Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Iron Alloy Accelerates Production Cuts, Awaiting Coal Price Stabilization - Guoxin Futures Iron Alloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, last week both the futures and spot prices rose by 100 yuan/ton with the basis unchanged. The price is low and producers' profits are poor. Production decreased further, with the supply - demand gap emerging in the industry chain. It's recommended to go long with a light position, awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - For ferrosilicon, last week the futures price rose while the spot price remained flat, and the basis slightly narrowed. The supply side saw a sharp production cut, and the supply - demand gap widened with major manufacturers showing a clear intention to maintain prices. It's also recommended to go long with a light position [47]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Macro - news**: The "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. China's 1 - 4 social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The US initial jobless claims were 229,000, in line with market expectations. China's auto production and sales exceeded 10 million in the first 4 months, with new - energy vehicles growing rapidly. The retail sales of white goods showed different trends online and offline in April [5]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures and spot prices rose last week. The basis had different year - on - year, 30 - day, and weekly changes in different regions. The price of manganese ore also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Information about its futures price increase, spot price stability, and basis change was provided, along with data on the change of main - producing area electricity prices [12][18]. 2. Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - **Manganese ore**: Included information on manganese ore prices, import volume, and inventory over the years [21][24][25]. - **Manganese silicon**: Covered profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [27][29][33]. 3. Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - **Ferrosilicon**: Included profit estimation, production volume in different time periods, and the relationship with steel production [36][39][44]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - **Manganese silicon**: The futures and spot prices rose last week, production decreased, and it's recommended to go long with a light position awaiting coal price stabilization [47]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price rose, the spot price was flat, production cut sharply, and it's recommended to go long with a light position [47].

研究所 宏观回暖 铁矿震荡反弹 ----国信期货铁矿石周报 2025年5月18日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 受中美谈判影响，铁矿石本周震荡反弹。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.2 铁矿现货走势 | PB粉 | 770 | 806 | | --- | --- | --- | | 超特粉 | 639 | 837 | | 金布巴粉 | 733 | 881 | | 巴混 | 786 | 807 | | 麦克 | 751 | 816 | | 纽曼 | 763 | 823 | 品种 价格 仓单 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 | 品类 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 主力基差 | 36.5 | | 09-01 | 38.5 | | pb-超特 | ...

研究所 生柴政策多变 美豆油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年5月18日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆先扬后抑，价格较前一周有所上移。周一CBOT大豆创下三个月新高，贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部报告利多帮助大豆价格回升至贸易沖突前水平。美国 农业部预计2025/26年度美国大豆期末库存为2.95亿蒲式耳，分析师预计为3.62亿蒲式耳。美国农业部预计2024/25年度美国大豆期末库存为3.5亿蒲式耳，而4月份的预测是3.7亿蒲式耳，分 析师的预期是3,69亿蒲式耳。 美豆库存下调显示偏紧格局。随后美豆继续刷新高点，据知情人士透露，美国众议院税收委员会拟议的草案计划将45Z清洁燃料税收抵免政策延长至2031年12 月31日，美豆油飙升拉动美豆持续走高。周四美豆高位大幅回落，市场传闻美国可再生燃料义务（RVO）计划可能削减，环保署署长李•泽尔丁在参议院听证会中表达出的谨慎态度，引发了 对生物柴油需求前景的担忧。美豆回吐本周涨幅。与之相比，国 ...

