Report Summary 1. Core View - In April, the market will face the dual tests of "policy verification" and "overseas risks". The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and the direction choice needs to wait for the key signals to land. The market showed a volatile characteristic of "two steps forward and one step back" in March due to the tug - of - war between economic recovery and overseas disturbances. Investors should closely track macro - economic data, Fed policy trends, and domestic industrial policy implementation effects in April [21][22] 2. Key Points by Section (1) Market Quotes Review - Last week, IC2504 closed at 5819.6 points, up 19.8 points or 0.34% from the previous month. IM2504 closed at 6184.0 points, up 4.4 points or 0.07% from the previous month [3] (2) Economic Data - In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing an accelerated expansion pace. The composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall accelerated expansion of corporate production and business activities [6][8][9] (3) Valuation Analysis - As of March 2, the PE of the CSI 500 index was 28.4 times, with a percentile of 63.41%, and the PB was 1.85 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 index was 37.89 times, with a percentile of 46.97%, and the PB was 2.11 times [13] (4) Other Data - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20] (5) Overseas Environment - The implementation of US tariff policies and rising debt pressure are intensifying the volatility of US stocks. In March, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) soared to 35, and the panic sentiment has spread to the Hong Kong stock market and the A - share technology sector. If the scope and intensity of tariffs in April exceed expectations, the risk of market correction may increase; otherwise, risk appetite may recover [21] (6) Capital and Sentiment - In March, the margin trading balance first rose and then fell to over 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating that leveraged funds are becoming more cautious and the motivation for incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient. As the earnings season approaches, performance differentiation may further intensify stock price fluctuations, and the stock index futures market will rely more on macro - data and policy expectations [22]

中国主要经济数据逐步好转 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个 百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升。新订单指数为51.8%，比上月上升 0.7个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。全国规模以上 工业企业实现利润总额下降幅度缩小。中国主要经济数据逐步好转， 预期向好趋势未变。 铜冶炼厂粗炼费继续下降 铜月报 铜供需偏紧，沪铜或高位震荡 内容提要 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 全球铜消费依然较强，铜供给增速较低，供需紧张局面仍存。中 国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）继续下降，并处于历史级别 低位。硫酸价格大涨，支撑铜冶炼企业生产。铜冶炼企业减产预期较 强。2月，美国废铜出口逐步减少，精废价差由负转正。 电网建设投资快速增长 2025 年 1-2 月，电网建设月度投资额为 436.2 亿元，同比增长 33.48，增速较去年同期大幅扩大。沪铜库存持续下降，库存处于近年 来较高水平。LME 铜库存大幅去库，COMEX 铜累库高位运行。综合来看， 铜价可能以震荡行情为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数 ...

研究报告 玻璃月报 预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行 后市展望：3 月整体市场仍处于偏弱格局，且生产端暂无冷修计划， 行业库存累增，中下游提货意愿较弱，出货偏慢，平板玻璃市场弱势运行； 预计 4 月玻璃产线冷修计划和复产点火计划体量或将变化不大，需求预计 改善空间有限，预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行。 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：3 月玻璃 2509 合约下跌 7.21% 基本面：据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 2 月我国平板玻璃产量为 15,173 万重量箱， ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 猪价继续承压运行，盘面或将偏弱震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 操作上，建议观望为主。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 3 月生猪期货主力合约 LH2505 期价在 12940-13785 元/吨之间运行。整体来看，3 月生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡上行， 冲高回落走势，当月小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日周一下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2505 上涨 310 元/吨，涨幅 2.4%，报收 13245 元/吨。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 2025 年 3 月，生猪期价主力合约呈现震荡上行，冲高回落走 势 ...

