金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/10/31 玻璃期货下跌后，多单机会何在？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 玻璃期货主力合约持续下行，10月30日单日下跌2.85%至结算价1104元，短期颓势明显，但多单决策需立 足基本面与预期博弈综合判断。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 截止到20251030，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6579万重箱，环比-82.3万重箱。 本周在市场情绪好转以及中下游业者低价备货补库下，沙河企业产销率较前期明显提升，京津唐地区厂家 出货情况不一，整体亦有好转，下游刚需采购为主，华北区域库存环比下降。周内华东整体出货情况较上 周明显好转。 现货端湖北低价已至1020-1040元/吨，期货贴水逐步收窄，短期下行空间或受成本线约束。 边际改善信号已现：成本端燃料价格旺季或上行，环保督察与"煤改气"可能扰动供应；沙河等区域产销 回暖，年底赶工与政策预期存利多想象空间。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTR ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, written by its research institute on October 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures prices have risen significantly. On October 29, the main - continuous contract closed up 3.50% to 1302 yuan, up more than 12% from the phased low [3] - Supply - side contraction is the core driving force. Domestically, environmental inspections and safety production controls have tightened, reducing production. Imported Mongolian coal has problems such as political unrest, lower production quotas, and halved customs - clearance vehicles [3] - Demand - side support is strong. Although steel mills have slight losses, they maintain a high operating rate, and the molten iron output is stable at about 240,000 tons per day. There is also an expectation of winter storage replenishment in November [3] - Coking coal futures are still at a discount to the spot, and the supply - tight pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It may show a range - bound and slightly stronger trend in the future, but the negative feedback risk caused by high steel inventories should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - Stock index futures have stood above 4000 points. The Fed will announce an interest - rate decision at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday. Pan Gongsheng advocates developing the bond market's "science and technology board" and deepening the reform of the STAR Market and the Growth Enterprise Market [7] - It is expected to have a high - level shock tomorrow [7] Group 4: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] Group 5: Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron production may decline stage - by - stage. Technically, it rebounded significantly today, and the bullish view remains unchanged [15] - There are short - term disruptions in the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be loose [16] Group 6: Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, the bottom - stabilization signal is clear, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity to go long at low levels [19] Group 7: Eggs - The存栏量 of laying hens continues to increase, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to lose 16.90 yuan per chicken. There is a short - term long - buying opportunity [22] Group 8: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not fluctuated significantly, the port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing - end mentality is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level shock [27]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - On October 28, the silver futures price dropped significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai silver falling 3.32% in a single day, settling at 11,125 yuan per kilogram. The decline was due to multiple factors, but the medium - to long - term support logic remained unchanged. Investors should be cautious about short - term volatility and consider long - term allocation opportunities [3]. - For other commodities, different trading suggestions are given based on their respective fundamentals and technical analysis [7][12][15] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Silver Futures - The significant decline in silver futures price on October 28 was a result of multiple factors, including profit - taking after a more than 70% increase in silver price this year and the forced liquidation of high - leverage ETF positions. The easing of trade tensions may also reduce the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, the global silver market has had a supply - demand gap for five consecutive years, and the core contradiction of decreasing inventory due to growing industrial demand remains [3]. - In the short term, investors should beware of volatility risks and reduce positions. In the long term, a回调 to the key support level may present a good opportunity for allocation [4]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with a doji star. Given the relevant news and market situation, it is expected to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [7]. Gold - Currently, gold has high volatility, and it is not advisable to short in the short term. It is recommended to avoid trading for now [12]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal production may decline temporarily. Technically, the price closed up today, and considering the improved sentiment in the commodity market, investors can seize the opportunity to buy on dips [15]. - In the short term, the supply is affected by long - term contract negotiations and accidents, but in the long term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [16]. Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has not changed much, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving force mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, the price closed up and broke through, showing a clear signal of bottom stabilization, so investors can buy at low prices [19]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the sufficient supply of eggs suppresses the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken. There may be short - term buying opportunities [22]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port inventory reduction is lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it is recommended to treat it as a low - level fluctuation [26].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Report Type: Paper Industry Daily Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to remain weak and operate in a low - level oscillation. The double - offset paper futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, pulp prices are stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. From January to September, the cumulative import volume increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 295200 tons. As of October 17, the port inventory was 2.074 million tons, and the port destocking was lower than expected. Downstream procurement was cautious [4]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and holding volume of the pulp index, but no specific data is provided [8]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23]. Double - Offset Paper Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, double - offset paper prices are stable. Pulp spot is facing a fierce game between high inventory and cost. Last week, the shut - down devices basically resumed production. The production inventory of double - offset paper enterprises was 1.315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. Downstream users mainly replenished orders based on rigid demand, and consumption was not significantly boosted [14]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and trading volume of the double - offset paper index, but no specific data is provided [18]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - The short - term rebound of egg futures prices is difficult to change the long - term pattern. The current price increase is a short - term phenomenon, and the medium - and long - term is still dragged down by high inventory [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected to continue high - level volatile upward movement [7]. - For gold, due to large fluctuations, it is recommended to avoid short - term long - chasing [12]. - For iron ore, there is an opportunity to buy on dips as the bottom has stabilized and commodity sentiment has improved, although long - term supply is expected to be loose [15]. - For glass, wait patiently for the right - hand signal after a period of narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For eggs, considering the current loss situation, there is a short - term long - trading opportunity despite sufficient supply [24]. - For pulp, it is expected to run weakly and be treated as low - level oscillation [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On October 27, the main contract price of eggs rose to 3327 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.18%. The price increase was a low - level rebound. The current national in - production laying hen inventory is about 1.37 billion, far exceeding the reasonable range of 1.15 - 1.2 billion. The supply surplus problem is prominent, and the medium - and long - term rebound height is limited [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching a new high of 4000 points. With the opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference and the 3.2% growth of the profits of national industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September, it is expected to continue high - level volatile upward movement [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently experiencing large fluctuations, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long - chasing [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron may decline periodically. Technically, there is an obvious bottom - stabilizing signal, and considering the improved commodity sentiment, there is an opportunity to buy on dips. In the long term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has not changed much, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. After a previous significant adjustment, it has entered a narrow - range fluctuation, and it is necessary to wait patiently for the right - hand signal [20]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of in - production laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound height. However, based on the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future, presenting a short - term long - trading opportunity [24]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has been stable with a slight increase. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port de - stocking degree is still lower than expected, and the purchasing end is cautious. It is expected to run weakly and be treated as low - level oscillation [29].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg futures prices is a short - term rebound. It is the result of short - term capital and spot price stabilization, but the long - term situation is still affected by high inventory, and the rebound height may be limited. Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to elimination data and peak - season demand fulfillment [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level next week [5]. - Gold has large fluctuations currently, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term. It is recommended to avoid risks first [10]. - For iron ore, although the terminal situation has not improved after the festival and hot metal may decline periodically, low - long opportunities can still be grasped due to the improved commodity sentiment recently [13]. - For glass, despite the afternoon decline today, it is at a relatively low level after previous adjustments, and low - long opportunities can be grasped considering the improved commodity sentiment [17]. - For eggs, although the egg supply is sufficient due to the increasing laying - hen inventory, the high loss in egg - chicken farming may bring short - term long opportunities [21]. - Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it should be treated as a low - level oscillation [25]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On October 24, the main continuous price of eggs rose to 3092 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.25%. The direct reasons for the increase are the shift of the main contract from 2511 to 2512 and the accelerated terminal sales due to low spot prices. However, the fundamental situation has not improved fundamentally, with an over - supply problem as the national laying - hen inventory is about 1.37 billion, far exceeding the reasonable range of 1.15 - 1.2 billion [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The trading volume is close to 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in this round of the market. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level next week [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold has large fluctuations currently, and short - term long - chasing is not advisable. It is recommended to avoid risks [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the festival, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal may decline periodically. Technically, it rose and then fell today, but low - long opportunities can be grasped due to the improved commodity sentiment. In the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting change is small, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. After previous adjustments, it is at a relatively low level, and low - long opportunities can be grasped considering the improved commodity sentiment [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The laying - hen inventory continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, which suppresses the price rebound. However, according to current prices and costs, egg - chicken farming will face a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken, so short - term long opportunities can be grasped [21]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has increased steadily today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing end is cautious. Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [25].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Paper Daily, dated October 24, 2025, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Double - Offset Paper Futures Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the double - offset paper price remained stable. Pulp spot faced a fierce game between high inventory and cost. The operating rate increased slightly but had limited impact on the spot. The futures price is expected to remain volatile and weak [4] Core View - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [4] Main Force Trends - The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [12] Group 3: Pulp Futures Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the pulp price increased steadily. The supply - demand fundamentals showed no obvious fluctuations. The port destocking degree was still lower than expected, and the purchasing side was cautious. Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [9] Core View - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [9] Main Force Trends - The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The increase in the live hog 2601 contract price is a game between long - term inflection point expectations and short - term fundamentals. It's a pre - pricing of future supply - demand repair rather than a direct reflection of current fundamentals. One should closely monitor the speed of capacity reduction and the pace of consumption recovery, not over - chase the rise, and treat it as a short - term long position [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. - For gold, due to its large short - term fluctuations, it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. - For iron ore, the terminal situation has not actually improved after the holiday, iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur. In the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [14][15]. - For glass, daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market is currently in a pessimistic atmosphere [18][19]. - For eggs, the inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. But considering the current price and cost, there is a short - term long opportunity [21]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Live Hog 2601 Contract - The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern, and the 2601 contract has become the focus of capital game due to its anti - decline characteristics [3]. - The upward momentum comes from three aspects: capacity reduction expectations (the elimination rate of retail investors has risen to 8% in September), policy support signals (central reserve purchase and storage), and seasonal logic (anticipation of the consumption peak season before the 2026 Spring Festival) [3]. - There are short - term pressures: the current live hog inventory is 440 million, the proportion of large - weight hogs has reached a new high this year, the spot average price is only 10.72 yuan/kg, and the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The bearish sentiment is dominant in the technical aspect, and the sustainability of the rise is to be tested [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and moved higher today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid -阳线. The trading volume increased compared with yesterday. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold has large short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur [14]. - In the short - term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident interferences on the supply side. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market has broken below important support recently, and the pessimistic atmosphere is strong [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. Based on the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future, presenting a short - term long opportunity [21]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, mainly influenced by the cost side. The processing fee remains low, leading to frequent changes in PTA plant loads, and the spot basis is running weakly. The downstream weaving start - up rate is rising slowly [2]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments. Port inventories have been accumulating since October. Although the cost pressure of oil - based production has eased, coal and natural gas prices are squeezing the coal - based and gas - based production routes. The orders in the weaving market are differentiated, and the demand for winter warm - keeping fabrics is gradually picking up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 85 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, unchanged from the previous day. There have been many maintenance and changes in devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days this week are 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous week [2]. - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long and short main forces [2]. MEG - **Market Condition**: On October 21, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 72 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side, crude oil, is oscillating downward, and coal prices are falling. The total inventory of MEG ports in East China this week is 49.3 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Trends**: The long main force has increased positions [3].