Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining news [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - **Production suspension situation**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' suspension time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with resumption expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension [1][2]. - **Real estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline and reached a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Macro - situation**: After US President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, market confidence in the Fed wavered. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market currently expects an over 87% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Demand situation**: The demand side is the core concern. Some enterprises have started to stock up for the peak - season orders. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors showed varying degrees of change, with some increasing and the regenerative aluminum operating rate slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0% [2]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons to 463,500 tons on Tuesday. The traditional off - season led to weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation. Holders were not optimistic about the future premium and actively sold, suppressing the spot premium [2]. - **Market outlook**: The price is expected to run at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upside [3]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mining resumption, and consumption release [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for monetary and fiscal policies in the later period. The price this week will be more affected by the macro - situation. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, the demand side remains resilient, and the overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The short - term price will mainly follow the market trend. The price will fluctuate strongly this week, with the main contract of Dalian Iron (2601 contract) in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black - series traded with strong expectations and weak reality, and the overall price rose due to macro - sentiment. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has suppressed the valuation level of the black - series, and the carbon element's disk valuation has returned. The high - profit of blast furnaces has declined from the high level, limiting the space for hot - metal increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the disk, and the price generally follows the sector trend [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but still remain at a relatively high level. Among them, the shipments of Rio Tinto and FMG mines in Australia have significantly increased, the shipments from Brazil have dropped significantly after reaching a historical high, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines have also dropped from the high level. The arrival volume is at a medium - to - high level, and overall, the supply - side pressure has weakened [3]. Demand - The domestic daily average hot - metal volume has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot - metal output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from the high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously decreased. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot - metal can remain at a high level and the military - parade production - restriction trends in North China [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased week - on - week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of hot - metal production from the high level, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]

Group 1 - No industry investment rating is provided Group 2 - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are rising, market sentiment is still fluctuating. Fundamentally, raw material demand remains good for now but shows a tendency of short - term phased decline. Coal and coke prices are more volatile [3] Group 3 Market Logic - On August 25, the price of coking coal fluctuated strongly. As the September 3 parade approaches, the social impact of safety accidents should be noted. Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks led the market to bet on a September rate cut, driving up commodity prices. Some high - priced coal resources at mines had weak sales, and prices were stable. Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase [2] Environmental Production Restrictions - Tangshan steel mills received an oral notice of environmental production restrictions. From August 25 to September 3, sintering machines are to be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 to September 3, blast furnaces are to be restricted by 40%. Henan coke enterprises are to implement voluntary production restrictions from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20% - 35% [2] Fundamentals - Last week, Shanxi coal mines continued to increase production slowly, with the daily average output of clean coal reaching 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized inventory replenishment ended, mines started to accumulate inventory again. Short - term coal mine production is expected to continue to resume, and pithead inventory will rise due to weakening demand. Last week, steel mills maintained high - level operations, with the daily average hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production restrictions this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of finished steel products fluctuates greatly and runs weakly in a volatile manner. Whether the adjustment of real estate policies can drive the price up needs further observation, and the recent steel price trend is greatly affected by raw materials [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production and Inventory - In mid - August, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.115 million tons, with a daily output increase of 2.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory was 15.67 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons or 4.0% compared with the previous ten - day period [3]. Real Estate Policy - On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust local real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax [3]. Shipbuilding Orders - From August 18th to August 24th, global shipyards received 16 + 4 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 8 + 3 new ship orders, South Korean shipyards received 6 new ship orders, and US shipyards also got relevant new ship orders [3]. Price Movement Reasons - The price of finished steel products rebounded yesterday. On one hand, the large increase in coking coal prices drove the follow - up rise of finished products. On the other hand, the optimization and adjustment of real estate policies in Shanghai led to fluctuations in the A - share real estate sector, indirectly driving up the price of finished products [3]. Later Focus - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term. However, the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [9][10]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - Copper: The futures price of CU2509 on August 22, 2025, was 78,690 yuan, down 370 yuan (- 0.47%) from August 15. The spot price was 78,825 yuan, down 345 yuan (- 0.44%) [7]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 was 20,630 yuan, down 140 yuan (- 0.67%). The spot price was 20,750 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.34%) [7]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 was 22,275 yuan, down 230 yuan (- 1.02%). The spot price was 21,930 yuan, down 734 yuan (- 3.24%) [7]. - Tin: The futures price of SN2509 was 265,930 yuan, down 890 yuan (- 0.33%). The spot price remained unchanged at 266,250 yuan [7]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 was 119,610 yuan, down 990 yuan (- 0.82%). The spot price was 120,890 yuan, down 930 yuan (- 0.76%) [7]. 