Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工，需关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观致价格重心下移，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -昨日铝价偏强震荡，美国5月CPI升0.1%低于预期，交易商认为美联储9月降息可能性68% [3] -6月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降0.4个百分点至60.9%，铝线缆板块订单分化走弱 [4] -6月9日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存47.7万吨，较上周四降2.7万吨，较5月底降3.4万吨，去库因供应偏紧、到货量低及消费端韧性 [4] -短期铝价区间调整，库存去化支撑价格，关注淡旺季交替和宏观政策变动 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content For Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, with different shutdown times and a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2] For Aluminum Ingots - The impact of previous news on ore prices has stabilized, alumina enterprises continue to resume production, and spot inventory is gradually increasing pressure [2] - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong, with the weekly starting rate dropping 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [2] - On June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from last Thursday and 34,000 tons from the end of May [2] - The core driver of inventory reduction is the tight supply, with a decrease in ingot casting volume and low actual arrivals, resulting in a shortage of circulating goods [2] - In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the annual low of 440,000 tons [2] - Overseas macro instability exists, and the price is under pressure in the off - season. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with inventory reduction supporting the price [3] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro expectations, geopolitical crises, ore resumption, and consumption release [3]

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 震荡调整 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 11 日 逻辑：中国钢铁工业协会 9 日发布文章《维护产业链整体利益 共同 抵制"内卷式"竞争》。文章倡议：钢铁、汽车产业应凝聚共识、苦练内 功、加强自律、共破"内卷"，以科技创新推动产业链健康可持续发展， 以实际行动维护公平有序的市场秩序。6 月 2 日-6 月 8 日，10 个重点城 市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总计 129.67 万平方米，环比下降 26.9%， 同比下降 17.5%；二手房成交（签约）面积总计 185.19 万平方米，环比 下降 11.8%，同比下降 9.5%。中国工程机械工业协会：5 月销售各类挖掘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term market sentiment is warming, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both coal - coke supply and demand are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [2]. 3. Content Summary - **Price Trend**: Recently, coal - coke prices have shown a bottom - up rebound, driven by factors such as short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and price rebounds are still under pressure. On the spot side, port coke出库 quotes have risen slightly, and the origin price has stabilized after the 3rd round of cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May. Coking coal prices remain weakly stable without a rebound [2]. - **Supply Situation**: With the coal price rebound, there are continuous rumors of supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production continues a slight downward trend, but there is no large - scale production halt or reduction, and the upstream inventory accumulation situation cannot be changed. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Coal mine raw coal inventory is 670.8 million tons, an increase of 29.7 million tons compared to the previous period and an increase of 335.7 million tons year - on - year. Clean coal inventory is 480.7 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons compared to the previous period and an increase of 204 million tons year - on - year [2]. - **Demand Situation**: Coal - coke demand continues a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 241.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared to the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in production, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. The fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term market sentiment is warming and supports coal prices to some extent, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure is still large. Rebounds should be treated with caution [2].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：终端需求悲观 矿价跟随运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 后期关注/风险因素：焦煤价格变动、主流矿山发运、中美贸易磋商 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 10 日 逻辑：近期黑色系市场交投重心仍以终端需求悲观预期为主，成材表需呈现出淡季特征， 碳元素不断让利于铁元素(碳元素现货端并 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [2] -铝锭预计价格短期偏弱震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右 [1] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日开始停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别钢厂1月20日后停产，停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [2] -成材震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2] 铝锭 -美联储官员不急于降息，国内5月CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，部分领域供需改善价格有积极变化 [1] -全国氧化铝周度开工率回升0.54个百分点至78.75%，下游铝加工周度开工率下降0.4个百分点至60.9% [2] -6月9日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存47.7万吨，较上周四下降2.7万吨，较5月底下降3.4万吨，去库因供应端偏紧和消费端韧性 [2] -短期低到货量支撑库存预计维持去化趋势，关注能否刷新44万吨年内低点 [2] -海外宏观不稳定，步入淡季铝价面临压力，短期预计区间调整，库存去化支撑价格 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is warming up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices was weak, and they weakened again at night. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with this round's decline increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton. Since mid - May, the three - round cumulative decline has been 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also maintained a weak and stable operation [3] Import Data - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 188.722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 2.938 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [3] Domestic Coal Production - Domestic coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale shutdown or production reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 78,000 tons. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 297,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.357 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.04 million tons [3] Demand Situation - The demand for coking coal and coke continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 605,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in production, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound was still insufficient [3]

晨报 成材 成材：市场变化不大 钢价反弹偏空对待 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 10 日 逻辑：2025 年 5 月中国出口钢材 1057.8 万吨，较上月增加 11.6 万 吨，环比增长 1.1%；1-5 月累计出口钢材 4846.9 万吨，同比增长 8.9%。 2025 年 5 月中国出口汽车 69.5 万辆；1-5 月累计出口 285.3 万辆，同比 增长 16.8%。2025 年 5 月中国出口家用电器 38588.8 万台；1-5 月累计出 口 184253.4 万台，同比增长 6.1%。6 月 9 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材 钢厂平均成本为 3264 元/吨，环比上周五增加 4 元/吨，平均利润为-125 元/吨，谷电利润为-21 元/吨，环比上周五增加 1 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日震荡整理，继续在当前位置盘整，但上涨动力较上周下降。 目前已进入需求淡季，短期来看下游难有有效改善，且仍有进一步下降空 间。根据当前情况看，仍建议 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].