Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market is turning cautious, with a shift towards anchoring on listed companies' performance. Short - term light - position short orders are recommended for stock index futures [2]. - After a rapid decline, the Treasury bond market shows signs of stabilization. Light - position long orders are recommended for Treasury bond futures [4]. - Gold and silver continue to be strong amidst differentiation. Gold is supported by geopolitical risks and inflation stickiness, while silver benefits from industrial attributes and the need to repair the gold - silver ratio [5][6]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends, including copper, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc., and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on their fundamentals [7][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - With the cooling of speculation in small and medium - cap stocks, market trading volume has decreased rapidly. The performance growth of some banks cannot match the stock price increase, and the market is expected to return to performance - based valuation. Short - term light - position short orders are recommended for stock index futures [2]. Treasury Bond - After a sharp decline, the Treasury bond market stabilizes. The overnight SHIBOR has slightly declined, and the upward trend of medium - and long - term SHIBOR has stabilized. Light - position long orders are recommended for Treasury bond futures [4]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, COMEX gold declined by 0.07%, and Shanghai gold rose by 0.08%. COMEX silver rose by 3.5 cents, and Shanghai silver rose by 0.05%. Policy differences and inflation concerns affect the market. Gold is supported by geopolitical and inflation factors, and silver benefits from industrial demand. Target prices are set for both [4][5][6]. Copper - On Wednesday night, LME copper fell by 1.86%, and Shanghai copper fell by 1.08%. Trump's potential copper tariff policy and supply disruptions in Chile affect the market. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to demand risks [7]. Alumina and Aluminum - Alumina's rebound is blocked, and it is expected to oscillate around 3000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand surplus is the main factor. For aluminum, the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's price is weakly oscillating due to increased supply and low demand. Polysilicon's price is oscillating, with its fundamentals improving but slow inventory digestion [10][11]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday night, iron ore rebounded. Supply has decreased year - on - year, and demand has increased with the approaching peak season. The rebound is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited [12]. Hot Rolled Coil - On Wednesday night, hot - rolled coil oscillated. The supply - demand situation is healthy, but the pressure on steel products may accumulate. Short - term long - position participation is recommended [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke rebounded. The demand has improved marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [14]. Rebar - On Wednesday night, rebar rebounded slightly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand has recovered. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass's price is weakly oscillating. Supply has decreased, and demand is not strong. Soda ash's price is also weakly oscillating, with a decline in supply and mixed demand [16][17]. Beans - CBOT soybeans are mixed. The market is pressured by South American soybean harvests, but the expected reduction in US soybean planting area in 2025 supports forward contracts. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2800 for Dalian soybean meal [17]. Oils and Fats - The prices of various oils and fats show different trends. International crude oil prices support the bottom of the oil market. A short - term bearish view is maintained for palm oil [18]. Cotton - US cotton prices rose, supported by rising oil prices and a strong grain market. Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly. Short - term trading is recommended [20]. Sugar - Raw sugar prices fell due to improved supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar oscillated slightly, with support at 6000 yuan/ton in the short term. Short - term trading is recommended [21]. Apples - Apple futures rose significantly, supported by low inventory levels. A bullish - oscillating view is recommended for short - term operations [22]. Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly due to low procurement enthusiasm from downstream paper mills. An oscillating view is recommended for short - term operations [23]. Crude Oil - US WTI crude oil and domestic crude oil futures rose. US crude oil inventories decreased. Technically, oil prices may continue to oscillate and rebound. A bullish - oscillating view is recommended for operations [24]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures fell. Thai rubber exports increased, and new rubber tapping started in Yunnan. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [26]. Methanol - Methanol futures stabilized with low inventory. An oscillating view is recommended for operations [27]. Urea - Urea futures rose. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, demand is expected to be strong. A short - term bullish - oscillating view is recommended [28]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures oscillated. Supply is at a low level, and demand is weak. The price follows crude oil fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [29]. PTA - PTA futures rebounded from a low level. The market is likely to reduce inventory in March - April. A cautious long - position view and a 5/9 positive spread strategy are recommended [30]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures oscillated. