Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

晨报 成材 成材：美再提高钢铁关税 钢价承压运行 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 3 日 逻辑：美国总统特朗普当地时间 30 日表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至 50%，该决定从自 6 月 4 日起生效。 特朗普 2 月 10 日签署行 政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收 25%的关税。当地时间 3 月 12 日，特朗普对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收 25%关税的举措正式 生效。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材上周偏弱运行，价格向下探底，主要受到基本面供强需弱影响。 上周五晚，美将钢铁关税提高到 50%，进一步加剧了需求端的紧缩态势。 时间已逐步进入需求淡季，短期看终端难有有效改善。建议震荡偏空对待。 观点：仍以反弹试空对待。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z00182 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Supply and demand both declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remained high, and a short - term volatile and weak trend was maintained [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its volatile and weak trend, with prices further declining. On the spot side, the second round of coking price cuts was fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 100 - 110 yuan/ton in two rounds; the spot price of coking coal declined under pressure, and the self - pick - up quotation of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal at the port dropped to 918 yuan/ton [3] Data on Production and Inventory - Last week, for 523 coking coal sample mines, the daily output of raw coal was 1.918 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared to the previous week, and production declined for two consecutive weeks. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.411 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.051 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.987 million tons [3] Demand Situation - Last week, the demand for coking coal and coke continued to decline slightly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mills dropped to 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 60,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines, and coal prices remained weak [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For the steel product industry, it is recommended to be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [1] - For the raw material industry, it is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel product market is currently affected by high supply and weak demand, with prices continuously bottoming out. As it enters the seasonal demand off - season, it is difficult for demand to improve substantially in the short term [1] Summary by Related Content Steel Product - As of May 29, 2025, 7 Shandong steel mills have adjusted their annual crude steel production to 55.63 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year [1] - This week, the supply of Mysteel's five major steel products was 8.8085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,100 tons, an increase of 1% [1] - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 329,400 tons. Among them, the social inventory was 9.3254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 280,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 4.3306 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,200 tons [1] - After continuous decline, the steel product price rebounded slightly yesterday. The weekly inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand increased slightly [1] Raw Material - The raw material market is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1]

晨报 煤焦 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 数据方面，本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 191.8 万吨， 环比减少 1.8 万吨，产量连续两周下滑。据了解山西减产煤矿增加，吕梁 因倒换工作面等井下原因减产煤矿增多，晋中、临汾等地煤矿因库存及亏 损压力减产煤矿增加，产量受到抑制。不过当前煤矿端库存压力尚未减轻， 本周煤矿端原煤库存增至 641.1 万吨，同比增加 305.1 万吨；精煤库存 473 万吨，同比增加 198.7 万吨。 原材料：程 鹏 煤焦：供需高位回落 盘面弱势未改 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 29 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货市场延续震荡偏弱走势，价格进一步下探。现 货端，焦价第 2 轮调降全面落地，2 轮累计跌幅 100-110 元/吨；焦煤现 货价格承压下行，蒙 5#精煤口岸自提报价降至 920 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：焦价 2 轮调降落地 盘面弱势未改 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 数据方面，本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 191.8 万吨， 环比减少 1.8 万吨，产量连续两周下滑。据了解山西减产煤 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term carbon element decline causes the collapse of finished product cost support, the expected export resilience weakens, and the overall valuation of the black - series drags down the iron ore price. Demand has basically peaked but with a low slope, supply is continuously rising but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term but still be affected by the sector [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic Yesterday, the black - series declined collectively, and iron ore started to make up for the decline. The reasons include the continuous weakness of carbon element prices leading to the collapse of finished product cost support, the lower - than - expected export rush during the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs and the entry of terminal demand into the off - season causing the overall valuation of the black - series to decline, and the high - level decline of hot metal weakening the spot support, shrinking the iron ore basis, and the simultaneous downward movement of futures and spot [3] Supply The current overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipment increased, Brazil's decreased, and non - mainstream shipments declined after a pulse. The overall year - on - year decline of overseas ore shipments is narrowing. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [3] Demand Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. Hot metal has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.17) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export - end expectation is revised upward. It is expected that hot metal will show an overall high - level decline trend with a low downward slope, and the support for prices will weaken marginally [3] Inventory The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：去库节奏放缓 铝价区间运行 矿端扰动给到成本端支撑，不过情绪暂得到释放，步入淡季库存面临 积累压力，加工转淡和终端抢出口效应并存，短期铝价预计区间运行。 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 28 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑 ...

铁矿石：碳元素引领跌势 矿石价格相对强势 晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：本期外矿发运环比回落，澳洲发运回升而巴西发运回落，非主流脉冲后下滑， 外矿发运整体同比降幅趋于收窄。6 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿山预计发运保持平稳回升态 势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 需求方面：国内需求整体处于历史同期高位区，铁水连续两周回落，本期 243.6（-1.17）， 下降幅度有所扩大，短期需求端见顶，但当前钢厂盈利率水平较高且出口端预期上修，预期铁 水将整体高位回落走势但下行斜率偏低，短期对价格影响程度较小。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：当前国内需求水平仍相对偏高，整体预期 6 月份上旬港口库存水平将保持相对 平稳或偏向于去化态势，但整体评估来看，库存整体处于高位，库存高位阶段性去库难以提供 向上驱动。 原材料： 冯艳成 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is to treat the market with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests still taking a short - selling approach on rebounds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Cost and Profit - On May 26, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was - 123 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [2] Automobile Sales - In April, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold a total of 1.571 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. They accounted for 70.7% of the total passenger car sales, with the sales share increasing by 7.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Shipbuilding Orders - In April, the global new orders were 111 ships, totaling 4,532,855 CGT. Chinese shipyards received 55 ships, totaling 2,601,584 CGT, accounting for 57.39% of the global new ship orders [2] Market Situation - The finished product market continued its downward trend yesterday. The main contract of rebar once fell below 3,000, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil fell below the previous low. The market had few bright spots, and the trade disputes between Europe and the United States intensified the pessimistic sentiment in the macro - market. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is good, and the enterprise operating rate and molten iron output are at relatively high levels, but downstream demand has not improved significantly and is likely to decline after entering the seasonal off - season, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [2] Suggestion - The industry should be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market, and still take a short - selling approach on rebounds [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3]