燃料油周报 | 2025-10-19 油价中枢持续走低，低硫油市场承压 市场分析 本周燃料油期货市场表现：随着旺季结束，原油基本面进入由强转弱的阶段，叠加宏观风险增加，原油价格连续 下跌，并对能源板块整体价格形成压制。FU主力合约跌幅录得5.54%，LU主力合约周度跌幅录得7.13%。 供应方面：近期中东局势有所缓和，区域断供风险回落。而随着欧佩克逐步放松减产，沙特等产油国的剩余产能 得以释放，考虑到这些国家中质含硫原油占比较高，将对燃料油的供应形成一定促进。虽然欧佩克实际增产量低 于配额，但趋势已经形成。参考Kpler船期数据，中东9月份高硫燃料油发货量预计达到441万吨，环比减少70万吨， 同比下降34万吨。中东10月份截至目前观察的发货量预计在372万吨，下旬还有上修空间。在当地发电需求旺季结 束以及炼厂检修完成后，中东地区燃料油出口可能还有进一步增长的空间。伊朗方面，9月发货量预计在145万吨， 环比增加12万吨，同比减少30万吨。10月份截至目前的发货量预计在57万吨。美国对于伊朗的制裁还在加码，导 致伊朗油贸易的难度持续攀升。俄罗斯方面，由于乌克兰无人机的大规模袭击，8月份炼厂检修量偏高，高硫燃料 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the port destocking rate has slowed down, domestic production capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization has decreased. There is still inventory pressure in PA6, nylon filament, and MDI [4]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, new device production impacts, downstream capacity utilization has increased but port inventory pressure persists, overseas demand is weak, and inventory pressure continues [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not elaborated in the content, only figure names are mentioned such as pure benzene and styrene futures contracts, spot prices, basis, and inter - period spreads [9][10][17] 2. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 11,900 tons (-27,300 tons). The overall styrene factory capacity utilization is 71.88% (-1.73%), with different rates in different regions: East China 71.42% (+3.35%), Shandong 62.46% (-13.08%), and South China 80.53% (-2.17%) [1]. - In the short term, maintenance continues, satellite petrochemical is under maintenance, and new device production from Jihua, Guangxi Petrochemical, etc. impacts [4]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS capacity utilization is 62.52% (+21.78%), PS capacity utilization is 53.80% (-0.80%), ABS capacity utilization is 73.10% (+0.60%), UPR capacity utilization is 34.00% (+14.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber capacity utilization is 70.20% (-0.20%) [1]. - EPS has a seasonal post - festival increase, PS capacity utilization continues to decline, ABS capacity utilization rebounds from a low level, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three hard plastics is still large [4]. 4. Styrene Inventory - The East China port inventory of styrene is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), and the factory inventory is 193,420 tons (-443 tons). The inventory of EPS sample enterprises is 34,600 tons (+4,100 tons), PS sample enterprises is 112,050 tons (+3,350 tons), ABS sample enterprises is 257,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprises is 19,000 tons (-1,500 tons) [1]. - The port inventory pressure persists, and overseas demand is weak, increasing the import pressure on China [4]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The East China port inventory of pure benzene is 90,000 tons (-1,000 tons). The pure benzene capacity utilization is 75.48% (-3.81%), and the hydro - benzene capacity utilization is 64.53% (+1.29%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - In the CPL industry chain, the CPL capacity utilization is 92.41% (-3.59%), the PA6 capacity utilization is 79.58% (+1.37%), and the nylon filament capacity utilization is 77.50% (-0.50%) [2]. - In the phenol - acetone industry chain, the phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78.00% (+0.00%), the bisphenol A capacity utilization is 68.90% (-5.77%), the PC capacity utilization is 77.69% (-3.23%), and the epoxy resin capacity utilization is 50.64% (-0.25%) [2]. - In the aniline industry chain, the aniline capacity utilization is 75.73% (-1.43%), the polymer MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%), and the pure MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%) [3]. - In the adipic acid industry chain, the adipic acid capacity utilization is 59.10% (-7.80%), the spandex capacity utilization is 77.50% (+0.00%), the PA66 capacity utilization is 60.45% (-0.82%), and the polyurethane elastomer capacity utilization is 53.50% (+1.21%) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on October 16, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On October 16, 2025, the trading volumes of various stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) had 206.93 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) had 239.22 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 218.91 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index options had 18.88 million contracts; CSI 1000 options had 36.24 million contracts; SSE 50 ETF options had 156.74 million contracts; SSE 50 stock index options had 10.48 million contracts; and Shenzhen 100 ETF options had 19.24 million contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type, such as 81.65 million call and 77.50 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 159.15 million contracts [19]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data for different options on October 16, 2025, showed that the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.48, with a - 0.27 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.87, with a + 0.14 change [2]. - For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.60, with a - 0.51 change, and the position PCR was 1.04, with a + 0.12 change [2]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data of different options on October 16, 2025, indicated that the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 18.13%, with a - 1.70% change compared to the previous period [3]. - For instance, the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 19.28%, with a - 1.65% change [3].

