Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices are affected by factors such as US policies, weather, and USDA reports, showing a volatile upward trend. Domestic soybean meal prices are also influenced by international prices and domestic supply and demand, with the price center rising. In the oil market, international oil prices are differentiated, with US soybean oil falling and Malaysian palm oil rising. Domestic oil prices are generally rising, but there are differences among varieties [6][59]. - Looking ahead to the next week, in the protein meal market, international soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestic soybean meal is also expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. In the oil market, international US soybean oil is volatile and domestic oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [112][113]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to expectations of improved US soybean export demand and hot and dry weather in some Midwestern farmlands, as well as the adjustment of positions by grain traders before the USDA report. The subsequent fall was due to profit - taking by investors and concerns about export demand. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market also first rose and then fell, with the price center rising [6]. 2. Export and Supply - related Data - US soybean export inspection volume exceeded market expectations, with a 18% decrease compared to the previous week but a 48% increase compared to the same period last year. As of August 7, 2025, the export inspection volume was 518,066 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 48,367,647 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [11]. 3. Weather and Planting Progress - In North America, most parts of the US are dry, which is beneficial for field operations but reduces soil moisture. Some areas have significant rainfall and strong thunderstorms. In Canada's prairie region, wet weather increases soil moisture but affects the early stage of small - grain cereal harvesting [26][30]. - As of August 10, 2025, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [22]. 4. Global Supply and Demand - For the US 2025/26 soybean season, the planting area is estimated to be 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres from July. The yield is estimated to be 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease from July. The ending inventory is estimated to be 290 million bushels, a decrease from July. For the 2024/25 season, the export and crush expectations of US soybeans are increased, and the ending inventory of US soybean oil is increased. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from July, and the ending inventory is decreased by 1.17 million tons to 124 million tons [32][33]. 5. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing profits have declined. As of the end of this week, the import soybean inventory at ports is about 6.8435 million tons, and the theoretical crush days are 19 days. The domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate is 62.56%, an increase of 1.25% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week [40][45]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Trend - This week, international oil prices were differentiated. US soybean oil oscillated downward due to factors such as the decline of international crude oil, the fall of US soybeans, and uncertain biodiesel policies. Malaysian palm oil oscillated upward, but there are doubts about the sustainability of its export growth. Domestic oils generally rose, with soybean oil rising due to increased import costs, palm oil following Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil first rising due to policies and then falling [59]. 2. International Oil - related Information - Indonesia may postpone the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan, which may ease concerns about palm oil supply shortages. From August 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 23.3% - 23.7% compared to the same period in July. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, exports were 1.309 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.1132 million tons [61][62]. 3. Domestic Oil - related Indicators - As of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6066 million tons, a decrease of 3400 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3079 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons; edible palm oil inventory was 526,200 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 772,500 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [78]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For protein meals, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled. For oils, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and palm oil are bullish, and the short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, with medium - term indicators bullish and long - term indicators entangled [112]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein meals: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the market is expected to be volatile and strong. Domestically, the soybean oil mill's startup rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory may decrease steadily. The market is expected to be volatile and strong, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 - 3200. - Oils: Internationally, US soybean oil is volatile due to lack of positive news. Malaysian palm oil has pressure at around 4500. Domestically, oils are strong, but further upward movement requires external forces [113].

Report Title - "偏强运行，等待新季产量落地 —— 国信期货苹果周报" [2] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cold storage余量 is lower than the same period in previous years, with goods concentrated in Shandong. Cold storage merchants have a high willingness to ship. The destocking rate is high, but there are differences in shipment among cold storages. Early - maturing apples have problems such as slow coloring and small fruit size in some areas. The number of new - season apple bagging is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. It is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term and pay attention to the new - season apple production performance [30] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, continued to rise after a slight correction [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apples in the country were 461,300 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining cold - storage volume in Shandong was 288,200 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 119,200 tons [10] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.50%, with a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The destocking rate was 94.50%. There were differences in shipment among cold storages, and data errors slightly increased [14] - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The second - quarter export volume is expected to decline [16] - As of August 15, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. Cold - storage merchants had low - price offers, and customer purchasing enthusiasm was good [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week. Building material demand entered the seasonal off-season and declined month-on-month. Plates such as hot-rolled coils and medium-thick plates performed strongly. Total demand declined marginally, and inventory started to accumulate in the off-season. The supply-demand situation of hot-rolled coils had few contradictions. Affected by factors such as billet exports, hot metal production decreased month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level year-on-year, providing some support for costs. - With the ebb of anti-involution speculation, hot-rolled coils declined in the short term. However, the policy side was still advancing, supporting the price bottom, making it