农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 研究报告 豆粕月报 贸易战开始，豆粕期价震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 3 月豆粕期价震荡整理，2 月豆粕加权下跌 0.95%，以 2932 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.83%，以 2654 报收。 国际市场上，美豆连续下跌 1.07%，以 1014.00 报收，美豆 粉下跌 0.53%，以 300.20 报收。 【重要资讯】： 全球2024/25年度大豆产量预估为4.2076亿吨(持平于2 月预估)，期末存预估为 12141 万吨(2 月预估为 12434 万吨)； 全球 2023/24 年度大豆产量预估为 3.9497 亿吨(持平于 2 月 预估)，期末存预估为 11255 万吨(2 月预估为 11249 万吨)。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 01 日星期二 3 月份 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3908.8 points, up 2.8 points or 0.07% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2680.4 points, up 6.0 points or 0.22%; IC2504 closed at 5869.6 points, down 44.0 points or 0.74%; IM2504 closed at 6212.6 points, down 105.6 points or 1.67% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit was 348.77 billion yuan, up 2.1%; joint - stock enterprises' profit was 673.92 billion yuan, down 2.0%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit was 230.46 billion yuan, up 4.9%; private enterprises' profit was 220.99 billion yuan, down 9.0% [5] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.49 times, the quantile was 63.9%, and the PB was 1.86 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.43 times, the quantile was 48.43%, and the PB was 1.35 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.72 times, the quantile was 65.29%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, the quantile was 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [9] 4. Other Data - The stock - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1 / index static P/E) - 10 - year treasury bond yield; the other is 10 - year treasury bond yield - index static dividend yield [15] 5. Core View - During the trading cycle from March 24 to March 28, the market showed a weak and volatile adjustment trend. As of the close on Friday, the total A - share trading volume was lower than the five - day average for five consecutive days. The average A - share price fell 2.28% this week, and the amplitude was only 3.11%, hitting the lowest level since mid - February. The current market is at a critical turning point. Investors are advised to maintain their existing positions, wait and see cautiously, and make decisions after further observing the market trend [18]

研究报告 铝周报 短期内，铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 沪铝或维持震荡偏弱运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡偏弱行情为主。 价格范围在 20546 元/吨附近至最高 20870 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 美联储巴尔金表示，目前的适度紧缩政策是一个不错的选择， 如果形势变化，美联储可以进行调整。当前的不确定性水平可能 会抑制消费者和企业的支出。电解铝现货价格或维持震荡偏弱运 行，升贴水维持在小幅贴水状态。铝土矿进口量小幅下降，但仍 然处于历史高位。氧化铝处于小幅过剩状态，氧化铝库存小幅下 降，库存水平处于历史低位。全国铝棒库存持续下降，库存水平 仍处于历史高位。沪铝库存小幅上升，库存水平处于近年来较低 位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比出现下降。 【后市展望】 【风险提示】 美联储政 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that this week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. In the later stage, the palm oil - producing areas will enter the production - increasing cycle, while the purchasing enthusiasm of major demand countries is low, and the B40 policy is still not implemented. Under multiple negative factors, palm oil faces significant upward pressure. South American soybean harvest is basically settled, and the US soybeans will enter the planting period. The previous outlook forum predicted a significant year - on - year decline in the new - crop planting area of US soybeans. The Trump administration's requirement for oil and biofuel producers to reach a consensus on the next - stage biofuel policy brings some positive factors to the edible oil market. Domestic edible oils have entered the seasonal consumption off - season, and with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the factory operating rate will increase again. It is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [9][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. The Y2505 soybean oil contract fell 0.45% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the P2505 palm oil contract remained flat at 9,088 yuan/ton, and the OI2505 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.16% to close at 9,271 yuan/ton [5][30]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the output increased by 5.1% month - on - month. The export volume from March 1 - 25 was 835,732 tons, a decrease of 8.08% compared with the same period last month. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01% [7][30]. - **Soybean oil**: Before the release of the US planting intention and quarterly inventory report, analysts expected that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.762 million acres, lower than last year's 87.05 million acres and the 84 million acres estimated by the USDA outlook forum. The expected soybean inventory on March 1, 2025, was 1.901 billion bushels, the highest level in the same period in three years, a 3.0% increase compared with the same period in 2024. US soybeans rose 1.21% this week [7][30]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of March 21, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 1.004 million tons. On March 26, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 367,000 tons [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,764,290 tons [19]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 374 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 582 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 29 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis The content is basically the same as the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom this week, and it is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Methanol may shift from a strong current situation to a weak future expectation. The futures price is likely to continue its weak trend, and the spot price may move towards the futures price [10][35]. - When the operating logic of methanol moves towards the