晨报 成材 成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价窄幅震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 4 日 逻辑：国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内 需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。要因地制宜 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格支撑较强 关注宏观情绪 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上周三美国公布的 ADP 就业报告显示， 11 月份美国私营企业就业岗位减少 3.2 万个，低于经济学家预期的增加 1 万个，美元持续走软，关注更多数据指引。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has significantly increased. This week enters the macro window period, and it is expected that the weight of macro drivers will increase [3]. - The improvement of the domestic finished product inventory structure, the relatively low decline rate of iron ore demand, and the restrictions on port spot trading jointly push up the spot price. The basis of the futures contract is reverting from the futures to the spot. Later, attention should be paid to the pressure on inventory depletion brought by the increase in rebar production [3]. - Throughout the year, both from the perspective of the weak industrial reality and seasonal patterns, molten iron production will show a downward trend, and the inventory will generally tend to accumulate. In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has increased compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has slightly recovered, and the shipment from Brazil has recovered significantly. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, the peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease later [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continues to decline month - on - month. The seasonal decline in demand and the significant decline in the blast furnace profitability rate will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel's survey, 10 new blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance this period, and 3 blast furnaces were restarted. Blast furnace maintenance mainly occurred in the southern region due to the expansion of losses and weakening demand. Blast furnace restarts occurred in Hebei and Jiangsu after the end of maintenance. As raw material prices rise, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a relatively low level. High prices have suppressed the restocking demand. Later, attention should be paid to when the steel mills will fully start restocking. Port inventory has started to accumulate again, mainly because the arrival volume has increased month - on - month. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Adopt range - bound operation and sell call options [3].

晨报 成材 逻辑：11 月 24 日-30 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面 积总计 211.12 万平方米，环比增长 10%，同比下降 38%。11 月份全国建 筑钢材日均成交量为 10.04 万吨，月环比下降 0.09%，年同比下降 13.19%。 据乘联分会，11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 172 万辆，同比 增长 20%，环比增长 7%。今年以来累计批发 1378 万辆，同比增长 29%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日窄幅震荡。基本面矛盾不大，市场在临近年底后对宏观有一 定预期，且原料反弹对钢价带来承托。但目前弱需求未改变，钢价或在当 前区域整理运行。 成材：市场情绪回升 钢价窄幅震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a downward - centering and weak manner, and will be in an oscillatory consolidation state, with attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the inventory shows a slight decline, and the price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and changes in the ratio of inventory to consumption [1][4] Summary by Related Content 成材 (Finished Products) - Yungui area short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] 原材料 - 铝 (Raw Materials - Aluminum) - In November, China's bauxite production decreased by 1.56% month - on - month and 5.26% year - on - year; domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.47% year - on - year and decreased by 2.82% month - on - month. Since November, electrolytic aluminum has gradually shifted from the peak consumption season to the off - season, with a decline in downstream operating rates and a lower proportion of molten aluminum [3] - In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to start production from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, and attention should be paid to the relevant commissioning progress [3] - Last week, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing materials increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, recycled aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while that of sheet - strip - foil remained flat. The auto - related fields are relatively stable, but the construction industry is still sluggish [3] - On December 1, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 17,000 tons lower than last Monday [3] 有色金属 (Non - ferrous Metals) - Supported by macro - sentiment, there is still an expectation of tightened overseas supply in the fundamentals. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, there is a short - term delay in consumption realization, and the inventory trend is volatile. The price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to macro - guidance and the ratio of inventory to consumption [4]

从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 板块共振上行 基差持续收敛 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日黑色系共振上行，碳元素超跌反弹，成材价格持续走强提振产业链估值水平。 近期铁矿石盘面价格相对强势，港口现货价格基本持平，基差继续收缩，主要由盘面向现货回 归。现货能维持高位主要原因是成材库存持续去化，市场对淡季负反馈预期减弱，国内铁水季 节性下滑但下降斜率尚未超预期，另一方面现货贸易限制对中低品价格形成支撑，普氏价格在 淡季不降反升，对盘面价格形成带动。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比升，其中澳洲小幅回升，巴西发运回升显著。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the coal and coke industry remain weak with stable domestic coal production, high - level Mongolian coal imports, and a downward trend in domestic hot metal production, but there are signs of increasing market trading of macro - level policy expectations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, leading the black metal sector with sharp price fluctuations. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The spot market was generally weak, with coal prices in some domestic regions experiencing supplementary declines, and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented in mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong [2] Fundamentals - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi decreased due to various reasons for shutdowns, and most shutdowns were for a long time, so there was little room for a significant increase in coal mine output in the short term. In December, some coal mines said that the year - end production tasks were nearly completed, the pressure on safety production was high, and the downstream's willingness to purchase weakened, leading to a slight increase in self - controlled production and reduction by coal mines. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 76.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million tons. The daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal last week slightly decreased to 17 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week, but the overall customs clearance level remained high, and the ports continued to increase inventory, with the decline in Mongolian coal prices dragging down domestic coal prices [2] - **Demand side**: The demand continued to be under pressure. The procurement rhythm of downstream coal - using enterprises slowed down recently, causing the upstream mines to accumulate inventory. The coking production was okay, but the profitability of steel mills shrank, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the daily average hot metal output dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared with last year, with room for further decline in December [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]