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. An oscillating view is recommended for operations [31][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stagflation logic and geopolitical risks provide "double insurance" for precious metals, with a medium - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations can be seen as allocation opportunities [1]. - For copper, although there is fundamental support during the consumption season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side and the actual implementation of Trump's tariff policy [3]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate around 3000 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [4][5]. - Industrial silicon has a poor fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, while polysilicon has a improving fundamental situation but slow inventory digestion, with short - term disk oscillation [6]. - Iron ore and hot - rolled coils are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8][9]. - Glass and soda ash have weak fundamentals and are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [10][11]. - For beans, the cost of soybean meal has declined, and there is a possibility of weakening after the main contract breaks through 2850 [11]. - Among oils and fats, rapeseed oil is relatively strong, while palm oil is weak [13]. - Zheng cotton and Zheng sugar are recommended for short - term trading [14][15]. - Apple futures are recommended to be treated with a bullish - oscillating mindset due to low inventory [16]. - Pulp is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset due to weak downstream demand [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the later period, and attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. - Corn is expected to oscillate in the future, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [20]. - Crude oil is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [21]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [23]. - Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [24]. - Urea is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. - PTA is recommended to be treated with a cautious long - at - low mindset and hold the 5/9 positive spread [27]. - Polyolefins are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - On Wednesday, domestic gold and silver continued to be strong. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.47% to 709.02 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.70% to 8366 yuan/kilogram [1]. - The sharp drop in the US consumer confidence index in March and Trump's tariff strategy strengthened the anti - risk attribute of precious metals [1]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper rose, breaking through the 83000 yuan/ton pressure level during the session. The spot price increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 82655 yuan/ton, but market trading was poor [3]. - The possible US tariff on imported copper may lead to an accelerated flow of copper resources to the US market, and the market is bullish, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3]. Alumina and Aluminum - Alumina oscillated strongly on Wednesday. The main contract AO2505 reduced positions by more than 10,000 lots. The spot price dropped to 3139 yuan/ton. A Guizhou enterprise's maintenance will relieve supply pressure, but the supply - demand surplus still suppresses prices [4]. - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly on Wednesday, with the main contract reducing positions by more than 5000 lots. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, but high profits limit upward breakthroughs [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.31% to 9780 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply increased, while the demand remained low, with a poor fundamental situation [6]. - The main contract of polysilicon fell 0.26% to 43640 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply was at a low level, and the downstream demand was improving, but inventory digestion was slow [6]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore rebounded short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.19% to 780.0. Supply decreased year - on - year, and demand increased with the approaching peak season. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited upward space [8]. Hot - Rolled Coils - On Wednesday, hot - rolled coils oscillated short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.12% to 3386. The supply - demand situation was healthy, but the inventory pressure of rebar increased. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited space [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - The main contract of glass fell 0.81% to 1229 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and the 05 contract's position issue caused price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread [10]. - The main contract of soda ash fell 0.7% to 1427 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [11]. Beans - On Wednesday, soybean meal in Dalian fell sharply. CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Domestic oil mills entered the shutdown mode, and the cost of soybean meal decreased. The main contract breaking through 2850 may lead to a weakening trend [11]. Oils and Fats - On Wednesday, oil futures showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil was strong, while palm oil and soybean oil in Dalian oscillated downward. The price of Malaysian palm oil was under pressure due to weak exports [13]. Cotton - On Wednesday, Zheng cotton oscillated slightly. The spot price was almost unchanged. The downstream start - up rate increased, but consumption was still below expectations. Short - term trading is recommended [14]. Sugar - On Wednesday, Zheng sugar rebounded following the external market. The spot price increased. The external market was strong, and the domestic supply pressure was not large. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. Apples - On Wednesday, apple futures rose significantly. The main contract AP2505 rose more than 6%. Low inventory supported the price, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended [16]. Pulp - On Wednesday, pulp futures fell slightly. The main contract SP2505 oscillated weakly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and cost provided some support. An oscillating mindset is recommended [17][18]. Pigs - On Wednesday, pig futures oscillated strongly. The main contract LH05 rose 0.37%. The spot price was weakly stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. Corn - On Wednesday, corn futures ran weakly. The main contract C2505 fell 0.40%. The spot price oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. An oscillating mindset is recommended [20]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil prices rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to cut production, the US sanctions on Iran and tariff on Venezuela may affect supply, and the API inventory decreased. It is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound [21]. Rubber - On Wednesday, Shanghai rubber oscillated and fell slightly. Thai rubber exports increased in February, and the domestic supply and demand situation was uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the main contract of methanol fell 0.3%, reducing positions by 1.3 million lots. The spot price was stable. Supply may increase, and demand was general. An oscillating mindset is recommended [24]. Urea - On Wednesday, the main contract of urea rose 1.72%. The spot price was stable. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, demand was strong. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt rose 0.36%. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. Supply was at a low level, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. PTA - On Wednesday, TA2505 rose 1.07%. The downstream demand was gradually recovering, and the market was likely to continue to destock. Cost support was strengthening. A cautious long - at - low mindset and holding the 5/9 positive spread are recommended [27]. Polyolefins - On Wednesday, plastic 2505 fell 0.45%, and PP2505 rose 0.03%. Domestic supply was sufficient, and downstream demand changed little. The spot price was weakly running. An oscillating mindset is recommended [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, and holding short positions in stock index IM is recommended. There is a possibility of market over - adjustment, and holding long positions in treasury bonds with a light position is advisable. The geopolitical conflicts and trade policies have increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The prices of various commodities show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each commodity [2][3][5][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index and Treasury Bonds - **Stock Index**: The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, with the market turnover at the 1.5 - trillion level, far lower than the previous 2 - trillion level. Insurance funds are buying bank and high - dividend coal stocks, while retail investors are more enthusiastic about market speculation. After the hype of deepseek and humanoid robots, the market has a short - term callback sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions in stock index IM [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Spring Festival, the domestic market interest rate has rapidly declined, and there is a possibility of market over - adjustment. The basis for the long - term logic of the market is still the events of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. After the short - term rapid market correction, it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Tuesday night, COMEX gold rose 0.3% to $3025.90 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.23% to 707.30 yuan per gram; COMEX silver futures rose 73.7 cents to $34.187 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.63% to 8360 yuan per kilogram. The "two - step" tariff strategy proposed by the Trump administration has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The target price of COMEX gold is seen at $3100 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract is expected to reach 710 yuan per gram. It is recommended to add positions in batches during the correction [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: On Tuesday night, LME copper rose 1.61% to $10094.5 per ton, and Shanghai copper rose 1.3% to 82780 yuan per ton. The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about tariff policies have pushed up copper prices. The high price difference has promoted active arbitrage trading. The fundamentals support copper prices to a certain extent, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariff policies and risk control [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: On Tuesday night, alumina rose 0.68% to 3098 yuan per ton, and the main contract reduced positions by more than 4000 lots. The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is expected to test the support level around 3000 yuan per ton. LME aluminum fell 0.25% to $2608 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose 0.05% to 20675 yuan per ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the previous long positions can be held [8]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract price of industrial silicon rose 1.63% to 9950 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a low level. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term price will mainly fluctuate. The main contract price of polysilicon rose 0.47% to 43795 yuan per ton. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory digestion is slow, and the short - term disk will mainly fluctuate [9]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday night, iron ore rebounded short - term. The monthly supply decreased year - on - year, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased from a high level. It is expected that the rebound will continue, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [10][11]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: On Tuesday night, hot - rolled coil fluctuated short - term. The supply and demand situation is relatively healthy. It is expected that the short - term rebound will continue, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On Tuesday night, coking coal fluctuated weakly, and coke fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the demand for coke has increased marginally. The upside pressure on the disk still exists, and short - term operations are recommended [13]. - **Rebar**: On Tuesday night, rebar fluctuated. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has recovered but has not reached the level of the same period last year. The disk has stopped falling, and it is expected to fluctuate. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: On Tuesday night, the main contract price of glass rose 1.45% to 1257 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The fundamentals are poor, and the disk has high volatility. It is recommended to wait and see. The main contract price of soda ash rose 0.63% to 1446 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand is relatively stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the disk will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [15][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: CBOT soybeans continued to fall due to expected bumper harvests in South America and decreased Chinese demand. CBOT soybean meal rebounded slightly at a low level. It is recommended to operate within the range. CBOT soybean oil rose due to active arbitrage trading and the rise of international crude oil. BMD palm oil fell due to increased production and weak exports. ICE rapeseed rose slightly. It is recommended that palm oil be short - side operated in the short term, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil be operated within the range [17][18]. - **Cotton**: US cotton closed lower due to the decline of grains and pre - report caution. Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated slightly at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [19]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar futures rose due to supply - side support. Zhengzhou sugar strengthened at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [20][21]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The low inventory provides certain support to the disk. It is recommended to take a long - side approach in the short - term [22]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures fell slightly at night. The weak downstream demand has dragged down the disk. It is recommended to operate within the range [23]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures fluctuated strongly. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [24]. - **Corn**: Corn futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The supply and demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US WTI crude oil rose 0.06% to $69.2 per barrel, and the domestic crude oil main contract SC2505 rose 0.24% to 538.6 yuan per barrel at night. OPEC + may increase production in May, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to operate with a long - side bias [26]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber RU2505 contract fell 0.2% to 17100 yuan per ton at night. Thailand's rubber exports increased in February, and some areas in Xishuangbanna have started trial tapping. It is expected that the rubber price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [27]. - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol futures fell 0.47% to 2550 yuan per ton at night. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [28]. - **Urea**: The main contract of urea futures rose 0.70% on Tuesday. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is rational. It is recommended to operate with a short - term range - bound mindset [29]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% on Tuesday night. The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the fluctuation of crude oil. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [30]. - **PTA**: TA2505 rose 0.29% at night. The terminal orders are gradually increasing, and the market supply has partially recovered. It is expected to reduce inventory in March - April. It is recommended to take a cautious long - side approach and conduct a positive spread operation between May and September contracts [33]. - **Polyolefins**: L2505 and PP2505 rose 0.01% at night. The domestic production has decreased, and the market is suppressed by the production - capacity expansion expectation. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [34].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货研究咨询部日常报告 晨会纪要 氧化铝、铝：夜间氧化铝增仓上行 沪铝高位震荡调整 周一夜间，氧化铝报收 3074 元/吨，上涨 0.36% ，主力合约增仓 10000 余 手，多空博弈加剧。基本面而言，目前暂未出现大规模减产，进口铝土矿到港 量稳步爬升，支持新产能持续释放，氧化铝供需过剩的逻辑较为主导，现货市 场看空氛围延续，现货价格续跌，海外成交价格也持续下跌，出口窗口关闭。 另外，期货仓单累积也给予价格较大压力。预计氧化铝或在 3000 元/吨上下测 试支撑性，关注成本动态变化，短线操作。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：夏豪杰 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 邮箱：15051@guosen.com.cn 原油：OPEC+进一步减产成疑 油价持续下跌 晨会纪要 20250325 2020 年 02 月 27 日 2025 年 3 月 25 日 贵金属：关税扰动叠加政策分歧 贵金属短期承压 周一晚间，COMEX 黄金下降 0.2%，报 3015.60 美元/盎司，沪金主力合约 ...

研究咨询部 国内2月货币供给相对稳定 海外美联储议息会议引关注 ——国信期货宏观周报 2025-3-16 研究咨询部 目 录 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 1 周度回顾 2 高频数据 3 大类资产 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 0310-0316 1.1 周度回顾（0310-0316） 研究咨询部 数据来源：央视等 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 ⚫ 周二，3月11日。隔夜美国三大股指大跌，其中道琼斯工业指数下跌2.08%、标普500指 数下跌2.70%、纳斯达克指数下跌4.0%。 ⚫ 周三，3月12日。根据央视的报道，当地时间3月11日，美国白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗表示， 12日不会对加拿大钢铝产品征收50%的关税。当天早些时候，加拿大安大略省省长福特表 示，将对输美电力征收附加费。随后，美国总统特朗普下令指示商务部长对加拿大出口至 美国的所有钢铁和铝产品征收额外的25%关税，令其总税率提升至50%，并将于3月12日 生效。加拿大安大略省省长福特后来表示，在与美国商务部长卢特尼克交谈后，他将暂停 征收输美电力附加费。当被美国消费者新闻与商业频道记者问及这是否 ...

