Jian Xin Qi Huo
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碳市场周报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:03
Report Overview - Report Title: Carbon Market Weekly Report - Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of the carbon market, with policies aiming to expand coverage, control quota总量, and increase market vitality [9][10] - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market will gradually cover major industrial emission - intensive industries by 2027, marking a new stage in using market - based mechanisms for deep - emission reduction [10] Summary by Directory 1. Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of different trading methods were also reported [7] - In the 3rd week of November, the national carbon market quota had a high of 70.14 yuan/ton, a low of 60.02 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 65.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.48%. The total trading volume was 1169.44 million tons, and the total turnover was 701.0284 million yuan. Price expectations for November and December 2025 were also given [8] 2. Market News - The central government issued an opinion to expand the carbon market's coverage, implement quota总量 control and paid distribution, and improve market vitality [9] - China's carbon market construction aligns with the "dual - carbon" goal, and will gradually implement quota总量 control and paid distribution as the carbon - peak process advances [10] - The expansion schedule of the national carbon emissions trading market was announced, with major industrial sectors to be included by 2027, covering about 75% of CO2 emissions [10] - The "Chengdu Declaration" at the 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference called for anti - "involution" in the industry and promoted high - quality development [10]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:16
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 2,2380 yuan/ton, down 30 with a decline of 0.13%. The increase in LME zinc inventory and the reduction in domestic social inventory, along with the tight supply of domestic zinc ore and the possible decline in refined zinc production in November, support the zinc price. The market is cautious before the release of US non - farm payroll data [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of SHFE zinc (2512) closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 (-0.13%). The 2601 contract closed at 22,385 yuan/ton, down 30 (-0.13%); the 2602 contract closed at 22,405 yuan/ton, down 25 (-0.11%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed, with the open interest of 2512 decreasing by 5,690 and that of 2601 increasing by 1,982 [7]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 12,250 tons since November. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.39 million tons to 15.27 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Price Support**: Due to the reduction of domestic northern mines and the concentrated release of smelters' winter - stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. SMM estimates that the refined zinc production in November may decline slightly, which supports the zinc price [7]. - **Macro - factor**: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed internal differences, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December decreased to 32.7%. The market is cautious before the release of September non - farm payroll data [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price Range**: On November 20, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,500 - 22,585 yuan/ton, 1 zinc was 22,430 - 22,515 yuan/ton. The prices in different regions such as Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong also had their own ranges and premium/discount situations [8]. - **Premium and Discount**: In different markets, the premium or discount of zinc prices to the SMM average price, futures contracts, and Shanghai spot prices varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc had a premium to the 2512 contract, and in Tianjin, different brands had different premiums or discounts to the 2512 contract [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCBI Futures [10][12]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:15
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 数据来源:上期所、大商所网站,建信期货研究发展部 1.1 现货市场动态与技术面走势: 现货市场:11 月 20 日,主要铁矿石外盘报价环比前一交易日下调 0.2-0.7 美元/吨,青岛港主要品位铁矿石价格较前一交易日下跌 2-10 元/吨。 技术面:铁矿石 2601 合约日线 KDJ 指标走势分化,K 值、D 值继续上行,J 值继续下行;铁矿石 2601 日线 MACD 指标红柱连续 3 个交易日有所放大。 1.2 后市展望: 目前基本面上,澳巴发运有 ...
建信期货铜期货日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to spot demand and macro - factors but have limited downside in the medium term because of demand support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Copper prices rose and then fell. Overnight, the strong Q3 report of NVIDIA lifted the US stock market, improving market sentiment. However, the Fed's October meeting minutes showed most policymakers opposed a December rate cut, causing the US dollar to strengthen and copper prices to face pressure [10]. - The spot price dropped by 320 to 86,435, and the spot premium fell by 5. The social inventory increased by 0.07 million tons this week. Despite the significant decline in copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was average [10]. - The spot import loss widened to around 500, the ratio decreased, and the LME0 - 3 contango narrowed slightly to 33. The domestic warehouse receipt and bill of lading premiums remained flat, and the demand for Yangshan copper was also weak [10]. - The spot market has not effectively reduced inventory, indicating continued high - price aversion among domestic downstream users. However, medium - term demand is still optimistic. Codelco raised its 2026 Korean long - term contract price to $330/ton, an increase of $85 from 2025 [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Driven by AI, the demand for high - end PCBs has surged, bringing structural opportunities for copper - clad laminates (CCLs), a key substrate for PCBs. Some high - end CCL products are in short supply, and prices have risen. Manufacturers such as Kingboard Laminates have raised prices multiple times this year. The capacity utilization rates of Nanya New Materials and Huazheng New Materials are high, and they adjusted prices in October. Some industry manufacturers are still adjusting CCL prices in batches. The CCL product prices have not fully recovered to the 2021 level [11]. - As of H1 2025, there were 141 A - share non - ferrous metal companies, achieving an operating income of 1.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 95.363 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 36%. More than 90% of the companies were profitable in H1. As of late October 2025, the total market value of the non - ferrous metal sector was about 4.92 trillion yuan. The president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association encouraged non - ferrous metal listed companies to invest in key metals and industries [11][12].
