国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米年报 供需略转宽松 宽幅震荡运行 玉米 2025 年 11 月 21 日 主要结论 分析师：覃多贵 2025/26 年国际玉米市场总体呈现宽松格局，但供应压力较大的地区主要集 中在美国。目前南美进入播种期，市场预估产量较为稳定。但考虑 ENSO 环流进 入拉尼娜模式，未来天气变化可能会对南美产量的兑现产生不利影响。国内方面， 2025 年全国玉米种植面积仍有增长，同时得益于较好的天气条件，国内单产亦 较上年有所提升，使得总的产量较上年有明显增加。不过，需要注意的是，华北 地区由于收割期受连续降水的影响，玉米品质较差，毒素偏高，限制了其在淀粉 及饲料加工等领域的使用。这使得东北产区优质玉米在饲料领域的价值明显提 升，华北及南方销区的粮商也纷纷加大在东北的收购力度，有利于缓解东北增产 带来的压力。需求方面，2025 年蛋鸡养殖大幅亏损，四季度生猪养殖利润也转 为全面亏损，叠加国家政策引导生猪行业去产能，2026 年饲料消费量预计将有 明显的缩减。深加工方面，考虑到木薯淀粉进口冲击预计有所减弱，同时，华北 质量较差的玉米进入酒精加工领域，预计全年深加工的玉米消耗量将有所恢复。 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself, with abundant refinery supply and insufficient downstream demand support, along with the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Asphalt Futures Main Contract Trend**: From November 10 to 14 (daytime closing), the main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, fluctuated, with an interval decline of 0.36% and an interval amplitude of 2.57% [8]. - **1.2 Shandong Partial Refineries 70A Ex - factory Price**: No specific price data was provided in the text. - **1.3 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Basis**: No specific basis data was provided in the text. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **2.1 Asphalt Production Comprehensive Profit**: The current theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong local refineries is - 373.85 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction), in Hebei local refineries is - 315.02 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit is 454.05 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **2.2 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and SC*6.6 Main Contract**: On November 14, the spread was - 18.16 yuan/ton, up 10.12 yuan/ton compared to November 7 [23]. - **2.3 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and WTI Closing Price**: On November 13, the spread was - 22.10 yuan/ton, down 20.81 yuan/ton compared to November 6 [26]. - **2.4 China Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year [29]. - **2.5 China Asphalt Weekly Output**: The weekly output was 53.2 tons, down 3.38% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year [32]. - **2.6 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year [35]. - **2.7 Shandong Asphalt Weekly Output**: The weekly output in Shandong was 18.3 tons, up 20.39% month - on - month and down 2.14% year - on - year [38]. - **2.8 Asphalt - related Demand Situation**: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year [42]. - **2.9 Asphalt Inventory Situation**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month [44]. - **2.10 Shandong Asphalt Inventory Situation**: The in - plant inventory of 54 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 25.6 tons, up 1.99% month - on - month and down 8.90% year - on - year; the social inventory of 70 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 29.8 tons, down 8.87% month - on - month and up 18.25% year - on - year [47]. - **2.11 and 2.12 Domestic Weather Forecast for the Next Three Days**: There will be snow or sleet in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Tibet, Northwest China, Shaanxi, and Sichuan in the next three days, and moderate to heavy rain in some areas of Yunnan and Guangxi [52]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: As of November 16, the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year; the operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year. The market supply is sufficient and the supply support for asphalt prices is limited [61]. - **Demand**: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year. The demand in the north has entered the off - season, and the demand in the south is relatively stable but with limited actual growth. The demand will continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation [61]. - **Cost**: OPEC and its allies' production increase suppresses oil prices, while the escalation of South American geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The international oil price fluctuates, and the cost guidance is insufficient [62]. - **Technical**: The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, continues to operate weakly and fluctuately. The price is below the key resistance level, and the moving average system shows a short - position arrangement, indicating weak bullish momentum [62]. - **Short - term View**: The asphalt futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market and the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself [62].

Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]

研究所 阶段性供需错配 玉米震荡走强 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年11月14日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货上涨， 主要受中下游建库支撑，期货上涨，主力C2601合约上涨1.68%，期货商品曲线正向结构变缓，主要 是近端涨幅较大。基本面来看，新季玉米增产明显，目前产区农民销售节奏较快，东北、华北主产区基层农户售粮进度都处于 近几年较高水平；进口玉米依然处于低位，且中美贸易协议也无明确增加玉米采购的表述，预计未来进口难有大幅增长空间。 需求端来看，尽管养殖利润不佳，饲料需求的预期较差，但现实的高存栏也使得刚需较强，华中、西南地区饲料企业原料库存 低位下有较强的补库需求；深加工方面，淀粉企业利润虽较前期所改善，但同比处于低位，考虑成品库存去化偏慢，淀粉企业 开机率虽环比提升，但不具备太大的继续上升空间。总体来看，目前玉米市场受阶段性供需错配影响表现偏强，但年前东北玉 米仍有一定上市压力，预计市场还会反复，但上市底部或已出现。操作上，震荡思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the past week, the live - hog market showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak. The futures market had a structure where near - term contracts were weak and far - term contracts were strong, the basis weakened slightly, and the forward structure of the futures curve became steeper. From the number of piglet births, the domestic live - hog slaughter pressure will be realized from now to the second quarter of the next year, with the theoretical slaughter volume generally increasing in the later stage. [7] - In the short term, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms is a bit slow and is expected to speed up in the second half of November. Small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding back their pigs. [7] - The demand is gradually picking up, and it's time to observe whether consumption can effectively absorb the supply. Considering the high frozen - meat inventory and low spread between live - hog and pork prices, it's difficult for the peak consumption season alone to support the rise of live - hog spot prices. [7] - For the future market trend, attention should be paid to the realization of consumption and the time point of inventory reduction of live hogs. In the long term, focus on the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. [7] - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for LH2601 and LH2603 contracts. Treat the LH2609 contract in the far - month as a wide - range shock and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live - hog market had a first - strong - then - weak pattern last week. Futures showed near - weak and far - strong, with a slightly weaker basis and a steeper forward curve. The slaughter pressure will be high from now to the second quarter of next year. In the short term, large - scale farms' slaughter may speed up, and small - scale farmers are holding back pigs. Consumption is picking up, but it's hard for it alone to support price increases. Pay attention to consumption and inventory reduction, and the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm. Adopt different trading strategies for different contracts. [7] 67. Central Reserve Frozen - Pork Operation - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, no temporary reserve purchase is initiated when a third - level early warning is issued; it may be initiated when a second - level warning is issued; and it is initiated when a first - level warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. [67] - In case of excessive price increases, in the normal market cycle, reserve release is initiated when a second - level early warning is issued and the release is increased when a first - level warning is issued. In case of special situations like major animal diseases, after a first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than the central level. [67]

Report Title - "Guangxi Delays Sugar Cane Crushing, Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Trade Strongly - Guoxin Futures Weekly Sugar Report" [2] Report Date - November 14, 2025 [2] 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices had a slight weekly increase of 0.24%, while ICE sugar futures continued to stop falling and stabilize, with a weekly increase of 1.53% [11] Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [15][16] Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [20][21] Sugar Imports - In September, sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. Based on the ICE March sugar contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,090 yuan per ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost was 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,166 yuan per ton [25] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in September was about 682,000 tons, an increase of 324,800 tons compared to the same period last year [28] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,904, a decrease of 104 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,721, and the valid forecasts were 1,183 [36] Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of October, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [40] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.36%, compared to 48.74% in the same period last year [45] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [49] International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - In Brazil, the main producing areas had abundant rainfall, which was unfavorable for sugar - cane crushing. In India, there was little change in precipitation [55][56] 2. Market Outlook Domestic Market - In terms of the crushing schedule, no sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. Sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi agreed not to start production before November 30, 2025. Currently, the pre - sale quotes of enterprises have been lowered to the level of the 2601 contract, and the consumption situation is not optimistic. However, due to the further digestion of old sugar, most sugar groups in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the delay of new - sugar listing has increased the market's upward expectations. But from the futures price chart, the resistance around 5,500 yuan per ton for Zhengzhou sugar is effective. Although the futures price briefly broke through the 5,500 - yuan mark with increased trading volume and open interest in the later part of the week, it then reduced open interest and failed to stay above this level. With sufficient overall domestic supply, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to break out of the recent trading range, and attention should be paid to import data [59] International Market - ICE sugar futures prices have stopped falling and stabilized around 14 cents per pound, with short - covering at low prices. In terms of consumption, the market is relatively optimistic about low - price purchases, and there are also signs of Chinese purchases. In terms of global supply and demand, recent institutions have slightly lowered their production forecasts for India and Brazil, reducing the estimated supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, which has provided some support for sugar prices. International sugar prices are bottom - fishing in the short term [59] Operation Suggestion - Mainly conduct short - term trading [60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has weakened, with supply, demand, and inventory all decreasing. Considering the support from raw material costs, the price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [75]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic and policy information includes a meeting between Chinese and US leaders, resulting in tariff adjustments, suspension of some restrictions, and plans to strengthen cooperation in drug control and expand agricultural trade [7]. - China's central bank data shows that at the end of September, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates and monthly changes, with net cash injection in the first three quarters [8]. - National Bureau of Statistics data indicates a decline in national fixed - asset investment from January to September, with different trends in infrastructure, real estate development, and related construction and sales indicators [8]. 