研究咨询部 国内经济今年主要预期目标确定 海外特朗普政府关税政策多变 ——国信期货宏观周报 2025-3-9 研究咨询部 目 录 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 1 周度回顾 2 高频数据 3 大类资产 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 0303-0309 1.1 周度回顾（0303-0309） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周二，3月4日。根据财政部的消息，《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的部分进 口商品加征关税的公告》发布。2025年3月3日，美国政府宣布以芬太尼为由对所有中国 输美商品进一步加征10%关税。美方单边加征关税的做法损害多边贸易体制，加剧美国企 业和消费者负担，破坏中美两国经贸合作基础。根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华 人民共和国海关法》、《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经 国务院批准，自2025年3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税。有关事项如 下：一、对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税。二、对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水 产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关税。三、对原产于美国的附件所列进口商品，在现 行适用关税税率基础上分别加征相应关税，现行 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内宏观经济阶段性改善 美国关税仍有不确定性 2025 年 2 月 23 日 ⚫ 主要结论 国内宏观经济阶段性改善。物价水平方面，1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%、PPI 同比下降 2.3%，春节错月效应短期利好，物价水平结构性改善。货币供给和 社融方面，1 月社融增量为 7.06 万亿元，为有数据以来的单月最大增幅；其 中，人民币贷款新增 5.2 万亿元，尤其是非金融企业的中长期贷款新增 3.46 万亿元，仅次于 2023 年 1 月的 3.5 万亿元。实体企业长期融资较好。景气度 方面，1 月制造业景气度相对不佳，官方制造业 PMI 为 49.1%，财新制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，抢出口及春节较早有部分影响。企业利润和库存方面，2024 年，规上工业企业利润相对下滑，企业补库趋势相对回落。至 2024 年末，规 上工业企业利润跌幅相对收窄，企业库存回落趋势相对停滞，短期相对改善。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：夏豪杰 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 ...

Economic Policy and Market Trends - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption and optimizing industrial structure through the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" and other measures[6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain its 2% inflation target without immediate policy adjustments, as stated by Chairman Powell[6] - Trump's administration has implemented a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, with no exceptions[8] Inflation and Monetary Supply - In January, the U.S. CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.3%, indicating potential inflationary pressures[10] - China's M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, while social financing stock increased by 8.0%[12] - January's social financing increment reached 7.06 trillion yuan, marking the largest monthly increase on record[12] Commodity Prices and Market Performance - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 21.78 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell to 5.21 yuan/kg, and fruit prices slightly increased to 7.54 yuan/kg[16] - The CRB spot index rose significantly to 551.43, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices[19] - A-shares indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.64%[32] Currency and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.21%, and the onshore dollar to yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.32%[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slightly adjusted to 792 points, reflecting changes in shipping rates[25] - The export container freight index (CCFI) continued to decline, reaching 1387.16[28]

研究咨询部 国内1月物价水平结构性改善 海外美联储适时停止"缩表" ——国信期货宏观周报 2025-2-9 研究咨询部 目 录 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 1 周度回顾 2 高频数据 3 大类资产 研究咨询部 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 0205-0209 1.1 周度回顾（0205-0209） 研究咨询部 数据来源：中国政府网等 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 ⚫ 周三，2月5日。根据新华社的报道，国务院总理李强2月5日主持召开国务院第七次全体会 议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大三次会议审议的政府工作报告，并对做好开年工作进行动 员。李强指出，要认真总结和丰富拓展工作中探索的好做法，锚定发展目标因时因势加大 逆周期调节力度，聚焦突出问题整合资源集中发力，敢于打破常规推出可感可及的政策举 措，及时回应关切加强政策与市场的互动。 ⚫ 周四，2月6日。根据英国央行的消息，将政策利率由4.75%下调至4.5%，即降息25个基 点；投票结果为7人投票支持降息25个基点，2人支持降息50个基点。 ⚫ 周五，2月7日。根据美国劳工部的数据，美国1月非农就业新增14.3万人，预期 ...

Economic Policy and Trade Relations - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and adequate monetary policies to support high-quality development and respond to challenges[5] - Trump plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese exports starting February 1, which is lower than previously indicated rates during his campaign[13] - Trump expressed a preference not to impose tariffs on China, viewing them as a significant leverage point[10] Financial Market Developments - The implementation plan for long-term capital entering the market aims for public funds to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan to the market[12] - By the end of January, the total loan amount for real estate "white list" projects reached 5.6 trillion yuan, exceeding initial expectations[12] Market Performance Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29% and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.64%[30] - The CRB Spot Index increased to 539.94, indicating a rise in commodity prices[18] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined to 824 points, reflecting a downturn in shipping rates[23] Fiscal Data - In 2024, the general public budget revenue is projected at 21.97 trillion yuan, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, while expenditures are expected to reach 28.47 trillion yuan, up 3.6%[12] - The broad fiscal revenue is anticipated to decrease by 1.98% to 28.18 trillion yuan, while broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by 2.71% to 38.61 trillion yuan[13]