新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-25 货源呈现区域性紧缺 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-24，沪铜主力合约开于 79880元/吨，收于 79890元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.38%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,520元/吨，收于 79,290 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.69%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，国内电解铜现货市场升水继续回落。SMM1#电解铜报价79,690-79,900元/吨，当月合约升水90-200元 /吨，均价145元/吨，较前日下跌35元。沪铜主力早盘自79,760元/吨震荡下行至79,600-79,700元/吨区间，Contango 结构维持在C100-C80元/吨。市场呈现三个特征：一是冶炼厂到货缓解上海地区现货紧张，主流平水铜成交价由160 元/吨回落至100-120元/吨；二是好铜溢价同步走低至180元/吨附近；三是湿法铜因缅甸货源紧张维持平水成交。考 虑到今日是周五，下游备货需求可能回升，预计现货升水跌幅将有所收窄。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，欧盟通过总额930亿欧元的对美关税反制计划，若未达成协议，措施将于8月7日生 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-25 盘面窄幅震荡，市场短期驱动有限 市场分析 低硫燃料油方面，近期基本面边际转松，巴西船货到港有所增加，科威特出口也开始恢复，亚太地区现货并无明 显矛盾。中期来看，低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，且航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代， 对市场前景形成压制。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收平，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.59%，报3588元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对燃料油短期方向指引有限，FU、LU盘面窄幅震荡，中期则面临油市平衡表转松、成本 中枢下行的压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期俄罗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacities of pure benzene and styrene plants in operation for over 20 years account for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ futures still maintain a certain premium. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand for BZ downstream is acceptable. Attention should be paid to whether the styrene and CPL operations can remain strong. In terms of supply, there is still pressure on South Korea's exports to China, and domestic production operations are still at a high level. The processing fee for pure benzene continues to show weak consolidation. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. In terms of supply, domestic EB operations are still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the operations of the three major hard plastics have rebounded, the inventory pressure of PS continues to ease, and ABS still has inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 246 yuan/ton (- 40), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 75 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The styrene main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton), pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and the pure benzene US - South Korea spread is 119.9 dollars/ton (+ 2.0 dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 44 yuan/ton (+ 13 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.10 million tons (+ 0.70 million tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+ 12,200 tons), and styrene East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+ 11,200 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products varies: caprolactam operating rate is 90.90% (- 0.83%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 3.00%), aniline operating rate is 73.66% (+ 0.77%), and adipic acid operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%). The styrene operating rate is 78.8% (+ 0.5%) [1] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 216 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.21% (+ 2.02%), PS operating rate is 51.60% (+ 1.00%), and ABS operating rate is 66.82% (+ 0.92%), with downstream operations at a seasonal low [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profits of pure benzene downstream products are as follows: caprolactam production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (+ 15), phenol - acetone production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (- 16), and adipic acid production profit is - 1482 yuan/ton (+ 9) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene; wait and see for styrene - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, do reverse arbitrage when the price is high; do reverse arbitrage for EB2509 - 2510 inter - period - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For PVC, the expectation of eliminating old devices continues to boost market sentiment, and the futures price continues to be strong. However, the supply - side pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The rise is mainly driven by sentiment, and policy progress needs to be monitored [3] - For烧碱, the market sentiment is boosted by the assessment of old devices and the low price of liquid chlorine, and the futures price is strong. The supply is high with new production expected, the demand has rigid support from alumina but non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5238 yuan/ton (+87), the East China basis is - 168 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 163 yuan/ton (-32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 5070 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 5075 yuan/ton (+55) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 87 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method gross profit is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the PVC ethylene method gross profit is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 15.7 dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social inventory is 42.7 tons (+1.6), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.21% (+1.69%), the ethylene method operation rate is 66.95% (-1.36%), and the overall operation rate is 75.81% (+0.84%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2675 yuan/ton (+31), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 81 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (+120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 652.53 yuan/ton (+60.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1719.84 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.84 tons (+2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.31 tons (-0.09), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.00% (+1.40%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.42%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The expectation of eliminating old PVC devices boosts market sentiment, and the futures price is strong. The supply - side pressure is large due to high operation and new production, the demand is weak with low domestic demand and neutral exports, and the inventory is accumulating. The rise is sentiment - driven [3] 烧碱 - The assessment of old devices and the low price of liquid chlorine boost market sentiment, and the futures price is strong. The supply is high with new production expected, the demand has rigid support from alumina but non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging as the macro - sentiment drives the futures price to be strong [4] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4] 烧碱 - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging. The low price of liquid chlorine strengthens cost support, and the futures price is expected to be strong due to the expectation of eliminating old devices and macro - sentiment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. India is expected to further increase its palm oil imports in the second half of the year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 17 million tons in 2025, providing some support for palm oil, resulting in a slightly stronger fluctuation in oil prices [3] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9,104 yuan/ton, a change of +110 yuan or +1.22% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,166 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan or +1.14%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +36 yuan or +0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.66%, with a spot basis of P09 + -64 yuan, a change of -170 yuan; the spot price of grade one soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,240 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 74 yuan, a change of -72 yuan; the spot price of grade four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,590 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 98 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Recent Market Consultation Summary India's Palm Oil Imports - The president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) said that due to rising festival demand and falling prices, India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year. In the 2024/25 fiscal year ending in October, total edible oil imports are expected to remain at 16 million tons, including about 9 million tons of palm oil, 4.5 million tons of soybean oil, and about 3.5 million tons of sunflower oil [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production and Exports - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons in 2025, up from 19.3 million tons last year, and palm oil exports to reach 17 million tons, up from 16.9 million tons last year [2] US Soybean and Soybean Oil Exports - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean export sales were 160,900 tons, down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net sales were 238,800 tons, and export shipments were 360,700 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 28% from the average of the previous four weeks. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean oil export sales were -600 tons, down significantly from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net export sales were 2,000 tons. US soybean oil export shipments were 3,500 tons, down 22% from the previous week and 33% from the average of the previous four weeks [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year; about 9% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 4% the same period last year; about 3% of US cotton planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 13% the same period last year [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, sales, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of methanol plants in operation for over 20 years, with the proportion of obsolete methanol plant capacity in China at 5%. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [3]. - The strong performance of coking coal has driven up the methanol futures price in the coal - related sector, and the rebound in thermal coal prices has also increased the cost of methanol production [3]. - The decline in port inventories this week exceeded expectations due to slow unloading rates. However, high overseas operating rates mean significant future arrival pressure, and some MTO plant maintenance plans have not been fulfilled. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of production cuts in late July [3]. - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, resulting in short - term low operating rates, which will gradually recover by the end of the month. Traditional downstream industries show some resilience, and inland demand remains strong, with inland plant inventories decreasing again. The inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][31][36] III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol plants (including integrated plants) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][60][61]

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

油料日报 | 2025-07-25 豆一现货成交平淡，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4224.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.17%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+76，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场贸易商心态较稳，部分地区库存见底，贸易商走货稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41。 昨日豆一期货日内宽幅震荡，国内大豆市场中，下游市场拿货意愿不强，现货买卖不活跃，大豆价格保持稳定。 销区多数加工厂仍处于限产或停机状态，对大豆原材料的采购态度谨慎，以满足自身实际需求补充库存为主，贸 易商多通过对比价格进行采购，主要维持与老客户的订单合作。当前大豆产区没有出现因天气导致减产的情况， 夏季高温使得豆制品的需求有所下降。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-25 欧央行维持利率不变，观望美欧贸易谈判进展 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月24日， 中欧峰会就进一步深化中欧关系达成重要共识。中国央行7月25日将开展4000亿元MLF操作，本月有3000亿MLF到 期，7月央行MLF净投放达到1000亿，为连续第五个月加量续作。 "反内卷"交易的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召 开钢铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温， 部分商品价格回 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment of commodities remains positive. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has improved recently, with reduced inventory. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the rising price of coking coal, the industrial silicon futures market may show a strong performance. For polysilicon, due to the expected impact of the anti - involution policy on capacity and under the influence of capital sentiment, the futures market may also run strongly [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 9560 yuan/ton and closed at 9690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.21% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract was 336274 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49776 lots, a decrease of 330 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The social inventory in major areas was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 10000 - 10200 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 10200 - 10500 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton. Downstream users purchased on demand, and the center of market transactions moved up [1]. - **Consumption - Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 12100 - 12800 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease due to an incident at a Shandong organic silicon plant. The decrease in supply and the sharp rise in weekly prices stimulated downstream enterprises' panic - buying sentiment [2]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 50025 yuan/ton and closing at 53765 yuan/ton, a 5.15% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172564 lots, and the trading volume was 1123795 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The weekly polysilicon output was 25500 tons, a 10.87% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a 0.90% increase [4]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to conduct range trading for unilateral trading; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6].