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol supply remains high as some previously overhauled methanol plants resumed stable operation in May. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the significant increase in imported cargoes at coastal public terminals is expected, with an estimated arrival volume of 930,000 tons in mid - to - late May, leading to limited upward potential in prices [44]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of the methanol main contract MA2509 was 2,284 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.42%. It shed 50,000 lots, and the open interest was 710,000 lots. The port basis continued to weaken [6]. - Inland methanol prices first declined and then rose. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,116 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from last week. Some olefin enterprises continued to make external purchases, and the overall transaction center moved upward. The coastal methanol market rebounded from the low level. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,429 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from last week. With the improvement of macro - sentiment and the restart expectation of coastal downstream, the negotiation and transaction center of coastal methanol moved slightly upward [9]. - In the overseas market, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month was 265 - 268 US dollars/ton, and that of Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was +0.7 - 1.5%. A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia was under maintenance. As of now, two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 3.45 million tons were shut down, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 335 - 340 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of May 15, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 75.50%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week but up 10.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 82.42%, down 1.15 percentage points from last week but up 13.11 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - **Methanol Imports and Exports**: The import arbitrage window was open, and the re - export profit remained relatively high [18]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 629,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The overall coastal inventory increased steadily, and the raw material inventory of downstream factories also rose. The estimated tradable methanol supply in the coastal area was 254,000 tons, and the short - term available supply was scarce. It is expected that the volume of imported methanol vessels arriving in China in mid - to - late May will be 930,000 tons [22]. - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: The international natural gas price slightly declined to around 3.7 US dollars/MMBtu, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol increased to around 1,780 yuan/ton [25]. - **Methanol Upstream - Coal**: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak this week, with coal prices continuing to decline. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly [28]. - **Methanol Downstream Price and Operating Rate**: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was about 58.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [30]. - **Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: Not elaborated in detail in the text. - **Methanol Downstream - MTO**: The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 77.52%, up 1.53 percentage points from last week. The average load of externally - purchased MTO plants was 75.68%, up 8.51 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia Baofeng (Phase I) resumed production, Zhongmei Yulin entered maintenance on May 10, Ningxia Baofeng (Phase II) shut down this week for a planned one - month maintenance. Zhongmei Mengda has a maintenance plan in late June, and Sierbang plans to restart in late May [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The domestic methanol supply remains high. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the expected increase in imported cargoes will limit the upward potential of prices [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils. This week, the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for building materials, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates all rose, with inventory continuing to decline. The better - than - expected result of the China - US trade negotiation falsified the pessimistic expectation on the export side, and the market re - examined the supply - demand situation and expectations, resulting in a short - term corrective rebound. However, from the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, future demand still has great uncertainty, and hot - rolled coils face significant pressure. In terms of trends, there is a short - term rebound but significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [10][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Trend Review - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils [10]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Hot - rolled coil basis**: The 01 basis is 28, the 05 basis is 38, and the 10 basis is 40 [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Hot - rolled coil profit**: The 01 contract's on - disk profit is 430, the 05 contract's on - disk profit is 212, the 10 contract's on - disk profit is 360, and the production profit is 191 [31]. - **Output**: The hot - rolled coil output is 311.98, the cold - rolled coil output is 87.86, the rebar output is 226.53, and the output of the five major steel products is 868.35 [33]. - **Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil inventory is 347.57, the cold - rolled coil inventory is 169.2, the rebar inventory is 619.87, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1430.66 [38]. - **Export**: Exports remain strong [47]. 4. Future Outlook - The hot - rolled coil market shows a short - term rebound but faces significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the national corn spot price first rose and then stabilized, showing an overall high - level consolidation pattern. Futures were weaker than the spot, leading to a higher basis. New - season corn planting area and output are expected to increase steadily compared to the previous year, but the spring sowing progress in the Northeast is slower. Old - crop corn inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is suppressed. Overall, the corn price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the operation should follow a volatile thinking [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Corn Futures Market Changes No relevant content provided. 2. Starch Futures Market Changes No relevant content provided. 3. Corn Spot Market Changes - The national corn spot price first rose and then stabilized, with the Northeast remaining stable, North China adjusting slightly, northern ports stable, and southern ports rising slightly. The report also provides a table of various price data and the Guangdong - North Port trade theoretical profit (latest value: - 45.0; weekly change: 10.0) [7][29]. 4. Starch Spot Market Changes No relevant content provided. 5. Corn Starch Spread No relevant content provided. 6. Corn Planting Situation - Since May, the temperature in the Northeast has been low and rainfall has been frequent, causing the spring sowing progress to be about one week later than the same period last year. From May 17th to 23rd, most of the northern spring - sowing areas will have fine weather, but there will be obvious precipitation in some areas, which will briefly hinder spring - sowing operations [50]. 6. Corn Selling Progress No relevant content provided. 7. Corn Import No relevant content provided. 8. Feed and Aquaculture Demand No relevant content provided. 