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-17 M1M2剪刀差收窄，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告。（2） 通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：社融、信贷、M2 等总量指标仍在回落，表明经济内生动能偏弱、 需求恢复有限；但 M1 增 速持续上行、剪刀差收窄，说明资金 ...

甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润660元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2065元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差346元/吨（-21），内蒙南线2050元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2318元/吨（-3），鲁 南基差199元/吨（-24）；河南2165元/吨（-10），河南基差46元/吨（-31）；河北2210元/吨（-25），河北基差151元/ 吨（-46）。隆众内地工厂库存359900吨（+20500），西北工厂库存223000吨（+19000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单228910 吨（+113670），西北工厂待发订单136730吨（+73530）。 甲醇日报 | 2025-10-17 继续关注伊朗船货物流进展 港口方面：太仓甲醇2297元/吨（-20），太仓基差-22元/吨（-41），CFR中国267美元/吨（+6），华东进口价差-20元/ 吨（-21），常州甲醇2395元/吨；广东甲醇2275元/吨（-10），广东基差-44元/吨（-31）。隆众港口总库存1491360吨 （-51870），江苏港口库存773000吨（-2000 ...

棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13320元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨，幅度+0.38%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14510元/吨，较前一日变动-3元/吨，现货基差CF01+1190，较前一日变动-53；3128B棉全国均价14664元/吨， 较前一日变动-10元/吨，现货基差CF01+1344，较前一日变动-60。 近期市场资讯，8月泰国棉花进口量约9057吨，环比（约1.6万吨）减少43.5%，同比（8952吨）增加1.2%。从主要 进口来源看，美棉（5064吨）进口居首位，约占总进口量的55.9%；澳棉（2121吨）排第二，占比约为23.4%；巴 西棉（1336吨）排第三，占比在14.8%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美贸易战上周再度升级，双方采取强硬措施互相施压：美国威胁自11月1日 起对中国商品加征100%额外关税，中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面，美国 联邦政府已停摆超一周，受此影响美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对 于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean futures market showed an upward trend, while the spot market had a complex situation. With new grain harvest and ample supply, there is a risk of price decline. Some traders are increasing their purchases of Northeast soybeans. The peanut futures market is in a weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply - demand situation remains weak due to concerns about market impact from the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand support [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Directory Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4018.00 yuan/ton, a change of +19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.48%. Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 22, a change of - 19 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - Market Information: Northeast new - season soybeans are mostly harvested, with over 90% of the remaining grain. High - protein soybeans are in high demand and have firm prices, while low - protein soybeans are weak. Low - protein common soybeans are priced at 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein at 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein at 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. In some regions of Heilongjiang, the prices of specific types of soybeans remained stable compared to the previous day. In Anhui, new - bean trading is light due to high moisture from rainfall, and some traders are buying Northeast soybeans. In Shandong, new - bean quality varies, and some local traders are increasing purchases of soybeans from other regions [2][3] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7966.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 96.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.19%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8350.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.12%. The spot basis was PK11 + 234.00, a change of +96.00 from the previous day, an increase of +69.57% [4] - Market Information: The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market is 4.18 yuan/jin, remaining stable. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract purchase prices for general - quality and oil - grade peanuts are within certain ranges, and some oil mills have a good arrival volume. The peanut futures market is weakly volatile. Concerns about the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand from most large oil mills have led to a weak short - term supply - demand situation [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows a pattern of reduced supply this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The market has seen some improvement in trading volume, with social inventories reaching an inflection point but still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The PVC futures price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [3] - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,694 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 94 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 34 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 622 yuan/ton (+153), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 538 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit is 4.4 US dollars/ton (-2.4) [1] - Inventory and start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 38.4 million tons (+8.4), the social PVC inventory is 55.7 million tons (+1.9), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.14% (-5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 58.3 million tons (-19.3) [1] Market Analysis - The PVC futures price may rebound with the macro - sentiment after a volatile decline The supply has decreased this week due to autumn maintenance, but new production capacities are gradually ramping up, resulting in an overall ample supply The social inventory has reached an inflection point but is still at a high level Exports are facing policy uncertainties, and the overall supply - demand situation remains weak The high - level futures warehouse receipts are putting pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [4] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,453 yuan/ton (+15), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 141 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,290 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 939.5 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 237.