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聚烯烃日报:聚烯烃延续偏弱,关注宏观动态-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to be weak, with PE and PP prices under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and weakening cost support [1][2][3] - For PE, the continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. For PP, the weakening is dragged down by falling crude oil and propane prices, along with a loose supply - demand pattern [2][3] - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and provides strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton (+5), PP main contract at 6565 yuan/ton (+14). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot at 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6580 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+25), LL East China basis 71 yuan/ton (-5), PP East China basis 15 yuan/ton (-4) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), PDH - based PP production profit was 110.2 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 150.2 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit was - 573.0 yuan/ton (-49.7), PP export profit was 31.3 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up limitedly, and cost support weakens. Monitor cost and macro - policy impacts [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is due to falling crude oil and propane prices and a loose supply - demand pattern. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up insufficiently, and cost support weakens. Monitor propane supply and PDH device operation [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile, focus on macro - dynamics [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]
国债期货日报:LPR保持不变,国债期货全线收跌-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:12
国债期货日报 | 2025-10-21 LPR保持不变,国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:2025年8月1日,财政部与税务总局发布公告称,自2025年8月8日起,对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券(包括8月8日后续 发行的部分)仍享受免征增值税政策,直至到期;关税方面,中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明,自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天;国务院第九次全体会议强调,采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势, 培育壮大服务消费,加力扩大有效投资;9月10日,财政部长明确表示,"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策";发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理";10月8 日,美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费,10月10 日,交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告;10 月11日,特朗普于社交媒体发文称,从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。(2)通胀:9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面:(3)财政:财政:本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强 ...
宏观日报:前三季度经济稳步上行-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy showed a steady upward trend in the first three quarters of 2025. In the production industry, fixed - asset investment declined slightly, but equipment and tool purchase investment had double - digit growth, and high - end manufacturing investment was prominent. In the service industry, the real estate market showed signs of improvement, and shipping and aviation industries had changes in schedules and prices [1][2]. - Different sectors in the industry had various trends. Upstream industries like glass and some agricultural products had price changes; mid - stream industries such as chemical and energy sectors had fluctuations in开工率 and consumption; downstream industries like real estate and services also had different performance [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production Industry - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and a 0.07% decline in September compared to the previous month. Equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 14.0% year - on - year. In terms of industrial structure, the primary industry investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year, the secondary industry investment increased by 6.3%, with industrial investment up 6.4% and manufacturing investment up 4.0%. High - end manufacturing sectors like automobile manufacturing and railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing had significant investment growth of 19.2% and 22.3% respectively [1]. Service Industry - In September 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new - home prices rose. Some cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed positive trends in the real estate market. The 2025 winter - spring flight schedule was implemented from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with 1.0% and 1.8% declines in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Global shipping giants raised freight rates on multiple routes by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container from October 15 [2]. Industry Overview - Upstream - In the black industry, glass prices dropped significantly. In the agricultural industry, egg prices rose slightly, while pork prices declined [3]. Industry Overview - Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate remained stable at a high level, while the polyester and PTA operating rates were low. In the energy industry, power plant coal consumption decreased [4]. Industry Overview - Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline. In the service industry, the number of domestic flights increased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On October 20, various commodities had different price changes. For example, in the agricultural sector, the spot price of eggs increased by 4.59% year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.11%. In the energy sector, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 2.97%, while the spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 2.30% [36].
聚丙烯日报:成本端支撑有限,丙烯价格跌至年内低位-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The propylene price has dropped to a new low for the year, with its supply increasing due to the restart and capacity increase of PDH units and the shutdown of some new devices. The demand is weak as downstream customers are cautious in stocking up and overall downstream开工率 has declined. The cost side, affected by factors such as weak oil demand and propane price trends, does not strongly support the propylene price. The propylene market is in a loose supply - demand pattern with limited upward drive, but the downside space is also limited at the current low - price stage [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves data including the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production profit and operating rate includes the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [18][26][28]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import and export profit data includes the differences between South Korean FOB and Chinese CFR, Japanese CFR and Chinese CFR, Southeast Asian CFR and Chinese CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Downstream profit and operating rate data cover PP powder production profit and operating rate, propylene oxide production profit and operating rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [43][45][48]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68]. Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The main contract closing price is 6026 yuan/ton (+19), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (-90), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (-150), the East China basis is 49 yuan/ton (-109), the North China basis is - 16 yuan/ton (-169), the operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between Chinese CFR propylene and Japanese CFR naphtha is 238 US dollars/ton (+9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 143 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 436 yuan/ton (-25), and the in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1]. - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 39% (-1.31%), production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+70); propylene oxide operating rate is 68% (-4%), production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol operating rate is 90% (+2%), production profit is 12 yuan/ton (-7); octanol operating rate is 92% (-4%), production profit is - 71 yuan/ton (-171); acrylic acid operating rate is 75% (-8%), production profit is 1187 yuan/ton (+14); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 466 yuan/ton (+156); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+0%), production profit is - 600 yuan/ton (+25) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH units [3]. - Inter - period: Consider a reverse spread for PL01 - 02 at high prices [3]. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3].
