1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: The increasing decline rate of the breeding sow inventory in October and the expected high decline rate in November are beneficial to reducing the slaughter pressure after August next year [1][20]. - Medium - term: From now to May next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally remain at a high level. Although the sales volume of piglet feed decreased month - on - month in October and November, corresponding to a slight decrease in slaughter after April next year, the overall amplitude is small. The continuous growth of fattening pig feed sales reflects the continuous increase of the pig inventory in society [1][20]. - Short - term: In December, small and medium - sized farmers sold large pigs quickly, resulting in a short - term shortage of large pigs and a higher price difference between fat and standard pigs. The price difference stimulated some secondary fattening, which boosted the spot market and reduced the possibility of a shortage of large pigs during the pre - Spring Festival peak season. The period from now to mid - January is a phase of weak demand, but the high price difference between fat and standard pigs increases the demand for pressing and secondary fattening, offsetting the impact of weakening demand. Later, attention should be paid to the supply - demand matching during the pre - Spring Festival peak season and whether there will be early slaughter before the festival, which may reduce the post - festival supply pressure. For the LH03 contract, although it corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is supported by the expectation of strong pre - Spring Festival spot prices and reduced post - festival supply pressure due to early slaughter. The far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate widely, and opportunities for low - level band trading can be considered [1][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the live pig spot market has been weakly oscillating and rebounded slightly later. In the first half of December, the spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, was as low as around 11.2 yuan/kg, mainly due to the strong selling enthusiasm of small and medium - sized farmers and limited consumption boost. In the second half of December, as the pressure of selling large pigs by small and medium - sized farmers decreased and the slaughter demand during the pre - Winter Solstice peak season increased, the spot price rebounded. The futures market generally oscillated. The LH01 contract was the weakest, mainly because the delivery cost in the southern region was low, and the futures price returned to the area with the lowest delivery cost. The LH03 contract, corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival, strengthened, and the futures curve structure changed to a fully positive structure because the market was worried about a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival [3]. 3.2 Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Piglet data shows high future standard pig slaughter volume - The national breeding sow inventory reached a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 and then oscillated downward. By the end of October, the inventory was 39.9 million heads, a reduction of 2.2% from the peak. Due to weak pig prices and continuous losses in breeding profits, the elimination of breeding sows is expected to continue to increase, which will reduce the supply pressure in the third quarter of next year. From the piglet birth data of various institutions, the piglet birth volume has been at a high level since June, with a slight decline in November. Calculated by the time cycle, the theoretical standard pig slaughter volume will be at a high level until May next year [5]. 3.2.2 Feed sales confirm a large inventory of social pigs - From July to September 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed generally increased steadily. In October and November, the month - on - month growth rate turned negative, but compared with the same period in 2024, the month - on - month growth rates of these two months were roughly the same. The sales volume of fattening pig feed had a relatively high month - on - month growth rate in October and November 2025. From the feed perspective, the inventory of social pigs is generally increasing, but the marginal growth rate may be slightly lower than last year [8]. 3.2.3 Small and medium - sized farmers' large fat pigs are digested faster, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs is increasing - According to the samples of Yongyi Consulting, the average weight of pigs sold by散户 reached the peak and then declined in mid - December, with the same rhythm as the same period last year, but the absolute value of the average weight was slightly higher year - on - year. The average weight of pigs in group farms declined in December, but the overall decline was not large, and it also increased year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs increased in December, consistent with the rhythm of last year, reflecting a shortage of large pigs after the accelerated selling of large pigs by散户[10]. 3.2.4 Consumption is generally flat, and attention should be paid to the performance during the pre - Spring Festival peak season - According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting an increase in domestic pig supply. The fresh - selling rate of slaughtered pigs has decreased, and the utilization rate of frozen product storage capacity has continued to rise, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Seasonally, after the Winter Solstice, the demand for curing pulses has passed, and the slaughter volume will decline. About 25 days before the Spring Festival, the slaughter demand will enter a peak - season strengthening pattern. Considering that the Spring Festival in 2026 is on February 17th, the next pre - Spring Festival demand pulse will start around mid - January. Whether the supply and demand can be effectively matched during the pre - Spring Festival peak season needs to be observed through key indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight [13]. 3.2.5 The industry continues to lose money, and there is limited room for cost reduction - Since the second half of September 2025, pig prices have declined rapidly, and pig breeding profits have deteriorated significantly. As the national average price has remained below the industry average cost of 12 yuan in recent months, the breeding profits of the self - breeding and self - raising model have also been in a continuous loss state. In the future, the price of piglets is still low, and the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will also be low. According to Yongyi Consulting's estimate, the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets in late December has dropped below 12 yuan. From the perspective of feed cost, the prices of soybean meal and corn are both at low levels, and there is little room for further reduction in feed cost. The low pig price will continue to squeeze profits and may gradually stimulate the industry to reduce production capacity [17]. 