Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel products are expected to move in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity and operate weakly. The aluminum ingot price is expected to move in a range in the short - term, with attention to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [2][5]. 3) Summary by Content Steel Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown for maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province are also shutting down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity has continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The market is expected to operate in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity [4]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was strong. The US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. After the non - farm data exceeded expectations, the market expects a 93% probability of unchanged interest rates in July, still expecting two rate cuts this year starting from September [3]. - As of last Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [4]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors face different challenges [4]. - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [4]. - The initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season have emerged. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The aluminum price is expected to move in a range in the short - term [5].

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 7 日 逻辑：上周，安全生产月结束，叠加督导组完成为期一个月的进驻巡 视，部分区域煤矿逐步复产，影响市场多头情绪降温，但周二会议提出反 内卷和去产能，虽然主要针对的产业是电动汽车和光伏，但因煤炭市场供 给较为过剩，再次对市场情绪形成扰动，促使煤焦价格震荡加剧。后续关 注具体政策措施的落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需压力稍有缓解 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests treating the steel price rebound as an opportunity to try short-selling [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production and Inventory - In late June, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.129 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.45 million tons, a 4.7% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 1.0% increase from the same period last month [1] Steel Mill Operating Rates - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons from the previous week [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 51.05%, a decrease of 3.44 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 2.03 percentage points from the same period last year; the average operating rate was 66.87%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Steel Price Rebound Factors - The steel price rebounded from a low level due to an anti - involution storm in the market last week and some steel mills in Tangshan receiving production restriction notices. The positive candlestick on Wednesday brought some changes to the sluggish market [1] Impact on Rebound - Fundamentally, the operating rate declined and the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly. Macroscopically, there will be an important domestic meeting at the end of this month, and the market atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period. However, it is currently the off - season for demand, and high temperatures and rainfall in many places exist, which will drag down the height of the rebound to a certain extent [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range of consolidation [2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2]. - Finished steel prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down, and winter storage was lackluster, providing little price support [2]. Aluminum - On July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [2]. - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.82 million tons/year, the operating capacity is 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the alumina inventory in enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - This week, the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% due to factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand [2]. - The better - than - expected US employment data strengthened the expectation that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates early. The market now expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year, lower than the previous expectation of about 66 basis points [1]. - The current off - season inventory accumulation has emerged, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing has increased, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to move within a range [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - On the macro - level, the weaker - than - expected US ADP data has raised hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than the market expected, and the market is waiting for the upcoming non - farm payrolls report [1] - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina enterprise in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a 9.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - As of July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. In July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, the arrival of goods may continue. Coupled with the weak downstream consumption and slow pick - up, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase steadily in the early July [2] - Currently, the domestic bauxite price has not been significantly adjusted, and the long - term contract price of imported bauxite in the third quarter is expected to be mainly stable and declining. The spot trading of imported bauxite is light, and the price is stable [2] - The current off - season inventory accumulation has just begun, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The macro - risk pricing has increased, and attention should be paid to the domestic policy promotion. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be mainly strong within the range, and then the inventory - consumption trend should be concerned [3]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The change in coal mine production rhythm disturbs market sentiment. Currently, coal mine inventories remain at a high level, and coal price rebounds are hindered. Continuously monitor the resumption of coal mine production [3] Group 3 Logic - Yesterday, news of coal mine resumption cooled bullish sentiment, and coal and coke futures prices continued to decline in a volatile manner. On the spot side, after the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the market remained stable. The coking coal market generally maintained a weak and stable operation [2] Market - According to institutional research, some previously shut - down coal mines in the Shanxi region have plans to resume production. A large shut - down mine in Xiangning is going through the resumption acceptance procedures, with an expected resumption time of July 3 - 4. The mine was shut down for rectification due to safety reasons on June 1, and as of now, it has been shut down for 30 days, affecting daily raw coal production by 620,000 tons. In addition, the current round of ecological and environmental protection supervision teams has completed their inspection in Shanxi, and shut - down coal mines will gradually resume production [2] Data - Last week, the daily output of raw coal from coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons. Raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179,000 tons; clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 361,000 tons [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The prices of finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and the prices of aluminum ingots are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3][4] - For finished products, it is necessary to focus on macro - policies and downstream demand; for aluminum ingots, it is necessary to focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, resuming around the 11th - 16th of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, down 40.3% month - on - month and up 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished product prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on July 2. The market is watching US employment data to judge the Fed's policy direction [2] - As of June 30, the theoretical profit of the alumina industry was 248 yuan/ton, but the capacity using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan was in a loss state, and cost support is expected to gradually emerge. Alumina enterprise inventory increased by 81,000 tons [3] - In June, the aluminum processing PMI was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, down 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year [3] - As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 468,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to increased supply in late June and high prices suppressing consumption, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in early July [3] - Overseas macro instability persists. Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but there are signs of inventory accumulation. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in ore prices, and the off - season demand limits the upside space [4]

晨报 成材 成材：唐山限产消息带动钢价反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 2 日 逻辑：2025 年上半年，各地发行地方债规模约 54902 亿元，与 2024 年同期的 34928 亿元相比，增长约 57.2%。针对"唐山 7 月 4 日-15 日将 减排限产"的消息。Mysteel 对唐山全流程钢企进行了跟踪调研，厂家表 示已接到通知，受空气质量影响，基本在延续 6 月下旬的管控，现烧结限 产 30%，部分高炉未满产状态，整体对产量影响有限。6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总计 310.82 万平方米， 环比增长 50.4%，同比下降 24.3%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日午后震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, the market may focus on strong reality. With weakened foreign ore shipments, high short - term arrivals leading to inventory accumulation, and relatively high demand, the overall inventory accumulation pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments. After the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines in June, they will enter the maintenance period in early July, and overall foreign ore shipments will enter a phased decline cycle. However, due to the significant increase in shipments since late May, the arrival volume is expected to remain high in the short term, meaning near - end supply pressure remains, while the expected increase pressure in the far - month eases, which is conducive to a far - month rebound [3] Demand - China's daily average hot metal output has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, showing strong demand for iron ore and boosting the valuation level of the futures market. The current daily average hot metal output is 242.29 (month - on - month + 0.11). With a high profitability rate of steel mills, considerable blast furnace profits, comprehensive deep losses in the short - process steelmaking, and a significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will remain strong, and high demand will support the price [3] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has declined month - on - month, and the low - inventory management model continues. Daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills in the Northeast. As the month - on - month increase in arrival volume is greater than that in the port clearance volume, port inventory has increased slightly this period. It is expected that inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but due to high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3] Price - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is from 710 yuan/ton to 740 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE08 contract is from 93 to 97 US dollars/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪、下游开工、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行创近期新低，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 -海外市场担心美国政府赤字及贸易协议不确定性，国内利好政策促进消费 [3] -截至6月30日，氧化铝行业理论利润248元/吨，山西、河南部分产能理论已亏损，成本支撑将体现 [4] -6月铝加工行业PMI综合指数40.1%，跌至荣枯线以下，环比降9.7个百分点，同比降1.5% [4] -上周铝线缆龙头企业开工下降，国网订单匹配慢，采购节奏放缓 [4] -6月30日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存46.8万吨，较上周四增0.5万吨，环比上周一增0.4万吨 [4] -7月上旬国内铝锭库存预计稳中小增，关注到货和累库持续性 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，低库存支撑铝价但库存走势反复，几内亚雨季影响矿石价格，需求端淡季限制上行空间 [5]