报告行业投资评级 - The investment rating for the steel industry is that the steel price is expected to move in a consolidation range [3] 报告的核心观点 - The steel industry is in a downward trend in demand with huge cost pressure, and should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development [2] - As of November 30, 17 cities have introduced 19 property market relaxation policies, and the real estate industry is accelerating towards the "what you see is what you get" era [2] - The steel price oscillated and rebounded yesterday, with the main contract shifting to the 05 contract. The steel price may move in the current range due to weak demand and some macro - expectations at the end of the year [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 - The steel industry should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development, build a new paradigm of "digital steel", empower industrial chain collaboration, and achieve green and low - carbon transformation [2] - As of November 30, 17 cities introduced 19 property market relaxation policies, and many places implemented full - completed - housing sales [2] - The steel price oscillated and rebounded yesterday, the main contract shifted to 05, the fundamental contradiction is not significant, the market has certain macro - expectations at the end of the year, and the raw material rebound supports the steel price, but the weak demand remains unchanged [2] - The steel price is expected to move in a consolidation range, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪提振 关注淡季需求 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 2 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上受美国经济数据疲软以及美联储官员做出 鸽派发言的影响，交易员认为 12 月降息的概率提高至 87%。美国制造业 11 月连 续第九个月萎缩，工厂面临订单下滑和原材料价格上涨的双重压力，进口关税的 拖累持续存在。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black market is expected to experience low - level oscillations with a slight rebound. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the iron ore market will see the futures price moving towards the spot price, with short - term interval operations recommended. The coal - coke market is expected to have the basis repaired, and the ferroalloy market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation [12][13][15][16]. Summary According to the Directory 01 周度行情回顾 - **Price Changes**: The prices of most varieties showed fluctuations. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2601 increased by 1.73% from 3057 to 3110, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose by 0.93% from 3220 to 3250. The price of coking coal JM2601 decreased by 3.26% from 1103 to 1067, and the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 2.82% from 1420 to 1380 [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **Steel**: The supply side may tighten as the impact of production line maintenance on output is expected to shrink significantly. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a view of low - level oscillations and a slight rebound. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price is moving towards the spot price. The supply pressure of foreign mines may decline, and the domestic demand is decreasing. It is recommended to conduct interval operations in the short term, with the price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore ranging from 765 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The domestic coal production is stabilizing, but the high - level import of coal and the decreasing domestic hot - metal output may lead to a decline in the spot market, and the basis is expected to be repaired. The futures price is expected to oscillate near the lower limit of the range (1100 - 1300) [15]. - **Ferroalloy**: The demand side lacks resilience and is expected to weaken further. The supply - side contraction is not as expected, and the market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side and downstream demand [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - **Rebar**: The weekly output was 206.08 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 227.94 tons, a decrease of 2.85 tons. The total inventory was 531.48 tons, a decrease of 21.86 tons [19][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The weekly output was 319.01 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, a decrease of 4.20 tons. The total inventory was 400.90 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons [31][37]. 铁矿石 - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported ore was 15210.12 tons, an increase of 155.47 tons compared to the previous week. The daily port throughput was 330.58 tons/day, an increase of 0.66 tons/day [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8942.48 tons, a decrease of 58.785 tons compared to the previous week. The daily consumption was 289.43 tons/day, a decrease of 2.25 tons/day [61]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3323.3 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons compared to the previous week. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2663.2 tons, an increase of 65.7 tons [69]. 煤焦 - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.1 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons [95]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2635.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons [101]. 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the previous week. The spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous week [132]. - **Output**: The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon was 194775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.72 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous week [139][141]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel products was 121727 tons, an increase of 320 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 19660 tons, an increase of 117 tons compared to the previous week [144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese silicon was 368000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 71830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons compared to the previous week [147].