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The table shows the prices, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and coking coal, with different price trends among these commodities [22]. 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The table presents the basis data (spot - futures) and related prices of the rebar main contract on different dates [23]. 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (Various Steel Products) - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Spot - Futures) - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.13% on November 7, 2025, up from 81.75% on October 31, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profits - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On November 7, 2025, the output of four types of steel (rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 772.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.005762947 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.020802716 [44]. 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - The table shows the social inventory and its month - on - month changes of rebar on different dates [64]. 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 3.15 Rebar Mill Inventory - The table shows the mill inventory, its month - on - month changes, and social inventory data of rebar on different dates [60]. 3.15 Rebar Total Inventory - The total rebar inventory on November 7, 2025, was 592.54 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.98 million tons [65]. 3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption - On November 7, 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 218.52 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.67 million tons [68]. 4. Future Outlook - After the China - US leaders' meeting, there were tariff and policy adjustments. Fundamentally, raw material prices rose, steel mill profits declined, and some mills carried out maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the output of five major steel products this week. The supply of rebar also contracted [74]. - In terms of demand, the peak consumption season has passed, and the consumption of five major steel products and building materials has decreased. The apparent consumption is at a low level this year, and consumption is under pressure. Due to supply contraction, the total steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar [75]. - On the raw material side, the supply of imported iron ore is stable, while coal and coke supply is weak due to safety inspections and import impacts, providing price support [75].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 9, 2025 [3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: Market Review, Fundamental Analysis, and Future Outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section focuses on the price trend of the nickel futures主力合约 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore at ports [10] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, the monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from Fubao [13][15][18] - **Downstream**: Analyzes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [20][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on the 29th local time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [35] - The nickel futures in Shanghai showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of Typhoon "Seagull", supply was affected, while the Indonesian nickel ore market supply was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream ternary sales, but its medium - term strength remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel主力合约 is approximately 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel主力合约 is about 12,200 - 13,100 yuan/ton [35]

Report Title - "二育补栏降温 生猪市场回落——国信期货生猪周报" [2] Report Date - November 7, 2025 [2] Core View - This week, the live hog futures rebounded from a low level. The main LH2601 contract rose after reaching a new low on Monday, and the distant LH2609 was strong due to the expectation of capacity reduction, causing the LH79 monthly spread to decline. The spot price first fell and then stabilized, with some breeding units trying to support the price. As the spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, the basis first fell and then stabilized, mainly weakening overall. Fundamentally, the domestic breeding sow inventory has entered a decline stage, but the pace of reduction in October was still slow. In the medium term, according to the piglet birth data, the theoretical supply of standard hogs in China will gradually increase until the beginning of the second quarter of next year. In the short term, the second-round fattening replenishment increased in October, pushing the utilization rate of second-round fattening pens back to a high level. The second-round fattening replenishment will cool down in November, and it is expected that there will be no significant actions before the Spring Festival. Consumption will gradually increase from November to January, but based on the timing of the previous second-round fattening replenishment, the slaughter time of the pigs from this round of second-round fattening will be from late November to mid-December, which is also the period of rapid consumption growth. In addition, the average slaughter weight of large farms and individual farmers is still at a relatively high level. Considering the fast growth rate of live hogs in autumn and winter, the slaughter of large hogs in the later stage may suppress the performance during the peak season. The operation should be treated with a volatile perspective. [6] Operation Suggestion - Treat it with a volatile perspective [6] Directory Summary 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog futures rebounded from a low level, and the spot price first fell and then stabilized. The basis weakened overall. The domestic breeding sow inventory is in a decline stage, and the theoretical supply of standard hogs will gradually increase in the medium term. The second-round fattening replenishment will cool down in November, and the consumption will gradually increase from November to January. The slaughter of large hogs may suppress the peak season performance. [6] 2. Key Data and Charts - Not provided in the given content