Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests treating the market by short - selling on rebounds [3] - The steel market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds based on the current situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Industry Operating Data - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 percentage points The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [2] Home Appliance Industry Sales Data - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the offline retail sales of color TVs in May increased by 34.2% year - on - year; among various white - goods categories in May, the offline retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 29.3%, 8.6%, 28.7%, 41.0%, and 38.7% year - on - year respectively [2] Steel Market Analysis - Last week, the steel price moved sideways The good communication between China and the US at the macro - level had a certain impact on the price, but the driving force was insufficient The market mainly traded based on the industry fundamentals The steel fundamentals announced by the Steel Union last week were normal without many highlights Overall, the steel still faced a situation of strong supply and weak demand The steel mill operating rate and pig iron output remained at a high level, but the downstream had entered the off - season High temperature, rainfall, and the high - school entrance examination and college entrance examination affected construction, and there were no signs of short - term improvement in the downstream, and there was even room for further decline [2] Later Focus - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand situations [3]

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡。数据显示，美国本月消费者信心指数跃升至 60.5，高于市场预期。本周美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要， 关注海外宏观对市场情绪的指引。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：旺季尾声 关注本周宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动 ...

煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观扰动加剧 短期偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 逻辑：消息面：据央视新闻，当地时间 6 月 12 日，美国商务部宣布将自 6 月 23 日起对多 种钢制家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期黑色系市场交投重心仍以终端需求悲观预期为主，成材表需呈现出淡季特征，碳元素 不断让利于铁元素(碳元素现货端并未出现提涨，焦炭甚至提降第三轮)，高炉利润并未因成材 价格下跌而出现利润大幅压缩反而有所扩大，短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]

煤焦：需求见顶 盘面反弹表现乏力 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 近期市场关于供应收缩的消息不断，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋 势，但尚未出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。本周煤矿端精 煤库存 486 万吨，环比增加 5.3 万吨，增幅略有放缓，但库存水平仍处于 绝对高位。煤焦需求延续小幅回落走势，但下降速度偏缓，本周钢厂日均 铁水产量降至 241.61 万吨，环比上周减少 0.19 万吨，同比去年增加 2.3 万吨。钢厂整体盈利率小幅收窄，引导开工下滑，总体上对冲了煤矿近期 的减产行为，基本面上给与煤价反弹的驱动仍显不足。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期市场情绪回暖，对煤价有一定支撑。但基本面上，煤焦供 需均高位小幅下滑，库存压力仍较大，价格反弹缺乏动力。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62 ...

晨报 成材 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：仍以反弹试空对待。 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量下降 10.89 万吨至 207.57 万 吨，热卷产量下降 4.1 万吨至 324.65 万吨，五大材总产量下降 21.53 万 吨至 858.85 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 12.4 万吨至 558.08 万吨，热卷总 库存上升 4.77 万吨至 345.41 万吨，五大材总库存下降 9.25 万吨至 1354.56 万吨；螺纹钢表需下降 9.06 万吨至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [4] Core View of the Report - In the short term, macro disturbances weaken, trading focus returns to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand shows a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expected to expand. It is predicted that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking obvious upward drivers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the trading focus of the black - series market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand. The apparent demand of finished products shows off - season characteristics. Carbon elements continue to give benefits to iron elements. The profit of blast furnaces has not been significantly compressed due to the decline in finished product prices but has instead expanded. The valley - electricity of short - process steelmaking is in a large - scale loss, and the demand for iron ore remains resilient [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly this period. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with a significant increase in Australian shipments, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. Coupled with the fiscal - year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current level of steel mill profitability is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend at a high level, but the downward slope will be relatively gentle, and high demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestic demand is still relatively high, and port inventories are continuously decreasing in the short term. As the arrival volume increases, it is expected that port inventories will accumulate slightly or remain relatively stable in the later stage. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the expectation of restocking is weak [3]

晨报 成材 成材：情绪回暖 小幅反弹 逻辑：当地时间 6 月 9 日至 10 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副 总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸 易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦 诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一 致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均 钢坯含税成本 2832 元/吨，周环比下调 30 元/吨，与 6 月 11 日当前普方 坯出厂价格 2920 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 88 元/吨，周环比增加 60 元/ 吨。6 月 11 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税累计上调 20，报 2920 元/ 吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 成材昨日反弹，中美会谈达成原则一致，市场情绪小幅回升。但目前 已进入需求淡季，短期来看下游难有有效改善，且仍有进一步下降空间。 根据当前情况看，仍建议反弹逢高试空。 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-626 ...