碳酸锂期货日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:38
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell, with high capital gaming sentiment. The main contract rose by over 4% during the day, turned negative in the afternoon, and the total open interest decreased by 15,747 lots [8]. - Spot Price Changes: Spot electric carbon rose by 2,400 to 91,300, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,245, mica ore rose by 125 to 2,700, 6F rose by 4,000, electrolyte remained flat, lithium iron phosphate rose by 560 - 590, and ternary rose by 400 - 700 [8]. - Industry Fundamentals: Weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons, social inventory decreased by 2,052 tons, and the weekly destocking volume was lower than last week. Lithium iron phosphate and ternary production continued to increase. The decrease in destocking was likely due to the sharp rise in lithium prices this week. The industry fundamentals remained healthy [8]. - Future Outlook: With the futures price leading the spot price, the pressure of futures - spot convergence was a drag on the short - term rise of futures lithium prices. Short - term futures were expected to fluctuate [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Business Agreement: EVE Energy and Smoore International signed a procurement framework agreement on November 20, 2025. Smoore will continuously purchase battery cells from EVE, but the specific amount is uncertain [11]. - Industry Regulation: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the lithium iron phosphate cost index and standardizing industry development. It suggests that enterprises use the industry average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotations and submit production and operation data regularly [11]. - Mining Performance: Greenbushes lithium mine, in which TLEA (a joint - venture of IGO) holds 51%, showed strong profitability in the 2025 fiscal year, producing 1.48 million tons of spodumene concentrate, with a cash cost of 325 Australian dollars per ton, generating 1.5 billion Australian dollars in cash flow and a 66% EBITDA margin. Its third chemical plant is scheduled to be put into operation by the end of the year, increasing the annual production capacity by 500,000 tons [12]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:23
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment rush further fermented in the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to the falling - short of price increase expectations. The SCFIS index declined 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67, and shipping companies haven't formed a unified price - support force. There is a long - term price increase expectation, which may overvalue the April contract. It is advisable to focus on the positive spread trading opportunity between the February and April contracts [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: After the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified the last trading day of the February contract on Friday, the expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment rush affected the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to unmet price increase expectations. The SCFIS index dropped 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67, and shipping companies' online quotes changed little. The price increase of CMA CGM is expected to be difficult to implement, and the price increase in December fell short of expectations. However, there is a long - term price increase expectation, which may overvalue the April contract, so pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between the February and April contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From November 10 to 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with the freight rates of ocean routes showing a differentiated trend, and the comprehensive index slightly declined. In October, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, indicating a stable and progressive economic development [9]. - **European Routes**: On November 14, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in November was 25, up from the previous value, showing a recovery in market confidence in the European economic outlook. The freight rate of the Shanghai - Europe basic port market increased by 7.1% to 1417 US dollars/TEU [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship remained balanced, and the market freight rate was stable at 2029 US dollars/TEU on November 14 [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US Congress passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. It is estimated that the shutdown will reduce the US GDP in the fourth quarter by 1.5 percentage points. The freight rate of the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port markets decreased by 17.6% and 8.7% respectively to 1823 US dollars/FEU and 2600 US dollars/FEU on November 14 [10]. - **International Situation**: There are complex political and military situations in the Gaza Strip and Israel - Turkey relations, which may have an impact on the shipping market [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for European routes decreased from 1504.8 to 1357.67, a week - on - week decline of 9.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1329.71 to 1238.42, a week - on - week decline of 6.9% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Data**: The trading data of multiple contracts such as EC2512, EC2602 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - **Charts**: Include the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [13][18]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:10
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
建信期货沥青日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:10
021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:10
工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现:工业硅期货价格基本回吐昨日涨幅。Si2601 收盘价 9075 元/吨,跌幅 2.37%,成交量 574345 手,持仓量 273978 手,净减 32691 手。 现货价格:现货价格小幅上调,553#价格区间 9300-9500 元/吨,421#价格区间 9700-10050 元/吨。 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:10
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报 ...