difficult for prices to continue to decline. - The operation strategy was to participate on the long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **Hot-rolled coil futures main contract trend**: After reaching a high level this week, the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures declined and then fluctuated narrowly in the short term [8]. - **Hot-rolled coil spot trend**: After the futures rebounded and then declined, the spot price followed [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **Hot-rolled coil futures-spot price difference trend**: The 01 basis was 24, the 05 basis was 10, and the 10 basis was 18 [14]. - **Hot-cold spread**: Not detailed in the report 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Hot-rolled coil profit**: The production profit was 251, the 01 contract's on - screen profit was 322, the 05 contract's on - screen profit was 327, and the 10 contract's on - screen profit was 339 [21]. - **Hot-rolled coil production**: The hot-rolled coil production was 315.59, the cold-rolled production was 86.19, the rebar production was 220.45, and the production of the five major steel products was 871.63 [24]. - **Raw materials**: Not detailed in the report - **Hot-rolled coil inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 357.47, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.66, the rebar inventory was 587.19, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1415.97 [29]. - **Terminal demand**: Not detailed in the report - **Export**: Exports declined month-on-month but remained strong year-on-year [34]. 3.4 Part 4: Market Outlook - The demand for hot-rolled coils remained strong this week, and the supply-demand situation had few contradictions. Although short-term prices declined, policy support made it difficult for prices to continue to fall. The recommended strategy was to participate on the long side [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high. In the later - stage outlook, it is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips as the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons in late August [6][29] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - As of August 14, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5779 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from last week, turning from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4163 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from last week, also turning from a decline to stability [10] - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [14] - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [17][29] - In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% compared with June 2024. Inventory in most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [20] - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 14, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.88 percentage points from last week; that of double - offset paper decreased by 0.50 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 5.34 percentage points; and that of household paper increased by 2.02 percentage points [24] 3. Future Outlook - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase. The destocking rhythm has accelerated recently, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of port inventory [29] - In the new round of external quotations, the price of Indonesian hardwood pulp has increased. Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the Asian market for bleached eucalyptus hardwood pulp in August 2025, and the Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp price also increased by 20 dollars/ton. Supported by the external cost, there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, but the downstream paper mills have limited acceptance due to pressure on profit margins, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices [29] - Starting from late August, the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons, and the demand and purchasing sentiment may change. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded in the first half - week, following the strong bullish sentiment of the overall commodities. However, the pressure above 5650 increased significantly, and then it turned to consolidation. The upcoming release of July's imported sugar data is expected to show 700,000 tons, much higher than last year's 420,000 tons. Although the large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses sugar prices, the rising Zhengzhou sugar price this week led to an increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance, limiting the downside of sugar prices [49]. - Internationally, the market is starting to focus on Brazil's annual production data, with estimates for the 2025/26 season tending to be below 40 million tons. Demand has improved, as Pakistan plans to import 500,000 tons of sugar, has already purchased 55,000 tons, and is holding a new tender for 200,000 tons of refined sugar. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand support international sugar prices [49]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Movement**: Zhengzhou sugar rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. ICE sugar recovered from a low, with a weekly increase of 1.91% [8]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trend**: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [12][13]. - **Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan**: No specific analysis content is provided, only the data source is mentioned [15][16]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In June, imports were 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,539 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,769 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost is 4,580 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,822 yuan per ton [20]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [24]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 17,284, a decrease of 1,331 from the previous week. There were 17,284 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [28]. - **Brazil's Production Progress**: In the first half of July, the cumulative crushing volume was 256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%, and the sugar production was 1.5655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [29]. - **Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.58%, compared with 48.89% in the same period last year [36]. - **Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in July were 3.5937 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [41]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: Rainfall in Brazil's main production areas decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation [45]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar will continue to be affected by factors such as imported sugar volume and inventory clearance. The large - scale listing of refined sugar suppresses prices, but the increase in spot prices and accelerated inventory clearance limit the downside [49]. - **International Market**: Brazil's production estimate and international demand will affect international sugar prices. The downward adjustment of Brazil's production estimate and improved demand provide support [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is currently at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. In the industry, refined nickel still has an oversupply situation. The nickel ore market is calm with a relatively loose supply. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season with weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of domestic and foreign nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [6][7] 3.2 Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Upstream: Chinese Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the historical data of the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China, with the unit of tons [9][10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trends of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trends of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [14][15] 3.2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons, and the Fubao price trends of 8 - 12% ferronickel during the same period, with the price unit of yuan/nickel [16][17] 3.2.5 Downstream: Stainless - steel Price - Displays the closing price trends of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [18][19] 3.2.6 Downstream: Stainless - steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume trends of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of lots [20][21] 3.2.7 Downstream: Wuxi Stainless - steel Inventory - Shows the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons [22][23] 3.2.8 Downstream: Power and Energy - storage Battery Production - Displays the monthly production volume trends of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy - storage batteries in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [24][25] 3.2.9 Downstream: New - energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume trends of new - energy vehicles in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [27][28] 3.3 Part 3: Market Outlook - In the US, on the 12th local time, the US Department of Labor announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year. The core CPI in July increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than 2.9% in June and far above the Fed's 2% target; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday that he believes there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.1%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 3.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.2%. In China, on July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, stating that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, and implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The policy boosts macro - market confidence, but there is still downward pressure on market prices. The supply pressure of steel products is gradually increasing, the inventory of building materials is accumulating, and the marginal support of supply and demand is weakening. The building materials' own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the futures price follows the raw material fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant production - restriction policies before September [74]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Threaded Steel Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - From January to June, national real - estate development investment was 4,665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Residential investment was 3,577 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%. Other real - estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also showed varying degrees of decline. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24,865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6%. In June 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The US plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, and the tariff executive order signed by the US president took effect on August 7. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October [7]. 1.2 Threaded Steel Main Contract Trend - There is no specific description of the trend in the provided content. 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Interest Rate - On August 7, 2025, the SHIBOR was 1.5290, compared with 1.5570 on July 7, showing a month - on - month decrease in interest rates [15]. 2.2 Macro - Currency Price - There is no specific content provided. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices of various commodities and their price changes over different periods are presented. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm threaded steel in Shanghai was 3,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.30%, a monthly increase of 4.67%, and a yearly increase of 5.00% [22]. 2.5 Threaded Steel Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of the threaded steel main contract on different dates is given. For example, on August 7, 2025, the futures main contract was 3231, the cheapest delivery product was 3350, and the basis was 119 [25]. 3. Threaded Steel Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - There is no specific content provided. 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - There is no specific content provided. 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - There is no specific content provided. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - There is no specific content provided. 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - There is no specific content provided. 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - There is no specific content provided. 3.8 Steel Weekly Output - On August 8, 2025, the output of steel products (including threaded steel, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and medium - thick plate) was 783.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.11500897 and a month - on - month increase of 0.003742438. The weekly output of threaded steel was 221.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.047948451 and a year - on - year increase of 0.312329417 [46][51]. 3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory - On August 8, 2025, the steel mill's steel inventory was 492.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.11371604 and a month - on - month increase of 0.017419302 [54]. 3.11 Steel Social Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.13 Threaded Steel Social Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.14 Building Materials Transaction - There is no specific content provided. 3.15 Consumption Indication - Cement Price - There is no specific content provided. 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - There is no specific content provided. 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transaction - There is no specific content provided. 4. Future Outlook - The policy boosts market confidence, but the downward pressure on market prices persists. The supply of steel products is increasing, the inventory of building materials is accumulating, and the support of supply and demand is weakening. The building materials' futures price follows the raw material fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies before September [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to remain loose, and the demand is seasonally weak. Under the game between long and short in the market, the short - term price may continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by news, but the upside and downside space are both limited. It is recommended that investors respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: No detailed description of the trend, only the data source is mentioned as Wenhua Finance and Guoxin Futures [7][8]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On July 30, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 28 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Wednesday, and at a low level compared with the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.93%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 5.79% year - on - year, still at a high level in the past five years [16]. - **Urea Daily Average Output**: The daily average output of urea was 193,500 tons, still in the high - level range of the past five years [17]. - **Urea Device Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices was 178,200 tons, flat month - on - month and down 3.16% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Urea Device Planned and Under - construction in 2025**: Multiple enterprises in different provinces such as Jiangsu Shuangduo, Wulan Group, etc. have planned production capacities in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of a large amount [20]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.09 million tons, flat month - on - month; the weekly output of pipeline - gas - based urea for fertilizers is 300,000 tons, up 3.45% month - on - month. The supply pattern remains loose [22]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Capacity Operation Rate**: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.09%, up 6.24% from the previous period and 5.79% year - on - year [26]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - factory Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 777,200 tons, up 4.73% month - on - month and 18.80% year - on - year [28]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 61.08%, down 2.31% month - on - month and 8.27% year - on - year [33]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 757,000 tons, up 2.16% month - on - month; port inventory is 565,000 tons, up 27.54% month - on - month [36]. 