Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果月报 时令水果冲击需求，苹果盘面高位回落 苹果 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 供应端来看，卓创资讯公布了最新一期冷库库存数据，据卓创资讯统计，截 至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存量约为 148.24 万吨，较去年同期减少 114.08 万吨，低于往年同期水平。分产区来看，山东产区冷库库存量约 86.41 万吨，陕 西产区冷库剩余量约 40.14 万吨。整体来看，产区库存量偏低，但随着气温逐渐 升高，冷库苹果存储成本增加，产区有一定出货压力。 需求端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，全国冷库库存比例 约为 11.22%，环比下降 1.33 个百分点，同比下滑 8.46 个百分点，去库存率为 82.36%。根据海关总署公布的数据，2025 年 4 月鲜苹果出口量约为 7.26 万吨， 环比减少 24.41%，同比减少 1.77%。 分析师：黎静宜 从业资格号：F3082440 投资咨询号：Z0019052 电话：021-55007766-305180 邮箱：15561@guosen.com.cn 国信期货交易咨询业务资 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 白糖：国际市场来看：随着北半球主产国陆续完成榨季生产，市场关注重心 已向南半球转移。南巴西开榨初期压榨进度较快，但 4 月下半月受到降雨影响进 度放缓。天气因素在短期影响比较明显。不过总体供应相对充足，国际原糖市场 缺乏持续上行动能，当前行情仍处于宽幅震荡区间中。 国内市场来看，尚未显现显著的供需矛盾，不具备趋势行情的必要条件。虽 然 5 月国内糖市供给仍以国产糖为主力，但随着进口配额发放，叠加进口成本持 续下行等多重因素，进口量放大是必然趋势，糖价上行阻力呈现增强态势。从市 场联动性分析，尽管国内市场呈现内强外弱格局，但难以完全脱离国际市场影响 而独立运行。综合来看，国内糖价阶段性冲高仍需依托国际市场行情提振。总体 运行区间参考 5750-6000 元/吨。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 操作建议：郑糖波段交易为主。 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 国信期货白糖月报 缺乏显著 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **International Natural Gas and Import Profit**: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Profit**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - **MTO Device and Traditional Downstream**: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪月报 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 供应压力逐步增加 关注降体重节奏 生猪 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 综合来看，后期理论出栏量继续增加的格局仍没有改变，供应压力上升将封 住猪价的上方空间。不过，随着市场规模化程度的提高，大企业对猪价的控制力 增强，在整体行业供需尚未达到严重过剩的状态下，猪价下跌很难顺畅。虽然目 前均重已经上升至较高的水平，但是考虑后期进入季节性上涨窗口期，部分大体 重猪可能会选择继续压栏，这会导致降体重不彻底，同时逢低抄底的二次育肥也 会带来阶段性支撑，这将导致库存出清时间点后移。因此，猪价中长期承压下， 阶段性走势仍可能表现出震荡纠结特征。而对于期货来说，盘面贴水较大，近端 合约要密切关注大体重猪出栏及后续二育进场的节奏，宜防范现货情绪好转后盘 面补基差的反弹风险。对于远端合约，整体上继续关注反弹卖空机会。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish bias in a volatile market for corn investment [1][27][28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the sown area of corn in major producing countries has increased compared to the previous year, with a particularly notable increase in US production. If the projected yields are realized, the global corn market will remain relatively宽松. Domestically, the supply of corn is tight, but factors such as the low price difference between wheat and corn, old rice auctions, and expectations of relaxed imports will cap the upside potential of corn prices. Overall, the later supply of the corn market is tightening, and there is strong support at the lower end [1][27][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since May, domestic corn spot prices have trended slightly higher in a volatile manner, while futures prices have declined. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the main futures contract C2507 has shifted from a premium to parity with the spot price. The firmness of prices at northern ports is due to the increasing willingness of grain - holding entities to hold prices. The approach of the new wheat harvest, the low price difference between wheat and corn, and the adjustment of feed formulas by some enterprises have led to doubts about the continued tightness of the corn market. The withdrawal of long - position funds is the key reason for the futures decline [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Significantly Increased Planting Area of New - Season Corn in the US - The USDA's May supply - demand report estimates that the planting area of US corn in 2025/26 will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre, a total output of 15.82 billion bushels, feed demand of 5.9 billion bushels, food and processing demand of 6.885 billion bushels, exports of 2.675 billion bushels, and an ending inventory of 1.8 billion bushels. Due to the low price and poor planting profits of soybeans in 2024/25, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations, US farmers are more inclined to plant corn, resulting in a significant increase in the sown area compared to the previous year [5] 3.2.2 Steady to Slight Increase in Future Output Expected in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's May estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 is 130 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 9% increase from the previous year's actual output. The increase is mainly due to a 3% increase in yield, thanks to sufficient rainfall in April. The output in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, consumption is expected to be 93 million tons, exports will be 43 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.58 million tons. In Argentina, the output in 25/26 is estimated to be 53 million tons, exports will be 37 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.788 million tons. Currently, the new - season output in South America is expected to increase slightly, but the forecast has limited reference value as the new - season planting is still far off [8] 3.2.3 Restorative Increase in New - Season Output