10. Deep - processing Demand - The deep - processing profit has continued to deteriorate, the operating rate has decreased, and the deep - processing demand may be poor in the later stage [7]. 11. Starch Production, Sales and Inventory No relevant content provided. 12. Corn Starch Downstream Demand No relevant content provided. 13. Substitutes - The wheat - corn price difference is low, and the substitution effect suppresses the feed demand for corn [7]. 14. North Port Corn Dynamics No relevant content provided. 15. South Port Corn Dynamics No relevant content provided. 16. South Port Grain Dynamics No relevant content provided. 17. US Corn Futures Market No relevant content provided. 18. US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress No relevant content provided. 19. US Corn Export Sales No relevant content provided. 20. Brazilian Corn Crop Progress No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline this week with a slight rebound. With the inventory at a five - year low, the supply and demand situation is complex. The current apple is in the off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, and the downstream demand is under pressure. Although the export performance was good in the first quarter, the export volume may slow down. Short - term operation suggests waiting and seeing [8][35] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline with a slight rebound [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the total remaining amount of apples in national cold storage was 1.6582 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold - storage remaining amount in Shandong was 951,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 447,200 tons. Shaanxi storage merchants generally had a strong reluctance to sell and asked for high prices, while Shandong storage merchants were more willing to ship [13][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Sales**: As of May 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 12.55%, a 1.92 - percentage - point decline from the previous period and a 9.82 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The destocking rate was 80.27%. The apple is in the sales off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, the downstream demand is impacted, the enthusiasm of merchants for high - price purchases has declined, the e - commerce platform sales volume has decreased, and the shipping speed in the production area has slowed down [18][35] - **Export**: In March 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,100 tons, a 40.82% increase from the previous month and a 1.71% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to March was about 255,600 tons, a 9.53% increase year - on - year. However, as the price of origin goods rises, the profit margin of traders is compressed, and the export volume may slow down [20] - **Substitute Fruit Price**: Not provided - **Origin Spot Price**: As of May 16, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of different grades of apples varied, but the high labor price, low packaging volume, and reduced cold - storage trading volume [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar price has limited upside and downside space, oscillating between 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The international sugar price also has limited fluctuation due to mixed fundamental factors, and macro factors like crude oil price fluctuations also impact it. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.27%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8] Spot Price and Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in April was 65.22%, 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18] Sugar Imports - In March, imports were 80,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 18 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,937 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,288 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost is 4,897 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,235 yuan/ton [23] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in April was 3.8626 million tons, a decrease of 344,800 tons compared to the same period last year [26] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 32,930, a decrease of 329 from the previous week. There were 31,553 warehouse receipts and 1,377 valid forecasts [34] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of April, the cumulative crushing volume was 34.257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.98%, and the sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62% [38] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 45.27%, compared to 46.98% in the same period last year [40] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in April were 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared to the same period last year [47] International Main Production Area Weather - Precipitation in India has increased. Rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil has decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing [54][55] 2. Market Outlook - Domestic market: The domestic sales progress is the fastest since 2025, with sugar mills completing nearly 70% of sales in an increased - production context, leading to strong industry reluctance to sell. However, due to the foreign market falling below 17 cents/pound, there is an import profit in the domestic market, and imports are expected to increase significantly. With the recent issuance of import quotas (about 2.6 million tons), sugar supply is relatively abundant. Although it is the off - season for consumption, market expectations for consumption are not overly pessimistic as the weather warms up. - International market: The production data in the second half of April in southern Brazil was significantly lower than market expectations, providing short - term support for sugar prices. There are concerns about the total sugar production due to the low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand before the new sugar is on the market [58]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Continued Low-level Rebound, Focus on Demand Recovery - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, continued to rebound with a slight decline [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - As of May 15, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 6,028 yuan/ton, up 1.14% from last week; imported hardwood pulp was 4,213 yuan/ton, up 0.91%; imported natural pulp was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 0.61%; imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,842 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12] - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively [15] - The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, etc. was 2.1948 million tons, up 11.24% from last week [18] - In April 2025, the inventory of European chemical pulp was 695,800 tons, up 3.62% year-on-year, and the inventory days were 26 days, up 1 day from the same period last year. Most European countries' port inventories increased month-on-month, driving the total European port inventory to increase in April [21] Group 4: Outlook - The latest round of quotations from international pulp mills has lowered the price of imported hardwood pulp, and the inventory accumulation in European ports is a short-term negative for the market. Domestically, the price of base paper is weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Pay attention to the progress of demand recovery. If the downstream operating load rate rebounds month-on-month, it may boost industry expectations. If the Sino-US tariffs are unexpectedly reduced, there is a willingness to push up prices in the market due to the inverted shipping price. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long at low prices [31]