硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月12日 ◼ 本周锰矿价格坚挺，锰硅波动幅度有限，硅铁价格受基本面压力影响走势震荡偏弱，合金市场当前仍以观望为主。 | 基本面 | 条 | 锰硅（内蒙古） | 硅铁(宁夏） | 目 | 当期值 | 当期值 | 比 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环 | 环 | 周产量（周） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11 | 58 | 0 | 00% | 3 | 49% | 20 | 42 | -1 | 07% | 15 | 82% | 供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate mainly due to the resonance of macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless - steel price is likely to fluctuate weakly next week as macro and real - world factors exert pressure, and while cost restricts its elasticity, the cost marginally declines [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up put pressure on the nickel market. Trade war escalation and expected new pure - nickel production in the second half of the year increase supply, while alloy use of nickel - iron instead of nickel plates suppresses demand. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally, the inventory build - up problem in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase market concerns about nickel - ore supply governance, and the nickel - ore premium shows signs of stabilization and a slight increase [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [5]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The demand for stainless steel is suppressed by tariffs and weak post - real - estate cycle consumption. The overall apparent demand growth rate has converged. The trade - war resurgence may pressure long - term demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but actual production may fall short of expectations. The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers due to significant holiday inventory build - up, high upstream inventory, and weak peak - season demand. Cost provides a bottom - support, but short - term nickel - iron price drops may lead to cost adjustments [2]. - **Inventory**: In September, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 1.054 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% [5]. New Energy Market Inventory - On October 10, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. On September 26, the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 months - on - month to 14.0 days. On October 9, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.1 months - on - month to 7.1 days [5]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine. The Indonesian government also sanctioned 190 mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits. The Indonesian government requires companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online from October 1 to November 15 [6][7]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he may impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. Futures Research Data - **Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180, down 2,300; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,780, down 80. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 159,070, an increase of 28,206; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,027, a decrease of 17,063 [9]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel - bean premium, and various product price spreads and import profits are provided [9].

黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价小幅回调 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 国内宏观：供给端投资下滑，期待需求端发力 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind、Wind、富宝资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09 2023/01 2023/05 2023/09 2024/01 2024/05 2024/09 2025/01 2025/05 2025/09 元/吨 螺纹主连 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 | 2025/10/10 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | ...

国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 铁矿石周度观点 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观风偏显著回调，估值承压 | | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 条 目 全球发货量 | 当周值 3279 | 0 | 环 比 -196 | 4 | 同 比 297 | 8 | 全球发货 | 40W2025 123475 | 1 | 40W2024 122196 | 7 | 累计同比 1278 | 4 | 1 | 累计同比% 0% | | | | 澳发货量 | 1902 | . 3 . | . -45 . | 4 | . 136 . | 7 | 澳发货 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Coal and Coke Weekly View [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke may continue weak and volatile due to repeated macro - expectations [3] - After pre - holiday restocking, post - holiday demand is weak and trading atmosphere is cold [4] - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively small marginal contradictions, and the current disk valuation may be dominated by macro factors [5] Group 4: Coal and Coke Fundamentals Data Supply - For coal, FW raw coal is 836.67 (- 39.93), FW clean coal is 426.31 (- 25.64); for coke, independent coking plants' daily average is 66.12 (+ 0.04), and steel mills' coking plants' daily average is 46.38 (- 0.16) [7] Demand - Iron and steel water production is 241.54 (- 0.27) for both coal and coke [7] Inventory - MS total inventory for coal is - 78.8, with various changes in different sectors; for coke, MS total inventory is - 10.1, independent coking + 1.5 [7] Profit - Commodity coal profit is 466 (+ 14), and coking enterprises' average profit is 9 (+ 45) [7] Warehouse Receipt - Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1176, and Rizhao standard first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1568 [7] Group 5: Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly and monthly production data are presented in multiple charts, including 523 sample mine production rates, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume [10][14][16] Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, sample mine raw coal inventory increased by 2.72 tons to 165.05 tons, and clean coal inventory increased by 6.48 tons to 111.16 tons [27] - Port inventory: This week, coking coal port inventory is 294.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.8 tons [29] - Coking plant inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented in different regions and production capacities [32][34][36] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented for 247 steel enterprises and in different regions [37] Group 6: Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including different production capacity levels and regions [40][42] - Production: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including daily average production [44][46] Inventory - Coking plant inventory: Data of full - sample and 230 independent coking plants are presented [48] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory, available days, and regional breakdown are presented [49][51][52] - Total inventory: Coke total inventory data are presented [54] Demand - Iron production data are provided, and the supply - demand difference is analyzed [56][57] Profit - Coke profit data, including disk profit and average profit of independent coking enterprises, are presented [58][59][60] Group 7: Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [63] - Coke futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [65] Month - spread - Month - spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [68] Spot - Spot price data of coking coal and coke are presented [71] Basis - The coking coal spot has a premium over the 01 contract, and basis data are presented [74][75][76]

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：宏观扰动加剧，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性偏弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Special report ...

邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 碳酸锂：宏观压制价格，偏弱运行 供应：周度产量再创新高至 20635 吨，云母冶炼企业通过外购原料进行生产。藏格矿业公告正式收到 自然资源部颁发的《不动产权证书（采矿权）》与《采矿许可证》，将采矿权期限变更为 2025 年 8 月 10 日 至 2029 年 12 月 1 日，新增矿盐、镁盐、锂矿、硼矿等共伴生矿种。 需求：短期现货市场表现强劲。宏观方面，商务部、海关总署公告，对锂电池、正极材料、石墨负极 进行出口管制，其中锂电池包含能量密度≥300Wh/kg 的电芯、电池组以及制造电池的设备；正极材料包 含压实密度≥2.5 g/cm3 且克容量≥156mAh/g 的铁锂、三元前驱体等，主要影响固态和少量三元需求。 美国总统特朗普表示将自 2025 年 11 月 1 日起对中国商品加征 100%关税，作为现有关税的额外措施。若 中国提前采取进一步行动，美国相关措施可能提前生效。预计对新能源车影响有限，可能对动力电池产生 影响，但体量小，对储能电池影响较大。 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 生猪：去库不通畅，现货底未现 | ﺍﻟﻤ 문 皇 | 周小球 | | --- | --- | | 好: | 投资咨 | 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（9.29-10.12） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.4 元/公斤（上周 24.55 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.13 元/公斤（上周 12.58 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1566 元/头（上周 1590 元/ 头）。供应端，集团出栏进度偏慢，散户存在扛价意愿，供应宽松；需求端，节前备货量级偏大，节后宰 量回落，部分二育积极入场。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.46KG（上周 124.35KG）， 出栏均重环比上升 0.09%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2511 合约最高价为 11905 元/吨，最低价为 11320 元/吨，收盘价为 1132 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1. 特朗普宣称对中国加征额外100%关税，并实施严格的出口管制。美东时间2025年10月10日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将从2025年11月1 日起，对所有从中国进口的商品加征额外100%的关税。这一措施将叠加在现有关税基础上，使总关税水平达到130%或更高。同时，特朗普 表示，美国将对"所有关键美国制造软件"（all critical US-made software）实施严格的出口管制，禁止或限制这些软件向中国出口。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on G ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月12日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：贸易风险显化，供应扰动增强，价格波动放大 强弱分析：偏弱，价格区间：80000-85000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 VIX指数快速回升，表明市场不确定性增加 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 % 标准普尔500波动率指数(VIX) 铜精矿现货TC弱势，冶炼亏损 ...