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 million tons (-1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 million tons (+0.34), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 81.40% (-2.90%) [2] - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 86.32% (+0.14%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.61% (-1.02%) [2] Market Analysis - The 32% caustic soda spot price shows mixed trends This week, the production has slightly decreased due to increased maintenance, while the demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the non - aluminum end's purchasing sentiment has improved There are uncertainties in the start - up of new alumina plants in Guangxi, and the cost support for caustic soda still exists [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Pay attention to the downstream purchasing and the start - up progress of alumina plants in Guangxi, and go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: No recommendation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market has rebounded recently, driven by factors such as a technical bounce after an oversold situation and concerns about potential supply disruptions from the US due to tariff threats. However, considering the uncertainties in macro and policy aspects during the China - US negotiation window and the expected continuation of the global oversupply situation in LPG, there are still resistances in the market [1] Market Analysis Summary - On October 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4810 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4490 - 4530 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 539 dollars/ton and 544 dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4211 yuan/ton and 4250 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 533 dollars/ton and 538 dollars/ton respectively, also up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4164 yuan/ton and 4203 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each [1] - The recent rebound of the PG futures is due to an oversold bounce. After Saudi Arabia cut the October CP price more than expected, the overseas market dropped during the National Day holiday, and the domestic futures followed suit. The spot market was relatively stable, leading to a stronger basis. After the price decline, the cost reduction of raw materials is conducive to the marginal repair of downstream chemical profits and demand. The narrowing price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switch of raw materials from naphtha to LPG. The threat of US tariffs has also strengthened the rebound sentiment. But due to the uncertainties in macro and policy and the expected continuation of the global oversupply of LPG, the market resistance remains [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 72,820 yuan/ton and closed at 74,940 yuan/ton, with a 2.52% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 268,890 lots, and the open interest was 177,951 lots, down from 188,523 lots the previous day. The current basis was -700 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,456 lots, a decrease of 2,620 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 820 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and watching, and the overall market trading activity was flat [1]. - New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October was expected to have growth potential. The power market of new energy vehicles was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger use, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with a decrease in smelter and downstream inventory and a slight increase in intermediate inventory [1]. 2. Company News - On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipping ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products from its Malian Bugoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate would be shipped from Bugoni to the Port of San Pedro in Côte d'Ivoire and then to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship to provide core raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market rebounded before the close on the day, mainly affected by the overall strength of commodities, inventory reduction, and warehouse receipt cancellation. There was some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory was continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound operations were recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be carried out at high prices. There were no specific strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].