realization of weak expectations, there may be further room for the decline of methanol futures, and opportunities for short - selling methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging for methanol [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to oscillate weakly, which did not match the strong trend of the spot price in East China's Taicang. The current market contradiction lies in the mismatch between the recovery of coastal MTO demand and insufficient import supply. The tight spot circulation in ports pushed the basis in East China to over +120 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Domestic Methanol Production Declined for Seven Consecutive Weeks - From March 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,826,845 tons, a decrease of 27,390 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The number of devices under maintenance and production reduction exceeded those under recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [14]. 2.2 Last Week, the Overall Capacity Utilization Rate of Methanol Downstream Remained Stable - As of March 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 6.74%; the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the operating rate of methane chloride was 77.81%; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 52.42% [18][19]. 2.3 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Sample Production Enterprises Decreased - As of 11:30 on March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 5.09%. The inventory in the northwest region decreased by 9.85% month - on - month, while that in the east, north, central, and southwest regions increased to varying degrees, and the inventory in the northeast region decreased by 5.56% month - on - month [20]. 2.4 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Port Samples Continued to Decline - As of March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The inventory in the Jiangsu area decreased, the inventory in the Zhejiang area increased, and the inventory in the Guangdong and Fujian areas decreased [25][26]. 2.5 Methanol Profits Generally Recovered - From March 21 - 27, 2025, the average weekly profits of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.17%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 275.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.25% and a year - on - year increase of 49.68% [28]. 2.6 Import and Export - In February 2025, China's actual methanol import unloading was 50,960 tons, a decrease of 544,600 tons from the previous month, a decline of 51.71%. The import supply from the Middle East decreased significantly. In February, due to the closure of the re - export arbitrage window, China's actual methanol export was extremely low [32]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 1.8998 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 87.40%, an increase from the current period. The overall capacity utilization rate of the main downstream products of methanol is expected to remain stable. The inventory of methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 325,600 tons, a slight decrease from the current period. The port inventory is expected to decrease significantly. In March 2025, the estimated total import volume is around 534,900 tons, and the export is expected to increase significantly [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the report is ★★ [4] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventories decreased for the fifth consecutive week, social inventories decreased for the third consecutive week, and production changed from a decrease to an increase. After some steel mills in western provinces announced production cut plans at the beginning of last week, it provided a short - term boost to the market. However, the positive sentiment faded in the second half of the week. Coupled with the negative impact of the US 25% tariff on imported cars on the macro - level, the black sector weakened again. The rb2505 contract should focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton [3][31] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9] Important Market Information - On March 26, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, which will take effect on April 2 [13] Supply - side and Demand - side and Inventory - side Information - As of February 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.7, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [17] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 82.11%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.51%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%. The steel mill profitability rate was 53.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 25.11%. The daily average hot metal output was 2.3728 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 159,700 tons. The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 50 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 26 yuan/ton, in Shandong was - 8 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 98 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 24 yuan/ton [30] 后市展望 - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventories decreased for the fifth consecutive week, social inventories decreased for the third consecutive week, and production changed from a decrease to an increase. After the short - term boost from the production cut plans of some steel mills in western provinces at the beginning of last week, the sentiment faded in the second half of the week. Affected by the negative macro - level impact of the US 25% tariff on imported cars, the black sector weakened again. The rb2505 contract should focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton [31] Operation Strategy - It is recommended that the rb2505 contract focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton. If it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to turn to a wait - and - see approach [32]