1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support to prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term and fluctuate. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the market sentiment is affected by repeated overseas macro - interference events. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Disruption**: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 million tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic sentiment and low winter storage, resulting in a downward - shifting price center [4]. **铝锭** - **Macro Environment**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and again in December. The U.S. federal government shutdown has hindered the release of key macro - economic data, increasing market uncertainty about the U.S. economy [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to increase aluminum ingot production. Domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, with a 400,000 - ton reduction in Shanxi due to the rainy season, but the supply surplus pressure remains. The overall alumina industry still has a profit, and the spot market is in a state of loose supply. The average开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year, and different sub - industries face various challenges [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is running at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing, mainly to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [2] - On October 18th, He Lifeng held a video call with the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] Production Data - Last week, 13 provincial steel mills had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 3 maintenance lines, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week, and 8 resumption lines, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week. The production affected by maintenance was 215,300 tons last week and is expected to be 63,800 tons this week [2] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills last week was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 65,900 tons year - on - year [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide last week was 53.2%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.32 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.85%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2] Price and Market Analysis - The finished steel prices fluctuated and declined last week, hitting new lows. Rebar was close to 3,000, and hot - rolled coil once fell below 3,200. After the holiday, the fundamentals of steel changed little, and the weak downstream situation improved limitedly. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak. Sino - US trade frictions affected market sentiment and caused the steel price to decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily affected by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Performance - Last week, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, with coking coal having a larger increase. The night session on Friday continued the strong trend. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price hikes [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal was 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight inventory increase, but the current inventory level at mines is low due to downstream pre - holiday restocking [2] - The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising monthly. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons [2] - **Demand Side** - Last week, the profitability of coke enterprises shrank, which supported their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 74% [2] - The inventory pressure of downstream steel products still exists, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Affected by rising raw material prices and falling finished product prices, steel mills' profits were in the red. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate of steel mills was about 55% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is relatively weak, and short - term attention should be paid to domestic macro - policy increments. The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range, and the strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - The black - series carbon elements were relatively strong yesterday, the price of finished products stabilized, while the iron ore price was relatively weak, and the sentiment of the black - series market remained weak [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipment decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia decreased significantly, while that in Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. The daily average pig iron output in this period was 2.4095 million tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August. High demand still supported the iron ore price to some extent [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill decreased slightly month - on - month, and the daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills decreased due to production cuts. Steel mills were about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The port inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month due to the continuous increase in arrival volume [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][3] - The fundamentals of aluminum ingots are operating steadily, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, showing a relatively strong trend [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region, the shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown period [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingot - In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to bring a further increase in aluminum ingot production, with the daily average output expected to rise further. The spot price of alumina maintains a weak operation, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline month - on - month [3] - This week, the average operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has rebounded to 58.4%, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the second half of the month and approach the annual high. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises is stable at 68%, but it is expected to gradually decline. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remains at 64% and is expected to continue its weak and stable performance in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry has slightly decreased to 53.5% and is expected to be stable but weak in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.3% but may decline due to weak terminal demand. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises has slightly decreased to 58.6% and is expected to continue to decline slightly in October [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons compared with Monday and a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Overseas macro - interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The later focus is on the trends of inventory and consumption. The later focus also includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at mines, and the release of consumption [4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1][2][3][4] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily influenced by macro - factor changes, so prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded fluctuately, with coking coal leading the gains, and the night - session continued the strong trend. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions plan to raise coke prices [3] Supply - side Situation - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. This week, the daily average output of clean coal is 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight increase in inventory, and the current inventory level at the mine end is low due to pre - holiday downstream restocking. The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, about 46 million tons of coal were imported, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising month by month. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the profitability of coke enterprises has shrunk, which supports their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. Downstream steel still has inventory pressure, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Some steel enterprises in certain regions announced that due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in finished product prices, steel mill profits are in the red. This week, the daily average pig iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate is about 55% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Production Data**: According to weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,500 tons to 3.2184 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 63,600 tons to 8.5695 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 185,900 tons to 6.4105 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 62,900 tons to 4.1919 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 184,600 tons to 15.8226 million tons [1]. - **Apparent Demand Data**: Rebar apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons to 3.1555 million tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.3996 million tons to 8.7541 million tons [1]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 40%, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.48%. It is expected that some section steel mills in Tangshan will resume production on October 17th, and the operating rate will rise significantly [1]. - **Sales Policy**: On October 16th, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Yangchun New Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Yueyufeng Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. issued a notice on price - limited sales [1]. - **Market Situation**: After reaching a new low yesterday, steel products rebounded slightly. In terms of variety fundamentals, rebar's apparent demand increased rapidly and there was a slight inventory reduction, so its fundamentals were stronger than that of hot - rolled coil. Overall, the demand for steel products remained sluggish, with no improvement in the real estate market and a slowdown in the automotive and home appliance industries. Recent Sino - US trade frictions also led to a negative macro - market. Under the resonance of macro and fundamentals, steel prices were running weakly [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Steel prices are running at a low level, facing short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The industry fundamentals remain sluggish, and steel prices are weakly operating under the resonance of macro and fundamentals [1][3] Group 3 - Summary based on related content: - Policy and international situation: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that this is not the right way to get along with China. Hebei Province issues measures to support key industries' environmental performance, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production [2] - Cost and profit: The average hot - metal cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills is 2247 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost is 3006 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the billet price on October 15th, the average loss per ton of steel mills is 86 yuan [2] - Real estate data: The total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to September 2025 are 1055.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In September, the sales are 113.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1.7% [2] - Engineering machinery data: In September, the monthly operating rate of China's main engineering machinery products is 55.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.08 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating rate of excavators is 54.5% [2] - Market performance: Steel prices continued to hit new lows yesterday. Rebar is approaching 3000, and hot - rolled coils are approaching 3200 [2]