专题报告:旺季尾声产量居高不下,材库存压力显现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 01:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].
中国2025年9月经济数据图景:总量稳步上行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 01:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic volume is steadily increasing. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 101.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 58.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth. In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, and from January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [3][4]. - Pay attention to the progress of domestic demand expansion in the fourth quarter. China's economy has steadily increased in the first three quarters, with a cumulative growth of 5.2%, far exceeding that of major global economies. However, the real estate downturn needs further repair and adjustment. It is necessary to focus on domestic demand stimulus policies in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total: Steady Uptick - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy maintained stable growth. GDP was 101.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 58.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth. The information transmission, software, and information technology services, and leasing and business services continued to drive service industry growth. Industrial production advanced steadily, with the added value of large - scale industries increasing by 6.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. In September, the service business activity index was 50.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.3% [10][11]. 3.2 Inflation: Slight Improvement - In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The price pressure on mid - stream manufacturing eased, some export - oriented industries improved, the impact of international imports was divided, new productive forces industries maintained growth, and consumer demand continued to support. The year - on - year rebound of PPI in the third quarter was mainly due to the low base and anti - involution market expectations. In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, indicating that domestic consumer demand continued to recover [20][40]. 3.3 Investment: Growth Rate Decline - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Equipment and tool purchase investment maintained double - digit growth. In terms of industrial structure, investment in the first, second, and third industries all slowed down. Some high - end manufacturing fields showed prominent investment performance, while investment in some industries continued to contract. China is in a critical period of new and old kinetic energy conversion, but the endogenous driving force and resilience of economic growth are still increasing [55][56]. 3.4 Production: Continued Differentiation - From January to September 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The industrial structure continued to upgrade, and the utilization rate of industrial production capacity improved. However, industry performance continued to differentiate, with high - end manufacturing fields showing strong vitality and some traditional fields having low capacity utilization rates [60]. 3.5 Consumption: Growth Rate Slowdown - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 365,877 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%. The market structure continued to optimize, and online consumption and service consumption showed good growth. In September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, a decline from the previous month, mainly due to the misaligned Mid - Autumn Festival and the high base formed by last year's consumption promotion policies [71]. 3.6 Real Estate: Still in Need of Improvement - From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The national real estate climate index declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and housing prices showed a mixed trend. The real estate market is in a stage of "policy support and endogenous adjustment", and future development depends on key variables such as the implementation efficiency of stock housing acquisition, the accuracy of private real estate enterprise financing support, and the deepening space of first - tier city policies [80][81]. 3.7 Appendix: National Bureau of Statistics Announcement - In the first three quarters, the national economy continued to develop steadily. GDP was 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Agricultural production was good, industrial production grew rapidly, service industry development was stable, market sales increased steadily, fixed - asset investment was stable with a slight decline, goods import and export continued to grow, core CPI continued to rebound, employment was generally stable, and residents' income increased steadily [101].