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The long - term, medium - term, and short - term views are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report. For the LH03 contract, pay close attention to the further verification of indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight. Treat the far - month contracts as wide - range oscillations and consider low - level band trading opportunities [1][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated and rebounded, and the market trend was relatively strong. The production of hot-rolled coils, rebar, and other steel products remained high, with a slowdown in the pace of production cuts. Steel demand had certain support, and the steel market profit oscillated weakly. The rebound in raw material prices drove up steel prices. The negative feedback logic in the previous market operation was suspended due to factors such as the warming of macro sentiment, and the market entered a rebound phase. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short term [36]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - **1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend**: This week, the main hot-rolled coil contract oscillated briefly and continued to decline in the short term [9]. - **1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend**: The spot market oscillated weakly [12]. 2. Basis and Spread - **2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Spread Trend**: The 01 basis was -8, the 05 basis was 3, and the 10 basis was -8 [15]. - **2.2 Cold-Hot Spread**: Not provided 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit**: The production profit was 36, the 01 market profit was 241, the 05 market profit was 193, and the 10 market profit was 208 [22]. - **3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production**: The hot-rolled coil production was 291.91, the cold-rolled production was 86.09, the rebar production was 181.68, and the production of the five major steel products was 797.97 [25]. - **3.3 Raw Materials**: Not provided - **3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory was 390.72, the cold-rolled coil inventory was 163.67, the rebar inventory was 452.54, and the inventory of the five major steel products was 1294.78 [30]. - **3.5 Terminal Demand**: Not provided - **3.6 Export**: Exports decreased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively high level [34]. 4. Market Outlook - The hot-rolled coil market entered a rebound phase, and the recommended strategy is short-term participation [36].

Report Title - "Weak Oscillation, Bottoming Out and Rebounding - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", dated December 21, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The inflation data in the US in November showed a slowdown, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected and down from 3.0% in September. Core CPI also hit a new low since March 2021. In China, the CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding. The increase was related to the rise in food prices [33]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding this week. Refined nickel prices first fell and then rose, and nickel inventories were at a high level compared to the same period. There were supply disturbances as the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia might be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. The nickel ore market was affected by the rainy season, with unstable shipments in the Philippines and relatively loose supply in Indonesia. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand and rising costs, but its medium - term sustainability was weak. In the stainless - steel market, approaching the year - end off - season, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand was poor, and inventory reduction was slow. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was approximately 113,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract, it was about 12,300 to 13,200 yuan/ton [33]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - Focused on the price trend of the nickel futures main contract, presenting a data chart of the nickel futures closing price (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [6][7] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Showed the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports, presenting a data chart of the Chinese nickel ore port inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 tons [9][10] 2.2 - 2.4 Midstream - **2.2**: Presented the price of electrolytic nickel, showing a data chart of the electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) price from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [12][13] - **2.3**: Presented the price of nickel sulfate, showing a data chart of the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of yuan/ton [14][15] - **2.4**: Presented the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, showing data charts of the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of tons and yuan/nickel respectively [16][17] 2.5 - 2.8 Downstream - **2.5**: Covered the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel. It presented data charts of the stainless - steel futures closing price (continuous), stainless - steel futures positions, and Wuxi stainless - steel inventory from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with units of yuan/ton, lots, and tons respectively [18][21][24] - **2.6**: Presented the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the monthly output of power and energy - storage batteries from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [26][27] - **2.7**: Presented the monthly output of new - energy vehicles, showing a data chart of the monthly output of Chinese new - energy vehicles from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [28][29] Part 3: Future Outlook - Analyzed the inflation data in the US and China, and the market conditions of nickel and stainless steel. Predicted the operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [33]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton is not over yet, and it is accumulating energy during the consolidation period [2] - In the short - term, with the support of increasing positions, there may still be room for Zhengzhou cotton to rise. In the medium - term, it is highly probable that the center of Zhengzhou cotton price will move up [53] - The short - term upside of US cotton remains under pressure, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [53][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a relatively strong oscillation this week, with a weekly increase of 1.19%. ICE cotton futures had a slight oscillation, with a weekly decrease of 0.17% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 114 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 126 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As a large amount of new cotton was launched on the market, the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage, and the commercial inventory of cotton in the second half of November was 4.6836 million tons [19][20] 3.1.4 Downstream Inventory Situation - In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28] 3.1.5 Yarn Price - This week, the yarn price increased. The price of 10 - count air - spun cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn was raised by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 751. The number of warehouse receipts was 3619, and the effective forecast was 3949, with a total of 7568 [37] 3.1.7 Seed Cotton Purchase Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only the data source of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price was provided [41] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of November 27, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the current year increased by 135,900 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 4500 bales [43][47] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 23.7%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 22.5%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 9.9%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.0%. The total proportion of drought - affected areas (D1 - D4) was 34.0% [50] 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly around 14,000 yuan/ton, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. From the perspective of inspection data, the amount of inspected cotton has reached about three - quarters of the expected output, with a year - on - year increase of more than 600,000 tons. Currently, the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton price may face significant hedging pressure, but in the medium - term, it is likely that the center of gravity will move up [53] 3.2.2 International Market - The international market oscillated within a narrow range. The US cotton sales were not ideal, the Chinese market maintained a small - scale signing volume, and the overall shipment process remained stable. The weak export data had a certain suppressing effect on the US cotton trend. In India, the launch of new cotton accelerated, the purchase by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) increased, the export volume rebounded significantly, and the textile and clothing exports rebounded month - on - month. However, the upward trend of domestic cotton prices in India may not last. Macroscopically, concerns about the US recession increased, and the short - term upside of US cotton remained under pressure [53] 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market experienced a weakening trend last week, with spot prices fluctuating weakly and futures prices mainly falling. The main contract switched to 2603, the port basis rose, the 1 - 3 spread strengthened, and the 3 - 5 spread weakened. The 2603 contract faced significant pressure. Fundamentally, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang and Shandong increased. The selling pressure rebounded after the snow cleared, and the bullish sentiment of grain holders weakened. The grain sales of farmers continued, but the sales progress in Northeast China slowed slightly, while it remained normal in North China. It is expected that there will be a small peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival. Regarding imported corn, Brazilian corn will gradually arrive at ports, which will help relieve the tight inventory situation in the South. On the demand side, the breeding profit has been poor, the short - term feed demand has resilience but the outlook is pessimistic. The deep - processing profit is still not good, and the operating rate remains low and stable. The raw material inventory of feed mills and deep - processing enterprises has continuously increased, and the inventory in the northern ports has also increased significantly, weakening the boost from restocking. Overall, the stage of supply - demand mismatch in the corn market has ended, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future under the background of poor demand and sufficient supply [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **Corn Futures Market Changes**: No specific content provided - **Corn Spot Market Changes**: No specific content provided - **Corn Spot Market: Regional Spreads**: No specific content provided - **Corn Sales Progress**: The grain sales of farmers continued, but the sales progress in Northeast China slowed slightly, while it remained normal in North China. It is expected that there will be a small peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival [7] - **Corn Import**: Brazilian corn will gradually arrive at ports, which will help relieve the tight inventory situation in the South [7] - **Feed and Breeding Demand**: The breeding profit has been poor, the short - term feed demand has resilience but the outlook is pessimistic [7] - **Feed and Breeding Demand: Feed Production**: No specific content provided - **Deep - processing Demand**: The deep - processing profit is still not good, and the operating rate remains low and stable [7] - **Substitutes**: No specific content provided - **Northern Port Corn Dynamics**: The raw material inventory of feed mills and deep - processing enterprises has continuously increased, and the inventory in the northern ports has also increased significantly, weakening the boost from restocking [7] - **Southern Port Corn Dynamics**: No specific content provided - **Southern Port Grain Dynamics**: No specific content provided 3.2 Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics - **Corn Starch Futures**: No specific content provided - **Corn Starch Spot**: No specific content provided - **Corn - Starch Spread**: No specific content provided - **Corn Starch Production and Inventory**: No specific content provided - **Corn Starch Downstream Demand**: No specific content provided - **Cassava Starch**: No specific content provided 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics - **US Corn Futures Market**: No specific content provided - **US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress**: No specific content provided - **US Corn Export Sales**: No specific content provided - **Brazilian Corn Crop Progress**: No specific content provided