Expected in Ukraine - According to the USDA's estimate, Ukraine's corn output in 25/26 is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, a 13.8% increase from 26.8 million tons in the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and yield recovery. The ending inventory will be 600,000 tons, recovering from the previous year [10] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Area and Stable to Slight Increase in Production - According to the estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the planting area of Chinese corn in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), a 0.3% increase from the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), a stable to slight increase from the previous year. The total output will be 296.16 million tons, a 0.4% increase. Overall, domestic corn production in 25/26 is expected to increase slightly. In terms of weather, the overall precipitation in the Northeast is relatively high, which has affected the sowing progress, and the spring sowing is expected to be about one week later than last year [13] 3.3.2 Reduced Impact of Imported Corn and Energy Raw Materials on the Domestic Corn Market - China's corn imports have remained at a "very low" level for several consecutive months. In the 24/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.33 million tons, a significant decrease from 19.66 million tons in the same period of the previous year. There is little import from the US for 9 consecutive months, and imports from Brazil have also significantly decreased. This is due to both the narrowing import profit and policy - controlled import volume. According to this import pace, the annual corn imports in 24/25 will be reduced by more than 10 million tons compared to the previous year. The imported energy raw materials, including sorghum, barley, wheat, and broken rice, are just over 10 million tons, about half of that in the same period of the previous year. The significant reduction in imported corn and grains will significantly reduce the supply shock in the domestic market and leave more market space for domestic corn [15] 3.3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output Compared to the Previous Year - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the inventory of breeding sows in China began to rise in the second quarter of 2024, reached a peak in the fourth quarter, and then declined. In 2025, the pig inventory will generally show an increasing trend, but the expansion slope of this cycle is relatively gentle compared to previous cycles. In the poultry industry, laying hens have been profitable for 4 consecutive years, and the production scale is entering an expansion cycle, while the production of meat poultry is relatively stable. Overall, the feed consumption of poultry is expected to increase. For ruminant feed, the cattle - raising industry suffered heavy losses last year, and the consumption of ruminant feed is expected to remain at a low level this year. In general, the production and sales of feed this year are expected to increase compared to the previous year. In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, a 4.2% increase from the previous month and a 9.0% increase from the same period of the previous year, with a significant year - on - year increase for 4 consecutive months [17] 3.3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - In the deep - processing industry, due to weak macro - economic growth and general downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing is poor. In the future, the Sino - US tariff confrontation and the severe foreign trade situation will continue to put pressure on the product sales of deep - processing enterprises, meaning that there is limited room for significant improvement in the profit of deep - processing enterprises, which may limit corn consumption. From 24/25 to date, the corn consumption of sample enterprises is roughly the same as the previous year, and the corn consumption of corn alcohol enterprises has decreased significantly, reflecting the weak growth of deep - processing demand. It is expected that the deep - processing demand for corn in 24/25 will be the same as or slightly less than the previous year [20] 3.3.5 Increased Substitution of Wheat for Corn, but Large - Scale Substitution is Not Expected - Since April, as the corn price has risen, the price difference between wheat and corn has significantly decreased. After May, the price difference rebounded slightly, but wheat still shows a strong cost - performance advantage over corn. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn mainly occurs in major wheat - producing areas such as Henan and Shandong, and has not spread to Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong. Whether it will expand further remains to be observed. As the domestic wheat harvest progresses, the output, quality, and price of new - season wheat have become the focus of the market, which also has a significant impact on the future trend of the corn market. This year, many wheat - producing areas have experienced drought, but the scope of yield reduction in major wheat - producing areas in North China is limited. However, whether the dry - hot wind will cause further yield reduction needs further tracking. In late May, heavy rain in most parts of Henan may lead to a sudden change from drought to flood, and there is a possibility of sprouted wheat during the harvest period. In terms of policy, the State Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has taken active measures to keep grain prices at a reasonable level. Considering the early layout of summer grain purchases by the government this year and the fact that the rotation prices in some areas are higher than the minimum purchase price, it is expected that the domestic wheat price will not drop significantly. Therefore, it is initially expected that the large - scale substitution of wheat for corn is unlikely [25]

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）月报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 低位盘整 持续震荡 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 5 月 25 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2507，2025 年 5 月 22 日收于 123540 元/吨，本月 镍价整体呈震荡走势。 宏观层面，当地时间 5 月 10 日至 11 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举 行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年 1 月 17 日中美元首通话重要共识进行 了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当地时间 5 月 12 日上午 9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发 言人就此发表谈话。美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，修改 2025 年 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令对中国商品加征的 34%的对等关税，其中 24%的关税暂 停加征 90 天 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

国信期货软商品月报 短期存在支撑 郑棉偏强运行 棉花 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 5 月 25 日 主要结论 棉花：国内市场综合来看，棉价下方空间比较有限。供应方面国内商业库存 偏低，进口大幅收紧，总体供应压力不大。消费方面，纯棉纱市场整体交投尚可， 目前内地纺企即期现金流处于微亏状态，但新疆纺企仍有利润。成品库存略高， 但是纺企开机表现较为坚挺，库存有小幅去化库存的趋势。抢出口影响下，短期 外需仍有支撑。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 国际市场综合来看，全球仍旧承压，美国农业部 5 月报告对于全球供应有所 上调。天气方面，前期旱情得到较大的缓解。美棉出口方面，新作销售不理想， 中国采购迟迟未启动。宏观方面由于美国总统政治不确定性较强，90 天后是否 会再度恶化仍有变数，美棉预计维持 64-70 美分/磅之间的震荡。 证监许可【2012】116 号 操作建议：郑棉短线交易为主。 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has rebounded, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. The technical analysis shows that the downside space for rubber prices may be limited, and future operations can be based on an oscillating and bullish approach [2][71] Group 2: Market Review - The report presents the weekly trends of the Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, and synthetic rubber main contracts, as well as the spread trend between the futures active contracts RU - NR and the basis of synthetic rubber BR futures and spot [9][12][14] Group 3: Rubber Fundamentals 3.1 Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. The ANRPC's March 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in March will increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.4% to 14.897 million tons. The export volume of rubber in Cote d'Ivoire from January to April 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year [26][30] - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import volume was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase [33] - As of Thursday, the total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures on the SHFE decreased by 320 tons week - on - week to 200,340 tons, while the total warehouse receipt inventory of No. 20 rubber futures increased by 5,945 tons to 75,196 tons [36] - As of the week of May 9, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.52 million tons to 4.907 million tons, with the bonded area inventory increasing by 0.59 million tons and the general trade inventory decreasing by 70,000 tons [38] 3.2 Demand - Side - From January to March 2025, China's tire outer - tube production increased by 4.4% year - on - year to 283.634 million pieces [42] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 40 billion yuan, a 7% increase [44] - This week, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.07%, up 20.32% from last week, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.96%, up 19.98% from last week [47] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat trend [56] - At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China decreased slightly to 10.93 million pieces, while the total inventory of semi - steel tires increased slightly to 18.14 million pieces [59] 3.3 Related Product Prices and Inventories - The report also presents the price trend of butadiene and the inventory situation of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises [61][63] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of May 16, the spot prices of 23 - year SCRWF and Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber in the Shanghai market declined. Currently, the fundamentals lack core positive support, downstream demand is average, and new rubber output is expected to increase. However, the rainfall in Thailand may affect the output rhythm, and the increase in imports in China will suppress price movements [70]