政策逻辑仍存 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存累库。据咨询商统计，本周新疆地区开工抬升，西南地区开工减少，整体 周产环比减少。西北地区，新疆工厂陆续复产，且本次复产进度较超市场预期，亦会对供应构成增量。此外， 西南地区预计将在 10 月底起逐步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10500-11000 元/吨（对标 SI2512 合约）。不过，月度来看，10 月份上游环节新疆工厂复产、西南减产偏少，整体 10 月份月产将环比 增加，预计 10 月工业硅产量(原生)将达到 44 万吨。库存来看，本周期货仓单环比上周基本不变。SMM 统 计本周社会库存累库 0.2 万吨，厂库库存累库 0.5 万吨，整体行业库存累库，后续关注期货仓单的注册情 况。 工业硅需求端，下游多晶硅及有机硅板块支撑消费。多晶硅视角，短期硅料周度排产依旧高位，对工业 硅采购亦有支撑。有机硅端，本周有机硅周产小减，对工业硅需求维持刚需，有机硅终端尚未出现起色，整 体消费上方空间不大。铝合金端，整体刚需订单，实际交易量未见明显增 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月12日 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：盘面转入弱势，FU相对偏强 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格持续下跌，目前已经来到年内低点。高硫方面，市场成交有小幅好转，升贴水有所上升，中东发运量维持高位，但俄罗斯在 近期遭遇国内燃料短缺以及无人机袭击导致的炼油产能下线，因此其高硫出口数量未来很难恢复，这将对整个亚太现货市场产生支撑。低硫 方面，亚太地区目前没有明显的供应缺口，各地现货仍在正常发运，但8月新加坡船燃销量数据较好，需求端有一定支撑。内盘方面，配额问 | | --- | --- | | | 题已经被市场充分计价，但舟山地区继续发生累库，盘面仍有仓单。此外，LU与新加坡现货仍然存在价差，这意味着一旦内盘出现短缺，进 | | | 口将成为有效的补充，因此LU的估值近期将持续受到压制，可能将使得LU短期内继续弱于FU。 | | 估值 | FU：2650~3000 LU：3150~3450 | | | 1）单边：FU、LU跟随原油下跌，短期进入弱势周期 | | 策略 | 2）跨期：F ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Stock index options are experiencing a downward increase in volatility, and the skewness of some varieties has shifted to negative skew [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and other indexes all declined. Their trading volumes also decreased, except for the Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, and other ETFs, which showed an increase [3]. - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, Shanghai Composite 50 ETF Option, and other options decreased, while the trading volumes of the CSI 300 Index Option, Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF Option, and other options increased. The open interest of most options increased [3]. - **Option Volatility Statistics**: The ATM-IV of most options increased, and the HV also showed an upward trend. The skewness of some options shifted to negative skew [6]. 3.2 Option Index Data Statistics - **PCR (Put-Call Ratio)**: The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of most options are relatively high, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market [3]. - **Maximum Open Interest**: The maximum open interest of call options and put options in the near - month contracts of different options varies, which can reflect the market's expectations of the future price range of the underlying assets [3]. 3.3 Option Charts - **Volatility Cone and Volatility Term Structure**: Different option varieties have different volatility cone and volatility term structure charts, which can help analyze the historical and current volatility levels and term structure characteristics of options [10][14][20]. - **PCR Chart and Skewness Chart**: The PCR chart and skewness chart of different option varieties can reflect the market sentiment and the probability distribution of the underlying asset price changes [10][15][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility of financial options is negatively correlated with the underlying asset's movement, and the market's bullish sentiment has declined [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Option Market Trading Overview - The total daily average trading volume of all options is 10.129 million lots, with a total daily average turnover of 11.5072668 billion yuan. The trading volume and turnover of each option variety vary, with ETF options generally having higher trading volume and turnover compared to index options [1] 2. Option Volatility Statistics - On the last trading day of the week, the ATM - IV, IV change, same - term HV, HV change, Skew, Skew change, VIX, and VIX change of different options are presented. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai 50 Index Options is 15.25% with a 1.67% change, and its same - term HV is 17.36% with a 7.97% change [3] 3. Option Liquidity - Multiple charts are used to show the changes in total trading volume, total open interest, total turnover, total trading market value, and total open - interest market value of financial options, as well as the trading volume and open - interest proportions of each option variety [4][6][8] 4. Option Volatility Level - Last week, there was a divergence between the at - the - money implied volatility (ATM - IV) and historical volatility (HV) of options. The current ATM - IV of different options ranges from 15.25% to 44.43%. The underlying assets and ATM - IV showed a negative correlation last week, with correlation coefficients ranging from - 2.62% to - 84.04% [9][23][29] 5. Option Market Bull - Bear Sentiment - The Put - Call - Ratio (PCR) indicator of options can reflect the market's bull - bear sentiment to some extent. Multiple charts show the PCR trends and daily -环比 incremental percentages of different options [36][37][38] 6. Market Support and Resistance Levels - The key support and resistance levels of different option underlying assets are provided. For example, the key support level of the Shanghai 50 Index is 2900, and the resistance level is 3000; the key support level of the CSI 1000 Index is 7000, and the resistance level is 7600 [52]

期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指对冲周报 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | （正文） 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1：股指期货基差 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2510 | -6.29 | -3.03 | 3.26 | 4.3% | | IF2511 | -17.69 | -16.43 | 1.26 | 4.5% | | IF2512 | -22.69 | -24.63 | -1.94 | 4.2% | | IF2603 | -45.49 | -45.03 | 0.46 | 3.7% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IH2510 | -0.34 | 1.15 | 1.49 | ...

