晨报 碳酸锂 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡托底，区间震荡走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 宏观政策方面，美联储降息叠加青海"十五五"盐湖产业规划，为碳 酸锂长期供需格局提供支撑。市场情绪上，叠加近期海外资源/复产消息多 有扰动，盘面受供需紧平衡、政策利好推动价格重心持续上移，考虑远期 产能释放预期与主力合约净空，多空博弈加剧价格波动，市场分化特征显 著。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 观点：短期区 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to operate at a low level [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Steel Production and Inventory - The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons to 1.7878 million tons, hot-rolled coil output decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons, and the total output of five major steel products decreased by 227,300 tons to 8.0622 million tons [3] - The total inventory of rebar decreased by 243,100 tons to 4.795 million tons, hot-rolled coil total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 335,000 tons to 13.3209 million tons [3] Steel Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 138,900 tons to 2.0309 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 244,500 tons to 8.3972 million tons [3] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, setting a new record. In the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of automobiles both exceeded 31 million, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were both close to 15 million, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3] Real Estate Transaction Area - In November 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 6.7731 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%; the total transaction area of second-hand housing was 9.1397 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% [3] Reasons for Steel Price Decline - The apparent demand in the weekly data decreased significantly, reaching a low level in recent years, and construction at construction sites will be further affected after the temperature drops in many places [3] - The double cokes at the raw material end continued to decline significantly, dragging down the finished products [3] - It is gradually entering the winter storage period, and traders have a weak willingness to store for winter and a strong wait-and-see attitude [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term macro - drive is in place but overall exceeds expectations. The Fed's rate - cut intensity meets expectations, and Powell's speech is dovish. The statement of immediate "balance - sheet expansion" and the weak labor reality guide further rate cuts. Domestically, focus on the incremental policy of the Politburo meeting in the short term. The inventory structure of domestic finished products improves, but iron ore demand declines. The restriction of port spot trade pushes up the spot price, and the basis of the futures price converges to the spot price. It is expected that hot - metal production will decline, and inventory will tend to accumulate. With weak real - world drivers but strong macro - expectations, the price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][4] - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (05) will operate in the range of 750 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the price of the overseas contract (FE01) of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week. Shipments from Australia increased slightly, those from Brazil decreased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream mines increased substantially. Considering seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, the peak of overseas ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline month - on - month [3] Demand - Domestic demand is accelerating its decline due to insufficient terminal demand, increased annual maintenance of steel mills, seasonal decline in demand, and the blast - furnace profitability rate being at a three - year low. The weak reality will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel research, 12 new blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance this period, and 6 blast furnaces resumed production. Blast - furnace maintenance mainly occurred in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, etc., due to the decline in downstream demand. Blast - furnace resumptions occurred in Hebei and the Northeast regions after the end of maintenance and decent downstream demand [4] Inventory - The imported inventory of steel mills remains at a low level and increased slightly this period. High prices have curbed restocking demand, and the inventory of steel mills mainly purchasing port - spot has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar - denominated goods by steel mills will fully start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the high arrival volume and the decline in the high - level port - clearance volume. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate, while lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in a range, focusing on the game between the mining end and funds [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui will also stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] - The view is that it will operate in an oscillatory and consolidating manner, and the later focuses are on macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Lithium Carbonate - The activity of the lithium carbonate futures market increased significantly yesterday. The contract LC2605 rose in intraday fluctuations, closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 2.56% or 2,400 yuan/ton. The price returned to the range above 95,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract expanded significantly, reflecting that the market's long - term expectation for lithium carbonate is stronger than the current fundamentals of the spot end. The trading and positions of the main contract increased simultaneously, and the game between long and short funds was intense [1] - On the supply side, the short - term increase is limited, and cost support is emerging. The resumption of production of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted. The theoretical delivery profits of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lepidolite are negative. On the demand side, rigid demand provides a bottom, and policy expectations boost long - term confidence. The weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly but inventory was destocked; the weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. The overall operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is expected to remain high. The expectation of the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the support of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in many places for new energy vehicles and solid - state batteries boost long - term demand resilience. The overall inventory continues to be destocked, and the inventory of downstream links has increased slightly, with terminal replenishment mainly based on rigid demand [2] - The Fed's interest rate cut improves the global demand outlook, and Qinghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" for a 100 - billion - level salt lake industry cluster provides support for the long - term supply guarantee and demand recovery of lithium carbonate. However, the resumption of production of lithium mines is slow, and short - term supply - demand balance dominates the market. The game between long and short funds is intense, and futures prices fluctuate more [3] - The view is that it will fluctuate in a short - term range, focusing on the resumption of lithium mines and the game between funds. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of lithium mines, downstream demand release, and the game between funds and market sentiment [3]

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：美联储如期降息 库存小幅去化 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 观点：预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变 ...

晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化有限 钢价自低位反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 逻辑：美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息 25 个基点，将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储年内的第三次 降息，幅度均为 25 个基点。全球钢铁生产格局正在发生深刻变化，中日 韩因消费见顶，产量正处于下行区间，印度、东南亚、非洲和中东地区生 产呈现快速增长态势。预计 2026 年全球钢铁总供应微幅增长，增幅或在 ...

逻辑：本周在市场氛围本就偏弱的情况下，蒙煤策克口岸压力测试超 预期完成，加剧了市场偏悲观情绪，煤焦期价重心再度下移。现货市场总 体偏弱，进口蒙煤价格领跌，国内煤价跟跌；钢厂对焦炭价格完成首轮调 降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤高通关预期强化 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound, with a continued atmosphere of long - short game, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures LC2605 rose and then fell, closing at 92,800 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading and positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued but with reduced heat. The term structure shows "near - weak and far - strong" differentiation [1] - On the supply side, the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted, with limited short - term supply increase. As of December 9, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1,165 US dollars/ton, and the production and theoretical delivery profits of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica are negative, which may support the bottom of the lithium carbonate futures price [2] - On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. It is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate operating rate in December will remain above 70%. The market expects the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy to continue, and the overall inventory continues to decline, with downstream inventory rising slightly and terminal replenishment mainly for rigid demand [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium mine approval process, but the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increase is limited. The positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry's investment rating is "Weak operation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a state of weak operation due to weak demand and a decline in raw material prices [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog - **Jilin Province's winter storage situation**: The winter storage sentiment for construction steel in Jilin Province has significantly cooled. The total planned winter storage volume of sample enterprises in 2026 is 12.8 tons, a decrease of 4.6 tons or 26.4% compared to the actual winter storage volume in 2025. Market participation willingness has declined overall, especially among small and medium-sized traders [1] - **Heilongjiang Province's winter storage situation**: The winter storage situation in Heilongjiang is worse than last year. The total planned winter storage volume of 10 sample enterprises in 2025 is 8.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. Most traders are bearish on the future market this winter [1] - **Steel price performance**: The finished steel prices fell again yesterday, showing three consecutive negative days. Both varieties gave back previous gains and reached new recent lows. Rebar prices returned above 3,000, and hot - rolled coil prices returned above 3,200. Weak downstream demand and cold weather put pressure on prices. The recent decline in coking coal prices has further dragged down steel prices [1]

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季施压上方空间 关注美联储会议 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位调整。宏观上就业市场数据好于预期，凸显出在美联储 预期降息之前劳动力市场仍有韧性，决策者可能会强调通胀风险，这可能制约进 一步的宽 ...