Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend due to supply disturbances [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 160,500 yuan, the trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots. For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 161,360 yuan, the trading volume was 72,870 lots, and the open interest was 123,437 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 27,681 lots [3]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - 2605 was -8,000 yuan, the spot - 2607 was -8,860 yuan, and the 2605 - 2607 basis was -860 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan, and the spot - CIF was 39,395 yuan [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,985 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,710 yuan [3]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 151,850 yuan, etc. [3]. - **Consumer Products**: The prices of various lithium - related consumer products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate are also provided in the report [3]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 154,099 yuan/ton, up 2,434 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Spodumene Imports**: In December, the import volume of lithium spodumene increased compared with November, reaching 788,500 physical tons. The imports from Canada increased significantly, reaching 33,500 tons. The imports from Zimbabwe were 132,200 tons, a 19.85% increase, and those from Mali were 77,000 tons, a 5.24% increase. The imports from Australia decreased by 27.18% to 309,500 tons, and those from Nigeria decreased by 13.12% to 80,000 tons [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month but a 14% decrease year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 243,000 tons, a 3.4% increase year - on - year [5]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

2026 年 01 月 21 日 短纤：短期震荡市，加工费低位运行 20260121 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260121 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6490 | 6376 | 114 | PF02-03 | -4 | -22 | 18 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6494 | 6398 | 96 | PF03-04 | -42 | -46 | ব | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧3୧ | 6444 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -54 | 37 | -91 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 179671 | 193804 | -14133 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.440 | 6. 435 | 5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190619 | 189910 | 709 | 短纤产销率 | 102% | 76 ...

胶版印刷纸：空单离场 2026 年 1 月 21 日 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【趋势强度】 双胶纸趋势强度：0 注 ：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 山东市场：高白双胶纸山东市场主流意向成交价格在 4650-4750 元/吨，部分本白双胶纸价格在 4400- 4500 元/吨区间，价格较上一工作日稳定，另有部分小厂货源价格偏低。规模纸厂维持正常开工，部分中 小厂排产意愿一般；市场新签订单有限，经销商去库节奏偏慢。 期货研究 | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/20 | 2026/1/19 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the styrene industry is "stronger oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term styrene exports continue to exceed expectations, the downstream replenishment cycle begins, leading to a rapid market rebound. It will mainly be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. Overseas styrene plant maintenance in the first quarter drives marginal market benefits. New domestic supply is limited, and the downstream 3s shows stronger - than - expected resilience, triggering a short - term positive feedback in the market. This round of styrene rebound drives pure benzene up. Pure benzene currently has large physical pressure, but the long - term expectation is gradually improving [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Styrene futures prices: Styrene 2601 was 6,994 (unchanged from the previous day), Styrene 2602 was 7,203 (-92 from the previous day), Styrene 2603 was 7,248 (-100 from the previous day) [1] - Spreads and profits: EB - BZ was 1,655 (-90 from the previous day), non - integrated profit was 386 (-78 from the previous day), integrated profit was 1,055 (+109 from the previous day) [1] - Contract spreads: EB01 - 02 was -209 (+92 from the previous day), EB02 - 03 was -45 (+8 from the previous day) [1] - N + 1 contract was 7,310 (-40 from the previous day), N + 2 contract was 7,345 (-45 from the previous day) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1] 3. Spot News - There is a situation of weak pure benzene and strong styrene, with a high - level spread. Overseas styrene plant maintenance in the first quarter leads to continuous export negotiations. Domestic new supply is limited, and the downstream 3s has stronger - than - expected resilience [2]