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 观点综述 | 月度观点综述 | | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 炼厂开工与产量方面，全球主要产区燃料油产量总体上升，但俄罗斯地区炼厂开工下降明显，其燃料油 | | 产量以及出口数量环比明显下降。需求方面，中东发电需求开始逐步接近尾声，沙特9月燃料油进口数量 | | | 继续下降，而炼化端中国、印度等地的燃料油进口仍然没有明显的增长。 | | | 价格与价差 硫的裂解也相对低硫更强。 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内涨跌互现，各地高硫价格走势明显强于低硫，同时部分地区高 | | 高硫方面，中东出口维持高位，9月内整个亚太区域现货成交相对清淡，成交升贴水呈现低位震荡形态。 | | | 需要注意的是，俄罗斯炼油产能由于乌克兰无人机袭击，目前有20%左右的产能处于下线状态；同时，由 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指基差系列： 风偏下行的双向波动可能持续 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ "九三"共识兑现过后各板块出现结构性过热后的价值回归，A 股成交温和缩量，单日成交逐 步下滑至 2.2 万亿左右，热点题材的虹吸效应增强，板块轮动加速，宽基指数先下跌后缓慢 修复，多数指数月线涨幅收窄，双创指数月线表现依然强势，涨幅在 10%以上，中小盘受伤较 重，中证 2000 月线转跌。 ◼ 月初调整过后，各品种日度级别的基差变化与指数变动的关联较弱，多数交易日呈现双向波 动，同时日内 1min 级别的基差变化在品种间分歧依然较大，这或许说明当前期货场内风险偏 好并未改善，仍然是相对无序的状态。截至 9 月末，各品种年化基差率回升至近三年以来 20% 分位数附近。 ◼ 产品端来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil has abundant copper resources with diverse deposit types, mainly distributed in the south and northeast, and has great potential for growth in copper reserves and production [1][53]. - Brazil's relatively complete mineral resource law attracts foreign investment in the mining industry, but there are also restrictions on foreign capital inflows that may affect mining investment [1][17]. - The continuous improvement of Brazil's mining law system and policies support the development of key minerals for energy transition, promoting the rational and efficient development of Brazil's mineral resources [25]. - Brazil's copper mine production is on the rise, and its copper concentrate exports are also increasing, with China being the largest export destination [2][46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of Brazilian Copper Resources - **Geological Conditions and Deposit Types**: Brazil is located in the Brazilian Basin with ancient and complex geology, characterized by "Three Shields and Three Basins," and has rich copper resources. Different from other regions, Brazil has more composite - type copper deposits, with the top four types accounting for 85% of the total [7][8]. - **Distribution of Copper Mines**: Brazilian copper mines are mainly distributed in the south and northeast, such as the Carajás region, Amazon Basin, and some states like Pará, Bahia, etc. These areas are important bases for the Brazilian copper mining industry [8]. - **Growth Potential of Reserves and Production**: As of 2022, Brazil's copper reserves were 11.2 million tons, accounting for 1.30% of the global total. The estimated copper resource volume is 32.93 million tons. In 2024, the copper production was 425,000 tons, accounting for 1.86% of the global total. With the attraction of international investment, there is great potential for growth in copper reserves and production [12]. 2. Optimization of Brazilian Mineral Resource Law and its Impact on the Copper Industry - **Attraction of Foreign Investment through Laws**: Brazil's mining management has a sound legal system. The current Mining Code was revised in 2022. The law encourages and protects exploration and mining activities, especially foreign investment. It also provides preferential tax policies and relaxed foreign - ownership restrictions for new copper projects [17][20][21]. - **Restrictions on Foreign Capital Inflows**: Brazil has strict foreign exchange control policies, and transferring profits out of the country may face challenges and high taxes. Additionally, political, policy, and force - majeure risks may make foreign investors cautious [23][24]. 3. Release of Brazilian Copper Mine Production Capacity - **Overall Production Trend**: In 2024, Brazil's copper mine production was 388,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 473,200 tons in 2027, showing an upward trend [26]. - **Production of Major Mines**: - **Vale**: Salobo copper mine's production is expected to increase steadily from 199,900 tons in 2024 to 250,000 tons from 2025 - 2027, and continue to rise after 2028. Sossego copper mine's average production from 2025 - 2027 is expected to be 60,000 - 70,000 tons per year, and about 50,000 tons per year after 2028 [2][29]. - **Lundin Mining**: Chapada copper mine's average production from 2025 - 2030 is expected to be about 42,000 tons [37]. - **Ero Copper**: Caraíba's production is expected to be 37,500 - 42,500 tons in 2025, 40,000 - 45,000 tons in 2026, and 45,000 - 50,000 tons in 2027. Tucumã's production is expected to be 37,500 - 42,500 tons in 2025, 45,000 - 50,000 tons in 2026, and decline to 40,000 - 45,000 tons in 2027 [2][42][43]. - **Silver - colored**: Serrote copper mine's copper concentrate production is stable at about 25,000 tons [2][54]. 4. Increase in Brazilian Copper Exports - **Export Trend**: Brazilian copper exports are on the rise, slightly higher than domestic production, indicating limited or no copper - smelting capacity in Brazil, and most of the copper concentrates are for export [3][46]. - **Export Destinations**: Brazil mainly exports copper to China and some European countries, with China being the largest export destination, accounting for 26% of total exports. From 2025 - 2027, Brazil's copper concentrate exports to China are estimated to increase by 6,500 tons, 10,400 tons, and 5,200 tons respectively [3][47].