Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound, with a continued atmosphere of long - short game, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures LC2605 rose and then fell, closing at 92,800 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading and positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued but with reduced heat. The term structure shows "near - weak and far - strong" differentiation [1] - On the supply side, the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted, with limited short - term supply increase. As of December 9, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1,165 US dollars/ton, and the production and theoretical delivery profits of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica are negative, which may support the bottom of the lithium carbonate futures price [2] - On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. It is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate operating rate in December will remain above 70%. The market expects the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy to continue, and the overall inventory continues to decline, with downstream inventory rising slightly and terminal replenishment mainly for rigid demand [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium mine approval process, but the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increase is limited. The positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry's investment rating is "Weak operation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a state of weak operation due to weak demand and a decline in raw material prices [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog - **Jilin Province's winter storage situation**: The winter storage sentiment for construction steel in Jilin Province has significantly cooled. The total planned winter storage volume of sample enterprises in 2026 is 12.8 tons, a decrease of 4.6 tons or 26.4% compared to the actual winter storage volume in 2025. Market participation willingness has declined overall, especially among small and medium-sized traders [1] - **Heilongjiang Province's winter storage situation**: The winter storage situation in Heilongjiang is worse than last year. The total planned winter storage volume of 10 sample enterprises in 2025 is 8.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. Most traders are bearish on the future market this winter [1] - **Steel price performance**: The finished steel prices fell again yesterday, showing three consecutive negative days. Both varieties gave back previous gains and reached new recent lows. Rebar prices returned above 3,000, and hot - rolled coil prices returned above 3,200. Weak downstream demand and cold weather put pressure on prices. The recent decline in coking coal prices has further dragged down steel prices [1]

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季施压上方空间 关注美联储会议 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位调整。宏观上就业市场数据好于预期，凸显出在美联储 预期降息之前劳动力市场仍有韧性，决策者可能会强调通胀风险，这可能制约进 一步的宽 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：降息预期强烈 关注需求延续 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 2025 年 12 月 9 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场几乎已经消化了美联储将降息的 预期，分析师预计美联储将"鹰派降息"，其声明措辞、中位数预测、以 及主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会都将暗示进一步降息的门槛提高。国内工信部 筹划"十五五"工作，强调促进工业平稳增长、保障重点产业链安全及整 治"内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of stable supply and weak demand, coking coal and coke prices lack upward momentum and are expected to face downward pressure. The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures have gradually shifted to the 2605 contract, and the prices have not yet stabilized, so operations should be cautious [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward, and the prices remained weak at night. Affected by the weak delivery logic, the 01 contract of coking coal led the decline. The spot market was generally weak, with domestic coal prices experiencing a supplementary decline. Steel mills completed the first round of price cuts for coke and there were still expectations of further cuts [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: It is expected that the supply of coking coal will remain relatively stable. The production of domestic coking coal mines is not significantly boosted by coal supply guarantees, and it is difficult for coking coal output to increase significantly during the off - season of downstream demand. However, imports remain at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal increased to 19.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.77 tons. The total arrival volume of seaborne coal last week was 958.63 tons, reaching a new high since November last year [3] - Demand: The pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is around 35%, and the blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline, continuously suppressing the rigid demand for raw materials. Since December, steel mills have started to transfer the pressure to the raw material end. The key variable in demand lies in the inventory replenishment rhythm before the Spring Festival. If downstream enterprises start to replenish raw material inventories intensively in mid - to - late December, the demand side may receive phased support, but the intensity of replenishment will still be restricted by the sales and profits of finished products, and the sustainability is expected to be weak [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求加速回落 关注宏观驱动 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 需求方面：国内需求加速回落，主要原因是终端需求不足，钢厂年度检修增加，需求季节性 回落以及高炉盈利率处于三年同期低位，偏弱现实将限制价格上方高度。据 Mysteel 调研显示本 期新增 12 座高炉检修，6 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要发生在新疆、山西、江苏、四川、湖南、湖 北等地区，主要因为下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检修，检修时长多在 20 天以上，个别高炉检修 时长在 100 天以上:高炉复产发生在河北、东北地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，下游需求尚可， 按计划复产。 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，本期小幅回升，高价 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工分化 关注高价位反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上市场普遍预计美联储下周会议将降 息，并将关注未来政策路径的信号，美元持续走软，有色金属价格受到提 振，铜铝价格在近期强势上涨。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷， ...

成材：供需双降 钢价整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 5 日 晨报 成材 逻辑：本周五大钢材品种供应 828.95 万吨，周环比降 26.76 万吨，降 幅为 3.1%；总库存 1365.59 万吨，周环比降 35.22 万吨，降幅为 2.5%； 周度表观消费量为 864.17 万吨，环比降 2.7%，其中建材消费降 5.8%，板 材消费降 0.9%。山东钢厂及部分废钢回收加工企业冬储意愿持续降温， 11 家样本钢厂中，7 家钢厂存在冬储计划，但计划冬储量 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 价格高位震荡 关注宏观驱动 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：昨日黑色系延续窄幅震荡，成材价格难以突破上行对铁矿石形成抑制，突破上方价 格仍需宏观增量加持。近期铁矿石盘面价格相对强势，港口现货价格基本持平，基差继续收缩， 主要由盘面向现货回归。现货能维持高位主要原因是成材库存持续去化，市场对淡季负反馈预 期减弱，国内铁水季节性下滑但下降斜率尚未超预期，另一方面现货贸易限制对中低品价格形 成支撑，普氏价格在淡季不降反升，对盘面价格形成带动。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比升，其中澳洲小幅回升，巴西发运回升显著。从季节性规律 以及今年主流矿山发运目标来看，外矿供给高峰期或已过，后期供给压力或环比回落。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求延续环比回落走势，需求季节性回落以及高炉盈利率大幅下滑，将限 制价格上方高度。据我的钢铁网调研，本期新增 10 座高炉检修，3 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要 发生在南方地区，主要因亏损范围扩大叠加需求走弱，对高炉进行年检，除个 ...