2026 年 1 月 21 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,111 | -37 | -1.18 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,276 | -32 | -0.97 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 936,583 | 1,741,235 | 13,280 | | | HC2605 | 471,822 | 1,486,145 | -15,864 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the coke and coking coal industries are "Oscillating Weakly" under the dual influence of macro and micro factors [1]. Core View - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton (-4.3%); the closing price of J2605 was 1673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2605 had a trading volume of 1,088,191 lots, an open interest of 532,732 lots, and an open interest change of 29,998 lots; J2605 had a trading volume of 22,017 lots, an open interest of 38,429 lots, and an open interest change of 792 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan, which decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 50.5 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton; the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory price increased by 47.5 yuan/ton to - 141.5 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 and JM2609 remained unchanged at - 79.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur primary coking coal (S0.7) was 1608, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.3) was 1260, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.6) was 1249 [1]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 19, the total online auction listing volume of coking coal was 294,000 tons, with a failure - to - sell rate of 1%, a 5% decrease from last Friday. The average premium was 33.15 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was active, with most prices rising by 8 - 46 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for coke is 0, and for coking coal is also 0 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE futures have continued to decline, with the upstream conducting low - price pre - sales and the mid - and downstream replenishing short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but after the decline in the futures market, trading has weakened significantly, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6640, with a daily decline of 0.40%. The trading volume was 442,747, and the position increased by 9,748 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 110 (compared to - 97 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 24 (unchanged from the day before) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price yesterday was 6,530 yuan/ton (compared to 6,570 the day before); in East China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,720 the day before); in South China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,800 the day before) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market has continued to decline. The upstream has carried out low - price pre - sales, and the mid - and downstream have replenished short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth, and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but trading has weakened significantly after the decline in the futures market, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - PP production remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6461, with a daily decline of 0.32%. The trading volume was 358,242, and the open interest decreased by 4,253. The 05 contract basis was -131, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of Beihua, Donghua, and South China remained stable at 6300 yuan/ton, 6330 yuan/ton, and 6450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price declined, the upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, and traders mainly focused on overall sales. The basis was stable, and the trading atmosphere weakened significantly in the second half of last week. The year - end demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The number of warehouse receipts remains high. The PP US dollar market price is stable, and the trading is difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE in terms of internal and external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply End**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The container shipping index (European route) is currently in a temporary consolidation phase, influenced by factors such as the accelerating decline of spot prices and the uncertainty in geopolitical situations. The market is affected by different factors in terms of supply (capacity), demand, and geopolitical risks, leading to different outlooks for various contracts. [1][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European route) showed weak consolidation. The main contract 2604 closed at 1112.6 points, with a 77 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 1.44%. The secondary main contract 2606 closed at 1317.4 points, with a 273 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 0.33%. [1][9] 3.2 Capacity Analysis - The shipping schedules on the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Overall, the capacity from 1/26 - 3/1 remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending sailing. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. [10] - The Spring Festival suspension of shipping was mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 TEU, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively. The capacity pressure after the festival was relatively higher. [10] 3.3 Geopolitical Situation - The instability in Iran has increased, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the East Coast of the United States and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans. After the market closed yesterday, CMA CGM decided to divert east - bound vessels on the FAL1, FAL3, and MEX routes around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal. [11] 3.4 Demand Side - On January 8, 2026, China adjusted the export VAT rebate policy. The export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026, and the export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This may lead to 2 - 5 TEU of transportation demand for European routes and 4 - 7 TEU for European - Mediterranean routes being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush for shipping is expected to occur from late February to March. However, it is unlikely to change the oversupply situation in March. [12] 3.5 Spot Freight Rates - The FAK average in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. The Maersk's European base container prices in the 5th and 6th weeks decreased by about $700/FEU in total. Different alliances and shipping companies also had varying degrees of price adjustments. [13] 3.6 Contract Analysis - For the 2602 contract, the valuation may be around 1700 points, and it is expected to have narrow - range position - reducing fluctuations in the future. - For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal positive impact from the rush of photovoltaic and battery product shipments in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April. It is recommended to consider rolling short positions in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points. - For the 2606 contract, the short - term influencing factor is the resumption rhythm. If it fails to resume in June, it may be a relatively good long - position contract. It may have a small premium in the short - term and remain in a consolidation phase in the medium - term. It should be treated with a wide - range consolidation strategy. - For the 2610 contract, the upper pressure level refers to the settlement price of 1161 points for the 2510 contract. Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran. [14][15] 3.7 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral position. [15]