研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market price is under deflationary pressure with no signs of improvement, which exerts pressure on commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - As of the end of May 2025, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; M0 balance was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Net cash injection in the first five months was 306.4 billion yuan. The low base in the same period in 2024 due to policies to prevent idle funds led to a significant rebound in M1 growth in May [7]. - At the end of May, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan. In May, credit performance was still poor, with new RMB loans in a single month less than the same period last year by 330 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans performed better than medium - and long - term loans, and residents' short - term loans decreased, indicating weak consumption [7]. - In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to May was 0.1% lower than the same period last year, remaining flat compared to the previous period [7]. 3.1.2 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2 2. Futures Market Environment: Macroeconomics, Price Ratios, and Basis 3.2.1 2.1 Macroeconomics - Money Quantity - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.2 2.2 Macroeconomics - Money Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.3 2.4 Price Ratios - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The current prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are 3,090 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, 710 yuan/ton, 1,270 yuan/ton, and 1,236 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price changes are 0.00%, 0.31%, - 1.94%, 0.00%, - 1.89%; monthly price changes are - 2.83%, - 2.15%, - 5.98%, - 8.63%, - 6.65%; and annual price changes are - 12.46%, - 14.93%, - 12.38%, - 36.18%, - 38.10% [24]. 3.2.4 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) data from May 30 to June 20, 2025, shows fluctuations, with values ranging from 84 to 169 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.2 3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.3 3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Spot and Futures) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.4 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - As of June 20, 2025, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.82%, up from 83.41% on June 13 [40]. 3.3.5 3.4 Electric Arc Furnace Profits - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.6 3.5 Electric Arc Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.7 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.8 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On June 20, 2025, the output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 780.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [51]. - On June 20, 2025, the rebar output was 212.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.96% [54]. 3.3.9 3.10 Steel Mill Inventories - On June 20, 2025, the steel mill inventory was 514.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31% [57]. 3.3.10 3.11 Social Steel Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.11 3.13 Rebar Social Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.12 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.13 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.14 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.15 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.4 4. Outlook for the Future - The current market price deflationary pressure persists, and there are no signs of improvement, which affects commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract completed the rollover, with SP2509 falling significantly by 1.5% this week. In June, the paper industry is in the traditional off - season, downstream paper mills' profit improvement is poor, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow, continuing the dynamic game. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract completed the rollover, and SP2509 dropped by 1.5% on a weekly basis [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pulp Market Prices - As of June 19, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5946 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from last week, turning from stable to falling; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4141 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from last week, turning from rising to falling; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5187 yuan/ton, down 1.61% from last week, with the decline expanding by 0.86 percentage points compared to the previous period; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3783 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week, with the decline expanding by 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous period [12] 2.2 April Pulp Import Volume - In April 2025, China imported 289.3 tons of pulp, with an import value of 1825.2 million US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 75.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 119.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.70% [16] 2.3 Port Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 220.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.85 percentage points compared to last week [18][33] 2.4 May European Chemical Pulp Inventory - In May 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 85.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.32%; the European chemical pulp inventory was 68.10 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.50%. The inventory days were 25 days, the same as the same period last year [21][33] 2.5 Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.53 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of offset paper increased by 2.93 percentage points this week; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 2.16 percentage points this week; the operating load rate of tissue paper increased by 2.93 percentage points this week [26] 3. Future Outlook - As of June 19, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 220.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.85 percentage points compared to last week. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of wood pulp export quotes. In May, European chemical pulp consumption increased by 0.32% year - on - year, and the inventory increased by 2.50% year - on - year. June is the traditional off - season for the paper industry, downstream paper mills' profit improvement is poor, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow, continuing the dynamic game. It is recommended to wait and see for now [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The market has digested the negative impact of the significant year - on - year increase in May's import data in advance. The basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar. With the decrease in warehouse receipts and the market price showing certain resilience, the 5600 yuan/ton support line is expected to be effective if the international market doesn't decline further [59]. - In the international market, Brazil's production data in the second half of May exceeded market expectations, and the sugar - making ratio continued to rise, suppressing prices. However, due to the rising crude oil price and the influence of the sugar - alcohol ratio, and the fact that Pakistan will purchase 750,000 tons of sugar, which may boost international sugar prices in the short term [59]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - long trading [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 0.99%, while ICE sugar futures were searching for a bottom with a weekly decline of 1.15% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed description of spot price trends, but the basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar [59]. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4632 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5889 yuan/ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4656 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5920 yuan/ton [23]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [26]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,279, a decrease of 837 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 28,279, and the effective forecast was 0 [34]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the second half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85%, and the sugar production was 6.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [38]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 49.99%, compared with 47.81% in the same period last year [40]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In May, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2532 million tons, a decrease of 557,500 tons compared with the same period last year [47]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: In Brazil, rainfall in the main production areas increased slightly, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. In India, the monsoon brought abundant precipitation [54][55].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report: Stronger Oscillation, Awaiting New Season Guidance" and is dated June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. With less inventory in cold storage and declining downstream demand, the supply and demand are in a stalemate. The new season's apples are in the early stage of bagging, and the fruit - hanging issues in the production areas need to be verified by the initial bagging results. Short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillation mindset [35] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a stronger oscillation [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage remaining volume in Shandong production area is 657,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi production area is 291,700 tons [12][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. Apples are in the off - season, and the listing of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, reducing market demand and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants [17] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 50,000 tons, a 28.57% decrease from the previous month and a 16.67% decrease from the same period last year. The second - quarter export volume of fresh apples in 2025 is expected to decline [19] - As of June 20, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, striped apples are 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchant's slice - red apples are 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples are 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the third - grade merchant's goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin. Sellers sell according to the market, there are few buyers, and the trading volume is low [31]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply-demand Margin Improves, Coking Coal and Coke Rebound Slightly - Guoxin Futures" [2] - Report Date: June 22, 2025 [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal and coke has tightened due to environmental protection and accidents, and the inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Double-Coke Market Review - The report reviews the market of double-coke (coking coal and coke) main contracts for the week, but specific data and details are not provided in the given content [11] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Overview - **Production**: As of this Friday, the operating rate of sample coal washing plants was 61.34%, a week-on-week increase of 3.98%. The output of upstream coal mines decreased marginally, while the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly week-on-week [16]. - **Imports**: As of the end of April 2025, China's total imports of coking coal were 36.327 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%, changing from an increase to a decrease. Imports from Russia, Canada, and the United States increased, while imports from Mongolia, the main importing country, decreased year-on-year, mainly due to weak domestic demand and poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm [20]. - **Port Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory at six ports was 3.0331 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 87,100 tons [25]. - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide was 6.6565 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 38,800 tons. Coke enterprises were in the red and consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in coking coal inventory [30]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 7.7466 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,800 tons. Steel mills purchased as needed to keep in-plant inventory stable [33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: From January to May 2025, the national coke output was 207.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In May, the coke output was 42.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [38]. - **Coke Enterprise Operation**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises surveyed by Steel Union was 73.42%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. Coke enterprise profits declined, operation decreased month-on-month, but the absolute level remained high [43]. - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of Mysteel's independent coke enterprise full sample was 809,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 63,800 tons. Downstream purchasers bought as needed, supply contracted, and coke enterprise inventory decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [48]. - **Port Inventory**: The total port coke inventory was 2.0311 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Mysteel surveyed that the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,400 tons. Blast furnace operation remained stable. During the off-season, downstream had no motivation to replenish inventory and actively consumed in-plant inventory, leading to a decline in in-plant coke inventory [57]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Mysteel surveyed that the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 57,000 tons. Hot metal output remained flat, providing short-term support for the actual consumption of furnace materials [62]. 3.4 Double-Coke Future Outlook - The supply side continues to tighten due to environmental protection and accidents. The inventory pressure at the Sino-Mongolian border affects the low customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port. The demand side shows that the coke enterprise's operation has declined slightly, while the steel mill's hot metal output has increased slightly month-on-month. The supply-demand relationship has improved marginally, leading to a slight rebound in the market. It is recommended to conduct short-term operations [66].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

