Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The upstream coal market sentiment is positive due to industry anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity policies, driving the urea futures market stronger. After the elimination of urea production capacity, the supply - side pressure will be effectively alleviated, with a strong expectation. However, currently, there is a weak reality with sufficient supply, slow - growing demand, limited exports, and large inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1803元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-20）；山东小颗粒市场价1790元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差 - 13元/吨（-38）；河南尿素基差7元/吨（-38）；江苏尿素基差7元/吨（-28）；尿素生产利润260.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润1094.6元/吨（+16.0） [1] 2. Upstream Supply - As of July 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.6% (-1.5%), the enterprise in - factory inventory was 85.9 million tons (-3.7), and the port inventory was 54.3 million tons (+0.2). The short - term supply is relatively sufficient, and new production facilities are gradually put into operation, with production remaining at a high level [1][2] 3. Downstream Demand - As of July 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.6% (+1.0%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.2% (+1.0%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.9 days (-0.1). Agricultural demand is gradually ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production is slow, with no bright spots in demand [1][2] 4. Urea Inventory - The inventory depletion rate of enterprises has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish in the short term. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts. - Cross - variety: Coal - based urea production profit [3]

油料周报 | 2025-07-27 价格行情 期货方面，本周豆一主力合约2509收盘价4225元/吨，环比上涨36元，涨幅0.9%。现货方面，巴彦地区食用豆现 货基差A09+76，较上周下跌35；宝清地区食用豆基差A09+96，较上周上涨下跌35；富锦地区食用豆现货基差 A09+96，较上周下跌35；尚志地区食用豆现货基差A09+36，较上周上下跌35。 大豆供需 市场消费淡季，油料延续震荡 大豆市场分析 市场要闻与重要数据 到港预估：Mysteel农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估，2025年7月巴西大豆对中国到港1082万吨，阿根 廷大豆对中国到港119万吨，美国大豆对中国到港为0万吨，共计1201万吨.东北基层余粮不多，贸易商手中库存 见底，豆源供应相对紧张。陈粮竞拍叠加湖北早熟新豆少量上市，缓解部分供应压力。 市场分析 本周大商所豆一期货主力2509合约价格重心继续上移，截止7月24日主力收盘价4224元/吨，周线上涨24元/吨、 涨幅0.57%。东北地区豆价因货源不多平稳运行，贸易商报价较为坚挺，而长江、黄河产区因下游需求不佳，价 格稳中偏弱。现阶段国产大豆市场多数区域以销售2024年大豆为主，余 ...

FICC周报 | 2025-07-27 商品价格大幅波动，关注反内卷后续政策 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温，部分 商品价格回暖。从政策文件和行业自律的内容来看，当前综合整治"内卷式"竞争可以关注钢铁、炼油、合成氨、 水泥、电解铝、数据中心、煤电、光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商等行业。在7月18日举行的国新办新闻发布会 上，工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 987,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,179,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,198,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 41,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,121,400 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 36,700 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 87,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 196,000 contracts [1]. - The specific breakdown of call and put trading volumes and total trading volumes for each option type is as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had 521,200 call contracts, 465,900 put contracts, and a total of 987,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had 585,400 call contracts, 594,500 put contracts, and a total of 1,179,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had 682,800 call contracts, 516,100 put contracts, and a total of 1,198,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options had 22,000 call contracts, 19,800 put contracts, and a total of 41,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 618,600 call contracts, 502,800 put contracts, and a total of 1,121,400 contracts; SSE 50 index options had 12,400 call contracts, 28,100 put contracts, and a total of 36,700 contracts; CSI 300 index options had 58,300 call contracts, 28,700 put contracts, and a total of 87,000 contracts; CSI 1000 index options had 112,200 call contracts, 83,900 put contracts, and a total of 196,000 contracts [20]. 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, for each option type are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.37 (环比 change of -0.10) and a position PCR of 1.32 (环比 change of +0.11); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had a turnover PCR of 0.34 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 1.26 (环比 change of +0.00); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had a turnover PCR of 0.48 (环比 change of -0.03) and a position PCR of 1.36 (环比 change of -0.04); Shenzhen 100 ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.21 (环比 change of -0.11) and a position PCR of 1.12 (环比 change of +0.05); ChiNext ETF options had a turnover PCR of 0.39 (环比 change of -0.03) and a position PCR of 1.38 (环比 change of +0.06); SSE 50 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.25 (环比 change of -0.08) and a position PCR of 0.55 (环比 change of +0.00); CSI 300 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.36 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 0.71 (环比 change of +0.01); CSI 1000 index options had a turnover PCR of 0.48 (环比 change of -0.04) and a position PCR of 0.92 (环比 change of +0.00) [2][29]. 3. Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes for each option type are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options had a VIX of 17.56% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had a VIX of 18.04% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had a VIX of 22.07% (环比 change of +0.00%); Shenzhen 100 ETF options had a VIX of 21.97% (环比 change of +0.00%); ChiNext ETF options had a VIX of 25.86% (环比 change of -0.03%); SSE 50 index options had a VIX of 19.27% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 300 index options had a VIX of 19.44% (环比 change of +0.00%); CSI 1000 index options had a VIX of 22.71% (环比 change of +0.00%) [3][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic "anti-involution" policy continues to advance, and the related themes remain hot, but short-term hot trading fluctuates repeatedly. The market completed a washout in a low-open and high-go trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully regained 3600 points. As the market's consensus on the "bull market" expectation gradually strengthens, margin trading funds and equity funds, as important incremental sources for this round of the market, are continuously injecting vitality into the market and promoting the spread of the profit-making effect [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, improving the standards for identifying dumping at low prices, regulating market price order, and governing "involution-style" competition [1] - **Overseas Economy**: In July, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.6, both hitting new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 217,000, the lowest level since mid-April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000 [1] - **Spot Market**: A-share's three major indexes opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.50%. Most sector indexes rose, with beauty care, non-ferrous metals, steel, and commercial retail industries leading the gains, while only the banking, communication, and public utilities industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.84 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.7% and the Nasdaq rising 0.18% to 21057.96 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures was repaired. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the open interest increased [2] 2. Strategy - The domestic "anti-involution" policy continues to advance, and the related themes remain hot. The market completed a washout in a low-open and high-go trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully regained 3600 points. As the market's consensus on the "bull market" expectation gradually strengthens, margin trading funds and equity funds are continuously injecting vitality into the market and promoting the spread of the profit-making effect [3] 3. Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts on the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][8][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 24, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.50%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.71%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.32%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.56%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.42% [13] - **Market Data**: The report also includes charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [12][13] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the open interest increased. Specifically, the trading volume of IF was 114,133 (a decrease of 16,976), the open interest was 271,368 (an increase of 2,311); the trading volume of IH was 53,842 (a decrease of 13,034), the open interest was 100,891 (an increase of 135); the trading volume of IC was 95,468 (a decrease of 9,753), the open interest was 229,789 (an increase of 1,553); the trading volume of IM was 205,106 (a decrease of 6,634), the open interest was 338,313 (an increase of 35) [16] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures was repaired. The report provides the basis data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, including the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [38] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report provides the inter - delivery spread data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, including the next month - current month, next quarter - current month, etc., and their changes [45] - **Charts**: The report includes charts on the open interest of different contracts, the latest open interest ratio, foreign investors' net open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][16][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. In China, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market. However, the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to have an increased production in the new season, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar spot price is firm due to fast sales, but the high import profit and expected increase in imports put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] - For pulp, the short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the pulp price rebounds. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year due to high imports and domestic capacity expansion, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. From 7.11 - 7.17, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton was - 7416 tons, and the shipment was 41,912 tons, up 18% from the previous week. The net signing of this year's Pima cotton was 1247 tons, and the shipment was 1134 tons, down 37% from the previous week. New - year upland cotton signing was 30,073 tons, and new - year Pima cotton signing was 3946 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. Domestically, the fast inventory reduction, delayed quota issuance, and un - priced contracts drive the Zhengzhou cotton price up. But the strong new cotton harvest expectation, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation restrict the upward space. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise due to capital influence. In the long - term, the sufficient global supply and potential policies limit the upward space of the 01 contract [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Russia, some areas are affected by drought, with 39% and 59% of beet - planting areas in Krasnodar and Rostov affected respectively [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price rebound is restricted by the expected global production increase. The domestic sugar spot price is firm, but the high import profit and expected import increase put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. In the long - term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5456 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with some varieties having weak high - price transactions [8] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the low - priced pulp rebounds. In terms of supply, the wood pulp imports increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic capacity expansion is expected to reduce imports in the second half. But the slow de - stocking and high port inventory mean supply pressure remains. In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season [9] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. Short - selling on rallies after the macro - stimulus ends is recommended [10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-24 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3240元/吨，山东价格录得3220元/吨，广西价格录得 3300元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得380美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-24氧化铝主力合约开于3361元/吨，收于3427元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨8元/ 吨，涨幅0.23%，最高价达到3488元/吨，最低价为3324元/吨。全天交易日成交786570手，较上一交易日减少 152741手，全天交易日持仓189037手，较上一交易日减少4907手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-07-23保太民用生铝采购价格15300元/吨，机械生铝采购价格15500元/吨，价格环比昨 日下跌100元/吨。ADC12保太报价19700元/吨，价格环比昨日下滑-100元/吨，华东地区ADC12-A00价差-820 元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存4.32万吨，周度环比增加0.6万吨，厂内库存6.36万吨，周度环比减少-0.03万吨，总 库存10.68，周度环比增加0.57万吨。 氧化铝价格博弈因素依旧较多 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-25 现货价格下跌，豆粕偏弱震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3025元/吨，较前日变动-70元/吨，幅度-2.26%；菜粕2509合约2682元/吨，较前 日变动-76元/吨，幅度-2.76%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2930元/吨，较前日变动-70元/吨，现货基差M09-95， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2830元/吨，较前日变动-70元/吨，现货基差M09-195，较前日变动+0；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动跌-40元/吨，现货基差M09-175，较前日变动+30。福建地区菜粕现货价格2630 元/吨，较前日变动-80元/吨，现货基差RM09-52，较前日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年7月份巴西大豆出口量1211万吨，低于一周前预估的1219 万吨，低于6月份的出口量1348万吨，但同比增长26%。 市场分析 从目前的天气预测来看，未来一段时间内美豆主产区仍将延续当下的良好天气，虽然新季美豆播种面积有所下降， 但是在目前高单产的加持下预计新季美豆仍将维持丰产格局。国内 ...

PA联盟运价下修至3100美元/FEU，现货价格顶部大概率已 现 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹31周价格为1907/3214，32周报价开出，目前为1815/3050；HPL 8月上半 月船期报价2035/3335，8月下半月船期报价2035/3335。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹7月份下半月船期报价2060/3440，8月上半月船期价格2163/3646；ONE 8月上半月船期报价2814/3643；HMM上海-鹿特丹8月上半月船期报价1765/3100; YML8月上半月船期报价降至 1800/3100。（注：ONE8月上半月线下价格已经下修至1989/3108） Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹8月份上半月船期报价2085/3745，8月下半月船期报价2285/4145；EMC8月上半 月船期报价2455/3760；OOCL 8月上半月船期报价2100/3500。 地缘端：美国中东问题特使威特科夫周四说，美国将退出以色列和哈马斯之间的多哈停火谈判，因为美国认为哈 马斯没有认真谈判。威特科夫周三前往 ...