黑色建材周报:成交情绪欠佳,厂库有所累积-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the silicon manganese and silicon iron industries is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market oscillated weakly this week, with the main contract closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the pre - holiday closing price. The silicon iron futures oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5,430 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. Both silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and factors such as cost support, coal and electricity price changes, and regional policies should be monitored [1][2][5] - Silicon manganese enterprises are facing intensified losses, high production, and weakening downstream molten iron demand. Silicon iron enterprises have a slight decline in production, continuous losses, and weakening downstream demand, along with an increase in sample enterprise inventory [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Silicon manganese: The main contract closed at 5,718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the pre - holiday closing price. The second - round inquiry price for mainstream steel procurement this week was 5,800 yuan/ton. The 6517 price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton [1][5] - Silicon iron: The main contract closed at 5,430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton or 0.63% weekly. The spot market sentiment was average, waiting for HBIS's standard. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - Silicon manganese: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 43.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The daily average output was 29,800 tons, an increase of 655 tons [1][8] - Silicon iron: The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises was 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The daily average output was 16,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62% or 434 tons [2][8] Demand - Silicon manganese: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [1][15] - Silicon iron: The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 19,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [2][15] Inventory - This week, the inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers reached a five - year high, and the silicon iron inventory also accumulated to a high level [20] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [3] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3]
黑色建材周报:补库需求回暖,价格偏强震荡-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:15
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Coking coal**: Oscillation [3] - **Coke**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross - variety**: None [3] - **Spot - futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 2. Core Views - In the coking coal market, influenced by the continuous price increase of coal, the short - term replenishment demand from downstream and mid - stream has increased. Meanwhile, safety inspections in the northern regions have become stricter, leading to a price rebound. After the thermal coal price stabilizes, opportunities for shorting coking coal should be monitored [2]. - In the coke market, affected by the rising price of thermal coal, the price of raw coal has increased, and the enthusiasm for replenishment from mid - and downstream has grown. However, as steel mill profits have shrunk significantly, steel mills are strongly resistant, intensifying the game between coking plants and steel mills. The price of coke is oscillating widely, with an upper limit due to the expected steel mill production cuts and a lower limit supported by the rising coal prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,676 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from last week. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,179 yuan/ton, a 1.55% increase from last week. Affected by factors such as the post - National Day demand recovery, prices are oscillating strongly [1][5]. Supply - This week, the daily average coke production of independent coking enterprises in the Mysteel sample was 521,800 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.99%, a 0.96% decrease from last week [1][25]. Demand - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week but 2.34 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week and 19.05 percentage points lower than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 240,950 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from last week but an increase of 6,590 tons compared to last year [1][33]. Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 595,080 tons, a decrease of 3,290 tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 751,870 tons, a decrease of 14,580 tons from last week. Independent coking enterprises had a slight inventory reduction; the total coking coal inventory of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 829,780 tons, a decrease of 17,210 tons from last week [1][34].
黑色建材周报:终端需求显著提振,产区煤价连续上涨-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:15
黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-19 终端需求显著提振 产区煤价连续上涨 市场分析 期货与现货价格:产地指数:截至10月17日,榆林5800大卡指数613.0元/吨,周环比上涨46.0元/吨;鄂尔多斯5500 大卡指数555.0元/吨,周环比上涨51.0元/吨;大同5500大卡指数625.0元/吨;周环比上涨50.0元/吨。港口指数:截 至10月17日,CCI进口4700指数72.5美元/吨,周环比上涨2.8美元/吨,CCI进口3800指数报56.3美元/吨,周环比上 涨2.3美元/吨。 港口方面:截至到10月17日,北方港港口总库存 2183.0万吨,较上周减少142万吨,港口库存有所降低。 电厂方面:截至到 10月17日,沿海六大电厂煤炭库存 1388.4万吨,环比上周减少34.7万吨;平均可用天数为 17 天,周环比持平;电厂日耗83.5万吨,环比上周减少0.8万吨。 海运费:截止到10月17 日,海运煤炭运价指数(OCFI)报于1046.24点,上涨143.23个点。截止到 10月17 日,波 罗的海干散货指数(BDI)报于2069.00点,上涨23.00个点,涨幅为1.12%。 煤矿安监动态、港口 ...
黑色建材周报:供需矛盾不减,玻碱盘面走弱-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: This week, the glass mid - and downstream demand weakened further, with both volume and price dropping, and the de - stocking pressure increased. As the consumption peak season is about to end and some production lines still have the expectation of resuming production, the glass price is expected to continue to run weakly [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains. There is still an expectation of further increase in high - level supply, the demand side has resilience, and the de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year. Soda ash maintains a weak operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Spread - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract 2601 was 1095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/ton, or a decline of 9.28%. The domestic float glass market price was 1246 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Soda Ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract 2601 was 1209 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton, or a decline of 2.5% [1][5]. Supply - Glass: The float glass enterprise operating rate was 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, remaining flat week - on - week [1][25]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the output was 74.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [2][25]. Demand - Glass: After the festival, the real estate demand continued to be weak, the deep - processing rigid demand of glass decreased week - on - week, the inventory of middle - stream traders was high, and the speculative demand also weakened [1][27]. - Soda Ash: The demand was relatively stable [27]. Inventory - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%, with obvious inventory accumulation [1][30]. - Soda Ash: The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%, with obvious inventory accumulation [2][30].