Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251125
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:13
1. Industry Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The spot egg market is expected to stabilize at a low level this week. The demand is expected to enter the peak season in December with double - holiday stocking expectations. The downward price should not be overly underestimated, while the upward space depends on market digestion and sales. The futures market is likely to bottom out and wait for the spot rebound signal. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the higher the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. For options, consider the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts, and for spreads, conduct rolling reverse arbitrage operations on near - and far - month spreads [8] 4. Summary of Each Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, with a change of 0.06 yuan/jin compared to yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract rose 0.31%. The 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3200, an opening price of 3185, a high of 3232, a low of 3181, a closing price of 3210, a rise of 10, a rise rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 255048, an open interest of 212297, and an open - interest change of 199106. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 2981, an opening price of 2980, a high of 2998, a low of 2967, a closing price of 2990, a rise of 9, a rise rate of 0.30%, a trading volume of 47534, an open interest of 130493, and an open - interest change of 3811. The 2512 contract had a previous settlement price of 2954, an opening price of 2945, a high of 2969, a low of 2929, a closing price of 2950, a fall of 4, a fall rate of - 0.14%, a trading volume of 19014, an open interest of 27794, and an open - interest change of - 2299 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the futures market, the main contract oscillated at a low level last week, and the direction was unclear. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points. Although it is close to the historical low, there are risks in going long. It is expected that the market will bottom out and wait for the spot rebound signal. For options, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; for spreads, conduct rolling reverse arbitrage operations on near - and far - month spreads [8] 4.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared to 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9][10] 4.3 Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, in the previous three weeks, the national culling volume of chickens was 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume fluctuated recently but increased slightly compared to the previous period [19] - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of chickens was 492 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 7 days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed [19]
建信期货生猪日报-20251125
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:12
Report Overview - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth until the first half of next year, and the concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October. The demand for terminal consumption has increased due to the cooling weather, but the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate mainly, while futures prices are expected to continue to be weak in the medium - to - long term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 24th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,940 lots to 381,487 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 24th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter will increase slightly until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased. The demand for terminal consumption increased due to the cooling weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased. However, the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No industry news is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit and Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [18]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg from the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [18].
建信期货股指日评-20251125
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:12
huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 11 月 24 日,万得全 A 缩量上涨,开盘后震荡回落,午后明显拉涨,尾盘再 度走弱,收涨 0.62%;沪深 300、上证 50 收盘分别下跌 0.12%、0.18%,中证 500、 中证 1000 收盘分别是上涨 0.76%、1.26%,中小盘股表现更优。期货方面,IF、 IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 1.03%、0.88%、0.68%、0.49%,表现整体弱于现货 (按收盘价计算)。 | 表1:股 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251125
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 09:12
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues to be in a weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rate have declined, the absolute output remains high. With flat shipments, weak supply - demand in downstream float glass, and no improvement in terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand, the cost provides support but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and medium - long term may be treated with rebound short - selling [8]. - For glass, the spot performance is lower than expected, supply is stable, inventory is high, and demand in the real estate market is weak. However, with the accelerating cold - repair due to declining profits, if about 5000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward space is limited. Without new market expectations, the downward trend may continue [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 24, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract rebounded slightly. The closing price was 1183 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a daily reduction of 58,280 lots [7]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand imbalance. Weekly production and operating rate are down, but absolute output is still high. Downstream float glass has weak supply - demand, and terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no improvement. Cost supports the price, but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is volatile, and medium - long term may be rebound short - selling [8]. Glass - The spot performance is lower than expected, and the impact of concentrated production line shutdowns in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory is high after the holiday, and demand in the real estate market is weak. With declining profits, cold - repair is accelerating. About 5000 tons of production lines are planned for cold - repair by the end of the year. If cold - repaired, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward trend may continue without new expectations [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][16][15]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251124
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 10:19
Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Industry**: Eggs [1] - **Date**: November 24, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for eggs weakened continuously this week and then stabilized. The egg prices in the two major producing regions of Hubei and Hunan, which led the previous rebound, have been falling since last week until mid - week. The red eggs in the north were relatively balanced in supply and demand but also weakened under the influence of the powder eggs. The national market prices stabilized on Friday, and market sentiment improved to some extent. [8] - In December, the demand for eggs will gradually enter the peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. The decline in the price of culled chickens indicates that the culling rhythm is progressing orderly. The downside of egg prices should not be overly underestimated, while the upside space depends on market digestion and sales. The trend is unclear, and egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, the main contract fluctuated at a low level this week without a clear direction. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points, close to historical lows, attracting some bottom - fishing funds. However, compared with the end of 2016 and 2019, the current spot price is lower. From the perspective of basis, although it is close to the absolute price low, there are risks in going long. The futures market is expected to bottom out and wait for the spot price to rebound. [8] - The longer the egg price remains low in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Today, the national egg prices were stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 0.75%. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the options market, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; in the spread market, conduct reverse spread rolling operations for near - and far - month spreads. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: The current egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined but remains at a historically high level for the same period. As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of egg - laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared with October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: The momentum of replenishment continues to slow down. In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume has fluctuated recently but has slightly increased overall compared with the previous period. [19] - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed. [19]
建信期货豆粕日报-20251124
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 10:19
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic futures contracts**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3021, the highest price was 3027, the lowest price was 3007, the closing price was 3012, down 1 or -0.03%, with a trading volume of 677,574 and an open interest of 1,511,379, a decrease of 37,971. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 2988, down 5 or -0.17%. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2803, down 7 or -0.25% [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data was much higher than expected, reaching a record high for a single - month [6]. Core View - The external market has exhausted its short - term bullish factors but is supported by low inventory. It may oscillate at a high level. Domestic soybean meal has a relatively solid support below but faces inventory pressure. To break through the upper resistance, it needs additional bullish factors from the external market [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the near term, the volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, and the 2026 export volume would reach 111 million tons [10].