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 - **Aluminum**: - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a range. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and China's policy to boost domestic demand created a positive atmosphere, which is expected to boost aluminum consumption. Supply slightly increased with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. Some sub - sectors showed improvement, while the recycled aluminum operating rate declined slightly. As of August 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [9]. - Viewpoint: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term, but the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside [9][10]. - Later Attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11]. - **Zinc**: - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillated around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 57.42%. Zinc ingot inventory increased due to some enterprises' stock - replenishment behavior. As of August 25, domestic zinc inventory increased [12]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Later Attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [12]. - **Tin**: - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow due to the rainy season, and African imports also declined. Supply shortage supported tin prices. The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low due to raw material shortages. Downstream demand was average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [13]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. - Later Attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [13]. 3.3 03品种数据 - **Aluminum** - **Bauxite**: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - grade was 570 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The average import price was 74.74 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars week - on - week [17]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 416.77 tons, down 92.85 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 400.53 tons, down 13.42 tons [21]. - **Alumina**: - Price and Cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan week - on - week. The full cost was 2891.7 yuan/ton, up 6.9 yuan. The profit in Shanxi was 269.57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - Cost and Price Difference: The total cost was 16718.55 yuan/ton, down 19.49 yuan week - on - week. The regional price difference (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26]. - Downstream Processing: The operating rates of aluminum cable, foil, plate - strip, and others showed different changes. For example, the aluminum cable operating rate was 63.6, up 1 percentage point week - on - week [31]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 81,900 tons, down 2900 tons week - on - week. The social inventory was 616,000 tons, up 9000 tons [37]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum showed different changes in different periods. For example, the basis of the current month was 60 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan week - on - week [43]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week [50]. - **Zinc** - **Zinc Concentrate**: - Price and Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton [55]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The import loss was 876.68 yuan/ton, up 487.84 yuan week - on - week [58]. - **Refined Zinc**: - Inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, up 3100 tons week - on - week [61]. - **Galvanizing**: - Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory: The production was 332,890 tons, down 14,155 tons week - on - week. The operating rate was 57.42%, down 1.12 percentage points [64]. - **Zinc Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the month - to - month spread of Shanghai zinc showed different changes [67][68]. - **Tin** - **Refined Tin**: - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi was 0.289 tons, up 0.002 tons week - on - week. The combined operating rate was 59.64%, up 0.41 percentage points [74]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7491 tons, down 301 tons week - on - week. The Chinese regional social inventory was 9278 tons, down 802 tons [77]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee and Import Profit - loss**: The tin concentrate processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The import profit - loss was 10,126.07 yuan/ton, down 3805.14 yuan week - on - week [79][80]. - **Spot Average Price**: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week [84].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存持续积累 关注下游旺季预期 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间运行。宏观上美联储降息预期升温及中国政策加码 内需释放，整体营造利多氛围，有望提振铝消费前景。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The price will be more affected by the macro situation next week and is expected to run with an upward bias in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian Iron Ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - Last week, the macro - level disturbances weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, and the market trading focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of threaded steel on the finished product side depressed the valuation level of the black series. The high - profit of blast furnaces at a high level declined, limiting the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply also inhibited the market, and the price generally followed the sector trend [2] 3.2 Supply - The recovery of foreign ore shipments exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments were stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support on the supply side weakens [2] 3.3 Demand - The average daily molten iron output in China has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current average daily molten iron output at 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices weakens marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron can maintain a high level and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] 3.4 Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has decreased month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of molten iron from a high level, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are rising, and market sentiment remains volatile. Fundamentally, raw material demand remains good for the time being but shows a tendency for a temporary decline. Coal and coke prices are experiencing increased volatility [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content Market Conditions - Last week, coking coal prices generally fluctuated weakly but rebounded strongly during the night session on Friday. A coal mine accident in Fujian and dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell led to increased bets on a September interest rate cut, causing a general rise in commodities. Spot prices of some high - priced coal resources at mines were stable due to weak sales. Coke completed its 7th round of price hikes last week [3] Environmental Production Restrictions - Tangshan steel mills received an oral notice of environmental production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines are to be restricted by 30%. Some steel mills reported that from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40%. Continued attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts [3] Fundamentals - Last week, Shanxi coal mines continued to increase production, but the overall increase was slow. This week, the daily average output of clean coal from mines was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized replenishment ended, mine inventories started to accumulate again. In the short term, coal mines are expected to continue the resumption of production, and pithead inventories will continue to rise due to weakening demand. On the demand side, steel mills maintained good开工 last week, with the daily average hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons. Attention should be paid to the on - site implementation of steel mills this week [4]