3.2.4 Cost Side - **Urea Production Profit**: Currently, the production profit of fixed - bed urea is - 127 yuan/ton, the production profit of entrained - flow bed process is 352 yuan/ton, and the production profit of natural - gas - based urea is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On July 31, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from July 24 [46]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea devices is getting stronger. The summary price of Yangquan anthracite fines is 770 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period; the summary price of Jincheng anthracite washed small pieces is 900 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period [48]. 3.2.5 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance data of urea from January 2024 to September 2025, including initial inventory, output, total supply, consumption, export, total demand, ending inventory, supply - demand ratio, and price [52]. 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply Side**: The high - supply situation of urea is difficult to change significantly in the short term, and the supply will continue to be loose [57]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the traditional off - season for demand. Downstream markets are generally wait - and - see, mainly following rigid demand, and there is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [57]. - **Inventory Side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. The enterprise inventory is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the port inventory has increased significantly due to the orderly collection of goods for export [57]. - **Cost Side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Investors are advised to respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 7th Politburo meeting in July proposed "preventing involutionary vicious competition", which was listed as a key task in the 2025 government work report and further clarified in the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July. The policy boosts macro - market confidence and leads to a general increase in commodity prices. However, the PPI shows that the market price still faces downward pressure [71]. - Fundamentally, steel mills have good overall profits and no obvious intention to cut production. The iron - water output has a slight decline but remains at a high level. The supply of five major steel products has increased slightly, while the weekly output of rebar has a slight decline. The demand for building materials has started to decline, and the total social inventory of five major steel products has increased, showing a contradiction between supply and demand [71]. - On the raw material side, the prices of coal and coke have risen sharply before, driving up the prices of finished products. Recently, as the market sentiment returns to fundamentals, the raw material prices have fallen, and the cost support for the finished product futures has weakened. It is recommended to operate in the short - term [72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market - **1.1 Recent Important Information Overview** - Economic data: From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of 2025; in June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year [7]. - Policy information: The US increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% starting from August 1st; the Politburo meeting in July decided to hold the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [7]. - **1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend** - No detailed information about the rebar main contract trend is provided other than the SHIBOR data which shows a decline in interest rate from July 1st to August 1st, 2025, with a bullish signal [15]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment - Macro, Comparison, and Basis - **2.2 Macro - Monetary Price** - The SHIBOR on August 1st, 2025 was 1.5490, and on July 1st, 2025 was 1.6170. The monthly interest rate decreased, indicating a bullish signal [15]. - **2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign** - No specific content is provided. - **2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain** - The prices and their changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are presented. For example, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.30% and a monthly increase of 6.98% [23]. - **2.5 Rebar Main Basis** - No specific content is provided. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand - **3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory** - No specific content is provided. - **3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products)** - No specific content is provided. - **3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot)** - No specific content is provided. - **3.4 Blast Furnace Operation** - No specific content is provided. - **3.5 Electric Furnace Profit** - No specific content is provided. - **3.6 Electric Furnace Operation** - No specific content is provided. - **3.7 Daily Average Iron - Water Output** - No specific content is provided. - **3.8 Weekly Steel Output** - On August 1st, 2025, the output of five major steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 780.24 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.027821688 and a month - on - month increase of 0.000294868 [46]. - **3.9 Weekly Rebar Output** - On August 1st, 2025, the weekly rebar output was 211.06 tons, with a month - on - month decline of 0.004246084 and a year - on - year increase of 0.067307206 [49]. - **3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory** - On August 1st, 2025, the steel mill steel inventory was 484.52 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 0.17031405 and a month - on - month increase of 0.009479759 [52]. - **3.11 Steel Social Inventory** - No specific content is provided. - **3.13 Rebar Social Inventory** - No specific content is provided. - **3.14 Building Materials Transaction** - No specific content is provided. - **3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price** - No specific content is provided. - **3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area** - No specific content is provided. - **3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transaction** - No specific content is provided. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The policy boosts market confidence, but the PPI shows that the market price still has downward pressure. The supply of steel products has a slight increase, while the demand for building materials has declined, and the social inventory has increased. The cost support for the finished product futures has weakened, and short - term operation is recommended [71][72].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].