供应缩减预期 甲醇增仓上行 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 200 250 300 200 300 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2023-02-01 2023-03-01 2023-04-01 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 2024-04-01 2024-05-01 2024-06-01 甲醇主力合约MA2509截止收盘在2529元/吨，周涨幅6.35%，增仓12万手，持仓88万手，港口基差大幅上行约100元。 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年6月22日 目 录 CONTENTS 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 400 500 1月2日 1月10日 1月18日 1月26日 2月3日 2月11日 2月19日 2月27日 3月6日 3月14日 3月22日 3月30日 4月8日 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the past week, the live hog spot market rebounded steadily, the futures market was volatile and strong, the basis weakened, and the spread between LH9 and LH11 was volatile and strong. The spot market was supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts, the average weight continued to decline, and the second - fattening significantly shrank, providing strong support for the peak - season contract LH09. Fundamentally, the obvious month - on - month increase in the number of fertile sows in April and May continued to suppress the LH2603 contract. In the short and medium term, the monthly month - on - month increase in the number of sample piglets born from January to May means that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited. It is expected that the spot market will be volatile and weak in the short term. For futures, the LH09 contract corresponds to the peak consumption season. Although the theoretical slaughter volume will still increase, due to policy - guided weight reduction and restricted sales of second - fattened hogs, the average slaughter weight may be lower, partially alleviating the pressure of the slaughter volume. The futures market has certain support for now. The operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude, and continue to pay attention to the rhythm of weight reduction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market rebounded steadily last week, with the futures market being volatile and strong. The basis weakened, and the LH9 - LH11 spread was volatile and strong. The spot was supported by farmers' resistance, and the decline in average weight and reduction in second - fattening supported the LH09 contract. The increase in fertile sows in April and May suppressed the LH2603 contract. The increase in piglet numbers from January to May indicates growing slaughter volume. Consumption is in the off - season, and the spot is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The LH09 contract has support due to potential weight reduction, and the operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - **Live Hog Futures Market**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot Market**: The spot market rebounded steadily last week, with limited demand support due to the off - season [7]. - **Live Hog Spot: Basis after Regional and Weight Adjustment**: On June 19, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2507 at 13255, data on standard pig prices, weight ranges, regional premiums and discounts, and basis in different provinces are presented. For example, in Henan, the standard pig price was 14.38, and the basis was 1125 [25]. - **Live Hog Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Change in Fertile Sows**: The number of fertile sows increased significantly month - on - month in April and May, which continued to suppress the LH2603 contract [7]. - **Change in Piglets**: The number of sample piglets born from January to May increased month - on - month, indicating that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow later [7]. - **Verification of Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Slaughter Situation**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Pork Consumption Situation**: Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited [7]. - **Frozen Meat Market Dynamics**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Cost and Profit**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations**: In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started for the third - level early warning, considered for the second - level, and started for the first - level. For excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are started for the second - level early warning and increased for the first - level. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods [73]. - **Multi - caliber Comparison**: No specific content provided in the given text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Over the past week, the corn spot price fluctuated and rose, the futures showed a strong - side fluctuation, the basis weakened slightly, and the C7 - 9 spread decreased slightly due to the impact of imported corn auctions. - Fundamentally, the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, the supply volume remains low, the imported corn and substitutes in May are still scarce, and there is no significant increase in tracked imported ship purchases, so the overall supply pressure in the later period is not large. - In terms of consumption, the feed production volume maintains year - on - year growth, but the low wheat - corn price difference has a certain squeezing effect on the use of corn in the feed field. - In terms of deep - processing, the starch processing profit has been repaired due to the strengthening of by - products, and the industry's operating rate has slightly increased. - In terms of inventory, the domestic - trade corn at southern ports has increased, the corn inventory at northern ports has continued to decline, and the raw material inventories of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have also decreased, so the overall inventory pressure has continued to ease. - Overall, the corn supply - demand pattern tends to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the later period. The operation should adopt a bullish mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 6. Corn产区天气监控 - Currently, summer sowing in most parts of the Huanghuai region is nearing completion, and most summer corn has emerged. In most parts of North China and the eastern part of Northwest China, summer corn is in the sowing to emergence stage. It is expected that from June 21 - 24, most of the summer - sowing areas will have mostly sunny weather and suitable soil moisture [62].