宏观贵金属周报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 12:05
类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 美联储 12 月会议或暂停降息 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济:中国财政收入加快修复 2025 年 1-10 月份中国一般公共预算收入累积同比增长 0.82%,增速较 1-9 的 0.5%进一步提升,财政收入加快修复为中国财政政策继续发挥稳增长作用提供了 必要条件。财政收入改善的影响因素,首先是在投资和消费支持政策以及反内卷 政策指引下,今年来企业利润状况改善;其次是 2026 年中国股票市场和贵金属市 场表现活跃,相关税收显著增长;最后是税务部门加强税收征缴管理工作 ...
金融期货周报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:56
行业 金融期货周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 | 股指 | | - | 3 | - | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | | - | 10 | - | | | | | | 三、下周公开市场到期与重要经济日历一览 | - | 10 | - | | 航运指数 | - | 21 | - | | 一、市场回顾 - | 21 | - | 二、集运市场情况 - | 22 | - | | | | 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 年初以来, ...
建信期货能源化工周报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:15
行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油、沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅多晶硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...
建信期货农产品周度报告-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:15
Report Overview - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: November 21, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yulan Lan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Report's Core View - The overall international vegetable oil market is trending downward due to the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy and the weakness of crude oil futures. The three major oils show differentiated trends: palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to be weakly volatile; rapeseed oil is policy - dominated and is mainly a long - position configuration in the short term; soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400 yuan. The external market of soybean meal may fluctuate at a high level, and domestic soybean meal will adjust weakly. Egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and the egg futures market may grind the bottom. Cotton prices are in a narrow - range shock, waiting for a direction [8][9][52][53][87][109][111] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Directory Summary Oils - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Palm oil is weakly volatile and continues to hit new lows due to high production, weak exports, and high domestic inventory. Soybean oil futures rise first and then fall, with supply pressure in the long - term and a possible de - stocking rhythm in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, supported by inventory reduction. The overall international vegetable oil market is under pressure, and different oils have different trends [8][9] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all decreased weekly, and their basis also declined [10] - **Domestic Three - major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory increasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [23] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week, the soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean crushing volume increased. The import rapeseed opening rate was almost stagnant. The 2025/2026 annual soybean and rapeseed arrivals have different changes compared with the previous year [25][31] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and exports decreased. India's palm oil imports are expected to increase. Malaysia and Indonesia have different outlooks on palm oil prices and production [35][36] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC report is suspended [46] Soybean Meal - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly. The external market of US soybeans may be in a high - level shock after the USDA report, and domestic soybean meal adjusted weakly. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock and focus on the straddle double - selling strategy for options [51][52][53] - **Core Points** - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA November report adjusted the new - season US soybean data, with a decrease in planting and harvest areas, a slight decrease in the expected single - yield, and a decrease in the export item. South American soybean production is expected to remain stable. The sowing progress in different regions varies, and the weather has different impacts [54][55][56] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US soybean exports in the 25/26 season are lower than last year. The market is concerned about whether China can meet the procurement volume [61] - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans is negative. The opening rate and pressing volume of oil mills may decrease in the future. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory will change [70][71] - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of November 14, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The transaction in October was tepid, and the terminal demand is expected to be positive [76] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 20, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract increased, and it is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. The 1 - 5 spread decreased, and there is a possibility of an upward trend [82] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the quantity is at a relatively high level in the same period [85] Eggs - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The spot egg price stabilized after a decline. The futures market may grind the bottom. It is recommended to focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options and the reverse spread rolling operation for the spread [87] - **Data Summary** - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The current laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period. The replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - age egg - laying hens and egg sizes has changed [89][91] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price, egg - laying hen feed cost, and egg - laying hen chick price have different changes. The breeding profit is negative [96][98] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume has increased slightly, the culling age has advanced, and the price is at a low level in the same period [98] - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the pig price is at a low level in the same period [104] Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external market of cotton is weakly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates in a narrow range. The domestic spot market is cold, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a shock adjustment, waiting for a direction [109][110][111] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA November report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with an increase in production, consumption, and inventory [112] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of October 2, the US cotton sales and shipments in the 2025/2026 season have different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [119] - **Textile Enterprises Operation**: As of November 14, the inventory of cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth in textile enterprises has different changes, and the load index has also changed [121] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of the cotton 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [130] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the non - commercial net position of cotton decreased. As of November 20, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased [132]