Report Title - "Demand Expected to Decline, Near - Term Contracts Under Pressure — Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, live pig spot prices fluctuated and rebounded due to a phased strengthening of consumption. Futures prices first rose and then fell. Near - term contracts were weak due to the spot price increase falling short of expectations, while the March contract strengthened, and the futures curve turned into a contango structure [7]. - Fundamentally, domestic live pig supply is expected to increase overall by the end of the first quarter of next year based on piglet birth and feed production and sales data. In the short term, large - scale farms had low sales in the first half of the week and higher enthusiasm in the second half, while small and medium - sized farmers had high enthusiasm for sales, but the pressure of selling large pigs has not been fully digested [7]. - In terms of demand, slaughter demand will decline periodically around the Winter Solstice, and will pick up again when pre - Spring Festival stocking demand starts. Spot prices may face short - term adjustment pressure, but the decline space is limited as the pre - Spring Festival peak season is not over [7]. - In the long run, the expectation of industry capacity reduction due to losses in the live pig industry still exists, providing some bottom support for far - term contracts. The LH03 futures contract is at a premium to LH01, and the market expects a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival due to pre - festival early sales. However, supply pressure after the festival is still large according to piglet data [7]. - For operation, treat near - term contracts as oscillating weakly, and look for buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts under the idea of wide - range oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Past week's market: Spot prices rebounded due to consumption, futures first rose then fell, near - term weak, March contract strong, futures curve in contango [7]. - Supply situation: Overall supply to increase by Q1 2026, short - term large - scale farms' sales pattern changed, small and medium - sized farmers have large - pig sales pressure [7]. - Demand situation: Slaughter demand to decline around Winter Solstice, pick up with pre - Spring Festival stocking, short - term spot price adjustment pressure but limited decline [7]. - Long - term outlook: Industry capacity reduction expectation supports far - term contracts, post - festival supply pressure still large [7]. - Operation suggestions: Near - term weakly oscillating, far - term look for buying on dips [7] 65. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: National level, no temporary reserve purchase for Level 3 warning, consider for Level 2, start for Level 1. Local conditions refer to national practice [67]. - Price over - rise: Two scenarios. In market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve release for Level 2 warning, increase release for Level 1. In special cases like major animal diseases, tolerate higher price increases, release mainly in key periods after Level 1 warning. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than central level [67]

研究所 先跌后涨，盘面波动加大 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年12月19日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 苹果期货主力合约AP2605高位回落，小幅反弹修复，多空力量持续博弈。 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月18日，全国冷库苹果库存量为712.7万吨，冷库库存比例约为54.12%，较去年同期（ 202412019）低6.81个百分点。库存量处于历史偏低位置，为苹果价格提供一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月18日，全国冷库库容比下降0.54个百分点，单周出库量较上周增加0.19个百分点 ...

研究所 资金流入 郑糖加速寻底 2025年12月19日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 ——国信期货白糖周报 郑糖加速下跌，周度跌幅2.42%。 ICE期糖弱势运行，周度跌幅4.17%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is currently experiencing significant changes. The main contract is shifting, the basis is strengthening, and the 15 - spread is rapidly converging. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in spot and futures prices, as well as in different regions. In the future, the coastal methanol market is expected to maintain a box - shock trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2601 closed at 2067 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.4% and a reduction of 390,000 lots in positions, leaving 480,000 lots in position. The second - main contract MA2605 closed at 2099 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.2%, an increase of 60,000 lots in positions, and 830,000 lots in position and 750,000 lots in trading volume. The port basis continued to strengthen, and the 15 - spread also converged rapidly [6]. - **Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Production - Sales Area Spreads**: The coastal methanol market declined weakly this week, while the inland market fluctuated narrowly. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2086 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1984 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous week. Due to the expected climate in the north, freight rates increased, and producers in production areas sold at discounted prices, while some downstream enterprises in sales areas still had the enthusiasm to replenish stocks, and the freight rate increase supported a narrow increase in the transaction price [8]. - **Methanol Foreign Market Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 236 - 244 US dollars/ton, and that for Iranian methanol shipments is - 1 - 0.5%. The cost in US dollars has increased, and buyers are relatively cautious. The methanol markets in Europe and the United States are operating weakly, with the reference price in Europe at 257 euros/ton and that in the United States at 89 - 90 cents/gallon [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of December 11, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 76.64%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.53%, a 1.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 0.97 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating loads in the northwest and north China increased this week, leading to a slight increase in the national methanol operating load [14]. - **Methanol Import and Export Volume**: The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [15]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [21]. - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: The international natural gas price has corrected from a high level, and the import cost of natural gas - to - methanol has dropped to 1880 yuan/ton. The price of the domestic thermal coal market continued to decline this week. Most mainstream coal mines in production areas maintained stable production, but downstream demand was not ideal. Power plants mainly replenished stocks through long - term contracts, and pit - mouth prices mostly continued to decline [22][26]. - **Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream industries was 77.6%, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries was 54.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week [28]. - **Methanol Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [38]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Affected by the port policy on the age of imported methanol vessels this week, there was congestion at the port, delaying the actual unloading progress of imported vessels. At the same time, the rigid demand for提货 was stable, and the number of re - export vessels in Taicang increased. The coastal methanol inventory continued to decline significantly, and the decline in spot and near - month contracts was slightly narrower. However, coastal MTO plants have entered maintenance, and imported vessels and floating storage still need to be unloaded and stored in the warehouse one after another. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the coastal methanol market in the later stage, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the coastal methanol market will maintain a box - shock trend next week [41].

2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，成本定价 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年12月14日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...